Transcript GRAVITY

The Use of Global Datasets for Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment: the GRAVITY project
Pascal Peduzzi,
Hy Dao
Damien Rochette
Christian Herold
United Nation Environment Programme
[email protected]
Context
• The UNDP/ERD World Vulnerability Report
• Expert Meeting on Vulnerability and Risk
Analysis and Indexing, Sept. 2000
• UNDP/ERD - UNEP/GRID contract, 4 staffs
paid at GRID-Geneva
• Feasibility study : Feb.-Jun. 2001
• Consolidation : Jul.-Dec. 2001
Mitigation
?
Risk
Formula
Riski = Hazardi x Population x Vulnerabilityi
Risk tot = Riskvolc + Riskflood + Riskcycl. + … + Riskn
Realized Risk (CRED) = Vulnerability
Hazard x population
Physical exposure
Geophysical and statistical datasets
Type of
disaster
From available data
Data source
URL
Resolution/scale
Spatial unit
Intensity
Probability
Earthquakes
Global Sismic
Hazard
Assessment
Program
http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/G
SHAP/
1/10 degree
Grid cell
Peak Ground
Acceleration
PGA hazard
Wind storms
Carbon Dioxide
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/
InformationAnalysis
Center
5 degrees
Grid cell
Wind speed
Annual probability
Floods
Dartmouth Flood
Observatory
Polygons
Large flood
Frequency
events: 1-3 scale,
1980 – 2000
based on
damages,
fatalities,
recurrence
interval and flood
extend.
http://www.dartmouth.edu/art -Large flood events
sci/geog/floods/index.html
watersheds: based on
satellite image and DFO
news sources.
-Flood limits observed by
satellite: 250m-1km.
All
CRED
http://www.cred.be/emdat/
Records on 21 years
Countries
Frequency
1980 – 2000
Eruptions
National
GeophysicalData
Center
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/se
g/hazard/volcano.shtml
Points (buffered to
produce polygons)
Volcanic
Explosivity Index
Frequency
VEI 2-3: 1950 –
2000
VEI 4-7: 1500 –
2000
Tsunamis
National
Geophysical Data
Center
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/se
g/hazard/tsu.shtml
Points
Maximum runup
Frequency
1900 – 2000
600
Access to information in time
0
200
All disasters
1900
1920
1940
1960
year
1980
2000
Exploration of the CRED
Disaster
types
% of
total
Deaths
GEO regions
Deaths
% of total
Drought
563’701
46.54 %
Africa
581’391
48.00 %
Wind storm
251’384
20.76 %
Asia + Pacific
447’906
36.98 %
Flood
170’010
14.04 %
Latin America +
Caribbean
105’599
8.72 %
Earthquake
158’551
13.09 %
Europe
63’274
5.22 %
Volcano
25’050
2.07 %
North America
8’870
0.73 %
Extreme
temp
19’249
1.59 %
West Asia
4’047
0.33 %
Slide
18’200
1.50 %
Not referenced
72
0.01 %
Wave/surge
3’968
0.32 %
Total
1’211’159
100%
Wild fire
1’046
0.06 %
0
0.00 %
Insect
infestation
Total
1’211’159
100%
For 1980-2000
Selection criterion
Type of
Hazards
UNDP/ER CRED possible
Geophysical
incorporated in this
D’s request ? >5% >20 k / Data available ?
study ?
if possible
year ?
Possible ?
Yes / No
Drought
Yes
Yes
Complex
No
Earthquakes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Epidemics
No
---
---
No
Extrem.
temperature
Yes
Not significant
---
No
Flood
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Forest fires
Yes
Not significant
---
No
Landslides
Yes
Not significant
No
No
Locust
No
---
---
No
Volcanoes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Wave/surge
Yes
No (with
exceptions)
lack of detailed
data
No
Wind storms
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Need to take into account drought
Drought (food insecurity) = 46.54%
Need special consideration for:
Tsunamis: Papua New Guinea (67.8%), Ecuador (14.3%)
Landslides: China (6%), India (3,46%), Indonesia (13,88%),
Peru (33%), Colombia (4,2%), Philippines (4.59%)
and Ecuador (10.2%).
The choice of indicators
Countries
Area
Pop.
Killed
% pop.
killed
% of
affectable
pop. killed
Killed
per area
Killed/area
affectable
A
16
15
3
20 %
50 %
0.1875
0.5
B
8
8
1
12.5 %
25 %
0.125
0.33
C
2
2
1
50 %
100 %
0.5
1
D
2
2
1
50 %
50 %
0.5
0.5
Using the database on population CIESIN/UNEP
ISO_3_CODE
COL
CMR
PHL
IDN
MEX
JPN
USA
ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPE
MSR
IRN
Earthquake
SUN
Earthquake
GTM
TUR
Earthquake
PNG
IND
Earthquake
CHL
AFG
Earthquake
NIC
MEX
Earthquake
CPV
JPN
Earthquake
ISL
ECU
Earthquake
ECU
IDN
Earthquake
SUN
COL
Earthquake
COM
DZA
Earthquake
NZL
YMN
Earthquake
ITA
Earthquake
ITA
TWN
Earthquake
TTO
CHN
Earthquake
CRI
SLV
Earthquake
PER
RUS
PHL
NPL
MMR
PAK
EGY
PNG
GRC
GEO
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
Earthquake
DIS_TYPE
KILLED INJUREDHOME
AFFECT
TOT_AFF
NB_E
AV_K_PM
Volcano
21810
5006
259600
264606
4
54
Volcano
1771
0 510
7134
7644
3
5
Volcano
719
205 183922
942284
1126411
8
1
Volcano
422
215 86770
466866
553851
25
Volcano
120
500 15000
143108
158608
7
Volcano
82
20 1100
98530
99650
10
Volcano
60
2500
2500
1
KILLED INJUREDHOME
AFFECT
TOT_AFF
NB_E
AV_K_PM_PE
PC_I_PE
Volcano
32
13000
3 0.0000939
41230 141017
126570
213238
480825
36 13000 1145.2778
25575 12885
592524
1117000
1722409
33 16768 825.0000
Volcano
17
35 0
16733
9
19950
56056
745065
1254500
2055621
19
1173.5294
Volcano
9
31 46000
132800
178831
5 0.0000510
11800
22765
105700
20575800
20704265
14
842.8571
Volcano
6
0 3200
72250
75450
7 0.0000028
9333
7837
1216692
357595
19328270 491.2105
Volcano
75 10000 487101 318195
4 0.0000492
8973 31652
12693
217735
262080
21
448.6500
0.0000321
Volcano
0
6 5000
1300
6306
1
6017 39921
300312
3653852
3994085
33
200.5667
0.0000187
Volcano
0
0
3
4306
436
121600
167200
289236
10
430.6000
0.0000048
Volcano
0 2200 1006629
22000
1 0.0000020
4055 11325
2455300
749774
39 24200 103.9744
Volcano
0
7 0.0000284
3035 11012
4852120
809164
1305388
12
252.9167
Volcano
200
200 283.8000
1 0.0000680
2838
9134
4614000
528898
999432
10
Volcano
0
70
70 2800.0000
1
2800
1500
400000
401500
1
2666
9478
538000
561000
624278
18 7000 148.1111
Volcano
7000
3 0.0000139
2277
9033
100000
0
109033
3
759.0000
Volcano
0
200
200
1
2077
45383
1395575
6123943
7564901
50
46.1556
Volcano
0
450
450
2 0.0000009
2020 20694
252500
530000
803194
3
673.3333
Volcano
4000
4000
1 0.0021499
2001
1773
809
741
674
571
508
411
278
1020
3919
6616
136
4071
9998
200
2919
1700
26440
169291
30000
0
25000
19000
84300
160000
6000
1794214
540000
0
550
0
23000
236255
105000
33460
1967424
576616
136
4621
34998
42200
323474
266700
5
11
2
3
14
3
14
21
3
500.2500
161.1818
404.5000
247.0000
51.8462
190.3333
39.0769
22.8333
92.6667
0.0000013
0.0000107
0.0002216
0.0000031
0.0000047
0.0000566
0.0000162
0.0000255
0.0001560
ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPE
KILLED INJUREDHOME
AFFECT
TOT_AFF
NB_E
NB_E_C
VEN
Flood
30172
3119
147988
504027
655134
14
IND
Flood
29704
183 7417100 417960475 425377758
85
CHN
Flood
27336 373134 30737900 1135259056 1155300090
101
BGD
Flood
11968
2020 33085000 236482311 269569331
44
AFG
Flood
8831
5676
70050
312455
388181
16
NPL
Flood
5597
414
18650
1921525
1940589
22
PAK
Flood
4555
115 10123472
15923821
26047408
21
VNM
Flood
3407
1849
278304
20538568
20818721
24
ISO_3_CODE DIS_TYPEIRN
KILLED
INJUREDHOME 3255
AFFECT164 TOT_AFF
NB_E
AV_K_PM_PE
PC_I_PE
Flood
183750
1311526
1489440
41
BGD
Wind storm
156944
221012
4508000
36528008
41257020
74
2120.8649
0
MEX
Flood
2545
460
269734
1310500
1580694
23
IND
Wind storm
25081
46166244 2656192
61
411.1639 56
0
IDN
Flood 10698 1384500
2501 44771046
249526
202400
3108118
PHL
Wind storm
18723
18094
9456303
70159007
79633404
127
148.5952
0
SOM
Flood
2465
0
290000
1234000
1524000
11
VNM
Wind storm
9949
29446939 8252865
51
195.0784 48
0
BRA
Flood 65739 1669589
2345 27711611
2804 1029367
9285036
CHN
Wind storm
9745
139294763
127
77.9600 24
0
PER
Flood 88173 12747015
2282126459575
2599
42300
2181550
2226449
HND
Wind storm
6025
12034
8200
2209153
2229387
6
1004.1667
0
PHL
Flood
1879
490
323636
7955081
8279207
38
USA
Wind storm
4718
339160
10837861
278
17.7368 21
0
SUN
Flood 4171
1875 10494558
0
2586
59000
61586
NIC
Wind storm
2847
230000
1586740 4012706
7
406.7143 12
0
SDN
Flood 506
1608 1356234
18500 1166700
5197906
HTI
Wind storm
1706
29
287115
2712000
2999144
6
341.2000
0
TJK
Flood
1435
62
68608
286466
355136
7
MEX
Wind storm
1696
198700
1488595 790890
34
49.8824 16
0
KOR
Flood 280
1414 1289615
297
565681
1356868
MDG
Wind storm
1329
645000
336805717009478
16
88.6000 28
0
THA
Flood 1058
1319 2721999
3273
151553
17164304
KOR
Wind storm
1240
206
4137
200771
205114
19
65.2632
0
YEM
Flood
1308
0
330000
45750
375750
18
PAK
Wind storm
1106
9597
657000
667711
12
92.1667 16
0
ZAF
Flood 1114
1218
37
10850
73300
84187
JPN
Wind storm
816
176840
1474517 884326
38
22.6667 11
0
MWI
Flood 3077
1190 1294600
0
131300
1015626
xEur
Wind storm
738
74
74
11
67.0909
THA
Wind storm
675
20
92587
3018598
3111205
15
45.0000
0
TWN
Wind storm
476
263
2000
22200
24463
18
28.0000
MOZ
Wind storm
464
204 1550050
2354350
3904604
7
66.2857
0
SUN
Wind storm
406
0
10000
10000
7
58.0000
DOM
Wind storm
344
30
2500
4532538
4535068
8
43.0000
0
MYS
Wind storm
270
0
3000
1650
4650
2
135.0000
0
GTM
Wind storm
263
105700
105700
1
263.0000
Socio-economic datasets
Variable Description
code
Sources
Comments
gdp
Gross Domestic Product
(constant 1995 millions
US$)
UNEP (compiled from 1960-2000
World Bank)
pop
Population (persons x
1000)
UNEP (compiled)
lifex
Life expectancy (year)
UNEP (compiled from 1960-2000
World Bank)
litrate
Literacy rate (%)
UNEP (compiled from 1960-2000
World Resources
Institute)
surface
Land area (km2)
WHO + ArcWorld
(ESRI)
217 countries
hdi
Humand Development
Index
UNDP
1998
urban
Urbanisation (%urban
population)
UNEP (compiled from 1960-2000
World Bank, FAO)
corup
Corruption indicator
Transparency
International (TI)
1960-2000
CPI Score 2000
type
Wind storm
Ethq. low
Ethq. high
-
Flood
+
+
Volcano
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
Population
growth
Urbanisation
growth
Urbanisation
GDP per capita
Local population
density
Population
density
Corruption index
hazard
Human
Development
Index
Identified factors
hdi corup popd popdl gdpcap urban urbang3 popg3
+
+
Crossplot between estimated and realized risk for floods
0
10
20
Estim ated ris k (ranked)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 00
1 10
1 20
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Re a lis e d r is k ( r a n k e d )
r = 0.61
Several products
Exposure to flood
Thank you
Http://www.grid.unep.ch/preview