Transcript Volta-CPWF-BFP Impact Pathway and Most Significant Change

Impact pathways for the BFPs
Boru Douthwaite
BFP-Impact Assessment Project Leader, CIAT, Cali, Colombia
Presentation made at the BFP PFF, Don Chang Palace Hotel,
Vientiane, Laos
Sunday, 12th November, 2006
CPWF-BFP Impact Assessment Project
• Goal
– To contribute to the CPWF fulfilling its impact potential
– To contribute to the CPWF being perceived as a “coherent,
problem-focused research program”
• Purpose
– CPWF scientists and management are using IA products
and methods
• Intervention
– Carry out “exemplary” impact analysis
• Impact pathways; scenario analysis; extrapolation domain
analysis
– Develop methodology
Logic model
>---Results-orientated perspective---->
Impact pathways – two
conceptualizations….
<-----the full picture---->
Network maps
>----------Actor-orientated perspective--------->
Impact Pathways
1. A visual description of the causal chain of events
and outcomes that link outputs to the goal (logic
model); and
2. Network maps that show the evolving
relationships necessary to achieve the goal
•
Implementing organizations; boundary partners;
beneficiaries
Shows the project rationale; its logic
Shows multiple pathways
Foundations of the IP Approach
• Synthesis of concepts and tools from:
– Program Evaluation
• Renger and Titcomb (2002) – problem trees
• Chen (2005) – program theory
• Mayne (2004) - performance stories
– Social network analysis
• Cross and Parker, 2004
Participatory
Development of
Impact Pathways
The Process of Developing Impact Pathways
– The Workshop
OUTPUTS OF IMPACT PATHWAYS (IP) WORKSHOP
PRODUCTS PRODUCED AFTER WORKSHOP
(Draft produced before workshop)
Developing a results-orientated
view of a project's IP
Project Problem Tree
Project Objective Tree
What the
project will
produce
Developing an actor-orientated
view of a project's IP
How project
goes from
outputs to goals
Necessary
relationships
to produce
the OUTPUTS
Outputs
Vision
Helps understand
project rationale
What needs to change
Where project is
going- Goal
Project Timeline
Extrapolation
Domain Analysis
IP logic model
Two descriptions
of the project's
impact pathways
Iterative
process
"Now" network
map
"Future"
network map
Necessary
relationships
to achieve
the VISION
Scenario
Analysis
Network maps
(Relationship by
relationship)
Impact
Narrative
The Process of Developing Impact Pathways
OUTPUTS OF IMPACT PATHWAYS (IP) WORKSHOP
PRODUCTS PRODUCED AFTER WORKSHOP
(Draft produced before workshop)
Developing a results-orientated
view of a project's IP
Project Problem Tree
Project Objective Tree
What the
project will
produce
Developing an actor-orientated
view of a project's IP
How project
goes from
outputs to goals
Necessary
relationships
to produce
the OUTPUTS
Outputs
Vision
Helps understand
project rationale
What needs to change
Where project is
going- Goal
Project Timeline
Extrapolation
Domain Analysis
IP logic model
Two descriptions
of the project's
impact pathways
Iterative
process
"Now" network
map
"Future"
network map
Necessary
relationships
to achieve
the VISION
Scenario
Analysis
Network maps
(Relationship by
relationship)
Impact
Narrative
PN 34 Improved fisheries productivity Problem Tree
Why?
4th LEVEL
Why?
Why?
3rd LEVEL
2nd LEVEL
Uncooperative
attitudes of fishers
with respect to
management of
fisheries resources
Lack of knowledge
of options of
enhancement
technologies
Lack of financial
resources capacity
to implement
scenarios for
improved fisheries
production
Bad Harvesting
Strategies
Why is this problem happening?
1st LEVEL
Underused
Fisheries
Production
Capacity
Processing
limitations
Limited
Reservoir
Productivity
Problem
Depressed
Livelihoods
Lack of
aquaculture
activities
Determinants
PN 34 (Improved Fisheries Production) Objectives Tree
4th LEVEL
Fishers cooperate
in fisheries
management
Knowledge of
options in
enhancement
technologies
transferred
Financial resources
for improved
fisheries
productivity and
management
obtained
3rd LEVEL
Aquaculture
activities
implemented
Responsible
harvesting
strategies
Improved
processing
methods
2nd LEVEL
Optimized use of
fisheries
production
capacity
1st LEVEL
Goal
Increased
reservoir
productivity and
management
Enhanced
livelihoods
Start Here
Key IP Concepts: How change
happens
• “Improvements in poverty alleviation, food
security and the state of natural resources
result from dynamic, interactive, non-linear,
and generally uncertain processes of
innovation.”
EIARD, 2003
EIARD represents a group of European donors
15 EU Countries plus Norway and Switzerland
Level of influence of Project
High
C
O
N
T
R
O
L
Low
Research
activity
Output
target
Output
Outcome
Impact
Scaling Out and Scaling Up
• Scaling up - an
institutional expansion,
from adopters and their
grassroots organizations
to policy makers, donors,
development institutions
• Scaling out - spread of a
project outputs (i.e., a
new technology, a new
strategy, etc.) from farmer
to farmer, community to
community, within the
same stakeholder groups
The theory behind the IP approach
=
Impact Pathways
Program Theory
(Chen, 2005)
Normative Theory
(What is expected - project
milestones, etc.)
Causative Theory
(Explanations of causation)
Explicit Theory
(Theories as explained
to others)
Implicit Theory
(Personal theories
of action)
Greater congruence
increases project
effectiveness
(Argyris, 1980;
Patton, 1997)
“Stakeholders' implicit theories are not likely to be systematically and explicitly
articulated, and so it is up to evaluators to help stakeholders elaborate their ideas.”
(Chen, 2005, p. 14)
The Process of Developing Impact Pathways
OUTPUTS OF IMPACT PATHWAYS (IP) WORKSHOP
PRODUCTS PRODUCED AFTER WORKSHOP
(Draft produced before workshop)
Developing a results-orientated
view of a project's IP
Project Problem Tree
Project Objective Tree
What the
project will
produce
Developing an actor-orientated
view of a project's IP
How project
goes from
outputs to goals
Necessary
relationships
to produce
the OUTPUTS
Outputs
Vision
Helps understand
project rationale
What needs to change
Where project is
going- Goal
Project Timeline
Extrapolation
Domain Analysis
IP logic model
Two descriptions
of the project's
impact pathways
Iterative
process
"Now" network
map
"Future"
network map
Necessary
relationships
to achieve
the VISION
Scenario
Analysis
Network maps
(Relationship by
relationship)
Impact
Narrative
Identify Project Outputs
• Identify the outputs your BFP will produce. Write
them on cards.
Task 1
– Outputs are things that others outside the project use
• Take 10 minutes and then present them
(presentation maximum 2 minutes)
Develop a vision of project success two
years after the project ends
• Work in project groups
• Take 5 minutes to individually answer the question
Task 2
– You wake up 2 years after your project has ended. Your
project has been a success and is well on its way to
achieving its goal. Describe what this success looks
like to a journalist:
•
•
•
•
What is happening differently now?
Keep it realistic
Who is doing what differently?
How are project outputs disseminating (scaling-out)?
What political support is nurturing this spread (scaling-up)?
How did that happen?
• Discuss and develop a common vision
Family ties
Friendship ties
Workplace ties
Network Exercise
1.
Develop network diagrams for
•
•
Task 3
2.
Develop now and future network maps for:
•
•
•
3.
4.
5.
6.
Your project now
“Vision” network 2 years after project has finished
Research
Scaling out / extension
Scaling up / political support
Identify differences between the now and future
networks
Discuss changes in terms of concrete actions needed to
bring them about
Develop work plans
Present maps, implications and work plans to each other
Final maps based on answers
Extrapolation Domain Analysis
• Use Weight of Evidence models
– Socio-economic, example PN6:
• Existence of fish production (FAO, 2006);
• Percentage coverage of sanitation facilities
(UNICEF, 2005);
• The poverty line as describe by the below U$D 1
per/day index (ILRI, 2006).
– Agro-ecological
Choice of Variables
Pilot Sites
Socio-economic extrapolation
Agro-ecological Extrapolation
Putting them together