Transcript DIAMOND East Timor scenario

DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Stephen Bocquet
Defence Systems Analysis Division
DSTO Australia
Outline
– East Timor
– INTERFET
– DIAMOND
– East Timor DIAMOND scenario
– Conclusions
East Timor
East Timor
– Former Portuguese colony, invaded by Indonesia
in 1975
– Between 100,000 and 230,000 East Timorese killed
by military action, famine and disease in the first
few years of Indonesian occupation
– August 1999 referendum: 78.5% vote for
independence
– September 1999 - Militias created and armed by
Indonesia unleash a wave of violence and
destruction. 500,000 people displaced from their
homes
INTERFET
– 12 September 1999 - Indonesia agrees to the
deployment of an international force in East Timor
– 14 September 1999 - Australia agrees to lead the
force
– 15 September 1999 - UN Security Council
Resolution 1264 under Chapter VII of UN Charter
authorises the establishment of the International
Force East Timor (INTERFET) to restore security
– 19 September 1999 - MAJGEN Cosgrove appointed
commander INTERFET
– 20 September 1999 - First INTERFET troops deploy
INTERFET operations
– Militia rounded up and disarmed in Dili in the first
week of operation
– Districts bordering West Timor secured in early
October by airmobile operations, supported by
amphibious landings of armoured vehicles and
other equipment
– 22 October 1999 - further airmobile / amphibious
operation to secure Oecussi enclave
– Several firefights with militia, but no sustained
combat
– 23 February 2000 - authority transferred to UN
Transitional Administration in East Timor
DIAMOND
– Diplomatic And Military Operations in a Nonwarfighting Domain
– Dstl (UK) high level simulation model for peace
support operations
– Object oriented, event stepped simulation
– Node and arc network
– Multiple ‘sides’ or parties, with a stochastic
representation of negotiation between them
– Each party has a command structure and
communications network
DIAMOND command structure
– High Level Commander
 Campaign progress
– ‘Component Commander’ (CC)
 Allocation of missions
and resources
High Level
Commander
CC
CC
– Intermediate Commander (IC)
 Operational Command of
individual missions
– Entities
 Prosecution of missions
IC
Entity
Entity
Entity
CC
DIAMOND missions
– Transport
– Escort
– Move
– Presence
– Evacuate
– Defend
– Intelligence
– Strike
– Engineering
– Secure
– Reserve
– Deny movement
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
– INTERFET operation 20 Sept 1999 - 23 February 2000
Scenario covers the first 5 weeks or so.
– Parties:
– INTERFET
– INTERFET B
– FALINTIL
– Indonesia
– Pro-integration Militia
– UN
– Civilians
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Relationships between the parties:
INTERFET
INTERFET B
UN
TNI
Militias
FALINTIL
Civilians
INTERFET
Friendly
Cooperative
Cooperative
Neutral
Hostile
Cooperative
Cooperative
INTERFET B
Friendly
Friendly
Cooperative
Neutral
Hostile
Cooperative
Cooperative
UN
Friendly
Friendly
Friendly
Neutral
Uncooperative
Cooperative
Cooperative
TNI
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Friendly
Friendly
Hostile
Neutral
Militias
Hostile
Uncooperative
Uncooperative
Cooperative
Friendly
Hostile
Hostile
FALINTIL
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Hostile
Hostile
Friendly
Cooperative
Civilians
Friendly
Friendly
Friendly
Neutral
Hostile
Friendly
Friendly
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Scenario covers:
– Deployment and operations of INTERFET
– Withdrawal of Indonesian forces
– Militia and FALINTIL activities
– Civilians
Not covered:
– Humanitarian operations (IOs / NGOs / INTERFET)
– Destruction & reconstruction of infrastructure
– Return of refugees
– Intelligence & Information ops
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
INTERFET Mission areas
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Amphibious operations represented by first moving
the unit to a sea node, then moving it to the beach.
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Fictitious ‘Airmobile Coy’ used to represent airmobile
operations. In DIAMOND infantry units will only board
helicopters if there is no ground route to their objective.
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Company Equivalent Units in East Timor
40
35
30
25
Indonesia
20
INTERFET
15
10
5
0
0
5
10
15
20
Day
25
30
35
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Cumulative Attrition
5000
4500
4000
Casualties
3500
3000
Civilians
Militia
INTERFET
FALINTIL
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
5
10
15
20
Time (Days)
25
30
35
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
– Attrition levels are far too high compared with the
actual operation.
– In most cases militia were arrested and disarmed,
rather than engaged in combat. The DIAMOND
combat model cannot represent this properly.
– In DIAMOND, combat halts all other activities in a
node. This is a particular problem in Dili, where
movements in and out continued while INTERFET
rounded up militia and secured the area.
Conclusions
– East Timor scenario could be further developed to
include more aspects of the operation
– DIAMOND needs improvement in
 Command structure
 Combat model
 Transport missions
– DIAMOND will be an effective tool for analysis of
peace support operations after some further
development. In particular the software needs to be
more robust.
DIAMOND East Timor scenario
Questions