Transcript Слайд 1 - TRACECA

ACTIVITIES
TILL
TIF 2012
IDEA Project
Transport dialogue and interoperability between the EU and its
neighbouring countries and Central Asian countries
Project funded by European Union DG DEVCO
Ashraf Hamed
IDEA Project
Milan, 08 June 2012
TRACECA Route Attractiveness indeX (TRAX)
2
Future development of TRAX
TRAX will be further development to Intermodal Index TRAX by
including the railway born transport links along the TRACECA
routes and the Trans-Russian routes.
Intermodal Index
Road Index
Has been developed in
2010 and will be updated
in 2011
Rail Index
Will be developed in 2011
For intermodal index calculation will be applied a single
methodological approach for all its constituent parts: road and
rail transport indexes
Calculation Equations
Route Stretch’s Index =
F(Ci x αc + TT i x Vt x
αt + Ri x αr + Sr x αs )
Route Node’s Index =
F (Cij x
αc + TTij x Vt x αt + Rij x αr)
i=1….N (N stretches in total)
J=1…M (M stops in total)
Where as :
• Ci = Observed Transport cost on Stretch i
•
α
c/t/r/s = Weight of costs / time / reliability / Security in the
route choice decision making, obtained from the freight
operators interviews
• TTi = Observed Average Transport time on Stretch i
• Vt = Value of Time for freight transport per cargo
• Sr = Perceived security and safety of Cargo in specific Country
*50 % Point in statistics; means 50 % of data mass are below and
50 % above this point
• Index is adjsted on KM based for comparison reasons
TRAX routes
1. Trans Russian Route
2. Trans Caucasus Route
3. Trans Turkey / Iran Route
5
TRAX 2010
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE
11243
8169
7776
6767
6358
3032
TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE
10849
8839
6373
72 76
2994
1896
1255
TRAX INDEX
TRANS-RUSSIA ROUTE
TRANS-TURKEY ROUTE
TRANS-CAUCASUS
ROUTE
INDEX
14
6
72 76 146
TRAVEL COST TIME COST
RELIABILI SAFETY/SECURI
TY
TY
3032
1255
6767
6373
72
6358
1896
7776
8839
76
8169
2994
11243
10849
146
RAIL TRAX
TRAX illustrates the attractiveness of a route from the
perspective of transport operators:
2010: Road / Martime TRAX methodology and calculation
2011: Inter-Modal TRAX by adding Rail born transport
The TRAX for rail transport will be calculated in analogy to
Road/Maritime TRAX,
TIME
COST
RELIABILITY
SAFETY
The weighing of the criteria must also reflect the priorities
and weights considered by the transport operators
RAIL TRAX
DATA COLLECTION
(1)
ROAD born information through IRU drivers’
Journals
(2)
RAIL information through three sources
• Questionnaire survey and Interviews with the
national railway administrations
• Freight Forwarders - to provide national data
on individual countries on route lines, tariff
scale, costs and time on stretches and nodes
• Freight Forwarders Interviews to obtain real
data of real shipments on particular routes
RAIL TRAX
Integrated approach to data collection
at the national and international level
Each stretch or node gets three types of assessment:
• In terms of national railway administration
• In terms of national rail transport operator / freight
forwarders
• In terms of international rail transport operator / freight
forwarders.
Data collection, definition of criteria weights, formation and
segmentation of the route will be made in cooperation with
transport companies and operators by questionnaires and
interviews.
2011 - Intermodal Index
TENTATIVE WORKING PLAN
2011
Activity
June,
Elaboration
gathering
of
the
Questionnaires
July/
August
Carry out the interviews with 1) the national railway
administrations / companies and 2) operators /
companies / freight forwarders, providing services of
rail transportation.
IRU cooperation and Obtaining Journals
August
Data analysis
Calculation of the index
October
Presentation of the results
and
Data
Cooperation with the World Bank
• The world Bank is setting a unified approach for
PERFORMANCE OF LAND TRANSPORT CORRIDORS LINKING
EUROPE AND ASIA THROUGH CENTRAL ASIA
• The world Bank has expressed its interest in the
TRACECA tools (GIS / Model and TRAX)
• TRAX methodology will be added to the analysis
and adopted as the leading method
• Exchange of information on Driver’s Journals and
Rail information
• Establish work group with World Bank team to
adopt TRACECA methodology and improvements
(Partnering with IRU). First meeting is scheduled
June 27, in DC.
TRACECA Training Programme
TRAINING APPROACH
TRAINEES APPROACH
TRACECA Transport Forecast
model
List of
nominees
per country
MON
FRI
Trainees Profile
Work scope and position
Linguistic capabilities
Logistics Grouping
Maximum Number
TRACECA Appraisal Tool
TRACECA Investment Manual
List of
Participants /
Location
E-Learning
Platform
Methods of Delivery
• Starting Mondays with arrival of the participants and ending on
Friday
• Training will be held in English with Russian translation where
necessary.
• For modeling
– Deploying local tutors will ensure the understanding quality and close
supervision for non-English speakers
– So far we secured trainers from Kazakhstan and Turkey.
– The local trainers will receive a special training prior to the course start
(if necessary)
– Hands on training with computers with VISUM
• For appraisal
– Each of the 4 appraisal training sessions, the content will be tailored
and derived from the countries’ requirements.
• The number of attendees will be approx. 15 participants.
• All training focus on interactive work with TRACECA tools
• A certificate of attendance will be issued to candidates who
attended 100% of the course hours.
• Additional (Continuing Education) – E-IDEA
Model Training Participants (distribution)
Country
Nomi.
Accepted
rejected
backup
Azerbaijan
7
3
3
1
Armenia
4
3
0
1
Bulgaria
9
6
3
0
Georgia
8
4
4
0
Kazkhstan
14
9
5
0
Kyrgyzstan
6
5
1
0
Moldova
3
2
1
0
Romania
3
2
0
1
Tajikistan
4
2
2
0
Turkey
17
7
4
6
Ukraine
20
11
3
6
Ukraine
16
13
3
0
Uzbekistan
1
1
0
0
112
68
29
15
TOTAL
Venue
1
AZERBAIJAN
Countries
Number of Trainees
Azerbaijan
3
Kyrgyzstan
5
Uzbekistan
1
Georgia
2
Total
MODEL TRAINING SET UP
2
BULGARIA
Bulgaria
6
Moldova
2
Romania
2
Total
3
KAZAKHSTAN
TURKEY
9
Tajikistan
2
UKRAINE
7
Georgia
2
9
Ukraine (KIEV)
11
Armenia
3
Total 1
6
11
Turkey
Total
5
10
Kazakhstan
Total
4
11
14
Ukraine (ODESSA)
13
Total 2
13
Appraisal Training Participants (distribution)
Country
Nomi.
Accepted
rejected
backup
Azerbaijan
5
5
0
0
Armenia
5
5
0
0
Bulgaria
9
3
6
0
Georgia
1
1
0
0
Kazkhstan
11
7
4
0
Kyrgyzstan
3
3
0
0
Moldova
3
3
0
0
Romania
5
5
0
0
Tajikistan
4
4
0
0
Turkey
8
6
2
0
Ukraine
18
14
4
0
Uzbekistan
3
3
0
0
TOTAL
75
59
16
0
Venue
APPRAISAL TRAINING SET UP
1
AZERBAIJAN
Countries
Number of Trainees
Azerbaijan
5
Moldova
3
Uzbekistan
3
Tajikistan
4
Total
2
KAZAKHSTAN
Kazakhstan
7
Armenia
5
Kyrgyzstan
3
Total
3
TURKEY
UKRAINE
15
Turkey
6
Romania
5
Georgia
1
Bulgaria
2
Total
4
15
14
Ukraine
14
Bulgaria
1
Total
15
Schedule
ARRIVE
Mo
LEAVE
Tu
Wed
Thu
Fr
Appraisal
Turkey
Ankara
1
20-Jun
21-Jun
22-Jun
23-Jun
24-Jun
Model
Turkey
Ankara
1
20-Jun
21-Jun
22-Jun
23-Jun
24-Jun
Model
Bulgaria
Sofia
2
4-Jul
5-Jul
6-Jul
7-Jul
8-Jul
Model
Ukraine 1
ODESSA
3
22-Aug
23-Aug
24-Aug
25-Aug
26-Aug
Appraisal
Ukraine 1
Kiev
2
29-Aug
30-Aug
31-Aug
1-Sep
2-Sep
Model
Ukraine 2
Kiev
4
5-Sep
6-Sep
7-Sep
8-Sep
9-Sep
Model
Kazakhstan
Almaty
5
3-Oct
4-Oct
5-Oct
6-Oct
7-Oct
Appraisal
Kazakhstan
Almaty
3
10-Oct
11-Oct
12-Oct
13-Oct
14-Oct
Appraisal
Azerbaijan
Baku
4
31-Oct
1-Nov
2-Nov
3-Nov
4-Nov
Model
Azerbaijan
Baku
6
7-Nov
8-Nov
9-Nov
10-Nov
11-Nov
Model Training
• Training sessions will cover the following topics
– Introduction into transportation planning fundamentals;
– Using the VISUM Software, understanding VISUM and its basic
functions;
– Working with the TRACECA model (updating input data /
understanding results / adding new infrastructure /
understanding VISUM outputs / export of data);
– Towards a national model
• E-learning (e-IDEA)
–
–
–
–
–
Use of TRT / Dornier IDEA e-learning platform
It will hold the training sessions, hand outs and excercises
Secured login for users
Local tutors for support
local tutors will be a reference point for the trainees to come
back with questions.
Status of the Model
•
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•
•
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•
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On 9th/10th December 2010, an Experts Group Meeting.
Agreement that active cooperation is needed from the side of the TRACECA
countries in order to improve the base forecast with reference to planned
infrastructures
A revised draft of the TRACECA IDEA Freight Model Development Report has
been delivered, including the following updates
Detailed description of the forecast modelling approach inclusive of the used
forecast land use data, forecast assumptions and infrastructure measures;
Presentation of generated forecast demand and analysis of the assignment
results with a comparison to the base year model results
All countries have received a VISUM license key, to work with the model
as test for three months. Also an updated model
Update the model needs Future networks, work is required from your
experts
Questionnaire was sent and only 2 countries replied.
No feed back was received on the socio-economic data.
On-call Meeting of the experts’ group in Kiev was cancelled
Experts’ group will convene again after training
Conversion of the VISUM license
Required Action
• Confirm the participants of your country. A
reminder will be sent by IDEA.
• Brief trainees that
– they will be the point for providing information for the
investment projects, for this cycles and next years.
– They are requested to obtain the update data for the
model and provide this information to the member of the
experts’ group meeting
– They must provide plausibility check for the model results
• PS to hand in the network license
• PS is to collect from every country the name and
responsible person for the new VISUM license
Appraisal Training
Part 1 Cost benefit analysis and socio-economic feasibility
Training sessions will cover the following topics
Scope of cost benefits analysis
Data needs
Steps in costs benefit analysis
Basic calculations
User benefits
Producer benefits
Performance indicators
Transport externalities what they are how to measure them
Distribution of costs and benefits and cross border projects
Transport appraisal optimism and risk analysis
From economic and financial appraisal
Appraisal Training
Part 2 Project development and financing
Training sessions will cover the following topics
Frameworks for the provision and financing of transport
infrastructure
Forms of private sector participation
Sources of financing
Risk sharing schemes in the different procurement models
Risk allocation strategies
Funding of infrastructure
Methods and tools for project development
Infrastructure procurement from the view of different stakeholders
Appraisal Training
The training will make large use of case studies to underline the
theoretical background and to provide evidence of the different
issues and steps in the appraisal
Training will be divided in sessions, each one approximately of half
a day and group work will be organised at the end of each session
Case studies will cover different transport modes, road, rail, ports,
intermodal centres
Participants will be requested to carry out exercises and to organise
discussions
e learning is not foreseen
TRACECA web site
Required actions
• All countries received training on web content
• Countries’ Web sites are inhomogeneous. Some
are dense and other have scares information.
• Minimum content should be defined by the PS
• Route and border crossing information must be
added to the web site. This is what the transport
industry misses on TRACECA route.
• Web content on the site must be optimized for
the transport industry as target audience of the
site.
• News on the web site must be like news. PS staff
shall receive training based on the EU
communication training methodology.