Industry Employment Series National Projections

NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PROJECTIONS SYSTEM Industry Projections

Commutation Ratios

Population Projections

OES Survey Industry / Occupation Matrix Change & SEUF Factors

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End Product Occupational Projections Labor Force Projections

Vital Statistics Census Data Labor Force Participation Rates

Population and Labor Force Projections for New Jersey: 2006 to 2025

2006-2016

2000-2006 1990-2000

Population Projections

Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2016

0.97% 0.94% 1.24% 2006-2016

2000-2006 1990-2000

0.45% 0.47% 0.85%

• New Jersey’s 2006-2016 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

Population Projections

 New Jersey’s total population is projected to increase by 0.45% per annum, on average, from 2006 to 2016.

 The state’s rate of population growth will be 0.58% per annum between 2016 and 2025.

Rate of NJ Population Growth: 1980-2025

0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.49%

1980-1990

0.85% 0.47%

1990-2000 2000-2006

0.45% 0.58%

2006-2016 2016-2025

Population Projections

2016-2025 Components of Population Change: New Jersey, 2000 to 2025

118,400

370,700

-36,900

2006-2016

435,900

2000-2006

250,800

1,000

Natural Increment Net Migration

Population Projections

• Population aged 18-39 and 55+ will grow substantially.

NJ Population Change by Age 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Under 5 5-17 18-39 40-54 55-69 70+ 2000-2006 2006-2016

Population Projections

New Jersey Population by Age: 2006 and 2016 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 600 400

2006

200 0 200 (Population in thousands) 400

2016

600 85+ 75-79 65-69 55-59 45-49 35-39 25-29 15-19 5-9

Population Projections

 Hispanics, Multiracial and Other Races are projected to grow fast.

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% NJ Population Growth by Race: 2006-2016 33.3% 32.6% 29.8% 1.2% White 5.4% Black Other 2+Races Hispanic

Population Projections

 Other Races and Hispanics will increase their shares of the state’s total resident population.

1990 2006 2016 2025 Non-Hispanic

90.3% 84.4% 81.0% 77.7% White Black Others 2+ Races

Hispanic

73.9% 12.9% 3.6% (N.A.) 9.7% 62.8% 13.3% 7.4% 1.0% 15.6% 57.1% 13.2% 9.4% 1.3% 19.0% 52.0% 12.9% 11.2% 1.6% 22.3%

Population Projections

• New Jersey’s sex ratio is projected to increase gradually as male population grow slightly faster than their female counterpart.

97.0

96.0

95.0

94.0

93.0

93.5

1990 New Jersey Sex Ratio: 1990 - 2025

94.3

2000

95.5

2006

96.0

2016

97.0

2025

Labor Force Projections

 New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster than its population from 2006 to 2016 but not after 2016.

Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2025

2016-2025 2006-2016 1990-2006 1980-1990 0% 3.7%

5.4% 4.6%

6.0% 5%

5.2%

9.5%

11.9%

10% 15% 16.5% 20% Population Labor Force

Labor Force Projections

• The “older workers” (labor force aged 55 and older) will grow faster than their younger counterparts.

NJ Labor Force Change by Age 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2000-06 2006-16 16-24 25-39 40-54 55 & over

Labor Force Projections

 Hispanics, Other Races and Multiracial labor forces are projected to grow fast.

NJ Labor Force Growth by Race: 2006-2016

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2.2% White 9.0% Black 32.5% Other 43.0% 27.0% 2+Races Hispanic

Labor Force Projections

 In fact, the “other races” will account for 40% and 70% the state’s total labor force growth in 2006-2016 and 2016 of 2025 periods, respectively.

 Hispanics will comprise the majority of the state’s labor force growth ( 70%) from 2006 to 2016. They will account for all the growth of New Jersey’s labor force between 2016 and 2025, as the no-Hispanic labor force is projected to decline somewhat.

Labor Force Projections

 Consequently, Other Races and Hispanics will increase their shares of the state’s total civilian labor force.

White Black Others 2+ Races Hispanic 1990 83.3% 12.9% 3.8% (N.A.) 9.1% 2006 77.6% 13.4% 8.0% 1.0% 15.5% 2016 74.8% 13.8% 10.0% 1.4% 18.6% 2025 72.1% 13.9% 12.2% 1.9% 22.2%

Thank You

Comments Welcomed

Prepared by: New Jersey Department of Labor & Workforce Development Division of Labor Market and Demographic Research Contact: Sen-Yuan Wu (email:

[email protected]

tel. 609-292-0077)