Transcript ASEAN - transcend

ASEAN:
Evolution, Challenges and Prospects
Amitav Acharya
UNESCO Chair in Transnational Challenges and
Governance; and
Chair of the ASEAN Studies Center
School of International Service
American University
Three Parts
• ASEAN’s Origin and Evolution
• ASEAN’s Achievements and Limitations
• ASEAN’s Future Prospects
ASEAN’s Origins and Evolution
• Established 1967. Reasons for creation:
– No regional group in Southeast Asia before
– Conflict-resolution: Indonesia-Malaysia conflict
called Konfrontasi.
– Communist rebellions (backed by China and USSR)
against pro-Western governments in Thailand,
Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Philippines
– Superpower intervention during the Cold WarIndochina
– Economic Nationalism and underdevelopment
ASEAN Members
• 1967: Five. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,
Philippines, and Singapore
• 1984: Brunei
• 1995: Vietnam
• 1997: Myanmar and Laos
• 1999: Cambodia (ASEAN Ten)
• 2011: East Timor (?)
Characterstics of Membership
• Diverse cultures: Muslim, Buddhist, Christian, Confucian
• Divergent colonial history:
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British (Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar)
Dutch (Indonesia)
French (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos)
Spanish/American (Philippines)
Portugese (East Timor)
• Different political systems:
– Military Myanmar), communist (Vietnam, Laos), softauthoritarian (Malaysia and Singapore), stable democracy
(Indonesia), unstable democracy (Thailand and Philippines)
– parliamentary democracy, presidential democracy
‘ASEAN Way’
• Refers to the belief that to the extent possible, regional
interactions among ASEAN members and between ASEAN
and outside countries should be informal, non-legalistic,
consensus-based and inclusive.
• Relative informality of interactions
• Non-legalistic cooperation
• Consensus-based decision-making
• Inclusivity
This approach is changing now, in the face of criticism and
limitations, especially after the 1997 economic crisis
Achievements
• No major conflict among members since
founding
• Inclusive membership: Vietnam joining in
1995 key development
• Key role in the resolution of Cambodia conflict
• Engaging all the major powers of the world –
China, US, Japan, India, Russia, EU) through
dialogue and cooperation
Mixed Record
• Economic Cooperation: intra-ASEAN trade still around
25% of total trade, mechanisms for financial crisis
untested
• Persisting Intra-ASEAN Conflicts: Thailand-Cambodia,
Singapore-Malaysia, Maritime disputes
• South China Sea Dispute: China, Vietnam, Philippines,
Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan
• Transnational Threats: Environmental degradation,
Deforestation and haze problem, Piracy, Terrorism,
Drug trafficking, People Smuggling, Natural disasters
Recent Developments
• Community-Building (Bali Concord II-2003)
– ASEAN Economic Community (Free Trade and customs
Union, investment area)
– ASEAN Political-Security Community (Conflict resolution,
Cooperation against common challenges such as terrorism,
piracy, disaster management, etc)
– ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (people’s ASEAN, caring
and sharing ASEAN)
• ASEAN Charter (2008)-legal personality, consolidation
of treaties and agreements, compliance enforcement
• East Asian Summit (2005). New reigonal architecture;
Now includes US and Russia
Challenges for the Future
• Rise of China and India, a multipolar world
• Increasing burden: scope of issues, and membership, and
partnerships
• Sovereignty and non-Interference in an age of globalization and
transnational challenges
• Compliance with new rules and the Charter: National interest
version regional interest
• ASEAN’s unity and cohesion
- Can ASEAN’s centrality in Asian regional architecture be assured for
next 20 years?
-ASEAN 2030: “Wise counsel of Asia or marginalized relic of the past”