Transcript R020415 - Harvard Electricity Policy Group
March 2, 2004
HARVARD ELECTRICITY POLICY GROUP Natural Gas and Electricity
CALPINE
Ron Walter Executive Vice President
CALPINE
CALPINE CORPORATION — THE FIRST 20 YEARS Largest Independent Power Company in North America Most Modern, Efficient Fleet of Power Generation Assets 87 Plants, 22,130 mw in Operation Today Growing to Over 30,000 mw in 2006 Proved Gas Reserves – 1 tcf Assets Managed by Calpine Energy Services 3.4% of U.S. Electrical Consumption 3% of U.S. Natural Gas Supply R020415 March 2, 2004 1
CALPINE
CALPINE’S GROWING PORTFOLIO
Net Megawatts 7,860 4,040 9,750 2,630 15,200 13,400 19,050 22,130 25,680 27,090 29,720 4,400 3,355 1999 5,849 2000 11,130 2001 2002 In Operation 2003 In Construction 2004
Assumes No New Projects
2005 2006
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CALPINE
CALPINE’S POWER PORTFOLIO
1 1 1 1 39 3 1 1
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87 13
In Operation Under Construction 12 - New Projects 1 - Expansion Projects
1 1 10 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 4 2 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1
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CALPINE
MOST EFFICIENT NORTH AMERICAN POWER GENERATION FLEET Combined-Cycle Megawatts By Company
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Calpine Duke (2) FPL (1) FPL (2) Southern Operation (2) Xcel (2) Construction Southern (1) Progress (1) Exelon (2)
(1) Regulated (2) Non-Regulated Source: Company Data R020415 March 2, 2004 4
CALPINE
Natural Gas Will Remain the Fuel of Choice for Power Generation
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CALPINE
THE PRICE OF NATURAL GAS WILL BE REASONABLE Responds Well to Market Forces Spot Prices vs. Long-Term Prices Expected Range of Prices < $2.50/mmbtu – No New Investment > $5.00/mmbtu – New Supply Calpine Strategy to Manage Price Risk R020415 March 2, 2004 6
CALPINE
THE SUPPLY OF NATURAL GAS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT Proven Reserves Don’t Tell the Whole Story 2003 Report of Potential Gas Committee 1,311 Trillion Cubic Feet 65X Annual Production Rate 3.3% Increase in Supply From 2000 New Supply Eastern Canada Deep Gulf MacKenzie Delta Alaska LNG LNG Large World Resource Base U.S. Deliverability 1 bcf 2003 4 bcf 2004 9 bcf 2007 R020415 March 2, 2004 7
CALPINE
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION FOR POWER GENERATION GROWING MODESTLY New Natural Gas-Fired Plants are 40% More Efficient During the Height of the New Power Plant Additions January 2002 – January 2003 Megawatt-Hours Increased by 8% Gas Consumption Increased by 2% Less Efficient Plants are Being Displaced / Retired R020415 March 2, 2004 8
CALPINE
ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF NATURAL GAS Lower Air Emissions 98.7% Less NOx Than Coal 99.9% Less SO 2 65% Less CO 2 100% Less Mercury Lower Land Use 40% – 60% Lower Water Consumption Reduces Global Warming R020415 March 2, 2004 9
CALPINE
MARKET FORCES ARE BEST DRIVER FOR CHOICES ON FUEL USE Government Intervention Has Not Been Successful Nuclear Energy Fuel Use Act Clean Coal Renewable Standards Economics and Environmental Considerations Should Shape Fuel Use Supply and Price of Natural Gas Will Best be Moderated by Market Forces R020415 March 2, 2004 10