Transcript Census Bureau Update

Census Bureau Update
C2ER/LMI Conference
6/12/15
Ron Jarmin, PhD
Assistant Director for
Research and Methodology
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Outline
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FY16 Budget Outlook
2020 Census
ACS
Economic Statistics –
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LEHD
Business Dynamics
Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs
Modernization
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Budget Update
 FY16 House Mark
 Current Surveys &Programs: $265M. $12.9 below
President’s request and $3.6M below FY15.
 Period Censuses & Programs: $726.7M. $493.9M
below President’s request and $91.1M below
FY15.
 Assessing impacts if these levels were to hold.
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2020 Census Update
 FY15 Activities – 4 innovation areas:
 Re-engineering Address Canvassing (~$1B)
 Address Validation Test
 Optimizing Self-Response (~$.6B)
 Savannah Test (Internet / Real-time Non-ID)
 Utilizing Administrative Records (~$1.2B)
 AVT and Maricopa
 Re-engineering Field Operations (~$2.3B)
 Maricopa (new field staff structure / automated field
collection / BYOD)
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Looking ahead
 First iteration of the 2020 Census Operational
Plan is due in the fall
 Heavy focus on the four innovation areas
 Basic outline of all 35 2020 Census operational
areas
 Varying level of maturity based on work done to date
 FY16 activities very dependent on the budget
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American Community Survey
 Reducing respondent burden and improving
respondent experience
 2014 Content Review
 Decision made to drop two questions (Business or
medical office at residence and toilet)
 Retained marital history and field of degree
 Examine other data sources (e.g., admin records)
 Adaptive Design
 Planned 2016 content test
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Intended Benefits of Dissimiation Initiative
(CEDSCI)
• Cost Savings through Elimination of Duplicate Systems and Processes
• Spurring Greater Innovation
• Systematic Quality Assurance
• Improved Customer Satisfaction through Metadata Standardization
• More Efficient and Effective Work Environment
• Better Utilization of Existing Tools to Meet Customer Needs
• Greater Insights into Customer Needs
• Increased Census Brand Awareness and Acceptance
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Some Examples of High-Level Future Capabilities
(CEDSCI)
 Aggregate geographies, collapse variable categories, and
calculate Margins of Error on-the-fly.
 Combine and analyze data across surveys, censuses,
other programs, and external sources over time.
 Maximize consistency in geographies among data sets,
programs and over time, and to provide geographic tools
to users.
 Provide customizable reports, visualizations, and analysis
to users.
 Make available data, metadata, and analytic tools that
are easy for data users to understand, locate, and use.
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Initial & Planned Program Milestones (CEDSCI)
• Proof-of-Concept Phase: Present – August
2015
• Prototype development & launch (Alpha) to
inform Beta launch: September 2015-June
2016
• Beta launch to inform Production launch: July
2016-June 2017
• Phase I Production Launch: July 2017
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New developments for Economic
Data: LEHD
 National QWI
 Harmonize data to create consistent national
version of familiar QWI
 Beta release of new national statistics on
Quarterly Workforce imminent (official release in
late 2015)
 CSV files at http://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/
 Integration in QWI Explorer, LED Extraction tool soon
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New developments for Economic
Data: LEHD
 New (beta) Job to Job Flows data
 Rates of job change, by worker age, education, race &
ethnicity
 Worker separations to persistent nonemployment, by
demographics
 Hires from persistent nonemployment, by
demographics
 Origin-destination data for workers changing jobs
 Earnings and earnings change associated with job
change
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Beta Release of Job-to-Job Flows
Analysis example using National Rates – study trends in hires and separations over
time (Data available at: http://lehd.ces.census.gov/data/j2j_beta.html )
Share of Employment
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8%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
Job-changing rate, hires (J2JHireR)
Job-changing rate, separations (J2JSepR)
Hiring rate from persistent nonemployment (NEPersistR)
Separation rate to persistent nonemployment (ENPersistR)
New developments for Economic
Data: Business Dynamics
 $5M Budget increase in FY15 to support:
 Enhancements to the Business Dynamics
Statistics:
 Measures of business dynamics by new characteristics
such as innovation and trade
 Improved industry and geographic data
 Standardized production schedule for the
Longitudinal Business Database – upstream
product for BDS and firm characteristics on LEHD
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Business Dynamics of Innovating Firms:
Linking U.S. Patent Data with Administrative Data on Workers and
Businesses
David Dreisigmeyer1, Stuart Graham2 , Cheryl Grim3, Tariqul Islam3, Alan Marco4, and Javier Miranda3
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Innovation Fair
August 13, 2014
ADDX Corporation, 2 Georgia Institute of Technology, 3 U.S. Census Bureau, 4 U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
Motivation
• Innovating firms are important for
job creation and productivity
growth in the U.S. economy
• Innovative activities are hard to
measure
• Collaborative effort between the
U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S.
Patent and Trademark Office to
examine the business dynamics of
innovative firms
• New public use products
Majority of Firms Do Not Innovate,
BUT Majority of Workers
Work for Innovating Firms
Project Output (project 1.0)
Innovating Firms Create
Relatively More Jobs than
Non-Innovating Firms
Data Integration
Longitudinal
Business
Database
Longitudinal
Employer
Household
Dynamics Data
Note: Authors’ calculations on Beta Version of BDS-IF, Revisions Expected
How Innovative is that Patent?
Cluster Patents by Citations
Innovation Measures
• Rich Patent Classification based
on
• Citations
• Technologies
• Team size
• Other
• Patent Disambiguation
• Based on inventor and firm
• Matched firm-level microdata to
be made available to qualified
researchers with approved
projects in secure Census
Research Data Centers
U.S. Patent and
Trademark
Office Patent
Data
• Triangulate inventor and patent
assignee data with employment
and firm data
• Coverage: 2000 to 2011 (annual
updates)
• Matched dataset
• Firm characteristics, including
age, size, and industry
• Patent(s) assigned to the firm
• Define “innovative firms” as
those firms that either develop
or own at least one assigned
patent
• Business Dynamics Statistics Innovative Firms (BDS-IF)
• Annual statistics on innovating
firms - for example:
• Age
• Size
• Industry
• Job creation and destruction
• Job expansions and
contractions
Future Work
The graphic shows select components from
the network of patents clustered by
citations.
The plot shows annual means of three
measures of “innovativeness” of a patent:
• Team size
• Number of citations
• Herfindahl index (generality index)
The vertices are individual patents. Distance
between patents is determined from the
Jaccard distance function, which is a metric
Post-1998 measures are not shown because
that compares two sets through their
the number of citations and the Herfindahl
common elements (in this case citations):
index have right-censoring issues after 1998.
𝐴∆𝐵
𝐽𝐷 𝐴, 𝐵 =
𝐴∪𝐵
Note: Information
this section
based entirely on data on granted patents publicly available from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
where A inand
B are issets.
• Expand BDS-IF
• Patent portfolio value
• Geography/clusters
• Trademarks
• Examine feasibility of inventor
characteristics statistics
• Demographics
• Composition
• Networks
Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau or the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed.
New developments for Economic Data:
Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs
 New Annual Survey to augment the SBO
 Partnership with Kauffman Foundation
 Core questions and topical modules
 First will focus on R&D and Innovation
 Expect to mail reference year 2014 survey in
September
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New developments for Economic Data:
Modernizing Economic Statistics
 Survey collection getting more costly/difficult
 Even if it wasn’t, user demand can’t be met
with surveys alone
 Efforts underway to leverage new sources of
data for economic (and social) measurement
 New Center focused on “Big Data”
 Retail source data expansion
 Innovation Measurement Initiative
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Questions?
[email protected]
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