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CSP Technology Selection Kuno Schallenberg [email protected] +49 6101 55 1886 26 August 2013 Lahmeyer International GmbH Engineering and Consulting Services Energy Division; Business Unit Renewables and Economics Lahmeyer LahmeyerInternational International2013 2013 Company Data Lahmeyer Group: Foundation: Headquarter: Employees (2012): Turnover (2012): Sites: Projects: Activity: Fields (Group): 12 Affiliated Consolidated Companies 1966 Bad Vilbel, Germany 1560 (Group) 157 million Euro (Group) Company Sites and Subsidiaries in 21 Countries In 165 Countries Technical and economic planning and consulting services Energy Lahmeyer International 2013 Hydropower & Water Resources Water Supply & Sanitation Building & Transportation 2 Key Data Business Unit Renewables and Economics (BU2) Lahmeyer History in Renewables: Scope BU2: Employees (2012): Turnover (2012): Projects: Activity: working in hydropower business since 50 years, in new and renewable energy business since 25 years all non-traditional renewable energies: solar, wind, biomass&waste, geothermal energy 59 12 million Euro In more than 90 Countries Technical and economic planning and consulting services Solar Lahmeyer International 2013 Wind Biomass & Waste Geothermal Energy 3 Range of Services Project Management and Quality Assurance Market Analyses, Energy Economic Studies Contract Management Operation and Maintenance Management Planning, Tendering and Purchasing Feasibility Studies Detailed Design Defects Liability Management Design Review Due Diligence Construction and Erection Supervision Commissioning Conceptual Planning Rehabilitation Training for Design, Project Management and Operation Pre-Investment Phase Option: Contract Award EPC Lahmeyer International 2013 Implementation Phase Betriebsphase Operation Phase Start of Operation 4 General Process Diagram CSP Plant Fuel Solar Field Concentrated Reflector Solar Radiation Absorber Thermal Energy Storage Thermal Energy Auxiliary Input Emissions Thermodynamic Process Kinetic Energy Generator Fuel Inputs Power Block Thermal Energy Storage Solar Field Technologies Lahmeyer International 2013 Parabolic Trough (PT) Tower (T) Fresnel (F) Dish (D) 5 Possibilities for CSP Integration in Conventional Plants Selective Catalytic Reduction Economizer Secondary Air Steam Gen. Desulphurisation Superheater HPT LPT G Reheater Feedwater Heater Lahmeyer International 2013 Deaerator Feedwater Heater 6 Annual solar to electric efficiency vs. Technical maturity Annual Solar to Electric Efficiency [%] 30 Air Combined Cycle 25 20 Helium Supercritical 15 Superheated Steam Molten Salt Brayton Cycle Superheated Steam Molten Salt Air Rankine Cycle Oil Saturated Steam 10 Superheated Steam Saturated Steam Demonstration Industrial 5 0 Concept Laboratory Field R&D Maturity Lahmeyer International 2013 7 Site Sensitive Conditions Parabolic Trough (PT) Tower (T) Fresnel (F) Dish (D) Site Shape/Slope - + + + Wind Speed - - + - Modularity - - + + Water Consumption - - - + Financing + +/- - - Lahmeyer International 2013 8 High Risk Components/Characteristics Parabolic Trough (PT) • • • End hoses and ball joints Steam generator Limited cost reduction possibilities Lahmeyer International 2013 Tower (T) • • Receiver functionality and longevity Heliostat Control System Fresnel (F) • • Limited storage options Steam control during transient conditions Dish (D) • • • Leakage of working fluid from Sterling Engine Optics Limited and unproven storage options 9 Potential Risk Categories (Examples) • Solar Collectors/Field • Solar Absorbers/Receiver/Engine • Steam Generator • Steam Turbine and Generator • Thermal Energy Storage • Plant Control Systems • Performance Simulation/Model • Construction • Geotechnical Lahmeyer International 2013 10 Technology Risks (Examples) Risk Causes Mitigation Reduced availability • multiple technical failures • performance guarantees Component failures • • adverse environmental conditions poor maintenance • • • • • • accredited suppliers sufficient warranties on key components regular maintenance process monitoring spare part management supplier audits Interruptions • component breakdown • business interruption insurance Weak O&M quality • inexperienced contractors • verify availability and experience of O&M contractor assign experienced contractors conclude guarantees care for acceptance trial runs insure operational risks • • • • • Lahmeyer International 2013 11 LCOE Estimations • Parabolic Trough – 200-330 USD/MWh • Tower – 160-270 USD/MWh Source (Trough) IEA 2010a Fichtner 2010 India Morocco Kutscher 2010 Hinkley 2011 AT Kearney 2010 (Tower) Fichtner 2010 India Morocco Kolb 2010 Hinkley 2011 AT Kearney 2010 2011 [USD/MWh] Low High 200 295 220 240 330 360 220 230 220 210 230 320 185 270 220 160 210 230 202 280 220 170 320 1: dr = Discount Rate Source: IEA-ETSAP and IRENA Technology Brief E10 – January 2013 Lahmeyer International 2013 2020 [USD/MWh] Low High 100 140 100 130 130 80 160 130 110 Notes 10% dr1 S. Africa, 8% dr wet/dry cooling wet/dry cooling United States Australia, 7% dr 160 60 S. Africa, 8% dr wet/dry cooling wet/dry cooling United States Australia, 7% dr 160 12 Cost Uncertainty Level Source: World Bank, ESMAP, Cost Drivers Overview, 2010 Parabolic Trough (PT) Tower (T) Fresnel (F) Dish (D) 15% 20% >30% >30% Lahmeyer International 2013 13 Cost Comparison • Cost is a sensitive issue, and an important one • Influencing factors on cost of CSP plants – Competitive situation of component suppliers (e.g. oligopoly) – Competitive situation of markets (e.g. generous Spanish CSP-tariffs) – Risk evaluation (e.g. new technologies, countries, companies’ infrastructure) – Irradiation influences energy yield and hence LEC Lahmeyer International 2013 14 Bankability HIGH Parabolic Trough Solar Tower Perceived Risk Linear Fresnel Dish Sterling LOW LOW Lahmeyer International 2013 Bankability HIGH 15 Market Status of CSP Technologies Source: CSP Today 3,000 Capacity [MW] 2,500 2,000 Parabolic Trough 1,500 Tower Fresnel 1,000 Dish 500 0 Operation Construction Development Planning Project Phase Lahmeyer International 2013 16 Thank you for your Attention Questions? 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