Transcript Simonovic - University of Exeter

A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
Slobodan P. Simonović
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
The University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario, Canada
Modelling
2|WEF
Conclusions
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WEF nexus
New challenges
High level of integration
High level of complexity
Common concerns
Systems approach
Modelling of the whole system
System dynamics simulation (and optimization)
Modelling of various scales
Global
Regional
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ANEMI model example
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
3|WEF
Outline
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Challenges of the new/old context
Integration
Systems approach
Example
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ANEMI model
Lessons learned
Conclusions
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Context
4|WEF
Definitions
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Nexus?
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A center point of something!
A center of various connections!
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Water, energy and food – pillars of global security, prosperity and equity
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Perspectives
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Water perspective – food and energy systems are users of resources
Food perspective – water and energy are inputs
Energy perspective – water is the input and food is the output
Vast individual areas
Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Context
5|WEF
Challenges
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Water-Energy-Food common concerns
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Growing population
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Mitigation – energy
Adaptation – land and water
Management
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Poverty
Health
Climate change
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Access to services
Environmental impacts
Price volatility
Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency
Study of the whole complex system
Understanding interactions – it is all about feedbacks
Scale
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1.4 billion people without access to electricity
3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating
900 million people without access to safe drinking water
2.6 billion do not have sanitation
900 million people are chronically hungry
2 billion people lack food security
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
7|WEF
Systems approach
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Consideration of all three areas together
Systems view
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Complexity
Whole system approach
Difficult to translate into government policy making processes
System structure
Feedbacks
System behavior
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
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Example ANEMI
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NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 – 2007) ANEMI ver 1
NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 – 2011) ANEMI ver 2
Project objectives
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To develop system dynamics-based model of society-biosphere-climate
system
To provide support for communication between the science and policy
communities.
To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and
environmental sustainability through the model outputs.
Interdisciplinary team
Systems modelling – engineering
Climate policy – geography and political science
Economics – economics
Partners
Environment Canada
Natural Resources Canada
Department of Finance
Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Department of Agriculture
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
9|WEF
Example ANEMI
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Selection of the methodological approach
First workshop
ANEMI model development
Structure
Sectors
Preliminary results
Identification of key issues
Communication with the project
collaborators
Selection of simulation scenarios
Second workshop
ANEMI model expansion
Economy-energy integration
Model regionalization
Model use
Scenario analyses
Model limitations
Third workshop
Model transfer
Future work
Water stress Effects: Canada
0.28
Water Stress Effects (dimensionless)
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0.26
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Base Condition
3 degree with transfer
2 degree
4 degree
2 degree with transfer
4 degree with transfer
3 degree
0.20
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
2020
2040
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2060
Slobodan
P. 2080
Simonović2100
Time (Year)
Modelling
10| WEF
Example ANEMI
Land Use
Emissions
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Carbon
Atmospheric
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CO2
Emission
Arable Land +
Index
Food
Industrial
Production
emission
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Temperature
Per capita
Agricultural
food
allocation
Consumption
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and Labour
Energy-Economy
Temperature
Pollution
Index
Land Use
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Clearing
and
Burning
Water use
efficiency
Fertility
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Water
Stress
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Water Demand
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Wastewater
Reuse
Wastewater
Treatment
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Water
Consumption
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Water
Stress
Surface Flow
Carbon cycle
2.
Climate
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Water Use
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Water Quality
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Surface Flow
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Population
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Land Use
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Food Production
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Energy-Economy
Climate
Water use Intensity
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Population
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GDP
per
capita
1.
Water Quality
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Wastewater
Treatment and
Reuse
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Temperature
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
11| WEF
Example ANEMI – Stock and flow diagrams
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
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Example ANEMI - Equations
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Available water resources
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Two stocks (oceans and land surface)
Flows (evaporation, evapotranspiration, advection, precipitation,
snow and ice melt, percolation, ocean runoff)
AM   E M  Adv  PO   dt
AL    Adv  ET  PR  PS   dt
LS   PR  ET  SF  GP   dt
O   SF  GD  PO  M  E M   dt
GS   GP  GD   dt
IS   PS  M   dt
EM  EM 0  T feedback
Adv  Adv0  1   adv / 100
PO  PO 0
AM
AM 0
PR  PL  PS  Cwl
GP  GP0  LS
GD  GD0  GS
LS 0
GS0
 C gw
 GW
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
13| WEF
Example ANEMI – Simulation & optimization
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Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
14| WEF
Example ANEMI – global and regional
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Global model
Regional model – Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW)
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
15| WEF
Example ANEMI – policy scenarios
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Policy communication process
Set of interviews
Identification of policy questions by the research team
Identification of scenarios
Initial set of scenarios
Carbon pricing
Economic growth rate
Water pricing
North American water stress
Irrigation
Energy subsidies and pricing
Land use change
Final choice
Carbon tax
Increased water use
Food production increase
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
16| WEF
Example ANEMI – Carbon tax scenario (global)
GDP
Energy Used for Electricity Production
500
5
Base
4
With Tax
400
GDP (trillion $)
1011 GJ
6
3
2
With Tax
Base
300
200
100
1
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
2060
2080
0
1980
2100
2000
2060
2080
2100
Global Population
14
600
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With Tax
Base
Population (Billion)
CO2 concentration (ppm)
2040
Time
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
550
2020
500
450
400
12
With Tax
11
Base
10
9
8
7
6
350
5
300
1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
2060
2080
2100
4
1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
Exeter, 2012
2060
2080
Slobodan
P. Simonović
2100
Modelling
17| WEF
Example ANEMI – Increased water use scenario (global)
Available Surface Water
Water Stress
15900
Water use increase
Base
Water Stress (dimensionless)
Surface water (km^3)
15800
0.70
15700
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
0.65
0.60
0.55
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
1980
2100
Water use increase
Base
2000
2020
Time
Food Production
2080
2100
Global Population
13
Water use increase
Base
12
Population (Billion)
Food(trillion kilocalorie /yr)
2060
14
20000
16000
2040
Time
12000
8000
4000
Water use increase
Base
11
10
9
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6
5
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
2060
2080
2100
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1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
Exeter, 2080
2012
2060
2100
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
18| WEF
Example ANEMI – Increased food production scenario (global)
Available Surface Water
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
15900
CO2 concentration (ppm)
15700
Increase in food production
Base
15600
15500
15400
15300
15200
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
Increase in food production
Base
550
500
450
400
350
300
1980
2100
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Time
Time
Global Population
14
Population (Billion)
Surface water (km^3)
15800
600
13
Increase in food production
12
Base
11
10
9
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7
6
5
4
1980
2000
2020
2040
Time
2060
2080
2100
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
19| WEF
Example ANEMI – conclusions
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WEF nexus
New challenges
High level of integration
High level of complexity
Common concerns
Systems approach
Modelling of the whole system
System dynamics simulation (and optimization)
Modelling of various scales
Global
Regional
….
ANEMI model example
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović
Modelling
20| WEF
Resources
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Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006). “Are we modeling impacts of climate change
properly?”, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433.
Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics
Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources
Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-77142712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8.
Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010). “ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of
Global Change”, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change,
11(2/3):127-161.
M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated
System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy-Economy-Climate
System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent
Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario,
Canada, 211 pagesISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3.
Davise, E.G.R. and S.P. Simonovic (2011). “(2011) “Water Resources and Integrated Assessment
Modeling – the ANEMI Model”, Advances in Water Resources (available online: 18 February
2011), 34:684-700.
www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids
Exeter, 2012
Slobodan P. Simonović