Transcript Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing
Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management in Developing Countries
John Furlow US Agency for International Development Glen Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit Breckenridge 2012
What Is USAID?
USAID at a glance
• An independent federal agency under the general policy guidance of the US Secretary of State • Operating in 100 countries with over 75 field offices • $ billions invested annually in: • • • • • Water and sanitation Agriculture Democracy & governance Economic growth & trade Environment • • • Education & training Health Humanitarian assistance
USAID’s Climate Change Program
Overall Goal: Assist countries as they develop in ways that reduce emissions while building resilience to climate change impacts Mitigation: Clean Energy:
23 countries, 11 Regions/Bureaus Reducing net GHG emissions by spurring the deployment of clean energy technologies. Priority areas: energy efficiency, low-carbon energy, clean transport, and energy sector reforms.
Sustainable Landscapes:
14 Countries, 5 Regions/Bureaus Reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from the land use sector (e.g., tropical forest destruction and degradation) and augmenting sequestration of carbon in landscapes, including building capacity to measure, report, and verify emissions reductions.
Adaptation:
19 Countries, 12 Regions/Bureaus Building capacity in vulnerable countries and communities to prepare for, reduce, or cope with negative impacts of climate change; Designing resilience into development assistance.
Adaptation portfolio 2011
Africa: Ethiopia Kenya Malawi Mali Mozambique Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Uganda East Africa Regional Southern Africa Regional West Africa Regional Asia: Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Timor-Leste Vietnam Bangladesh India Maldives Nepal Regional Mission-Asia (RDM/A) Latin America & Carib: Dominican Republic Guatemala Jamaica Peru Barbados and Eastern Caribbean South America Regional 23 countries $139 million in total
Adapting to Climate Change Impacts in Developing Countries
Challenges to Adaptation in Developing Countries
• Underlying development challenges – Education – Governance – Health – Infrastructure • Poor historical records • Poor current weather data • GCM uncertainty • Poorly adapted to current conditions • Numerous pressing needs
What Is Adaptation?
• IPCC: adaptation is “Adjustment in systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects. . .” – Process of examining and understanding vulnerabilities – Responding in some way to reduce vulnerability, build resilience
Why Adapt to Climate Change?
Ethiopia: Rainfall, Ag GDP, GDP • Developing country economies concentrated in climate sensitive sectors • ~70% of developing country populations derive income from agriculture
Weather, Climate, and Livelihoods
Alerts for East Africa
Major crisis continues; response inadequate Conditions worsen in Eastern Horn 06/07/2011 05/06/2011 Forecasts poor, crisis likely to worsen 03/15/2011 Poor Oct-Dec rainfall likely in East Africa 11/02/2010 Food security expected to deteriorate further Poor start of kiremt season in Ethiopia Forecast poor rains to deepen food insecurity 12/30/2009 08/13/2009 10/23/2008 High and rising food prices continue Food aid pipeline faces serious shortfalls Forecasts suggest increased food insecurity 08/12/2008 06/23/2008 03/31/2008
Making the Most of Adaptation Investment
Climate Stress in the Development Context
Economic drivers / Social development objectives: Tourism, Agriculture, Manufacturing Inputs or essential conditions: Natural environment, fresh water, energy, transport systems, labor, safety, governance, policy, financing, public awareness Stressors (climate, non-climate): Changes in rainfall, temperature, SLR, corruption, pollution Interventions: Information, capacity building, public awareness, freshwater management, coastal/marine management
Understanding climate vulnerability
Vulnerability: determined by exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity
•
Exposure:
Is an asset out in the elements?
– Flooding, drought, erosion, sedimentation – Agriculture is exposed, highly dependent on weather/climate •
Sensitivity:
Does exposure matter?
– Are crops suitable to a range of temperatures and precipitation profiles?
•
Adaptive Capacity:
Can you respond?
–Ag sensitivity can be reduced with irrigation, drainage, crop selection –Crop and economic diversification can reduce damages –Insurance spreads risk 15
Objective: Health, productivity, food Inputs : Infrastructure, water, ecosystems, management, information, climate, policy
Stresses
Non Climate • Poor infrastructure, maintenance • Lack of regulation • Pollution Climate • Increasing temps • Rainfall variability
Exposure
What • Infrastruct.
• Populations • Ecosystms Where • Coastal zone • Estuaries
Vulnerability factors Sensitivity
• Quality of infrastruct.
• Type of water source • Housing • Health status
Adaptive capacity
• EWS • Governance • Multiple sources • Skilled decision makers • Redundant systems
Potential impacts
• Damaged infrastructure • Lost productivity • Illness • Food insecurity
Response options
• Seasonal weather forecasts • Guidance and awareness • Restore watersheds • Redundant infrastructure • Zoning, flexible land use • Increase water storage
Climate Service Partnership
Climate Service Partnership
Growing consensus that providing climate information can help decision making International Conference on Climate Services: • NOAA, UK Met, German Climate Service, WMO, Global Framework for Climate Services, World Bank, USAID Principles: • Tailored to decision needs • Focus on key development sectors • Open access to data USAID/West Africa: Climate Adaptation Support Service for regional development
Value Chain of Climate Information
•Identify User Needs •Translate Information for users •Deliver Information •Apply Information for decision making •Robust Decisions
IRI – IFRC Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.IFRC/.Forecasts/
SERVIR: Tools to Assist Development 21
SERVIR: Disaster Response
Vulnerability and Adaptation Training Workshop 22
Climate Mapper Tool
Climate Mapper Continued
Rural Radio: RANET
Applying Weather and Climate information: Index Insurance
Four main “buckets” for risk management
Frequent, less severe events
Risk reduction Risk retention Risk transfer Post-disaster assistance
Rare, very severe events
27
Risk reduction
Irrigation Water use efficiency Drought resistant varieties Training on climate change Access to forecasts Reforestation Community monitoring systems Grain storage, seed banks
Retained Insurance Aid/Relief Losses
Managing Climate Risks: Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
Glacier Lake Hazards in Nepal • Tourism: 50% of Nepal’s GDP • Region accounts for 5% of arrivals Some Statistics on our expedition: • 35 scientists, development practitioners, journalists • ~25 porters and guides • ~12 vertical miles walked • ~75 linear miles walked • 18 days on trail
Thank You
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate