Transcript Inputs, Farm Technologies & Productivity
ASSOCHAM's 7th Agricultural Summit "AGRI@8%- Challenges and Way O ut“
Inputs, Farm Technologies & Productivity
Dr. K C Ravi
15th February 2013 Classification: PUBLIC
Future Agriculture Outlook
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Did you know that…?
By
2050
, global population will rise by about a third to
9 billion
people Out of which
1.7 billion
will be in India alone Calorie demand will increase by 50% 52% of India’s population is involved in Agriculture yet it contributes just
13.7%
to India’s GDP Source: FAO, World Bank statistics, Syngenta 3 Classification: PUBLIC
World Population and Environmental stresses are increasing
Climate change impact
High Medium Low Source: UNEP, Cline, Syngenta
World Stress Map
Reduction in Water and Arable Land
2030 1 hectare needs to feed 5 people 1950 1 hectare fed 2 people Developed Emerging
2011
7 billion
2050
9 billion More than 80%
of population growth happens in
emerging markets
1950
2.5 billion
The Demand for Food and Feed will
increase by 50%
from 2010 to 2050 Source: FAO, Syngenta analysis 4 Classification: PUBLIC
The grower’s world is getting increasingly complex
Value Chain Global Financial Instability
Future Farmer
Governments and Regulators Societal Pressures Input costs Environmental pressures
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Challenges facing the Indian Grower
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Growing population and food demand
By 2050 total calorie requirement will go up from 2495 to 3000. Food grain production would need to increase by 5.5 MT annually. High value foods require better infrastructure for handling, value-addition, processing, marketing. Continuing migration of people into cities, an increase in wealth and a shift towards diets rich in meat and dairy, will raise demand for high-value food commodities by > 100%
Key challenges for Input providers:
Develop technologies and management options in a deteriorating production environment. Create infrastructure and evolve institutional arrangements for production, post-harvest and marketing of high-value commodities and their value-added products.
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Growing resource constraints
Produce more with less… Land | Water | Labor
Much of India’s total arable area already in use (46%) Most remaining land has serious soil and terrain constraints Arable Land (ha) per person 0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Most populous countries have least room to expand 0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
B ra zi l R us si a In di a C hi na In do ne si a U SA M ex ic o So uth A fr ic a Zi m ba bw e
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Growing resource constraints
Produce more with less… Land | Water | Labor
Agriculture is India’s largest user of water >40%
lost to inefficient practices ●
Syngenta Solution: ‘More crop per drop’ Drip irrigation
ensures effective water and fertilizer supply.
●
Drought-tolerant seeds
help produce reliable yields even when water is scarce. ●
Weed control with herbicides
lowers tillage, improves water absorption.
●
Better Agronomy:
Hi-Pop, Mulching, Protected Cultivation help increase yield.
● New irrigation technologies can reduce water use
30% to 60%.
9 Classification: PUBLIC Source: UN-Water and FAO
Growing resource constraints
Produce more with less… Land | Water | Labor
● Farm demographics- aging population and migration to cities influence agricultural labor availability ● High-tech machines, complex production processes and strict production regulations require skilled labor. This affects capital requirements 10 Classification: PUBLIC Source: UN-Water and FAO
Indian agriculture dominated by small farmers
Landholdings declined from 2.30ha in 70s to 1.32 ha in 2000-01 If this continues, average size would be a mere 0.68 ha in 2020 and 0.32 ha in 2030 Decline causing fall in farm income. Smallholders moving to postharvest and non-farm activities
Input provider challenges:
Evolve technologies and management options for smallholders and involve them in agri-supply chain through institutional innovations 11 Classification: PUBLIC
Climate change
• By the end of this century, global temperature will increase by 1.8 to 4.0
°C. This will Impact water availability, cause floods, droughts, recession of glaciers. Dynamics of pests and diseases would be significantly altered. Which will result in greater instability in food production
Input provider challenges:
Increased adaptation and mitigation research, capacity building, changes in policies, and regional as well as global co-operation.
Syngenta
developing framework to understand environmental impacts of agriculture to increase productivity per hectare while reducing the environmental impacts. 12 Classification: PUBLIC Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World Bank
Degradation of production environment
● Soil erosion has degraded 120.72 million ha of land in India ● 8.4 million ha has soil salinity and water-logging ● Water-table & water quality deteriorating.
● Green-revolution belt exhibiting problems owing to over exploitation and mismanagement of soil-and-water resources ●
Input provider challenge:
Stop further degradation and rehabilitate degraded land and water resources cost-effectively 13 Classification: PUBLIC
Future orientation of input providers
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Research, Extension and Technology
● R&D: Need to shift from research focused on irrigated areas towards research on crops and cropping systems in the dry lands, hills, tribal and other marginal areas ● ● Private sector participation in Agriculture needs extension need to be intensified new technologies and integration of the full technology toolbox from genetics all through the various parts of chemistry 15 Classification: PUBLIC
Harnessing Science
Synergies of frontier sciences
Agricultural research needs to leverage research efficiency, better targeting of marketing environments —nano technology, ICT, remote sensing; Geographic Information System and GPS for improving technologies and identifying production and
Power of biotechnology
Time tested 1st and 2nd generation biotechnologies should be used to speed-up breeding processes, reduce investment on research for increasing yields, minimizing production risks, sustaining environment and meeting consumer preferences Science part of transgenic research should be continued and further strengthened 16 Classification: PUBLIC
Syngenta Solution: Innovating across technologies to transform the way crops are grown
Technology
Breeding
Grower ’s needs
Weed control Insect control Disease control Nematode control potential Nitrogen efficiency Drought Quality traits Labor shortage Post harvest Native traits GM traits Seed care Biological solutions Chemical solutions Crop Protection Nutrients, water Machinery Services 17 Classification: PUBLIC
Resource conservation
Full Potential of conservation agriculture, zero tillage, precision agriculture and micro-irrigation for different agro eco-regions needs to be exploited Efficient farming systems, composite farming,
INTEGRATED
crop management, nutrient management, pest management and water management should be perfected further for wider adaptability, integrated with public and private sector programmes for holistic development Enhanced participation of stakeholders and increased agro ecological literacy to be given priority in managing resources 18 Classification: PUBLIC
Agricultural diversification and the value chain
Meet demand for high-value commodities by using research to augment their production more efficiently, competitively Develop improved genotypes (varieties and hybrids) and agronomy for raising productivity in different agro-eco regions Give priority to Consumer preferred quality traits and food safety Since these are perishables, R&D focus needs be on entire value-chain from production and postharvest to value-addition, processing and marketing 19 Classification: PUBLIC
Post-harvest and value-addition:
18 to 25% losses occur in supply-chain from production to consumption.
Three-pronged strategy needed to reduce post harvest losses Small-scale processing chambers, storages with conventional and non conventional energy sources Compress supply chain by linking producers and markets; Promote processing of food commodities in production catchments to add value before being marketed 20 Classification: PUBLIC
Institutions and policies
● ● PPPs are essential Growing uncertainties call for policies and institutional mechanisms, evolving decision-making processes, mobilizing political support and improving governance of service providers ● ● Added challenge- intellectual property rights regime Effective, need-based institutions to accelerate innovations and link farmers with different stakeholders ● Innovative institutional models, pro-agricultural policies and regulatory mechanisms needed.
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