Transcript No Slide Title

Recent Experience of the United States International Trade Commission:
Caseload trends and the effects of the economic downturn
Shara L. Aranoff
Chairman
U.S. International Trade Commission
2009 Seoul International Forum on Trade Remedies
Korea Trade Commission
July 3, 2009
Disclaimer
• The comments I’m making today are my
own.
• They should not be construed as
representing the views of the USITC or the
United States Government.
2
Investigative functions of the ITC
• Conduct import injury investigations in
antidumping, countervailing duty and
safeguards cases (Dept. of Commerce
determines dumping margin)
• Oversee the Section 337 process regarding
intellectual property rights
• Conduct studies on trade issues
3
Largest U.S. trading partners, 2008
(value of two-way trade in goods)
Canada
$ 596 billion
China
$ 409
Mexico
$ 368
Japan
$ 206
Germany
$ 151
United Kingdom
$ 112
Korea
$ 81
4
Countries against which the United
States has the most AD/CVD
orders
China
90
India
22
Japan
20
Korea
20
Taiwan
16
Italy/Brazil
14
5
2.0
2,500
Value of total U.S.
imports (millions)
Share of trade under
AD/CVD order
(percent)
1,500
1.0
1,000
millions of dollars
2,000
1.5
0.5
500
20
08
20
04
20
00
19
96
19
92
19
88
0
19
84
0.0
19
80
Share of U.S. imports under AD/CVD order (percent)
A small share of U.S. imports is under
AD/CVD orders
Source: USITC
6
400
1.2
Share of trade under
AD/CVD order (percent)
350
Value of U.S. imports
from China (millions)
300
0.8
250
200
0.6
150
0.4
millions of dollars
1.0
100
0.2
50
0
20
08
20
04
20
00
19
96
19
92
19
88
19
84
0.0
19
80
Share of U.S. imports from China under AD/CVD order
(percent)
A small share of Chinese imports is
under AD/CVD orders
Source: USITC
7
Countries imposing the most
AD/CVD orders against U.S. exports
China
16
Mexico
13
India
12
Brazil
7
Canada
5
EU/So. Africa
4
8
Worldwide AD Orders (as of 12/31/08)
Antidumping Petitioner
Antidumping Subject
USA
249
China
329
India
178
Korea
85
European Union
128
Taiwan
74
Turkey
107
Japan
64
China
98
USA
68
Korea (11th)
33
India
54
9
Worldwide CVD Orders (as of 12/31/08)
CVD Petitioner
USA
European Union
Canada
South Africa
Mexico
Korea
CVD Subject
37
16
10
3
2
0
India
China
Brazil
Indonesia
Korea
Italy
20
11
4
4
4
3
10
U.S. sectors with the most AD/CVD
orders in place (as of 6/15/09)
Iron and steel
141
Chemicals
51
Miscellaneous manufactures
45
Agricultural products
29
Non-ferrous minerals and metals
27
11
AD/CVD case filings, 1980 - 2008
Title VII case filings at USITC, 1980-2008
200
180
Recession of 1981-82
Recession
of 1990-91
Recession of 2001
140
Recession of 2008
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Number of cases
160
Cases filed
Affirmative
Negative
Terminated
12
Current AD/CVD caseload (as of
June 15, 2009)
Preliminary phase investigations
6
Final phase investigations
6
Full sunset reviews
11
Safeguard investigations
1
Total active investigations
24
13
U.S. AD/CVD investigations and
orders involving Korean firms
Final phase investigations
1
Full sunset reviews
1
Orders involving steel products
15
Total orders (on 16 products)
20
14
U.S. AD/CVD comparison:
Korea vs. China
Korea:
2 active investigations; 20 orders in place
China: 12 active investigations; 90 orders in place
15
Appeals and dispute settlements
of USITC AD/CVD determinations
• First appeal is to the Court of International
Trade in New York (roughly 40 percent of
decisions get appealed to the USCIT)
• Second level of appeal is to the Court of
Appeals for the Federal Circuit in WDC
• WTO or NAFTA dispute settlement also
may be options in some cases
16
Appeals and dispute settlements
of USITC AD/CVD determinations
• 13 appeals pending at the USCIT
• 5 appeals pending at the Federal Circuit
• 2 disputes pending before a NAFTA panel
• No dispute pending before the WTO
17
Intellectual property investigations
(section 337)
• Used to address imports that infringe U.S.
patents, copyrights or trademarks
• Cases are tried by administrative law judges
(ALJs); the Commission reviews their
determinations
• About 40-50 percent of the cases settle
prior to the conclusion of litigation
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About section 337
• If a violation is found, the remedy could be:
• an exclusion order, under which Customs
would prevent the import of infringing
goods; and/or
• a cease and desist order, which would
prevent named respondents from selling
inventories of infringing goods, etc.
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About section 337
• The Commission intends to finish all Sec.
337 investigations within 12-15 months
• Usage of the Sec. 337 process has been
rising
• The ongoing increase in workload may
make the short timeframe infeasible
• Sec. 337 process requires more resources
20
Number of new Sec. 337 cases,
and those involving Korea
Fiscal Year
Total
Korea
2003
19
1
2004
27
3
2005
25
3
2006
34
6
2007
31
5
2008
43
8
21
Sec. 337 activity involving Korea
• 13 investigations of products from Korea, all
involving allegations of patent infringement
• 3 investigations in which Korea is the
complainant (1 by LG Electronics, 2 by Samsung)
• Korea is the most active foreign user of sec. 337.
• Samsung has been, and continues to be, a respondent
in some patent infringement cases, and a
complainant in others.
22
Litigation involving Sec. 337
determinations
• 2005: 15 appeals pending
• 2006: 9 appeals pending
• 2007: 34 appeals pending
• 2008: 21 appeals pending
23
Economic downturn, patent filings,
and patent litigation
• Data from the Patent and Trademark Office show that
original utility patent application filings have slowed in
FY2009.
• Yet patent infringement cases at the ITC are at an all
time high, 43 new cases filed in 2008.
• Intellectual property is one of the most important
categories of assets held by many firms.
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Industry and economic
investigations at the USITC
• Analysis of trade and competitiveness
issues, including section 332 reports
• Independent research on various issues
(e.g., enhanced economic modeling)
• Analysis of probable economic effects of
proposed trade agreements
• Currently 15 active investigations
25
Report on Korea-U.S. FTA
• Assess economy-wide and sectoral effects
of the FTA
• Delivered on Sept. 20, 2007
• Use a variety of analytical methods,
including general and partial equilibrium
models
26
Report on Korea-U.S. FTA
• Report released to the public in September of 2007
• The key finding was that both the United States and
Korea would experience modest but overall positive
economic effects from a bilateral FTA.
• The empirical analysis captured only the barriers that
could be easily measured (e.g., tariffs, tariff rate quotas)
but did not include trade barriers in services and other
nontariff barriers such as regulatory measures.
27
Historically, world trade volumes
and incomes have grown together
Growth rate of volume of world merchandise exports
and gross domestic product, 1950-2007
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-07
2001
2002
Volume of total ex ports
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
GDP
28
But recent trade volumes have
plummeted
Quarterly world export developments since 2005
(2005Q1=100, in current US dollars)
29
World trade plunged by two-thirds
over 1929-1933
30
Recent trends in international trade
Dramatic drop in world trade, and WTO forecasts at least a 10
percent decline in global export volumes for 2009
GDP contractions have been minor compared to trade
5 or 6 percent in some countries compared to 30 percent
for trade contractions.
Trade contraction due to decrease in demand and to a lesser
extent credit crunch
These effects dwarf any from trade remedies
But still not comparable to experience in the early 1930s
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Decomposing Chinese Electronics Exports to the US value increased from $22 bil to
$78 bil between ’02 and ’06 or from 31% to 39% of total US imports - potentially
substantial indirect effects on Korea
25,000
Comp.
Periperal
20,000
Computers
15,000
10,000
Elect.
Machinery
TVs, etc
Telecom
DVA
FVA
Elect.
Elements
and devices
5,000
Other comm.
Equip.
Instruments
Products, 2002 - 2006
20
02
20
05
20
03
20
06
20
03
20
06
20
04
20
04
20
02
20
05
0
20
02
20
05
20
03
20
06
Total Exports to US, Millions of dollars
Domestic and Foreign Value Added in Selected Electronic Product
Exports to the US
USITC Resources
Extensive resources are available on the USITC
website: www.usitc.gov
The USITC’s Interactive Tariff and Trade Data web
(http://dataweb.usitc.gov/) provides international trade
statistics and U.S. tariff data to the public full-time and
free of charge.
The USITC Website also includes case files and
statistics for trade remedy proceedings and extensive
economic and industry research materials.
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THE END