Transcript Air Quality and Health – Making the Connection – John Romley

Air Quality and Its Effects:
The California Experience
John A. Romley, Ph.D.
Research Assistant Professor
Price School of Public Policy
May 1, 2014
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Air quality has been an important story
for much of California
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Los Angeles has been the lead character
City Hall during LA’s first “smog attack” in 1943
One coping strategy for a
1955 event
City Hall on a good day in 2013
Sources: LA Times; LA Weekly
3
Effects of air quality from the perspective
of the dismal science
Quasiexperimental
evidence
Avoidance
behavior
Beyond
short-term
health effects
• Like pollution levels, the health status of individuals
varies by location, and is hard to measure
– Health effects of pollution are overstated, if sicker people live
in areas with more pollution
– Neidell (2004) analyzed changes in asthma hospitalizations in
LA zip codes as pollution varied randomly month by month…
– …and found that reductions in carbon monoxide from 1992
through 1998 reduced admissions among children by 5-14%
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Effects of air quality from the perspective
of the dismal science
Quasiexperimental
evidence
Avoidance
behavior
Beyond
short-term
health effects
• Individuals may take actions to minimize effects
– Measured health effects reflect actual exposure
– Unavoidable exposure results from unpredictable arrivals at the
LA port, and from runway idling at LAX due to system delays
(Neidell & Moretti, 2006; Schlenker & Walker, 2011)
– Such exposure leads to much more severe health effects…
…which suggests that avoidance behavior can be quite costly
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Effects of air quality from the perspective
of the dismal science
Quasiexperimental
evidence
Avoidance
behavior
Beyond
short-term
health effects
• Childhood asthma is associated with obesity in young
adults (Fletcher et al., 2010)
• 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 outdoors leads to 6%
decrease in productivity of indoor fruit packers in
northern California (Chang et al., 2014)
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California has led the United States
in clearing the air
1966:
Auto emission
standards
State and local
1st
1943:
smog
attack
1960:
Motor
Vehicle
Pollution
Control
Board
1947:
1952:
LA county
pollution Science
district of smog
known
1940s
1950s
1967:
CA Air
Resources
Board
1969:
Air
standards
set
1960s
1940s
1970:
Clean Air Act Amendments
Federal
1975:
2 way
catalytic
converter
1988:
Clean
Air
Act
1990:
Clean
fuel,
cars
1984:
Vehicle
inspections
1970s
1950s
1980s
2000:
Fresno
Asthmatic
Children’s
Environment
Study
1998:
Diesel
emissions
found
toxic
1990s
1990:
Clean Air Act Amendments
1977:
Review of
standards
required
1971:
National air standards
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The progress is striking
Sources: SCAQMD; CARB
Ozone
PM
CO reductions through 1990s saved the lives of
1,000 infants (Currie & Neidell, 2004)
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Despite this progress, air pollution remains
a significant problem for the state
Ozone non-attainment areas
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Environmental pressures grow and grow
Source: CARB
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Air quality as an element of social justice
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My work indicates that disparities in exposure
interact with other factors
Disparities in Excess-Pollution-Related Hospital Events:
All Hospital Events
50
Total Attributable
Risk
40
30
Contribution of
Disparities in
Pollution Exposure
20
10
0
Contribution of
Disparities in NonPollution Event
Rates
-10
-20
-30
Black
Hispanic
Asian /
Pacific
Islander
B
Difference (Compared to Whites) in Annual
Events per 100,000 Population
Difference (Compared to Whites) in Annual
Events per 100,000 Population
A
Dispar
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
B
Source: Hackbarth, Romley and Goldman (2011)
Disparities in Excess-Pollution-Related Hospital Events:
Cardiovascular Adm issions
D
al
al
C
Dispar
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In response, California continues to
advance the story on U.S. environmental policy
fuel
•• Diesel
Diesel fuel
movement
•• Goods
Goods movement
Portsofof
Long
Beach
•• Ports
Long
Beach
/ LA / LA
• Low emissions vehicles
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Solar power subsidies
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Heavy transport is a driver of air quality in the state
• SCAQMD (2007): In LA
basin, trucks, rail and
ships generate
– 10% of PM
– 24% of NOx
– 73% of SOx
• Perez et al. (2009):
Proximity to road traffic
causes 9% of child asthma
cases in Long Beach and
6% in Riverside
Source: CARB
– Ship emissions account for
21% of bronchitis cases
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Ongoing developments in heavy transport
• CARB adopted low-sulfur diesel standard in 2003
– Many large diesel vehicles have been mandated to install
filters, upgrade engines
• State developed a Goods Movement Action Plan over
2005 - 2007
– One key goal is to reduce diesel PM emissions by 85% by 2020
– $1 billion in funding from Proposition 1B
– Benefit-cost ratio put at anywhere from 3:1 to 8:1
• Ports of Long Beach / LA created clean air plan in 2006
– Diesel PM decreased 75% from 2005 – 2011
– Port modernization is doubling cargo capacity, with a
controversial new railyard
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Looking back, and ahead
• California has made substantial progress in improving
air quality
• Evidence of health effects at pollution levels below
current standards continues to accumulate
• Good physical and social science are needed to identify
policy options & understand their costs and benefits…
• …and good policy decisions are needed to advance the
public interest
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