Transcript Generic title slide -

Energy Requirements and Planning in North America:
2018
The Trilateral Commission, North American Regional Meeting
November 22, 2008
Hal Kvisle
President and CEO
TransCanada Corporation
Forward-Looking Information
This presentation may contain certain information that is forward looking and is subject to
important risks and uncertainties. The words "anticipate", "expect", "may", "should",
"estimate", "project", "outlook", "forecast" or other similar words are used to identify such
forward-looking information. All forward-looking statements reflect TransCanada’s beliefs
and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made.
Actual results or events may differ from those predicted in these forward-looking statements.
Factors which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current
expectations include, among other things, the ability of TransCanada to successfully
implement its strategic initiatives and whether such strategic initiatives will yield the
expected benefits, the operating performance of the Company’s pipeline and energy assets,
the availability and price of energy commodities, regulatory processes and decisions, changes
in environmental and other laws and regulations, competitive factors in the pipeline and
energy industry sectors, construction and completion of capital projects, labour, equipment
and material costs, access to capital markets, interest and currency exchange rates,
technological developments and the current economic conditions in North America. By its
nature, such forward-looking information is subject to various risks and uncertainties, which
could cause TransCanada's actual results and experience to differ materially from the
anticipated results or expectations expressed. Additional information on these and other
factors is available in the reports filed by TransCanada with Canadian securities regulators
and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Readers are cautioned not to place
undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is given as of the date it is
expressed in this presentation or otherwise, and to not use future-oriented information or
financial outlooks for anything other than their intended purpose. TransCanada undertakes
no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Pipelines
Proposed Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
Power plants:
Gas (52%)
Nuclear (23%)
Coal (15%)
Hydro (5%)
MacKay River
Bear Creek
Wind (5%)
Alberta
System
Redwater
Sundance A&B
Foothills/BC
Carseland
Sheerness
Northern
Border
Cancarb
Cartier Wind
Canadian Mainline
Great Lakes
GTN System
Keystone
Tuscarora
Kibby Wind Grandview
TQM
Bécancour
Portland
Portlands
TC Hydro
Halton Hills
Ocean
Iroquois
State
Bruce Power
Ravenswood
Pipeline and Energy
Assets
Pipelines
• 59,000 km (36,500 mi) of
wholly-owned natural gas
pipeline, and interests in an
additional 7,800 km (4,800 mi)
• 235 Bcf of regulated natural
gas storage capacity
• Average daily volume of 15 Bcf
• Keystone oil pipeline 1.1
MMb/d
Energy
North Baja
Coolidge
ANR
• 19 power plants, 10,900 MW
• Diversified portfolio, primarily
low-cost, baseload generation
Tamazunchale
• 120 Bcf of non-regulated
natural gas storage capacity
North American Petroleum Overview
2007/2030 (MMb/d)
2007
Production
2030
Net Petroleum
Imports/Exports
CANADA
3.3
0.9
5.5
3.2
2.5
2.4
13.5 21.5
13.7 21.0
8.0
7.3
USA
MEXICO
3.3 1.4
2.1
3.3
3.3
0
Demand
Crude Oil: Canada Production Forecast
6000
Actual
Forecast
2007 CAPP
Forecast
5000
4000
In-Situ
3000
2000
Mining
Eastern Canada
1000
Conventional Heavy
Reference: CAPP June 2008 Canadian Crude Oil
Production & Supply Forecast (2008-2020)
20
20
19
20
18
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
20
11
20
20
10
Pentane
s
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
20
00
0
12
Conventional Light
Crude Oil: Canada Exported 1.8 MMb/d Worth
$41 Billion to the U.S. in 2007
2007 Crude Oil Demand
(MMb/d)
Canada
U.S.
Mexico
2.0
1.5
2.3
20.8
2.0
MMb/d
Canadian Crude
Exports
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Pipelines
Proposed Pipelines
Keystone Oil
Pipeline
Gas Storage Facilities
Keystone System*
• 1,090,000 B/d capacity
Hardisty
Keystone
• 830,000 B/d binding
contractual commitments
for an average term of 18
years
• Future expansion potential
Keystone
Gulf Coast
Expansion
to 1,500,000 B/d capacity
Steele City
Patoka
Wood River
Cushing
• US$12.2 billion,
TransCanada 79%
• In service 2009 – 2012
Houston
Port
Arthur
* Comprises Keystone and Keystone Gulf Coast
Expansion. Keystone in construction
Keystone
Under Construction
Schedule:
2008 Construction
• Conversion
• 4 pipeline spreads
• 27 pump stations
• 3 tanks
2009 Construction
• 7 pipeline spreads
• 40 pump stations
• 3 terminals
2010 Construction
• 3 pipeline spreads
• 50 pump stations
North American Gas Demand
Bcf/d
100
History
90
Forecast
80
70
Electric Generation
60
50
Residential &
Commercial
40
30
20
Industrial
10
0
1990
Other
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
North American Gas Supply
Bcf/d
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
History
Forecast
Eastern Canada
Demand
LNG
North
WCSB
U.S. Rockies
Gulf of Mexico
U.S. Other
Mexico
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
ALASKA
MACKENZIE
DELTA
Natural Gas Basins
Shale Gas Basins
North American
Natural Gas
Resources
Muskwa, Besa & Horn
River Shales
Montney
Shale
WCSB
Colorado Group
Shales
Utica, Trenton Black River &
Marcellus Shale
WILLISTON
BASIN
UINTA BASIN
PARADOX BASIN
SAN JUAN BASIN
Lewis & Mancos
Shale
Atrim Shale
DENVER
BASIN
ANADARKO
BASIN
ILLINOIS
BASIN
APPALACHIAN
BASIN
New Albany
Shale
Ohio Shale
Feyetteville Shale
Woodford Shale
Barnett Shale
BLACK WARRIOR
BASIN
MISSISSIPI
SALT BASIN
Haynesville
Shale
FT.
WORTH
BASIN
GULF COAST
BASIN
• Major conventional
natural gas basins in
North America marked
in green
• Emerging shale natural
gas basins (marked in
brown) in North America
may add significant
supply
Pipelines
Proposed Pipelines
Gas Storage Facilities
North American
Natural Gas Supply
Conventional Shale
Non Conventional Shale
• Flow patterns will shift
• Committed to playing a
role in meeting the growing
needs for energy
infrastructure
• Progressing options for
Midwest and Northeast U.S.
markets to access
incremental supply from
the largest continental
basins
• Leveraging our existing,
integrated footprint across
North America to deliver
the most cost-effective and
timely solutions
Western Canada Gas Supply and Demand
Bcf/d
25
Alaska
20
Mackenzie Delta
15
Unconventional
Conventional
10
Demand
5
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Natural Gas: Canada Exported 10.5 Bcf/d
Worth $28 Billion to the U.S. in 2007
2007 Natural Gas Demand
(Bcf/d)
Canada
U.S.
Mexico
12
10
8.5
62.1
5.8
Bcf/d
Canadian
Exports to U.S.
8
6
4
2
0
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Potential Mexico Pipeline Projects
Tijuana
Mexicali
Legend
Naco
Chihuahua Pipeline
CD Juarez
Tamazunchale Pipeline
Pemex Pipeline
Nogales
Private Open Access Pipeline
Potential Projects
Chihuahua
Guaymas
Reynosa
Topolobampo
Tamazunchale Expansion
and Extension
Monterrey
Mazatlán
Guadalajara
Pipeline
Poza Rica to Santa Ana
Pipeline
Altamira
Mérida
Cancun
Guadalajara
Valladolid
Poza Rica
Tula
Toluca
Mexico City
Manzanillo
Veracruz
Lázaro
Cárdenas
Salina Cruz