Transcript View Slides - FutureAdvisor Blog

Personal Finance for
Engineers
…Keep coding, our algorithm has it under control!
Wi-Fi Name: FutureAdvisor Guest
Password:
Would you rather….
Have 3.5 million
dollars up front?
or
Start with a penny
and have your
balance double every
day for one month?
Who I am
Where my approach/advice comes from
Who I’m not (Disclaimer)
Although I have a passion for these topics, the views expressed
are not intended to serve as a forecast, a guarantee of future
results, investment recommendations or an offer to buy or sell
securities. This should not be interpreted as tax advice and
please consult your personal tax advisors if you have any
questions.
Housekeeping
Topics
 Behavioral Finance
 Understanding your current situation
 Credit Scores
 Retirement, the time value of money,
& 401k / 403b
 Investing 101
 Savings accounts & fees
 Love & Money
 Home ownership, mortgages, refinancing, & renting
 Tax strategy
 Life insurance / Health Insurance
 Tactical next steps
Happiness
Happiness & Wealth
Wealth
Why we need an automatic plan…
 People are not rational with financial decisions (susceptible
to framing, prospect theory, anchoring, choice architecture, & the default option)
 Study: the more often you check your portfolio the worse you do
 We don’t like losing! (Prospect Theory) (DMR)
 Commitment devices!
 Google’s anchoring experiment (3% increase)
Why we need an automatic plan (cont.)
 “Save More Tomorrow” (12% vs 4%)
 Allocation decisions & 1/n:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Fund A: Stocks
Fund B: Bonds
Fund A: Stocks
Fund B: ½ Bonds ½ Stocks
Fund A: ½ Bonds ½ Stocks
Fund B: Bonds
54% allocation to stocks
73% allocation to stocks
35% allocation to stocks
Prior to the talk
20 mins - capture your “Net Worth” (all assets & debts)
Use Mint.com; connect banking & investment accounts, student/car
loans
 Include property (homes & cars)
 Homes: zillow.com
 Cars: edmunds.com
10 mins - understand your credit score
 Signup for CreditKarma
 Pull a free credit report from annualcreditreport.com; Experian in
Jan, TransUnion in Apr, Equifax in Aug
15 mins – analyze your current investments and get free
advice:
www.FutureAdvisor.com
(optional) 30 mins - create a spending plan (aka budget)
 Can be in Mint or even Excel
 Savings must be a part of your plan
Understanding your current
situation
 Check Mint often
 Spend < make
 Save xx% of your income
 “Pay yourself first” – schedule savings
 Debts
 Credit Cards & student loans
 BT offers
 Understand your current allocation & fees
“I’ll worry about retirement later…”
 Time Value of Money is HUGE!
 Frick & Frack brothers
 The “Rule of 72”
 $$ saved from 25-35 > $$ saved 35
on
 Everyone should have a (ROTH) IRA
& 401k!
 Are you on-track?
 ~75% of ending salary per year
 1x by 35, 3x by 45, 5x by 55
See handout 
Retirement Accounts
IRA
401(k) / 403(b)
• 2014 Limit: $5,500
• 2014 Limit: $17,500
• No matching
• May get matching
• Hold at any institution
• Hold at company’s chosen firm
• Thousands of investment options
• Limited choices
• Only contribute cash
• Only contribute from payroll
• Income limits
• Different for Roth vs Trad
• No income limits
• May get a Roth option
• Jan 1 – Apr 15 (of following year)
open period
• Jan 1 – Dec 31 open period
Uncle Sam will always get paid
Roth
• After-tax contributions (pay tax
now)
Traditional
• Pre-tax contributions (get a tax
break now)
•
• Earnings grow tax-free
• Roth IRA’s have no RMD’s
•
•
$120k salary, contribute max
amount of $17,500
Taxable income now $102,500
28% x $17,500 = $4,900
• Roth IRA income limit: < $114k
• Taxed on the way out
• “Backdoor Roth” option
• Traditional IRA’s have RMD’s
• Really depends on tax bracket now vs. retirement
• Beliefs on long-term tax brackets / code / law
• Solution: have some in each
Investing 101 & active vs. passive

Stocks, Mutual Funds, ETF’s, Bonds

Write down your financial principles / guidelines

20-25% for “fun” if you must

Active vs. Passive Investing:
research shows ~80-90% of
active funds underperform their
benchmark

8,000  2,000  500  125

20% most actively traded
accounts performed much worse
-men worse than women

Past fund performance has very little predictive power to future performance!

In fact, expense ratios are the best predictor
Expense Ratios (the enemy)
 Industry average (0.80%  2.50%)
 Low cost options (0.06%  0.50%)
 Get angry…it’s your money!
 Use the calculator
 Why rollover an old 401k

“It is difficult to get a man to
understand something, when
his salary depends on his not
understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair
Asset allocation & rebalancing
 With proper allocation, you should reduce risk (volatility)
and outperform the S&P 500

Rebalancing: meeting long-term policy
target weights

Use it as a disciplined way of buying low
and selling high

“..shunning the loved & embracing the
unloved. Most people do the opposite.”
(Swensen)

Example: 1990-2012 portfolio: +0.5%
difference in return, -2% difference in
volatility
My target allocation:
Balancing w/ Equity
 Being compensated w/ equity is normal (& good!)
 Minimize your exposure to one company
 Be aware it correlates with job, house, life!
 EPP (Stock Plans) – be careful
 Don’t hold it in your 401k too!
 How to proxy it in the algorithm
Precedence of Saving
1. Matching 401(k) or 403(b) – Max it!
2. Emergency fund (~6-9 months)
3. Pay down debt(s)
4. Roth IRA / Roth 401(k) or TSP
5. Taxable account
Invest in yourself too!
Automated Portfolio Management
Single optimization model for multiple
trading scenarios
● Rebalance
● Invest new cash
● Tax loss harvesting
● Generate cash for withdrawals
Runs nightly on every user’s portfolio
Problem formulated as an Integer Linear
Program
Solved with GNU Linear Programming
(GLPK) in a fraction of a second
Problem Formulation
Maximize diversification and
Minimize fees, tax inefficiency, number of
trades
Subject to:
● No small trades (e.g. don’t sell $30 of a
fund)
● No small leftover positions (e.g. don’t sell
$970 of a $1,000 holding)
● Only buy pre-selected best investments
● Don’t sell recently purchased mutual funds
● Avoid frequent trading fees
● Do not realize excessive capital gains
● Invest cash
Home ownership & mortgages
 Up to a $300/month because of credit score
 Real estate is a key component
 Consider NOT holding your mortgage with the same
bank as your investments
 Typically 20% down, qualify for a home 3x your annual
gross income
 Closing costs, points
 Refinancing
 Being a landlord can be tough!
Rent
 Rent : Income < 30% (rule of 36)
 Impact in high-rent markets (SF / NYC)
 Have rental package ready
 Credit pull
 Ask for a copy of credit report
 Security deposit & interest
 Zillow’s “zestimate”
Tax strategy
 Look for ways to reduce your taxes
 Traditional TSP/ 401k / IRA
 Mortgage interest (& property management fees)
 Education expenses
 Consider capital gains (realize gains if you ever find yourself in the 10
or 15% tax bracket. 0% long term gains)
 IRA conversions
 Donate to charity with
appreciated stock
 Hire a professional – taxes
are “grey” – ask questions!
Other random advice…
 Never go without health insurance!
 “Exotic” or “alternative” asset classes
 Careful with your contracts
 Always look for discounts

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Cell phone bills (15%-20%)
AAA, movies, restaurants, museums, parks
Driving habits
Avoid buying a new car
 Remember: smart investing
is not very exciting, but it is
very rewarding!
 Fatwallet Cash Back
 Company stock plans
Tactical next steps
 Automate your savings (pay yourself first)
“Hack human biases”
 Open a (ROTH) IRA
 Enroll in your company’s 401k
 Stick to low-cost index funds
 Help a friend (ER) or 19 yr
old cousin
 Don’t be over-weighted in your
company!
 Don’t let inaction win!
Student loans vs. saving
 Paying down student loans vs. saving for retirement
 Max matching contributions
 Consider interest rates
loan rate: <2%  Invest
>10%  pay down
2%-10%  calculate



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Both are urgent!
Save some to build the habit
Consider tax deduction
Windows are closed for good!
 Grandma’s inheritance
My favorite personal
finance resources
 Fatwallet Finance Forums
 Bogleheads
 Blogs: Mr. Money Mustache, Oblivious Investor
 Networth IQ
| Investopedia
*Bonus Material*
 Tax Loss Harvesting
 the Credit Card game
Questions?
 What is FutureAdvisor?
 Free product – analysis & advice
 Premium product – does it all for you + Tax-Loss Harvesting – for
0.5%
 How do you differ from the competition?
 We are holistic – they are not!
 Where you have to hold your $$
 Why would I pay 0.5% for this service?
 Because it’s 1/2 to 1/3 the price of a traditional advisor
 Because it will actually get done! (80% fact)
 What funds do you use & are there commissions?
 Sign up for a FREE account for a diagnosis!
www.FutureAdvisor.com