Transcript Progress 8: Peter Kent

Progress 8:
A recap
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
The next few years….
2014
Wolf Review implemented
First entry only counted for performance tables
2015
Some schools opt for Progress 8
2016
1-8 Scale used for Attainment 8 / Progress 8
New KS2 assessments (September 2016 Y7)
2017
First reformed GCSEs taken (English and mathematics)
1-9 Scale used for new GCSEs
2018
More reformed GCSEs
2021
Pupils with new KS2 assessment from 2016 are now Y11
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
What was wrong with levels of
progress and the current best 8?
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Narrow focus
Crudeness of whole levels as starting point
Proxy for attainment
Distorting effect of equivalences
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Correlation between
5A*-CEM and 3+LP
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Attainment 8
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Helpful to think of four “buckets”
– English
– Mathematics
– Ebacc
– Open (or “Other High Value”)
Point scores in each bucket, using 1 to 8 scale
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Maths bucket
Any Ebacc maths qualification viz:
• Maths GCSE
• Maths AS
• Maths level 1/2 certificates (iGCSE)
• NOT – free standing maths qualifications (can go into “other” bucket)
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Maths is doubled
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
English bucket
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English GCSE
English Language GCSE
English Literature GCSE
English AS
English level 1/2 certificates (iGCSE)
English is doubled. English Language is doubled provided Eng Lit is taken.
Best grade of En Lang and Eng Lit counts
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Ebacc bucket
Any three* from:
• Core science, additional science
• Double science
• Separate sciences (1, 2 or 3)**
• Modern/ancient languages
• History
• Geography
• Computer Science***
• NOT - English
* mindful of discounting/early entry rules
** different discounting rules from Ebacc
*** not all AOs have an approved Computing qual yet
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Following P8, how many more students
will be following 3 Ebacc subjects in your
school?
1.A lot more
2.A few more
3.No more
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Open bucket
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Any 3 “high value” qualifications:
Can use “spare” Eng/Lit here
Can use spare Ebacc
Can be 3 non-GCSEs
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Compare your school
against national for each
bucket
Be careful – the past is a
poor predictor of the future:
Many schools are likely to
change entry patterns over
the coming years
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
How will the floor be calculated?
“The minimum requirement will be set on the Progress 8 measure. This
measure will be used because it takes into account each school’s intake, and
so is the fairest way to identify an underperforming school. It rightly focuses
attention on schools which are contributing least to the development of their
pupils.”
A school is below the floor if P8 < -0.5 and significantly different from 0
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Different schools fall beneath the floor - secondary
100%
90%
80%
70%
5A*-C
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
-2
-1.5
-1
0%
-0.5
0
0.5
Progress 8 score (grades)
1
1.5
2
Should I “opt in”?
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2016 – Progress 8 becomes headline indicator for all schools
2015 opt in available (probably via tables checking site) from 23 June 2014
to June 2015)
Implications of opting in are:
– Publication
• (A8, P8, buckets (including GCSE/ voc in 4)
– Floor
– Inspection
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Opt in checklist
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Are you below the floor?
Are your “buckets” full?
Is progress generally good?
P8 will change based on system behaviour over time. Yours may go
down.
• Three non GCSEs are allowed in P8
• Morally do you think you should be held to account by a progress
measure or a threshold measure?
• ASCL surveyYes 44%
No 38%
Undecided 18%
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Is it a good thing?
• Not as bad as 5ACEM
• Recognises progress
• Recognises curriculum breadth
• Inclusive
• Floor is a function of entry
But:
• Doesn’t resonate with employers or parents
• Has all the negative characteristics of VA measures:
– Outliers
– Arcane
– Uncertainty until results are published
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Is it fair?
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Depends!
It is unbiased (by definition) based on prior attainment only
It is biased (ie mean VA is not zero) for:
– Boys
– PP
– SEN
– White British
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Discussion
Questions
1. How likely are you to opt into Progress 8? Do you feel
that you have enough information to take your decision?
2. What changes will you be making to your curriculum in
response to Progress 8?
3. Will you need to increase the number of subjects that
your students take when Progress 8 is introduced?
4. Which system would you prefer to be judged by,
Progress 8 or Levels of Progress? Do you think that
each produces the same results?
5. How will you prepare your staff for the introduction of
Progress 8?
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Grading discussionsee blog
1. Do you agree with the move towards a grading system
of 1-9? What is your view of the suggestion that the gap
between each number should be equal?
2. Do you agree that there is a severe grading issue with
modern languages? If so, how urgently does it need to be
addressed?
3. Why do decision makers see it as being acceptable for
standards to rise at KS2 but not at KS4?
4. What is your view of the way in which the reform of
curriculum, grading and accountability has been
organised? Will it produce a better system?
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know
Whilst the information provided at this event was correct to
the best of the knowledge of the presenters and
organisers, neither ASCL nor Professional Development
can accept liability if at a later date this should prove not to
be the case. Nor can they be held responsible for any
errors or any consequences resulting from its use.
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Progress 8 – Everything you need to know