Transcript Kein Folientitel

“Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged Europe:
Perspectives for R&D Co-operation“
A contribution within the context of the Weimar Triangle
Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004
Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects
Wolfgang Eichhammer
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
www.isi.fraunhofer.de
Karlsruhe, Germany
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Energy Efficiency - The sextuple dividend
“The double dividend”
 Reduction of environmental burden (CO2, local pollution)
 Effects on employment/competitiveness
 Supply security: protection to oil/gas price shocks
 Economy: protection to “oil/pas price intoxication” (Yoyo
in energy prices; high energy prices in slowly recovering
economy)
 Savings on oil stocks (90 days provision)
 Energy Efficiency: Trigger for Innovation
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Energy Efficiency
Where we are and our policies
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Energy efficiency is improving … until 1998 : almost 10% since
1990: main improvement in industry with 17% against, 6% in
transport and 5% in households; slow-down since 1998
100
90
85
ODEX
80
Odyssee Bottom-up Index for
Energy Efficiency
75
"Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency"
industry
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
19
92
19
91
70
19
90
Index
95
households
transport
total
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Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Change in Efficiency Standards of New Dwellings:
Specific Consumption Index
Some of our most performant
national policies
France
Germany
100
UK
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
80
60
40
20
0
<1974 1974
1982
1988
2001
0
0
<1978 1978
Finland
1985
1995
2002
<1990
1990
1995
2003/05
Sweden
Denmark
100
100
80
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
40
20
20
20
60
0
0
<1985
1985
1987
2002
0
<1976
1976
1980
1990
<1985
1995
2005
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Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Consumption for heating in the EU: per dwelling ,
larger dwellings offset half of the
reduction in consumption per m2
25
•Recent revisions in 8 countries
20
Italy (94), Germany (95 & 02), Denmark(95)
Netherlands (95, 98 & 00), Ireland (97), Austria
France (01), Greece (95 & 01)
15
10
5
0
new dwellings
average
koe/m2
koe/m2
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
toe/dwelling
stable on average , but decrease per m2 ; regular reduction
for new dwellings because of re-enforcement in standards
•Planned reinforcement in 3 countries
Finland (03), UK , France and Denmark (05)
On average , 4 revisions since 1973 in most
countries with an energy saving of 60%
for dwellings built now compared to 1973
•But limited impact on average unit
consumption: in 1999, dwellings built since 1990
only represent 8% of total heating consumption
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Source: Odyssee Database
www.odyssee-indicators.org
Existing stock with 0.5%/a increase
in heated surfaces (observed): -16%
Unit Consumption per building (toe/dwelling).
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
Existing stock: -29%
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
1970
New stock: -82%
1975
1980
1985
1990
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1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Limits to policy: Impact of hypothetical
building regulation every 6 years on
stock (lifestyle !)
Cold Appliances Market by Label Class (EU)
Policy Impact ! Not autonomous
50
1990-1992 (GEA)
45
1994
40
1995
1996
35
1997
% of Market
1998
30
1999
2002
25
2003 (Jan-Apr)
20
15
10
5
0
A++
A+
A
B
C
Labelling Class
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Source: MURE database
(www.mure2.com)
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D
E
F
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Source: Waide (2000), GfK (2003)
Success of a consistent and comprehensive
policy, of an innovative and proactive
industry, as well as of receptive consumers
Energy Efficiency Index: I
....... I < 30
30  I < 42
42  I < 55
55  I < 75
75  I < 90
90  I < 100
100  I < 110
110  I < 125
125  I
Energy Efficiency Class
A++
A+
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Average Index
120
99,1
100
91,4
90,0
88,2
85,0
79,5
74,9
80
65,4
63,5
60
Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger
refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of half
the EU wind industry and several large nuclear
plants. In the next 15 years this can be doubled !
40
20
0
1990-1992
(GEA)
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2002
2003 (JanApr)
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200
TWh
150
Household electricity consumption by type of appliances:
successful energy policies versus social trends
100
50
0
Large
appliances
Lighting
Small
appliances
53%
1985
1990
2001
50%
60
The race between equipment
levels and policy
60%
51%
45%
Labelling Policies
40%
37%
50
40
TWh
30%
30%
26%
21% 19%
19%
20%
30
20
In particular ICT
10%
10
0%
0
Dr
ye
rs
TV
Re
fri
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to
rs
Fr
W
ee
as
ze
hi
rs
ng
m
ac
hi
ne
Di
s
sh
wa
sh
er
s
Large appliances
Lighting
1985
1990
Small appliances
2001
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1985
1990
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2001I
Source: Odyssee Database 2002
Message 1: Successful but….
We were quite successful in improving energy efficiency in the fields
where we had coherent policies.
However, behaviour/rebound effects will destroy in many occasions
our efforts
Two strategies: either be even more stronger in the technology field
or tackle behaviour
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Message from a recent evaluation of energy efficiency measures
in the residential sector (EU15)
What we will achieve in the present
decade: 500-700 PJ
What we have achieved in the
past decade: 500-600 PJ
Summary
1990/2000
PJ
Mt CO2
Level 1 (Odyssee)
468,1
Level 2 (Measure evaluations)
559,4
Level 3 (Measure simulation, EU10)
524,0
Scaling Level 3 to EU15 with Energy Consumption 2000
571,1
Economic Potential Scenario
"1% target for residential sector"
1254,6
2000/2010
PJ
35,2
43,3
44,2
48,1
70,1
What we have to achieve according
to the proposed EU Energy Service
Directive: 1400 PJ
We need to double our efforts in energy
efficiency in the present and in particular the
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future decades not
taking
in account
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behaviour and living standard
!nd
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728,5
442,5
482,2
1540,9
1430,9
2000/2025
PJ
Mt CO2
51,3
37,4
40,6
116,8
1013,4
1104,4
3749,4
3577,3
Mt CO2
85,6
93,1
280,4
What we can achieve in
an economic manner:
1500 PJ
Source: MURE
www.mure2.com
Message 2: "Lead policy" measure needed
We need a "lead policy" measure for the field of energy efficiency
that can provide us with targets for the next decades similar to the
RES-E Directive for renewables
The proposed EU Directive for Energy Service (1% improvement per
year beyond autonomous improvement) has the potential for such a
"Lead policy" measure and needs a strong political support in all EU
member states.
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Armory Lovin‘s Bathroom Plug (today)
How we use energy today
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Armory Lovin‘s bathroom plug 2080
Product/Material Strategies
Nanotechnologies
Biotechnologies
…..
2080
Current efficiency level
No-regret
potentials 2020
Energy Efficiency
R&D 2040
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The Future
Message 3: Coherent agenda needed
We need a coherent R&D agenda with long-term targets and intermediate milestones
beyond FP6 bundling more strongly advances in other fields such as
nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, material sciences and efficiency into the
improvement of energy efficiency.
This agenda needs to be determined together with the private sector (transport
sector, industrial sector, products for the residential sector, supply industries)
We need more energy efficiency technology platforms beyond the steel technology
platform proposed currently, based on our problems: e.g "how to reduce
consumption levels in existing buildings to the level of new buildings without 50 cm
of insulation", "how to reduce stand-by consumption to close to zero", "how to
reduce the weight of our cars to the half" (benefit also to hydrogen, electric cars,
biofuel cars,…)
We need to communicate the results of this agenda more regularly and more
officially to the public: renewables and hydrogen have by far a better PR-Strategy
than energy efficiency !
We need to consider behavioural aspects in addition to technology aspects
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White Book for Energy Efficiency
R&D
The 2000 Watt Society
If you want to build a ship,
don ’t drum up the men to gather wood,
divide the work and give orders.
Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast
and endless sea.
Antoine de Saint Exupéry
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Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D
CEPE (Switzerland)
http://www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications/list.htm#4
14
Ratio 
of current specific energy consumption to minimal energy
consumption from chemical equation
Long-term energy
saving potentials
industrial sector:
Distance of current
energy consumption
to minimum energy
consumption
Ratio
of current specific energy consumption to minimal energy
consumption from chemical equation
CaC2
18
Alumina
16

Copper
12
Smelt reduction + oxygen steel
Blast furnace + oxygen steel
Steel
Lead
10
12,60
Steel
10,90
8
Pig Iron
(smelt reduction)
9,50
6
Zinc
7,10
Pig Iron
(blast furnace)
6,50
4
4,30
4,00
Primary
Aluminium
2
2,40
0
(Fe)SR+OS
(Fe)SR+OS
Cu
Pb
(Fe)BF+OS
(Fe)BF+OS
(Fe
(Fe3C)SR
3C)SR
Zn
(Fe
(Fe3C)BF
3C)BF
14
12
from CaO
from CH4
16,10
10
Ammonia
8
6
The task is difficult…
Methanole
Acethylene I
Phosphor
4
6,70
2
Acethylene II
Sodium
Carbonate
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3,80
Chlorine
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3,00
2,50
In
s
titu
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2,40
0
Al2O3
NH3
Calcium
Carbide
CH3OH
CH
3OH
P
2,30
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CC2H2
H
(I)
Na
CO
C
Na2CO3
C2H2
(II)
2 2 (I)
2
3
2H2 (II)
1,90
1,50
CaC
CaC22
Cl22
Cl
Alprim
QSL process
Classical lead shaft furnace
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…but not impossible
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QSL-Process for the
smelting of lead
Lead Smelting (QSL-Process in Germany)
The essential energetical progress of the new process consisted in:
the unification of two previously separate process steps in one
reaction vessel, of which one is exothermal (lead roasting), the other
endothermal (lead reduction).
in the reduction of recirculated raw materials in the sinter step
In the demonstration phase 40 % energy savings were achieved, in
the industrial application over 25 %. Investment costs were lowered
by about 20 %.
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Applications of nanotechnology for the energy sector
Energy
Generation
Nanoparticles
Dye Solar Cells
Carbon Nanotubes and
Fullerenes
Organic Solar
Cells
Energy
Transformation
Catalysts
Nanocomposites / Nanostructured
Membranes and
Nanoceramics
Electrodes for
Fuel Cells, Batteries and Accumulators
Efficiency Improvement of
conventional
technology
Metal oxides/metals
Fuel Additives
Hydrogen Storage
Supercondenser
Nanostructured
Membranes and
Electrodes for Fuel
Cells, Batteries and
Accumulators
Super Conducting Cables
Super Conducting
Materials
Energy
Storage
Nanocermics
and Coatings
Magnetic Materials
OLEDs for Displays and Lighting
Super Conducting
Storage Coils
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Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)
Supercapacitors to
avoid oversizing of
car engines
Source: White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D
CEPE (Switzerland)
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Source:
Science et Vie 2004
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Looking beyond present savings:
More economic flat
screens…rethinking our products in
the light of energy efficiency right from
Application of biotechnological processes to energy supply and demand
Production of energy sources from various raw materials and sources: Established processes
use biomass in order to generate hydrogen, ethanol, methanol, and acetone with butanol and
ethanol (ABE). Innovative process optimization focus on the use of cheaper carbon sources
and aim on the improvement of strains and strain metabolism by genetic engineering. A third
area for innovation is the improved efficiency of product recovery.
Biogas and biomass for energy generation employ biotechnological techniques as well,
however at present there are little efforts for high-tech improvement.
Application of photosynthesis for energy generation. At present this process is pure basic
research. According to experts industrial applications are expected to have a long term
perspective for commercialization.
Bioleaching: extraction of specific metals from their ores through the use of bacteria (relevant
for low-concentration ores, e.g. for copper.
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Source: ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)
The long-term improvement of energy efficiency has many legs...
Direct efficiency improvement in the chain from energy supply to use
Process substitution
Energy
Lowering the demand for useful energy
Recycling of energy-intensive materials
Reduce the specific material consumption (”Dematerialisation”)
Material
Product recycling and lifetime extension/ intensification of product use
Use of biogenic raw materials
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See also:
Dematerialisation less clear than it seems
www.vhknet.com/download/dematerialisation.pdf
Informal Environment Council - Dutch EU presidency (16-18 July 2004)
Objective: emphasise on strategic chances for European industry: Eco-efficiency as main
driver for creating a highly innovative European industry. In a Porter perspective, Europe has
a unique possibility to create jobs and strong (new) industries for the future by emphasising
eco-efficiency as a key drive.
Scoping: Use eco-efficiency as a key motor of European competitiveness
Concrete goal:
Development of eco-efficient systems - with the aim of building global leadership in new
industrial markets (including the service economy). Broader than just environmental
technologies
More focus on industry (putting eco-efficiency into action) and high level policy makers
(supportive instruments)
Chose investments in eco-efficient systems that are (or can become) highly competitive in
the global market
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How to make eco-efficiency
innovations happen in practice
Message 4: Innovation supporting policy context
Innovations for energy efficiency can only grow in a steady policy
environment providing strong incentives and clear messages (unless
the oil exporting countries and oil price speculation are doing the job
for us). High energy prices (but lower energy cost for the consumer
at the end!) are unfortunately part of such an innovation supporting
context.
See also:
Clean, Clever and Competitive
Presidency conclusions Informal Environment Council 1618 July 2004
www2.vrom.nl/docs/internationaal/IEC_Conclusions.pdf
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Potential for
energy
efficiency
improvement
in New EU
Members (1)
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Source: www.ceec-indicators.org
Potential for
energy
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improvement
in New EU
Members (2)
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Source: www.ceec-indicators.org
Message 5: Seize opportunities
The new EU Member States have through the renewal of their
production tools as well as the car and building stocks the chance to
take energy efficiency improvement very seriously into account.
Once this moment is over, the chance will only come back …30-100
years later
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Energy Efficiency R&D Fields for Co-operation
in the Weimar Triangle and beyond
 Setting a common and comprehensive European agenda for energy efficiency based on a
White Book for Energy Efficiency R&D aiming at a 1% improvement for energy efficiency per
year for at least half of this century. This strategy should include and bundle in particular
advances for energy efficiency in the fields of nanotechnologies, biotechnologies and material
sciences.
 Supporting "Lead Policies" such as the proposed Energy Service Directive that pave the
way for short as well as long-term energy efficiency improvements.
 Creating, in co-operation with industrial actors, innovation clusters /centres for excellence /
technology platforms in the field of energy efficiency
 Investigating behavioural aspects of efficient use of energy
 Extending monitoring and evaluation tools for energy efficiency such as ODYSSEE
(www.odyssee-indicators.org) and MURE (www.mure2.com) to New Member States (partially
ongoing)
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