Global Warming

IB syllabus: 6.1.1-6.1.7

AP Syllabus Ch 18 Video -

 http://wakeupfreakout.org/film/tippi ng.html

Syllabus Statements

       6.1.1: Describe the role of greenhouse gasses in maintaining mean global temperature.

6.1.2: Describe how human activities add to greenhouse gasses.

6.1.3: Discuss qualitatively the potential effects of increased mean global temperature 6.1.4: Discuss the feedback mechanisms that would be associated with an increase in mean global temperature 6.1.5: describe and evaluate pollution management strategies to address the issue of global warming 6.1.6: Outline the arguments surrounding global warming 6.1.7: Evaluate contrasting human perceptions of the issue of global warming

vocabulary

     Correlation Global warming Greenhouse gases Negative feedback Positive feedback

Climate Change

     Global climate change is a fact of earth’s history Prolonged periods of global cooling & global warming over past 900,000 years Glacial periods followed by warmer interglacial periods Even in stable times regional changes in climate occur on regional scale Evidence includes – historical records, tree rings, pollen, radioisotopes

Average temperature over past 900,000 years 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Thousands of years ago 200 100 Present

Temperature change over past 22,000 years 2 Agriculture established 1 0 -1 -2 -3 End of last ice age -4 Average temperature over past 10,000 years = 15 °C (59°F) -5 20,000 10,000 2,000 1,000 Years ago 200 100 Now

Temperature change over past 1,000 years 1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 Year 1800 1900 2000 2101

Average temperature over past 130 years 15.0

14.8

14.6

14.4

14.2

14.0

13.8

13.6

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000 2020

The Natural Greenhouse effect

     Balance heat moving in & out of atmosphere Keep constant moderate average temperature normal & necessary for life Greenhouse gas molecules trap energy as IR radiation and heat lower atmosphere • Gasses = water, methane & carbon dioxide • Water relatively constant, CO 2 fluctuates Really a tropospheric heating effect With natural cooling average global temp = 59 ˚F

CO

2

effects

   Past CO 2 levels determined from ice core data – analyzing content of gas bubbles trapped in different layers of glaciers CO 2 has varied historically but is peaking presently Correlation between CO temperature has been show dating back 460,000 years 2 and

380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 Carbon dioxide Temperature change End of last ice age 160 120 80 40 0 Thousands of years before present +2.5

0 –2.5

–5.0

–7.5

–10.0

Global Warming

   Since 1750, Industrial Revolution • Sharp rise in fossil fuel use, landfills  CO 2 CH 3 • Deforestation, Clear & burn grasslands  & CO 2 & N 2 O • Rice paddies, inorganic fertilizer use  N 2 O Mostly cars (700 million) & coal power plants Increased greenhouse gas from humans • Enhance natural Greenhouse effect • Raise average global temperature of atmosphere near earth’s surface  Global warming

This one is all ours - CFCs

Are we experiencing Global Warming? There is no longer a question

       CO 2 in troposphere highest in last 20 million years 20 th century hottest in last 1000 years Since 1861 average global temp has risen 0.74 +/- 0.18 ˚C Shrinking of glaciers, melting of ice caps 10 – 20 cm rise in global sea level Change of range of species, moving to poles Timing of seasons has changed

8.4

8.0

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.4

6.0

5.6

5.2

4.8

380 375 365 355 345 335 325 1970 Temperature CO 1980 2 Fossil fuels 1990 Year 2000 14.7

14.6

14.5

14.4

14.3

14.2

14.1

14.0

2005 13.9

13.8

 Evidence shows correlation not causation    Could be natural climate fluctuation Could be global warming Could be a combination of both  Remember that in all peer reviewed articles on the subject there is no question that this is a reality

Effects of Rapid Climate Change

4.

1.

Affect water availability, altering precipitation & evaporation patterns 2.

Shift areas where crops will grow 3.

Change average sea levels Alter the structure & location of the world’s biomes

Where can we see change?

    Antarctica: Surrounding ice cap holds 70% world fresh water, 90% reflective ice for cooling Pieces the size of RI, CN are breaking off Arctic: Ocean surface temp rising Greenland: 85% ice sheet coverage + closest to the equator

ºC ºF 8 4 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 Arctic Global average Projected Year

Seals

Elephant Weddell Fur

Penguins

Emperor Adélie Krill concentrations Petrels Average minimum extent of summer icepack Average maximum event of winter icepack

0 Today’s sea level 0 –130 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Years before present 50,000

If melting occurs…

–426 0 Present

Can we project future changes?

    Scientists create climate models GCM – general circulation model – represents air circulation on earths surface Also include: (1) ocean circulation, (2) air / ocean circulation, (3) solar input, (4) aerosols IPCC – International Panel on Climate Change (p 455 for results) • Still debate on severity of the issue • Agree that more research necessary to improve models

15.0

14.8

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.2

Observed Model of greenhouse gasses + aerosols + solar output 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000 2010

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Year

Models Give A Range Of Possibility

What will effect continued climate change?

     Natural & Human influenced factors will effect the future of global climate Factors may amplify current trends  positive feedback Factors may dampen current trends  negative feedback These factors could influence how fast and how much temperatures change Also effect regional differences

Feedback (Remember the time lag)

     Positive Increase Temp Melt Permafrost Increased release of methane Increase Temp more Melt more Permafrost…       Negative Increased Temp Increased evaporation in Tropics Increased snowfall in poles Increase icecap cover Increased albedo Decreased Temp

Factors Effecting Temperature

1.

2.

Solar output varies overtime • May account for up to 50% of climate change • Increase in cosmic rays may decrease temperature, decrease in CR  increase temp.

• Pollutant effects may outweigh or reverse this Ice albedo (reflectivity) feedback system • Ice, snow, sand reflect most incoming sunlight • Sea ice reflects 80%, water absorbs 80% incoming solar radiation • Positive ice albedo feedback system – increase temp  melt ice  less albedo  increase temp …

City 10 –15% Clouds 50 –55% Snow 80 –90% Grass 15 –25% Bare sand 30 –60% Oceans 5% Forest 5%

Factors Effecting Temperature II

3.

Ocean effects • Remove 29% of excess CO 2 emissions • Solubility decreases with increased temp.

• Atmospheric heat transferred into deep ocean • Ocean currents moderate global climate  fresh water influx stops motion  temperature drop will result • Sea level changes effect amount of heat and CO 2 & earth’s biome distribution • Thermal expansion of oceans possible too

Antarctica

Vertical & Horizontal Water movement in the ocean

Factors Effecting Temperature III

4.

Clouds & Water Vapor content • Warmer temp increases evaporation & cloud cover • Clouds have (1) warming effect by trapping heat (positive feedback) or (2) cooling effect by reflecting heat (negative feedback) • Depends on time of day, water content and cloud type • There is an effect but the degree is uncertain

1.

2.

Human Factors I

Air Pollution • Aerosols are condensation nuclei for clouds • Input could either amplify or dampen GW • Aerosols fall out of atmosphere & inputs are being reduced Increased CO 2 levels • Could lead to plant growth removing more CO they release it again 2 • Plants take in less as they mature, upon death • CO 2 is a greenhouse gas trapping more heat • Soils may absorb some extra CO 2

Human Factors II

3.

Greenhouse gas production • Power production, Land clearing practices, Transportation • Regional input global distribution • Lifestyle dependency on this process

What will happen

      Not a normal weather swing of a few degrees this is GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Water distribution will change Plant and animal distribution will change Ocean currents & sea level will change Extreme weather may develop – drought, floods Human health in older populations & urban areas

• Less severe winters • More precipitation in some dry areas • Less precipitation in some wet areas • Increased food production in some areas • Expanded population and range for some plant and animal species adapted to higher temperatures Potential Benefits of Global Warming

• •

Agriculture

• • • •

Shifts in food-growing areas Changes in crop yields Increased irrigation demands Increased pests, crop diseases, and weeds in warmer areas Biodiversity

• • •

Extinction of some plant and animal species Loss of habitats Disruption of aquatic life Weather Extremes Prolonged heat waves and droughts Increased flooding from more frequent, intense, and heavy rainfall in some areas Water Resources

• •

Changes in water supply Decreased water quality

• •

Increased drought Increased flooding Human Population

•

Increased deaths

•

More environmental refugees

•

Increased migration Forests

• • • •

Changes in forest composition and locations Disappearance of some forests Increased fires from drying Loss of wildlife habitat and species

• • • • • •

Sea Level and Coastal Areas Rising sea levels Flooding of low-lying islands and coastal cities Flooding of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs Beach erosion Disruption of coastal fisheries Contamination of coastal aquifiers with salt water

• • • • •

Human Health Increased deaths from heat and disease Disruption of food and water supplies Spread of tropical diseases to temperate areas Increased respiratory disease and pollen allergies Increased water pollution from coastal flooding

Effects on Distribution of Biomes

     Every 1 degree temp increase shifts climate belts up 150 meters in altitude & 100 km in latitude Ranges of warm adapted plants and animals may increase Dispersal method may effect ability of species to keep up with climate change Extinction of plants and animals that could not migrate – specialized species decrease Threaten existing wildlife reserves, parks, wetlands & coral reefs

Wetter than now Drier than now

  Global agricultural regions will change characteristics Decreased production in some areas

Present range Future range Overlap

Major urban region at risk Islands at risk

What can you do in your own life to effect local green house emissions?

Local Emissions Reductions

     Waste less energy Rely more on cleaner energy sources Choose transportation wisely Shifting to organic farming and sustainable agriculture Gradually integrate solutions to decrease global warming, air pollution, deforestation & biodiversity loss

Type of Transportation

Sports utility vehicle (1 person, 15 mpg) Average car (1 person, 21.5 mpg) Jet (U.S average occupancy) Mass transit (1/4 full) Economy car (1 person, 40 mpg) Intercity train (U.S average occupancy) Carpool (3 people, 21.5 mpg) Mass transit (3/4 full) Bike or walk 0

CO 2 emissions per mile (pounds per passenger)

1.6 (0.45 kilograms per kilometer) 1.1 (0.31 kilograms per kilometer) 0.97 (0.27 kilograms per kilometer) 0.75 (0.21 kilograms per kilometer) 0.59 (0.71 kilograms per kilometer) 0.45 (0.13 kilograms per kilometer) 0.37 (0.10 kilograms per kilometer) 0.26 (0.07 kilograms per kilometer)

Action

Drive fuel-efficient car, walk, bike, car pool, and use mass transit Use energy-efficient windows Use energy-efficient refrigerator Insulate walls and ceilings Reduce garbage by recycling and reuse Caulk and weatherstrip windows and doors Insulate hot water heater Use compact fluorescent bulbs Set water heater at no higher than (120 ° F) Wash laundry in warm or cold water Use low-flow shower head

CO 2 Reduction

9 kg (20 lbs) per gallon of gasoline saved Up to 4,500 kg (10,000 lbs) per year Up to 1,400 kg (3,000 lbs) per year Up to 900 kg (2,000 lbs) per year 450 kg (1,000 lbs) for 25% less garbage per year Up to 450 kg (1,000 lbs) per year Up to 450 kg (1,000 lbs) per year 230 kg (500 lbs) per year per bulb 230 kg (500 lbs) for each 6 ° C (10 ° F) reduction Up to 230 kg (500 lbs) per year for 2 loads a week Up to 140 kg (300 lbs) per year

Global Emissions Reduction

       Phase in output based carbon taxes & input based energy taxes Increase government subsidies for energy efficiency & renewable energy technologies Fund transfer to renewable fuels Place global & national caps on emissions levels Sell & trade emissions credits on open market Remove CO 2 from atmosphere – tree planting 1997 – Kyoto agreement

Prevention Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal) Shift from coal to natural gas Transfer energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to developing countries Improve energy efficiency Shift to renewable energy resources Reduce deforestation Limit urban spawl Slow population growth Cleanup Remove CO 2 from smokestack and vehicle Emissions Store (sequester CO 2 by planting trees) Sequester CO 2 underground Sequester CO 2 in soil Sequester CO 2 in deep ocean

The implications vary

    MEDCs Stand to lose the most economically But have the technology to change Also some of biggest polluters     LEDCs Rapidly increasing their contribution – China & India It’s their turn, why should they curb emissions Cheaper energy like coal is used – lack technology for other methods

Tree plantation

Figure 18-21

Coal Oil rig CO 2 from plant to rig Abandoned oil field Crop field CO 2 is pumped down to reservoir through abandoned oil field Switchgrass field Spent oil reservoir is used for CO 2 deposit CO 2 is pumped down from rig for deep ocean disposal = CO 2 deposit = CO 2 pumping

If its inevitable how do we prepare?

   Necessary reduction in emission is unlikely in needed time period Need widespread change in industry, energy, transportation & lifestyles We must begin to prepare for the results of not changing in time…

Waste less water Develop crops that need less water Move hazardous material storage tanks away from coast Prohibit new construction on low lying coastal areas N Stockpile 1 to 5 year supply of key foods Expand existing wildlife reserves toward poles S Connect wildlife reserves with corridors

So what’s the argument?



Realize even now there are dissenters

Based on • The complexity of the problem • The uncertainty of computer models • The percieved potential harm that will be caused economic cascade caused by doing something about it

 But remember the precautionary principle • If an action is potentially harmful it is the responsibility of the group causing the harm to prove that it is not, rather than those being harmed having to prove that they are • Better safe than sorry

Contribution to Global Total (1%) United States China Russia Japan India Germany United Kingdom Canada Italy France 6.7% 5.1% 4.1% 3.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 11.2% 25.5%

United States Canada Australia Netherlands Belgium Germany Czech Republic Russia United Kingdom France Per Capita Emissions (metric tons) 4.9% 4.9% 5.6% 3.7% 4.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1.8%

     

What about Global Dimming?

Reduction in the insolation of the earth’s surface –post 9/11 evidence Seen in 1960s-1990s Caused by increase in anthropogenic particulates like sulfate aerosols When aerosol levels started to decline in the 1990’s dimming switched to a brightening trend Can create a cooling effect to counter global warming Potential Engineering Solution for us

  You should be able to evaluate the contrasting human perceptions on this issue Explore / defend your position based on this evaluation

Remember your choices will determine our future

  http://www.nola.com/coastal/ Losing Louisiana XXX

114 Global warming potential (GWP) Field type

Conventional tillage

14

No-till cultivation Conservation reserve

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