Transcript Slide 1

Andhra Pradesh
An Approach to 12th Five Year Plan
Presentation by
Centre for Economic and Social Studies
Hyderabad
For
Government of Andhra Pradesh
2nd June 2012
12th Plan Objectives
• Faster growth: Targets a growth rate higher than
achieved in 11th Plan
• More inclusiveness growth: Broad-based growth
involving all sectors and all sections of people.
Facilitating and enhancing the ability of all
sections of society to contribute to and thereby
benefiting from growth
• Sustainability of growth
– resource conservation and efficient use
– Arresting environmental degradation
Structure and Growth of Economy
• Growth performance over its past is impressive, but
not consistent, in the recent past
• Per capita income of the state is higher than all-India
average during last decade.
• Declining share of agriculture (around 20%) in
GSDP
• Corresponding increase for the services sector
• Industrial sector share is stable at 20%
• Structural change in terms of employment is tardy –
still 54% of workforce engaged in agriculture
• Poverty reduction is one of the faster especially in
the rural sector.
Growth of Economy
Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product of Andhra Pradesh and All India by Major Sectors
Andhra Pradesh
All India
Period
AGRI
IND
SER GSDP AGRI IND
SER GDP
2000-01
12.7
2.9
7.6
7.9
0.0
6.0
5.1
4.1
2001-02
-1.7
4.5
7.4
4.1
6.0
2.6
6.6
5.4
2002-03
-7.2
8.2
6.1
2.9
-6.6
7.2
6.7
3.9
2003-04
14.3
6.1
7.8
9.0
9.0
7.3
7.9
8.0
2004-05
4.2
12.3
7.9
8.0
0.2
9.8
8.3
7.1
2005-06
6.1
10.1
11.0
9.6
5.1
9.7
10.9
9.5
2006-07
2.0
17.6
12.5
11.2
4.2
12.2
10.1
9.6
2007-08
17.4
10.9
10.3
12.0
5.8
9.7
10.3
9.3
2008-09 (R)
0.8
7.1
9.5
6.9
0.1
4.4
10.0
6.7
2009-10 (P)
1.3
6.4
7.7
6.0
1.0
8.4
10.5
8.4
2010-11 (Q)
9.0
9.2
10.7
10.0
7.0
7.2
9.3
8.4
2011-12 (A)
-1.5
7.3
9.8
6.8
2.5
3.9
9.4
6.9
10th Plan (2002-07) Average
3.9
10.9
9.1
8.1
2.4
9.2
8.8
7.6
11th Plan (2007-12) Average
5.4
8.2
9.6
8.3
3.3
6.7
9.9
7.9
Decadal Average (2002-2012)
4.6
9.5
9.3
8.2
2.8
8.0
9.3
7.8
Source: Central Statistical Office, Govt. India and Directorate of Economics Statistics, Govt. of AP.
Structure of Employment and Poverty
Non-Agriculture
100%
80%
30.7
31.4
32.9
43.5
41.5
48.5
Agriculture
45.2
46.8
60%
40%
69.3
68.6
67.1
56.5
58.5
51.5
54.8
53.2
AP
India
AP
India
AP
India
AP
India
20%
Structural change in
Employment is very
slow
0%
1983
1993-94
Poverty Head Count Ratio
1993-94 2004-05
2009-10
Andhra Pradesh
Rural
48.1
32.3
20.7
Urban
35.2
23.4
14.9
All
44.6
29.9
19.0
All India
Rural
50.1
41.8
36.4
Urban
31.8
25.7
20.8
All
45.3
37.2
32.2
2004-05
2009-10
% points change/Annum
1993-2004 2004-20010
-1.44
-1.07
-1.34
-2.33
-1.70
-2.17
-0.75
-0.56
-0.74
-1.07
-0.99
-1.00
Faster decline of poverty
in rural sector
Issues and Concerns
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Acceleration of Economic Growth - GSDP/per capita income
Poverty – income/non-income dimensions
Inequality – economic and social
Agrarian crisis/distress
Education – literacy, Schooling and higher education
Health and Nutrition
Disparities and Divides – social groups and regional
Migration – Distress led
Urbanisation - Urban Quality of Life
Harnessing demographic dividend – Skill Development
Economic Infrastructure – Physical and financial
– Connectivity – Roads and Transportation
• Shortage of power acting as a constraint
Growth alternatives for 12th Plan
Growth alternatives for 12th Paln
X Plan
Past growth rates
S-1 (9%)
10.0
11.5
10.0
6.0
5.0
XI Plan
GSDP
9.0
10.5
9.0
Service
8.2
9.6
8.3
Industry
5.4
3.9
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
10.9
9.1
8.1
Agriculture
S-2 (10.0%)
Growth Altrernative for 2012-17
Sectoral growth scenarios generating alternative GSDP growth
rates of 9.0%, and 10.0% during 12th Five Year Plan.
GSDP of AP at Constant (2010-11) Prices
11000.0
at 9%
at 10%
10056.0
10000.0
9141.8
9519.8
9000.0
8310.8
8000.0
7555.2
6868.4
7000.0
6244.0
6000.0
5676.4
8733.8
8012.6
7351.1
6744.1
6187.2
5676.4
5000.0
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Strategies for Agriculture
• Institutional support for purchase of input and output
procurement through SHG type organisations
• Technological support
– soil testing
– micro irrigation (drip and sprinkle systems)
• Soil fertility management
• Micro nutrients
• Municipal solid waste potential source of compost
• Infrastructure development to reduce post harvest losses
– Storage and warehouse
– Private sector participation
• Extension service
• Price, input information management through SMS
Agriculture - Crop Production and Horticulture
Crop Diversification
• Promotion of agro-processing industry and agri-business.
• Improvements in the functioning of the institutions related to markets, credit and
agricultural research.
• Enhancing investment in infrastructure, viz. cold storage facilities, roads, ports.
• Crop diversification is predominant under tube wells irrigation - water use efficiency
need to be promoted further through micro-irrigation practices.
• Productivity
• Potential for higher fertilizer consumption in agriculturally backward mandals that
need to be identified and focused.
• Distribution density of fertilizer sale point and functioning of for fertilizers market
need to be improved.
• Adequate availability of fertilisers at the right time at normal price and to ensure
quality of pesticides needs an intervention
• Inputs like fertilizers, irrigation and credit are complementary in nature. Irrigated
area increase leads to increase in demand for fertilizers
• Extension services needs to be improved for better cultivation practices and
appropriate application of fertilisers and pesticides.
Land resources
•
Erosion of land resource is one
of the causes of agricultural
crisis.
•
Per capita availability of
cultivable land and net sown
area have declined over the years
•
AP has large area of
underutilised land as well as
degraded land
•
Decline in average size of
holdings
•
Increase in marginal and small
size holdings
Changes in
1990-91
2004-05
Per capita availability of land (ha)
.24
0.20
Net area sown (%)
41.0
36.7
Net irrigated area (% of NSA)
36
42 (2009-10)
Underutilised land as % of cultivable
35.0
28.0
area
Degraded land = 7 % of geographical area and 12 % of cultivable area
Distribution of land
Size of holdings
Marginal and small
Semi-medium and medium
Large
Average size of holdings (ha)
2000-01
% to total
no. of
holdings
2005-06
% to total % to total % to total
area
no. of
area
operated holdings operated
82.7
16.6
46.4
46.2
83.5
16
48.4
32.2
0.6
7.5
0.5
16.4
1.25
1.20
• Underutilized and fallow lands can be brought under cultivation by improving
irrigation facilities , water shed development, land use planning, etc.
• Treatment of degraded land requires watershed development, micro nutrient
management and organic farming, improving water use efficiency. Needs large
investment.
Livestock Sector
• AP is one of the largest in livestock –10% of the country’s
livestock.
• Largest producer of Eggs and Meat, and second largest in Milk
production- 11.2 million tons of milk, 20 billion eggs, and 0.74
million tons of meat
• Livestock sub-sector contributes 5.6% of GSDP and 26% AgriGSDP and grown at 8.6% during 11th Plan.
• Strengthening of State Milk Mission
• Issues
–
–
–
–
–
Cross-breeding varieties – for improving productivity
Fodder and Feed
Availability of Veterinary services
Marketing of livestock products – supply chain
Cold Storages
Strategies for Allied Sectors
• Fisheries (Inland) – 12.6 lakh tons
–
–
–
–
–
–
Improvements Area and productivity
Investment to maintain Health and Sanitary standards
Improvement in both international and domestic market chains \
Seed farms, infrastructure for larger reservoir etc
Investments to improve retail market chains Marine Fisheries
welfare programmes
• Fisheries (Marine) – 2.6 lakh tons
–
–
–
–
Reduce pressure on inshore and diversification to offshore
Diversification to deep sea (offshore) fishing -sea farming, mariculture
More welfare oriented programmes given the dependency of 15 lakh
people.
Investments for clean water, better ice supply, cold storage, toilets,
landing, marketing and drying facilities, post harvest technology, and
value addition activities, relief during fishing ban period, insurance.
Strategy for Industry
Manufacturing sector – MSME
• Enhance the productivity of MSMEs through clusters. This removes regional
imbalances in industrial development
• Create more institutions for clusters with PPP model
Creation of Clusters
• Pharma Cluster – Hyderabad (already approved)
• Auto component cluster – Vijayawada (already approved)
• Marine Food Processing cluster – Bheemavaram
• Powerloom cluster – Siricilla
• Leather cluster - Hyderabad
• Precision and Engineering tools cluster – Rangareddy
Agro-based potential
• Dairy value chain – employment generation for micro and small entrepreneurs
• Poultry/Meat value chain - employment generation for micro and small
entrepreneurs
• Horticulture huge potential.
• Promoting Rural Business hubs – agriculture and non-agriculture products
Power Sector Strategy
• Demand for electricity is increasing - uninterrupted supply of
electricity especially in rural areas is a challenge.
• Meeting increasing demand for power is a major challenge – A
moderate estimate indicate 3 times increase in per capita
consumption by the end of 12th plan from that of 2009-10.
• Needs large scale investment in power – PPP approach would be
useful.
• Utilisation of alternate renewable energy system is low – Tidal,
Wind and Solar: need to be promoted
• State being the Gas-hub of India - natural gas resources of the state
can be utilised for power sector.
• Promoting captive power plants for industries.
• Further strengthening of DISCOMs
• Modernisation of transmission infrastructure – reduces T&D loss.
Strategy for Infrastructure
Road Connectivity
• Expansion of road network in rural area – facilitating rural industry
• Extension of width for roads connecting industrial towns.
• Better Transportation System – inter-district and intra-district.
Rail Connectivity
• Railway line between Bhadrachalam and Sattupalli linking coal reserves.
• Railway line – Karimnagar and Nizamabad – granite industry of North
Telangana
• Railway line between Jaggaihpet and Mellacheruvu - connecting cement
industry.
Ports and Industrial Development
• Developing Minor Ports
• Developing potentials of Port/export based industries.
• Ancillary industrial growth can take place around Krishnapatnam and
Machilipatnam ports by providing better infrastructural facilities.
IT and Tourism Sector
I T Sector
• IT and IT enabled services are the fast growing sector.
• Concentrated in Metropolitan cities especially in Hyderabad.
• Need to be diversified into Tier II and III cities – IT Parks in these
cities
• Promoting ICT in Governance and Service Delivery.
Tourism
• Tourism has been one of the emerging and priority sectors.
• Identifying and development of Tourist places with appropriate
infrastructure along with safety and security.
• Development of Hospitality industry and Transport Connectivity
• Tourist packages
• Of late, “Medical Tourism” has been picking up, especially in
Hyderabad – it has to further nurtured.
Education - Literacy
• State cannot achieve 100% literacy rate even by 2050, unless Adult literacy
programme targets illiterates above 35 year olds - currently 15-35 age group
illiterates are targeted.
• More than formal literacy in terms of reading and writing, functional literacy is
important among adults.
• Primers of literacy has to be developed such a way to achieve functional literacy
- it must include numeracy, financial literacy, computer literacy.
• Enable all to utilise Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in their
daily life.
2050
Scenarios of literacy in AP
2047
2044
2041
2038
Variant I
2035
2032
2029
Variant II
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
Variant III
2026
105.0
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
Variant I – Without any policy
initiative.
Variant II – Policy initiative: Adult
literacy programme targeting 1535 years olds
Variant III – Policy initiative of
adult literacy programme
Targeting 15-59 years olds
Education - Schooling
• AP’s performance in school education is relatively better
• Short fall (5%) in universalisation of elementary education – due to nonenrolment and dropouts.
• Focus on hardcore residual group of children - rural, urban slums, and
SC/ST, poor, female headed and migrant households.
• It needs a policy to develop enabling mechanism – household
characteristics specific interventions and incentives.
• New focus on universalisation of Secondary Education - RMSA.
• Incentives such as – textbooks, uniforms, scholarship, bicycles etc. for
improving enrolment.
• Infrastructure: Buildings, Classrooms, Black boards, water & sanitation,
playground etc.,
• Teacher-Pupil Ratio – gap at secondary level; focus on subject specific
teachers
• Laboratories and libraries at secondary and higher secondary/intermediate
education and for vocational courses
Harnessing Demographic Dividend
Skill Development
• Changing distribution of population by age group – increasing share of
working age (15-59) group and corresponding decline in the share of
dependents.
• Most of working age population is illiterate and without any technical skills less productive
• Most (45%) of the Workforce in the state is engaged in elementary occupations
without specialized skills - AP stands on the top next to Chhattisgarh in terms of
workforce engaged in elementary occupations.
• Growth gets constrained without adequate skilled and productive labour force especially the expansions of MSMEs sector
• Need for adult literacy and skill development programmes
• Targeting 15 to 35 years age population who are illiterates/semiliterates/unskilled/semi-skilled.
• Identifying and mapping of skills in demand in the job market/industry.
• Residential and day scholar courses - very short-term courses to long term
• Skill development of professional graduate – to improve their employability
Health – Maternal and Child Health
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Life cycle approach - Pregnancy, birth, and infancy to adolescence.
Issues - Anti-natal Care, Place of delivery, Infant mortality, Under nutrition.
Universalisation of Access – Anti-natal care, institutional delivery, immunization
– Increasing rate of anti-natal care- 96%, but only 67% of mothers had their first ANC
within first trimester.
– Increasing institutional delivery – 72% (66% in rural) but still large number of
children left out
– Complete immunization among 12-23 months olds is 67%.
Reduction of IMR and MMR and Malnutrition
– Declining Infant mortality at 46 in 2010 – but AP is having one of the highest IMR in
India.
– Maternal mortality - 154 (2006-09) -fifth lowest state.
– Nutritional status – anemia, under nutrition (around 2/5th of the children).
– Increasing anemic incidence (%) of women in the state.
Strengthening of ICDS program targeting 3 to 5 years age children – coverage and
functioning.
Strengthening of public sector primary health care centres especially in rural areas –
physical infrastructure, equipment, medicine, and staffing.
Need to develop and strengthen secondary and tertiary health care facilities.
Urban Challenges
• Distributive model of urban growth – focus on small and medium towns (CTs).
• Urban Infrastructure – Roads and Transportation , Traffic Congestion.
• Bus-Rapid Transportation System , MMTS and Metro Rail.
• Civic Amenities – Housing, Electricity, Water and Sanitation
• Urban Environment – Pollution, Solid Waster Management
• Slum Area Development - Around 25% of urban population lives in slums
• Slum Area Development programmes – housing and other civic amenities.
JNNURM
•At present, ten projects are being covered by JNNURM funds - road network,
storm water drains, bus rapid transit system, water supply, solid waste management,
sewage treatment, river and lake improvement, slum improvement and
rehabilitation.
•JNNURM is to addresses infrastructure and service delivery needs – but
monitoring mechanisms should be strengthened and decentralized.
•City of Hyderabad - very few of the infrastructure projects planned have been
delivered fully in the three years of the mission.
Governance - Decentralization
• Strong need to improve Implementation, Accountability, and Service
Delivery - Greater devolution and empowerment needed.
 The delegation of 3 ‘F’s (Functions, Functionaries and Finances) still inadequate.
 Activity mapping based on the principle of ‘subsidiarity’ and ‘economies of scale’
is done only in the case of nine departments.
 In recent years CSS (Central Sponsored Scheme) have to come to dominate
planned expenditures even in what are traditionally state services such as
education, health and water and sanitation.
 In practise, internal revenue mobilisation at the Panchayat level is weak; PRIs
largely depend on transfers from the state and central governments, and hence
limited discretion.
 District Planning Committees – AP was the late starter with regard to constitution
of DPC and are active where BRGF (Backward Areas Grant Fund) funds are
flowing.
 There is no separate window for the Panchayat in the State Budget.
 A Silver lining in the other wise dismal picture is that recently Government issued
rules for the PESA (Panchayat Raj Extension to Scheduled Areas) implementation.
 Weak alignment between funds, functions and functionaries has not generated
23
conditions for accountable governance of local bodies in AP.
Welfare Programs – CSS and State
• Need to focus on synergy between various schemes
• More frequent monitoring
Centrally Sponsored Scheme
• ICDS/Mid-day-Meal
• SSA/RMSA
• MGNREGS
• Indira Awas Yojana
• JNNURM
State Programmes
• PDS
• Rajiv Arogyasri Scheme (RAS)
• Scholarships/Fee Reimbursement
• Indira Kranthi Patham (IKP)
• INDIRAMMA
Total Investment and State Plan
Total Investment
Trend in State Plan Size
600000
9.0
Past trends
120000
10.0
509344
591884
436138
502222
373598
426305
9.0
10.0
11-th Plan
12-th plan
91682
106539
67248
76735
57628
65161
20000
49404
55354
40000
78505
90400
80000
60000
0
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Estimates made using current ICORs
under the assumption of constant
efficiency of investment.
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12 (BE)
120000
2010-11 (RE)
State Plan (18% of total investment)
0
2009-10
20000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
100000
60000
40000
0
Investment Rs. Crores
Projected (10%)
80000
2008-09
100000
320153
362004
300000
200000
Projected (9%)
100000
400000
2007-8
500000
274465
307525
Investment Rs. Crores
700000
Financing the Plan
Composition of aggregate Plan Resources
• In the 11th plan, state own resources have sharply declined 47%
• Borrowings increased from 24% to 40% of the total resources.
• Central assistance constituted around 13% of the aggregate
resources.
• Outstanding debt/GSDP ratio is below FRBM norm
• Yet Borrowings is a Bleak Source of Plan Finance – large
future repayment obligations of market loans due to earlier debt
swap scheme; repayment obligations will be more than double
2017-18
• The state has to focus on augmentation of revenues buoyancies,
tolerable level of fiscal deficit and controlling non-plan
expenditure.
Beyond the Approach
Effective Implementation of the Plan
• To achieve the targets set out in the Plan,
constant monitoring is imperative
• Such monitoring should be based on innovative
approaches
– Result Based Management
– Biannual Monitoring
– Independent Sample Surveys
– Forecasting
Beyond the Approach
Results-Framework-Document
• Basic questions
– What is the objective of the program/department?
– What actions are planned?
– What is progress in each year?
• RFD will be consistent with GoI guidelines
• Drawing detail action plan with monitorable
indicators of progress
• Key Programs of the Plan will be identified based
on
– Investments
– Social Welfare
Beyond the Approach
Annual/Biannual Review
• Independent review of the progress of flagship
programs- annual/biannual (to be decided)
• Programes to be reviewed will be identified on
annual basis – varies year-to-year
• This will be based on quick field survey and
secondary data
– Physical indicators
– Financial indicators
– Process indicators if needed
• The main objective this would be to receive
feed back and identify bottle necks
Beyond the Approach
Independent Sample Surveys and Forecasting
Independent Sample Surveys
• Evaluation and Impact Assessment of selected
programmes/schemes
• Surveys - Cross section and/or Panel based
• Surveys can be region/area or community/social group
specific – focussing on relevant issues.
Monitoring
• To monitor a few important macro economic indicators
and forecast
• Monitoring
– Sectoral growth
– Price movements
– Investment requirements
 Forecasting of GSDP Growth – Overall and Sectoral.
Thank You