Transcript Environmentally Forced Migration from PICS. How many
Environmentally Forced Migration From PICS.
How many, where from, where too?
John Campbell
Department of Geography, Tourism and Environmental Planning
UNESCO/APMRN/School of Governance and Development Studies/FBE Workshop on Climate Change Related Migration
24 April 2020
Global Context
As RDB mentioned yesterday this is similar order of magnitude to likely projected migrants. This suggests CC will cause a doubling of migrant flows.
Range of estimates
Norman Myers (2002):
50 million by 2010 200 million ‘when global warming takes hold’
Brown (2008)
Good (B1 scenario) : increased migration of between 5 and 10 per cent along existing routes
Bad (A1B): dramatic increases in internal migration and international migration
Ugly (A1F1): predictions of 200 million people displaced by climate change might easily be exceeded.
IPCC doesn’t predict
Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration (AR4, p. 317)
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How many and where from?
Atolls
Populations easiest to determine
Not all atolls are the same Many ‘atolls’ are raised limestone islands of varying elevation
Coasts
Much more difficult to determine which coastal areas may be impacted on higher islands
Riverine areas
River flooding most likely to be an issue in larger islands, especially, but not confined to, the plate boundary islands
Delta communities affected from both directions
Drought prone areas
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Atolls
204 atolls in the region (Pernetta, 1990)
Total population 250-300,000
4 political units entirely comprised of atolls (and in some cases low-lying raised limestone islands):
Marshall Islands
Kiribati Tuvalu Tokelau While there is considerable risk associated with atolls their fate is not known with absolute certainty.
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8 others have atolls as well as high islands:
Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands New Caledonia Federated States of Micronesia Palau American Samoa Cook Islands French Polynesia Tonga
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Population Projections: Atoll Countries
2009: 165,313 2050: 240,000
180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year RMI Tuvalu
2035 2040 2045 2050 Source of Data: SPC (2009)
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Coastal Communities
Tendency toward coastal settlement patterns in most PICs
Exception: PNG high population densities in highland interior
Many (but not all) coastal communities on high islands have rights to elevated land and can relocate within customary territories
Numerous delta communities especially in Melanesia
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Non coastal communities: PNG
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Highlands: higher CPD Lowlands: low CPD Outer Islands: moderate CPD But … Highlands more prone to frosts/drought
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Where too?
Internally
Atolls → Capitals or High islands Coasts → Inland and up River flood plains → Up
International
Atoll countries → Pacific high island countries (3 precendents)
Atoll countries and territory → freely associated ones* (previous) Colonial countries and
Australia, France, NZ*, UK, USA* Atoll countries → Pacific rim countries
New Zealand, Australia, USA, others?
Atoll countries → Any other takers
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International Relocation
Only instances have been in the colonial era
Gilbert and Ellis Islands to:
Solomon Islands
Kioa (Fiji)
Rabi (Fiji)
At the destination communities had to be:
displaced (or had been previously displaced), or
➨
lose land to make way for relocatees.
unresolved grievances
Likely to be extremely difficult in the independence era
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Banaba to Rabi
Banaba devastated by phosphate minning
1945
Post-war
Southwest Pacific High Commission
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What happened to the original people of Rabi?
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In the news 2007 … Relocated Fiji Villagers Want Rabi Island Back
PACIFIC ISLANDS REPORT
Pacific Islands Development Program/East-West Center, With Support From Center for Pacific Islands Studies/University of Hawai‘i
SUVA, Fiji (Fijilive, June 5 [2007]) – The traditional inhabitants of Rabi Island who were relocated to Fiji’s third largest island of Taveuni after World War II now want to reclaim Rabi.
The villagers, now living in Lovonivonu, have asked the Interim Government to help them in their fight to get their island back.
Village spokesman Viliame Seru said the villagers have wanted to return to Rabi for a long time and have gone as far Sydney, Australia in search of evidence and legal advice on the matter.
Fijilive: http://www.fijilive.com
RELOCATION OFTEN CREATES FESTERING WOUNDS
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For environmentally forced migrants
There is no home to which to be repatriated.
Though may be other places in the home country.
But, how likely will third countries to be queuing up as destinations:
In 2007 according to UNHCR there were:
11.39 million refugees*
14 third countries accepted refugees for resettlement
A total of 75,300
0.66 per cent * This figure includes Palestinian refugees that do not fall under the auspices of UNHCR but excludes internally displaced people, asylum seekers, etc., the number swells to little less than 30 million
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Reasons for environmentally forced migration from PICs
Loss of habitability
Loss of land Loss of water security Loss of food security Repeated floods, storms and or droughts
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Loss of settlement security
Possible scenarios or any combination thereof Atolls become uninhabitable (erosion, water shortages, food shortages) Coastal locations become uninhabitable (erosion, increased freq/magnitude of inundations) Riverine locations (especially deltas) become uninhabitable (increased frequency / magnitude of floods) Inland areas become subjected to successive droughts of high magnitude
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But … is migration good enough
Individuals, families and groups migrate
What happens when whole community is forced to leave?
Can it retain:
Social cohesion
Kinship relations
Moral economy
Visceral link to the land (land, which in the extreme case, may no longer exist)
My concern is: Can communities be relocated?
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What is community relocation?
Important to distinguish community relocation from other concepts such as evacuation, displacement, migration and environmental refugee, although there is often some overlap in the meanings of these notions.
The definition adopted is ‘a process by which a number of … people from one locale come to live together in a different locale.’ (After Lieber, 1977: 343).
Key element: community integrity maintained .
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Key issues in community relocation in PICs
Importance of land
At origin
And destination (if in PICs)
The role of colonial governments
Enabled ‘international’ relocation Often decisions were made to suit colonial government rather than the relocatees
Ambrym to Epi (New Hebrides Condominium)
Sense of loss
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A note on land
Just because a country has elevated land doesn’t mean that land is freely available to those who have no customary rights.
Overlooked by many external observers concerned with environmentally forced migration.
May lead to increases in the numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in PICs.
May lead to tensions among different groups within PICs.
May result in increased demand for international migration / resettlement options.
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Costs of Community Relocation
Unsuccessful Adaptation?
Beyond international border Within nation but beyond island or province Proximate beyond land boundaries
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Proximate within customary lands Distance from origin
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An atoll somewhere in Oceania
What’s left?
What community?
What culture?
What land/society relationship?
ACCELERATED climate change may present us with NEW problems that Maybe even Australia existing and historical experience simply can’t explain National capital Suva Auckland / Wellington
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Conclusions
• •
Community relocation is extremely difficult Community relocation is extremely costly
Increase with distance
There are long term costs
Tensions over land do not recede Getting water up hill … forever Sense of loss
International relocation will be extremely difficult if not impossible
Community disintegration Loss of culture The idea that communities will be able to successfully adapt by relocating cannot be used to allow countries to abrogate their responsibilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
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Final Note
A discourse of vulnerability has emerged about islands and island countries.
Natural hazards
Climate change
Economies
But, at the community level there are tremendous levels of resilience that have been evidenced over centuries of radical change, although some may be eroding.
Nevertheless, it is critical that these resiliences are not overlooked in planning for climate change.
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Vinaka Vakalevu
WWW.WAIKATO.AC.NZ
0800 WAIKATO
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In our neighbourhood
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Current response to refugees
(i) UNHCR protects, assists and seeks durable solutions for refugees. The three main solutions are voluntary repatriation to the home country; (ii) local integration in the country of asylum; and (iii) resettlement in a third country. Voluntary repatriation is generally considered as the preferred option of the three.
Source UNHCR (2007)
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Category of forced displacement Total (millions)
Refugees under UNHCR mandate Refugees under UNRWA mandate
Total number of refugees
Conflict-generated IDPs Natural disaster IDPs
Total number of IDPs Total number of refugees and IDPs
11.4
4.6
16.0
26.0
25.0
51.0
67.0
Refugees today
Estimated Number of Asylum Seekers, Refugees and Other of Concern to UNHCR, 1st Jan 2007 Asia 14,910,900 Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Northern America Oceania TOTAL 9,752,600 3,426,700 1,143,100 3,542,500 85,700 32,861,500
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The IPCC View:
Source: IPCC, AR4, p. 368
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‘International Migration’
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The only other comparison: Maldives
600 000 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
2030 2035 2040 2045 DataSource:http://www.maldivespartnershipforum.gov.mv/pdf/Population%20Projections.pdf
Crude Population Densities
2000 1500 1000 500 0 Kiribati Marshall Islands Tuvalu Tokelau Maldives