Transcript Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue - Improvements in the Harmonized

2nd Project Workshop
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps
for the Western Balkan Countries| SfP 984374 |
Improvements and Harmonization of
Macedonian Earthquake Catalogue
Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic
BSHAP | NATO SfP 984374
Working Packages
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
WP 1: STRONG GROUND MOTION DATA BASE AND
GROUND MOTION PREDICTION MODELS
Leading Countries: Serbia, Croatia
WP Duration: 12 months
1) Examining and filtering the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue
for missing or duplicate events and fulfillment of missing
or new earthquake data;
2) Investigating the catalogue completeness and identifying
the possible existing gaps in the catalogue;
3) Unification of the magnitude scales and adding available
earthquake metadata for the present earthquakes;
4) Providing a final earthquake catalogue compatible with
international standards.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
MACEDONIA EARTHQUAKE CATALOQUE
(year 479 BC to 2005 AC) | 681 events | M = 2.9 – 7.8
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)
For testing purposes overall BSHAP (final version) catalogue was
examined in order to be defined and tested earthquake hazard
parameters. This approach allows us to utilize the historic part of
catalogue, or equivalently, the largest, historic events.
For testing purposes have
been created synthetic
catalogue for the area
<38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N>
and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg
E>, with time span 10,000
years. The synthetic data
was generated according to
assumption that catalogue
was divided into 2 parts:
extreme events and 8 subcomplete periods.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 1
Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>
Time span: 10,000 years.
Assumption: Catalogue is starting from AD 1150
The catalogue of historical events with time span -510 to 1150 was ignored
Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
(time span 10,000 years)
Mean Activity rate lambda (for Mw=4.0)
Min=0.0064; Max=0.4966
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 1
Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>
Time span: 10,000 years.
Assumption: Catalogue is starting from AD 1150
The catalogue of historical events with time span -510 to 1150 was ignored
Distribution of b-value of G-R
Min=0.50; Max=1.11
Distribution of Mmax
Min=6.55; Max=7.62
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 2
Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>
Time span: 10,000 years.
Assumption: The catalogue is starting from -510.
2 parts, extreme (the largest events, within time span -510 - 1150) and
complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010).
Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Mean Activity rate lambda (for Mw=4.0)
Min=0.0009; Max=0.3676
(time span 10,000 years)
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 2
Area: <38.0 deg N - 47.5 deg N> and <12.5 deg E- 24.5 deg E>
Time span: 10,000 years.
Assumption: The catalogue is starting from -510.
2 parts, extreme (the largest events, within time span -510 - 1150) and
complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010).
Distribution of b-value of G-R
Min=0.52; Max=1.02
Distribution of Mmax
Min=6.55; Max=7.62
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)
SUMMARY
Premises:
Area:
Catalogue start:
S. Cat. time span:
Grid:
Node radius:
<38.0 N - 47.5 N> & <12.5 E- 24.5 E>
510 BC
10,000 years
1 degree
250 km
Results in terms of:
Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue (time span 10,000 years)
Distribution of Mean Activity rate (Lambda) for Mw=4.0
Distribution of G-R b-value
Distribution of Mmax
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)
Test
Assumptions
1
Historical events 510BC to 1150AD
ignored
2
Catalogue istarts from AD 1150
Part 1: extreme (the largest events,
within time span BC510 – 1150AD
3
Lambda
G-R b-value
Mmax
(Mx=4.0)
Min
Max Min Max Min Max
0.0064 0.4966 0.50 1.11 6.55 7.62
0.0009 0.3676 0.52 1.02
6.55
7.62
Part 2: complete (8 sub complete
catalogues, until 2010AD)
Part 1: extreme (the largest events,
within time span BC510 – 1400AD
Part 2: complete (8 sub complete
catalogues, until 2010AD)
.
.
.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)
TEST 3 - Ongoing
1) Alternative division of the catalogue (longer historic
catalogue -510 - 1400 and -510 - 1830);
PLAN
1) Different mesh sizes (used 1 degree);
2) Different node radiuses (used 250 km)
3) Influence of pre and aftershocks on the seismic hazard
parameters;
4) Comparison with results obtained from the declustered
earthquake catalogue.
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue
Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)
Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013
Thank you