Transcript שקופית 1 - Jerusalem Summit

Land and Peace in the Middle East
Examining Size, Significance and Solutions
Dr. Martin Sherman
Manila, August 2004
Israel & the Moslem World
Israel & the Arab World
300,000 sq km
Philippines
Israel
20,770 sq km
Philippines
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
Israel
a. 3 miles wide here
b. Golan Heights
c. Sea of Galilee
d. Jordan River... Sea of Galilee
to Dead Sea
e. 1967 "Green Line"... the 1949
armistice lines separating
Israel from its heartland of
Judea-Samaria when Jordanian
forces illegally annexed it. After the
1967 Arab-Israeli war, Israel
regained that land... at which time
the world began referring to Judea and
Samaria as the "West Bank" in order to
try to erase any Jewish connection
to this historically Jewish land!
f. 9 miles wide here
g. Tel Aviv
h. Jerusalem
i. Dead Sea
j. Gaza Strip: 5 miles x 25 miles
The surrounding 22 Arab countries are 640
times larger than tiny Israel yet they expect
Israel to turn over all the West Bank, Gaza
Strip, the Golan Heights and half of
Jerusalem... territory they lost after they
started the 1967 war!
Water Line
Rishon Le’Zion
Ben Gurion Airport
Jordan Valley
1976 Green Line
Satellite Photo Showing Israel
● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military
● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases
● Principal Power Stations
● Sweet Water System
● Crucial Communications and Transport Systems
● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control,
and Centers of Civilian Government
● 80% of the Population and 80% of the Economic
Activity
What these two senators [Byrd and Dole]
assume is that somehow or other, some Arab
state has a right to claim that anything beyond
the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and
338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions
and its purpose…. [T]here is an important
document which has now been released. It is
useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it
reveals part of what the U.S. government had in
mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a
map of the area, showing the places of
particular security concern to Israel. The map
was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who
made a study of Israeli security …to advise the
President on what the security concerns of
Israel were.*
The study advised …that the security of Israel
required Israel to receive parts of the territory of
the West Bank as essential to its defense. In
fact, all the studies of the Israeli security
problem reached the same conclusion – from
the security point of view, Israel must hold the
high points in the West Bank and areas along
the Jordan River.
I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would
draw a different map today, but I doubt is very
much.
* See Appendix D. Editor
Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN
Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and
History, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993
The Mountain Aquifer
Recharge, Storage, and Pumping Areas
Pumping Area
Recharge Area
Jordan Valley
Storage Area
Mediterranean
Subterranean Flow
Aquiclude
Aquifer
Recharge Areas of the Mountain Aquifer
The Mountain Aquifer –Water Movement
and Sources of Salination
Judea & Samaria Highlands
Pumping Sites
Coastal Plain
Direction of Salt
Propagation
‫גשם על מחשופי האקוויפר‬
‫מעבר לקו הירוק‬
Green Line
‫אזור‬
‫המילוי החוזר‬
Direction of Flow
of Pollutants
Mountain
Aquifer
Surface Discharge
of Aquifer
Mediterranean
Sea
Direction of Subterranean
Flow of Ground Water in the
Aquifer
Jordan R.
Direction of
Progression of
Salting
Wells within Israel proper were tapping this
water long before the Six-Day War. But as the
population and water demand on both sides of
the Green Line have grown, the control of the
western slopes has attained a new and vital
importance for Israel.
It is the rain falling on the West Bank that
recharges the aquifer; any new wells drilled
between the recharge area and the Israeli taps
could cut off supply and, by lowering the water
tables in the part of the aquifer that extends to
the west of the Green Line, allow saline water
from greater depths to seep in, permanently
US News & World Report, 16.12.91.
ruining what is left”
Location of wells and springs in districts of the West Bank
Head of Military Intelligence:
The Arabs Demand 60 Percent
of Israel’s Water
Territorial Concessions =
Multi Dimensional Threat !!
(a) Length – Extent of Frontiers
(b) Width – No “Strategic Depth”
(c) Height – Topographical Inferiority
(d) Depth – Hydrological Dependency
The establishment of such [a Palestinian] state means the
inflow of combat ready Palestinian forces (more than 25,000
men under arms) into Judea and Samaria; this force, together
with the local youth, will double itself in a short time.
It will not be short of weapons or other [military] equipment,
and in a short space of time, an infrastructure for waging war
will be set up in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
Israel will have problems in preserving day-to-day security,
which may drive the country into war, or undermine the
morale of its citizens.
In time of war, the frontiers of the Palestinian state will
constitute an excellent staging point for mobile forces to
mount attacks on infrastructure installations vital for Israel’s
existence, to impede the freedom of action of the Israeli airforce in the skies over Israel, and to cause bloodshed among
the population... in areas adjacent to the frontier-line.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now,
Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 232.
Even if the Palestinians agree that their
state have no army or weapons, who
can guarantee that a Palestinian army
would not be mustered later to encamp
at the gates of Jerusalem and the
approaches to the lowlands?
And if the Palestinian state would be
unarmed, how would it block terrorist
acts perpetrated by extremists,
fundamentalists or irredentists?
Shimon Peres The New Middle East, New York: H. Holt, 1993, p. 169.
In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin
waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the
most formidable weapon used by both sides was the
canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power…
It is of course doubtful whether territorial expanse can
provide absolute deterrence. However, the lack of
minimal territorial expanse places a country in a position
of an absolute lack of deterrence. This in itself
constitutes almost compulsive temptation to attack Israel
from all directions …
In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid
mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial
expanse has increased…Without a border which affords
security, a country is doomed to destruction in war.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, pp. 235,254,255
... the innovation and sophistication in weaponry
... [including ]the appearance of ground to ground
missiles and supersonic fighter-bombers]... not
only fail to diminish the value of strategic depth
and natural barriers, but in fact enhance their
importance. This is even more true for Israel’s
difficult geographic position ...
One does not have to a military expert to easily
identify the critical defects of the armistice lines
that existed until June 4, 1967. [For Israel] a
military defeat ... would mean the physical
extinction of a large part of its population and the
political elimination of the Jewish state. ...To
lose a single war is to lose everything...’
Yigal Allon, ‘Israel: The Case for Defensible Borders’,
Foreign Affairs October, 1976, pp. 38-54.
If a Palestinian state is established, it will be armed to the teeth. Within
it there will be bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who will be
equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched rockets,
which will endanger not only random passers-by, but also every
airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies of Israel and every vehicle
traveling along the major traffic routes in the coastal plain.
Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 255.
[The proponents of Palestinian State] claim if they [the Arabs] threaten
us with artillery from Kalkilya , we will threaten Kalkilya with our
artillery.
However, the answer to this is very simple. The Arab world can exist,
prosper, and develop not only if our artillery threatens Kalkilya, but
even if it hits it. Israel, small and exposed, will neither be able to exist
nor to prosper if its urban centers, its vulnerable airport and its narrow
winding roads, are shelled.
This is the fundamental difference between them and us, this is the
terrible danger involved in the establishment of a third independent
sovereign state between us and the Jordan River… A third state is
liable to be an arrow-head directed at the very heart of Israel with all
the force of the Arab world behind it.
Amnon Rubinstein, ‘The Pitfall of a Third State ’Ha’artez, 6.8.1976
Anyone who controls the water sources of the
West Bank can, quite simply dry out the
coastal plain in Israel. Control of the two
major aquifers, drilling of deep bore-holes and
subsequent intensive pumping in Western
Samaria and in the Jenin and Tubas area are
liable to leave the Jewish farmers of the
Sharon without irrigation water, and the fields
of the Jezriel Valley devastated.
Reuven Pedazur, Defence Analyst Ha’aretz, 25.4.89
Sharon
These experiences prove not only that Ariel
terror
can be
Anderadicated,
Gaza is thebut
prime
example.
The
populated
sections
also the principle by which this is to of
Gaza
in 1970 become
an area
controlled
byNot
the To
terrorist
Imperative
behad
accomplished.
It is imperative
not to run
from
organizations
because
Defense
Minister
decided
to
If now we and
once
fall
intoFlee
the
same
mistake,
the
From
Terror
terrorism,
it more
willthe
be
smitten
only
if we
control
its
evacuate
villages
and
refugee
Fortunately
price the
will
be
much
heavier
than
– because
now
bases
andtowns,
it engage
its gangs
onbefore
theircamps.
own
territory.
we returned
to theand
correct
policy they
before
theat
Gaza
the terrorists
the means
have
theirStrip
disposal
exploded
like festering
abscess,
whichthan
could
have poisoned
are different
and more
dangerous
before.
If we
the entire
surroundings.
Buttaken
because
policy –
abandon
Gaza, it will be
overofbymistaken
the terror
of fleeing
from the population
centers[in
and
refraining
from
organizations.
Palestine Square
Gaza]
will become
eliminating
the danger
its early
formative
stages – we
a launching
site forin
rockets
aimed
at … Ashkelon
andhad
to conduct
a much
more
difficult
lengthy
campaign.
what will
the IDF
do then?
Willand
it once
again
recapture
Gaza? Shell and bomb the towns and refugee camps in
the Gaza Strip? We all aspire to a political settlement,
but we not will reach it by way of surrender but only
after crushing terrorism and we can only eliminate
terrorism if we control its bases, and fight its gangs
there and destroy them.
... a change in the sovereignty over this area and its
return to Syrians ...[who] have not placed the peace
issue in a prominent position on their national agenda
...would raise problems of the need to ensure the
existing user rights which depend on the Israeli Sea of
Galilee inflow ...
E. Kally with G. Fishelson , Water and Peace:
Water Resources and the Arab-Israeli Peace
Process, (Westport, Conn., 1993), p. 51.
If the Syrians resettle and industrialize the Golan plateau
after Israel’s evacuation, the area might become a
source of pollution endangering the water quality of the
Sea of Galilee.
D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for
Water and the Quest for Peace in the
Middle East, (New York, 1994), p. 289.
If the Syrians settle hundreds of thousands of people on
the Golan, without appropriate means for treating the
sewage and other sources of pollution, it will mean the
end of the Kinneret – beyond any shadow of a doubt.
Testimony before Knesset State Control Committee 3.1.2000.
The water sources on the Golan [are] a critical, vital and
even a fateful matter in terms of the future of the State [of
Israel]. I have to say that I am not aware of any
replacement for this water.
Ya’acov Tsur, Minster of Agriculture under both Rabin and Peres,
Jerusalem Post, 27. 12. 1995.
Number of Israelis Killed in the
Period 1991-1996
Before Oslo
Number of Israelis Killed Before and
After Oslo
After Oslo
Oslo Agreement
Judea, Samaria, Gaza
Inside Green Line
30
Months
before
Oslo
30
Months
after
Oslo
Signature of
Oslo I
Pre Oslo I (‘90-92)
growth rate (6.6%)
Post Oslo I (’94-96)
growth rate (6.1%)
Post Oslo II (’96-99)
growth rate (3.4%)
Signature of
Oslo II
Barak’s Camp
David Offer
‘Palestinian Lies’
Of all the Palestinian lies there is no lie greater or
more crushing than that which calls for the
establishment of a separate Palestinian state in
the West Bank...
.
Not since the time of Dr. Goebbels [Head of the
Nazi Propaganda Machine] has there ever been a
case in which continual repetition of a lie has born
such great fruits....
Ha’aretz (30-7-76), by former
Meretz Minister of Education,
Prof. Amnon Rubinstein
--Then Satan said to unto himself:
This besieged foe, how is he to be overcome.
Both courage and skill are his
He is well armed and well alert
Then said Satan:Not his strength I shall sap
Nor in bridle and muzzle shall I place him
Nor fear shall I bring into his heart
Nor cause him to be weak as he was before
All I shall do is this:
I shall dull his mind
And make him forget
That righteousness is with him.
Thus spoke Satan,
And the Heavens paled with fear as he rose
To commit the deed.
‫ הנצור הזה‬:‫ אז אמר השטן‬- .‫איך אוכל לו‬
‫אתו האומץ וכשרון המעשה‬
.‫וכלי מלחמה ותושיה עצה לו‬
‫ לא אטול כוחו‬:‫ואמר‬
‫ולא רסן אשים ומתג‬
‫ולא מרך אביא בתוכו‬
,‫ולא ידיו ארפה כמקדם‬
‫ אכהה מחו‬:‫רק זאת אעשה‬
.‫ושכח שאתו הצדק‬
‫ כך דבר השטן וכמו‬- ‫חורו שמים מאימה‬
‫בראותם אותו בקומו‬
. ‫לבצע את המזמה‬
Natan Alterman
‫נתן אלתרמן‬
Building Peace on Truth
“Peace”
Dictatorial
Deceptive
“Peace” = Mutual harmony
“Peace” = Lack of War due to Deterrence
The proposition that democracies are generally at peace with each
other is [so] strongly supported . . . [it] has led some scholars to claim
that this finding is probably the closest thing that we have to a law in
international politics.
Z. Maoz & B. Russett, ‘Alliances, Contiguity, Wealth and
Political Stability, International Interactions, Vol 17(3), 1992
Source: http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/ponsacs/seminars/Synopses/s92rumme.htm
Deterrent Force
Preventing
Violence
Deterrent Force
Preventing
Violence
Peace Maintained by Inherent Tendency
to Revert to Non-Violent Status Quo
Conceptual Representation of
Democratic Peace as Stable
Equilibrium
Conceptual Representation of NonDemocratic Peace as Unstable
Equilibrium
Two Opposing Hypotheses to Account
for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Conventional Wisdom:
The Fuel of the Conflict is the Absence of
Palestinian Self Determination
The True Palestinian Aspiration is to Establish
a State for Themselves
Alternative Wisdom:
The Fuel of the Conflict is the Existence of
Jewish Self Determination
The True Palestinian Aspiration is to
Dismantle a State for Jews
There are no differences between Jordanians, Palestinians,
Syrians and Lebanese. We are all part of one nation. It is only for
political reasons that we carefully underline our Palestinian
identity, because it is in the interest of the Arabs to encourage a
separate Palestinian identity.
Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian identity serves only
tactical purposes. The founding of a Palestinian state is a new
tool in the continuing battle against Israel.
Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's Military Department and
member of its Executive Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977
… Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as
one people.
Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political
Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977.
The appearance of the Palestinian national personality
comes as an answer to Israel’s claim that Palestine is Jewish.
King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987
The Palestinian National Charter
Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the Palestinian
Arab people, is an inseparable part of the greater
Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are
a part of the Arab Nation.
Article 12: The Palestinian people believe in Arab unity.
In order to contribute their share toward the
attainment of that belief, however, they must, at
the present stage of their struggle,
safeguard their Palestinian identity and develop
their consciousness of that identity, and oppose
any plan that may dissolve or impair it.
Rejection of every territorial proposal, which would have allowed them
to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's
offer at Camp David in 2000
Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and
symbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the
Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.
Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty
in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of
their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin
despot, who represents the minority in the land.
Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak proposal,
but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the
proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of conflict“, they
were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a
Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explicable only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.
Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“, which implies placing
hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now
living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly
consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli
control... or with an equitable two-state solution.
The Case for an Independent Nation State
Israel
Palestinians
Unique Religion
Unique Language
Unique Script
Unique History
Unique Customs
No credible
capable
Palestinian
leadership has
emerged
Palestinian
Statehood as a
Historical
Anachronism
Proven Palestinian
Political
Incompetence Failure
despite very
favorable conditions Palestinians
Failed test of
history
Don’t Deserve
Statehood
Don’t desire
Statehood
Palestinian
Behavior and
Decisions
Revealed
Preferences:
Rejected Declarations
every
& Deeds
territorial
proposal
Two
Competing
Hypotheses
Mutually Exclusive,
Irreconcilable National
Claims
Superior Jewish
Claims to
Self Determination
Re-Legitimize the
Zionist Narrative
De-legitimization
of Palestinian
Narrative
Remove the
Issue of
Palestinian
Statehood from
Int’l Agenda
The Human
Predicament
Persists
Abandon Political
Paradigm;
Adopt
Humanitarian one
Redefine the Palestinian Problem
– and the Nature of its Solution
Cast in Humanitarian - Rather than
Political - Terms
Concentrate on Dealing with the
Genuine Humanitarian
Predicament on Individual
Basis - Rather than Fulfilling
Spurious Political Demands
Feasibility
Territorial Compromise
Relocation and Rehabilitation
Individual Recipients
Host Countries
Economic Cost
Relocation and Rehabilitation as
Individual Rational Choice
Continue life under
the Rigors of
Israeli Control
The individual
Palestinian
would have the
following
choices:
Life under and even
more repressive and
regressive
Palestinian Regime
Accept
Accept
the the
Relocation
Relocation
Grant
Grant
and
andbuild
buildaanew
newlife
life
ofofhimself
himselfand
andhis
his
family family
Improve dramatically the lot of
individual Palestinians
Defuse the Palestinian humanitarian
predicament
Ensure the continued survival of
Israel as the nation state of the
Jewish people
Inject billions of dollars of funds in
to the economies of low income
nations
La Victoire, elle comme Dieu – si on y croit, elle existe
‫אם תרצו – אין זו אגדה‬
We Shall Overcome