Interconnectors and RES

Arnis Staltmanis

AS AUGSTSPRIEGUMA TIKLS Board member 04.07.2013 | www.ast.lv

Content

 EU Strategy  The developments of generation capacity in Baltic States  RES long term challenges  The projects in Baltic States towards 2050 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

EU milestones towards 2050

Electricity Highways 2050  Large and intermittent wind volumes in the northern Seas.

 Large-scale solar in southern Europe and possibly in northern Africa.

 The Middle East along with the developments in storing and consuming electricity and in decentralized models of electricity generation.

Towards carbon-neutral technologies in the future energy mix

10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

Drivers of Power System Evolution

   Security of supply Renewable energy integration Internal Market integration 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

Bulk power flows related to generation connection

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The developments of generation capacity in Baltic States

Case B, optimistic

12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources Hydro power (total) Biomass Solar Offshore wind Onshore wind Mixed Fuels Oil Gas Hard Coal Lignite Nuclear Power 2013 2015 2016 2020 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

14,00

The available capacity in Baltic States

Case B, optimistic

12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 2013 2015 2016 2020 The reliable available capacity is shown without market rules. System Service Reserve Outages Maintenance and Overhauls Non-Usable Capacity Reliable Available Capacity Load 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

The developments of RES in Baltic States

2013

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources 0% Nuclear Power 0%

Renewable energy sources 36%

Fossil Fuels 64%

2020

Nuclear Power 10% Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources 1%

Renewable energy sources 40%

Fossil Fuels 49% 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

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The RES long term challenges

Balancing the unpredictable renewable energy sources (RES) Wind, Sun and Biomass/Biogas.

– High surplus by 2020 expected in the Nordic countries will need to be transmitted to the Continental Europe.

Grid development may not be in time if RES targets are met as scheduled, due to internal grid reinforcement restrictions.

Uncertainties regarding the market development on the EU Russian border.

Large uncertainty regarding generator investments is a challenge for grid development.

North - South flow direction in all the Baltic Sea countries.

Changing of in the short term.

power balance in Germany is significant

Wind energy – the most challenging forecasted generation unit in grid operation

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Where renewable energy interconnects

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Performance Expectations at Various Connection Points in the Electric System

RES Connection level

Connection at Distribution (DV)

Interconnection rules

Local connection requirements

System Integration Concerns

Feeder level issues, such as power flows, protection and voltage impacts – issues related to high penetration levels

Local and System Values

Power, heat, load control, quality and reliability Connection at Transmission (HV) National Grid Codes, General requirement for generation connection Understanding how to plan and operate the transmission grid and other generation resources based on RE operating characteristics Ancillary service support to utility T&D e.g. reserve capacity, demand response, deferral of expansions, etc.

Variable energy resources displace fuel use and avoid emissions 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

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Concerns with Integrating Renewables

• •

Penetration

• Affected by utilities' existing generation mix regulating capabilities, load characteristics, resource availability, and correlations between system load and resources • • Additional systems costs imposed by variability and uncertainty may go up with increasing penetration Costs are moderate – up to 20-30% Penetration – and depend on balancing authority and market structure

Infrastructure Capacity

• Lack of transmission capacity from stranded renewable resource locations •

Variable and Uncertain Generation

• • • • • • • Solved by spatial diversity of the resource flexible conventional generation grid operations and control areas limited curtailment for extreme events load management sufficient AC interconnection capacity and at high penetrations possibly storage

Technical Concerns

Real but solvable 2012.09 | www.ast.lv

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RES Interconnection – Technical Concerns

Wind and Large Solar (Bulk System Connected Generation) • Steady state and transient stability analysis • Load/Generation Coincidence (Peak Load and Variability of Source) • Regulation Requirements • Integration with Automatic Generation Control (AGC) • Incorporation of renewable resource forecasting • Examine current operating practice and new concepts to enable high penetration; • frequency responsive (create regulating reserves) • demand side coordination

Most technical concerns at the bulk level have been solved with modern wind turbines and grid codes

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RES Interconnection – Technical Concerns

Distributed Solar and Small Wind (Distributed Generation) Issues listed above, plus • Voltage and VAR Regulation • Power Quality (Harmonics, Flicker, DC Injection) • Unintentional Islanding • Protection design and coordination (short circuit, recloser, etc.) • Equipment grounding • Load and generation imbalance • Generation interaction with controllable loads (DSM) • Storage and storage controls

Technical concerns at the distribution level have been identified, but small RES have not been fully integrated into planning and operations

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Solutions to Variable and Uncertain Generation

Wind diversity • Spatial diversity of the resource • Flexible conventional generation • Sufficient AC interconnection capacity • Grid operations and control areas • Load management • Limited curtailment for extreme events • And at high penetrations possibly storage 2012.09 | www.ast.lv

Energy Storage to Address RES Generation

Costs of More Wind Than Forecasted:

• Value of Day-Ahead contracts not realised • Day-Ahead Nominated Gas not used • Power Plant Cycling • Exports on AC interconnections

Costs of Less Wind Than Forecasted:

• Spot market electric purchases • Greater “wear & tear” costs due to more starts/stops than assumed in Retail rate design • Potential depletion of gas system pressure due to higher than expected starts/usage • Power Plant Cycling • Imports on AC interconnections 10.05.2013 | www.ast.lv

21.09.2012

Historical and Current Integration Activities Regarding Large Wind Integration Studies

• A large amount of research has looked into the technical concerns regarding integration of wind farms into the electrical grid.

• Several studies have examined 20-30% penetration • For large, diverse electric balancing areas, existing regulation and load following resources and/or markets are adequate and associated costs are low 2012.09 | www.ast.lv

Historical and Current Integration Activities Regarding Large Wind Integration Studies

21.09.2012

• Moderate cost increases may be needed to account for variability and uncertainty of wind resource (3-4% low to 7-10% high) • Largely dependent on local utility market design and resource constraints • State of the art forecasting can reduce costs • majority of the value can be obtained with current state-of the-art forecasting • additional incremental returns from increasingly accurate forecasts • Realistic studies are data intensive and require sophisticated modeling of wind resource and power system operations 2012.09 | www.ast.lv

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Needs for Distributed Renewables

• Distributed renewable interconnection technologies with advanced functionality • Integration of renewable energy with dispatchable load and storage • Electric power systems technologies, controls, and operations that enable high penetration of distributed renewable energy systems • Models for renewable energy systems that allow them to be included in the planning and analysis tools 2012.09 | www.ast.lv

The Long term challenges for transmission grid

The main objectives are:

1. increase of the security of supply; 2. increase of the competition in liberal electricity market; 3. development of the robust and reliable transmission system; 4. Baltic States integration in European power system; 5. RES integration.

External interconnectors:

 NordBalt –2016;  Estlink2 – 2014;  LitPol link – 2015 .

Internal reinforcements in 2020 (LV, LT un EE):

 EE-LV 3rd interconnection – 2020;  Kurzemes ring, LV – 2018;   Panevezis-Musa Klaipeda, LT – 2018; Harku-Sindi-Tartu, EE – 2018.

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Conclusions

Interconnectors play cruicial role in order to meet EU RES targets

• • •

In order to have maximum benefit from interconnectors: forectasting methods has to be improved; opportunities given by smart grids has to be fully utilzed; new ways of effiecient energy storage has to be developed

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2012.03.29| www.ast.lv

Thank you for attention Latvian Transmission System Operator AS AUGSTSPRIEGUMA TĪKLS Dārzciema iela 86, Rīga, LV-1073 T: (+371) 67728353 F: (+371) 67728858 [email protected]

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