Transcript Ventura County Demographics - California Lutheran University

Ventura County Demographics
A Presentation to the Ventura County
Leadership Academy
September 2005
Chuck Maxey - School of Business California Lutheran University
Ventura County
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• Ventura County’s our
name.
• Quality of Life is our
game.
Ventura County, California
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Golf Courses
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County Line Beach
Wide-Open Freeways
But we also have…
Growing Traffic Problems
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Not all beaches are created equal!
Farm worker Poverty
Variations in School
Effectiveness
In some sense, we are at a
crossroads
• Where we don’t want
to end up!
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Ventura Compared to Other US
Counties - 2003
• Economic Well Being
• Language
– 35th - Speak Language
Other Than English at
Home (34.0%)
– 20th - Speak Spanish at
Home (27.2%)
• Foreign Born
– 37th @ 20.3%
• Education
– 14th - Housing Value
of Those with
Mortgage
– 55th - Median Family
Income ($68,334)
– 166th - % of Children
in Poverty (10.0%)
– 120th - % with Bachelor
• Commute
Degree (28.2%)
– 83rd - @26.0 Minutes
– 61st - @ with less than
High School Diploma
(17.1%)
source: US Census American
Communty Survey
Some CA County Comparisons
2000 Census Data
Popul ati on
Median Ag e
Education - College Degr ees
Median Household Income
Per Capita Income
Owner-Occupi ed housing Units
Unemployment Rate
Drive to Wor k
Median travel Time to Wor k ( min.)
Source: Fr eeDemogr aphics.com
Mar in
247,289
41.4
51.30%
$71,715
$44,266
61.0%
3.0%
76.2%
30
Sonoma
458614
37.5
28.50%
$53.59
$25,284
60.3%
4.3%
87.3%
21
Orang e
2,846,289
33.4
30.80%
$59,028
$25,481
59.3%
5.0%
89.9%
24
Ventura
753,197
34.2
26.90%
$59,730
$24,263
65.3%
5.1%
90.1%
21
Ventura County - Some Basics
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2004 Population = 797,699
Ranks 11th among California Counties
Growth rate about 1.7% per year
Land Area = 1845 Square Miles
Persons per Square Mile = 408.2
400,000 Workers; 300,000 Jobs
Source: California Quick Facts, US
Census
VC - Ethnically Diverse
• Ethnicity (2000)
– 56.8% White Non Hispanic
– 33.4% Hispanic or Latino
Origin
– 9.8% Other
• 20.7% Foreign Born
• 33% Speak Language
Other Than English at
Home
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And Becoming More Diverse
Hispanics Become a Majority
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Now 2006 2014 2017 2019 2040 2060 -
births
children entering kindergarten
students entering high school
new adults entering the labor force
people newly eligible to vote
people in middle age
seniors
VC Population Change Sources
Natural Increase vs. Net Migration
Ventura County
people
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
N et Migration N atural Increase
VC Immigration Changes
Domestic Migration vs. Foreign Immigration
Ventura County
people
8,0 00
6,0 00
4,0 00
2,0 00
0
-2 ,000
-4 ,000
-6 ,000
-8 ,000
19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05
Domestic Migrati on
Fo reig n I mm igra tion
VC Educational Attainment
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7.8% - K-9
9.5% - 9-11
19.7% HS Grad
Some College 25.5%
AA Degree 7.9%
BS/BA 17,4%
Grad Degree 9.5%
Why Educational Attainment
Matters
Me dian Ear nings - US Wor k e rs 25 and Olde r - 2003
$100,000
$90,000
$86,221
$80,000
$70,378
$70,000
$60,000
$51,238
$50,000
$42,030
$40,000
$30,744
$30,000
$20,000
$32,336
$26,518
$19,130
$16,655
$10,000
$< 9th gr ade
Some HS
HS Grad
Some Coll eg e
AA Deg ree
B's Deg ree
Master's
Deg ree
Prof. Degr ee
Doctorate
Family Economics
• 12.1% - Children in
Poverty
• 31.1% Children in
Low Income
• $6,022 Annual Cost of
FT Child Care
• 26.3% Food Insecurity
• 8,807 Reports of
Abuse
• 22% Students Who
Are English Learners
• 31% Disadvantaged
Student at 50th % on
4th grade reading
• 34% DS @ 50th % on
8th Grade Math
• 2.4% Annual Latino
HS Drop Out rate
The Local Economy
Chuck Maxey -- California
Lutheran University
VC Unemployment
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Unemployment Rate
9.4%
9.0%
6.7%
C alif ornia
Ventura C ounty
5.0%
5.4%
6.2%
4.9%
4.5%
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
The Size of the County’s
Economy
Nominal Gross County Product
Ventura County
$billio ns
59 .91
56 .30
52 .90
49 .62
46 .50
43 .76
41
.07
38 .52
35 .46
31 .89
26
.76
24 .31
21 .1722 .17
20 .21
19 94
19 96
19 98
20 00
20 02
20 04
20 06
20 08
Real Growth Rate of GCP
Real Gross County Product Growth
Ventura County
18 .2%
9.4 %
7.8 %
5.2 %
8.5 %
6.4 %
3.5 %3.7 %3.4 %3.8 %4.0 %3.9 %3.9 %
2.8 %
1.9 %
19 94
19 96
19 98
20 00
20 02
20 04
20 06
20 08
Job Growth in VC and CA
Job Growth
Ventura County and California
4.7 %
4.1 %
2.5 %
0.4 %
3.8 %
3.5 %
3.4 %
3.0
%
2.8 %
2.8 %
1.8 %
2.0 %
1.3 %
1.1 %
0.4 %
0.7 %
0.6 %
1.1 %
0.9 %
0.4 %
-0 .4%
-1 .0%
Ventura County
-0 .8%
2.4 %
1.5 %
1.6 %
C alif ornia
19 93
19 95
19 97
19 99
20 01
20 03
20 05
Thank You Amgen
Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a
Ph o t o - J PEG d e c o m p r e s s o r
a r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .
Chuck Maxey -- California
Lutheran University
VC Jobs by Sector
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Employment Distribution (jobs)
Ventura County - 2004
20,664
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Durable Manufacturing
Non-Durable Manufacturing
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
Information
Wholesale Trade
600
Other Services include:
•Personal & laundry
• Repair and m aintenance
23,417
• Civic, Religious, and
13,492
Professional
• Personal household
5,679
18,179
6,612
12,008
34,631
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins.& Real Estate
23,126
104,205
Other Services
Government
42,338
VC Salaries by Sector
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Average Salaries
Ventura County - 2004
Agriculture
$22,004
$58,487
Mining
$38,044
Construction
$53,149
Durable Manufacturing
$91,461
Non-Durable Manufacturing
$47,101
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
$65,796
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
$21,533
$59,646
Finance, Ins.& Real Estate
Other Services
G overnment
$35,666
$46,127
VC Job Growth
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Job Growth
Ventura County and California
4.7%
Ventura County
3.9%
California
4.1%
3.5%
3.4%
2.5%
1.8%
2.8%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.4%
0.4%
-0.8%
-1.5%
1992
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
-1.0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
VC 5 Year Job Changes
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
5-Year Job Growth by Industry
Ventura County - 2004
Ag riculture
Mining -37.9%
Co nstruction
Durable Manuf acturi ng
-10.1%
No n-Dura ble Manuf a cturing
Trans., Warehous ing & U tilities
Inf orm ati on
-19.1%
Wholesal e Trade
Retail Tra de
Fi nance, I ns.& Real Es tate
Other Services
G overnment
-3.6%
17.9%
23.7%
1.7%
5.2%
27.3%
7.9%
43.3%
11.5%
California - Home Ownership
2003
• States range from
78.1% to 54.3%
• US average is 68.3%
• California ranks 48th
• California’s rate is
58.9
Median House Prices 2003
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no
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2
3
4
5
6
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9
10
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12
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County
Median
Lower BoundUpper Bound
San Mateo County, CA
664,180
649,495
678,865
San Francisco County, CA 597,493
585,173
609,813
Santa Clara County, CA 587,034
572,204
601,864
Santa Cruz County, CA
575,097
540,041
610,153
Westchester County, NY 502,822
475,415
530,229
Santa Barbara County, CA
461,593
403,331
Alameda County, CA
456,643
445,324
467,962
Contra Costa County, CA 430,312
416,366
444,258
Sonoma County, CA
428,523
411,990
445,056
Monterey County, CA
426,103
397,073
455,133
San Luis Obispo County, CA
420,129
394,373
Orange County, CA
418,712
409,482
427,942
Fairfield County, CT
406,071
386,246
425,896
Ventura County, CA
394,318
384,634
404,002
San Diego County, CA
385,798
379,879
391,717
519,855
445,885
Single and Multi-Family Residential Permits
Ventura County
thousands of permits
900
Multi-Family
800
Single Family
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997 1998 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Housing Prices in VC
Nominal Median Home Price
Ventura County
93 5.1
84 4.6
76 3.8
68 2.2
59 3.1
$ thousands
46 2.5
37 2.4
32 2.6
29 5.1
23 3.825 5.0
20 6.6
20 5.721 9.3
19 9.9
19 94
19 96
19 98
20 00
20 02
20 04
20 06
20 08
Housing Permits in 3 Counties
Housing Unit Permits per 1,000 people
Comparison
Sa nta B a rba ra C ounty
Sa n Luis Obispo County
Ventura C ounty
7.3
5.1
5.7
7.0 6.6
6.0
5.3
8.8
8.1
7.6
8.2 7.8
7.3 6.9
6.9
4.6 4.3
4.6
4.3
4.3 4.1
4.2 4.0
3.8 3.5
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.2 3.3
3.1 3.2
3.1 3.2
3.1 3.3 3.2
2.9
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0
1.4
19 9319 9419 9519 9619 9719 9819 9920 0020 0120 0220 0320 0420 0520 0620 0720 08
Home Prices - VC and CA
Nominal Median Home Price
California and Ventura
$ thousands
93 5.1
84 4.6
Ventura C ounty - line
76
3.8
Ca lifo rni a - bar
67 0.1
68 2.2 61 6.6
59 3.1 56 5.0
51 4.2
45
2.3
46 2.5
37 2.7
37
2.4
31 6.1
2.6
29
5.1
2632
2.4
24
1.4
5.0
2125
7.5
2023
0.1
3.8
1821
6.5
9.3
1820
5.0
1719
8.2
1720
7.3
6.6
5.7
9.9
19 94
19 96
19 98
20 00
20 02
20 04
20 06
20 08
Median Priced Home?
Affordability: VC and CA
Affordability Index
Comparison
50 %
45 %
40 %
35 %
30 %
25 %
20 %
15 %
10 %
5%
0%
19 96
Ventura C ounty
C alif ornia
19 97
19 98
19 99
20 00
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
20 05
Is There a Housing Bubble?

Who says
Yes?

Who Says
No?
Chuck Maxey -- California
Lutheran University
The Pessimist?

Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a
Ph o t o - J PEG d e c o m p r e s s o r
a r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .
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ÒYes, a bubble exists.Ó
Fundamental demand is
giving w ay to
investment buying.
Bubbles rarely burst,
but they do deflate.
2006 or 2007 could see
problems.
Chuck Maxey -- California
Lutheran University
The Optimist?

ÒCalifornia home price gains are
justif ied by real events.Ó
Q u ic k T im e ™ a n d a
Ph o t o - J PEG d e c o m p r e s s o r
a r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h is p ic t u r e .


ÒAlmost surely the grow th rate of
Ventura CountyÕ
s home prices w ill
decrease, but home prices w ill
remain f irm.Ó
Wealthy retirees and baby
boomers are changing the relevant
demographics.
Chuck Maxey -- California
Lutheran University
One More Topic:
Civic Engagement
Voter Registration 2004
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
CA
40.0%
VC
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Reg istered
Democr at
Republi can
Other
Independent
CA
68.9%
43.2%
35.5%
4.8%
16.4%
VC
72.9%
37.8%
42.2%
4.9%
15.1%
VC Voter Participation - March
2004
• Ventura Voting
– 47.0% of Registered
– 34.1% of Eligible
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• California Voting
– 44.3% of Registered
– 30.5% of Eligible
Source: California Abstract
Some On-Line Resources
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Government Performance Project: Grading the
States. http://results.gpponline.org
Southern Calif ornia Association of Governments:
State of the Region 2004 w w w .scag.ca.gov
w w w .venturaprofile.org
- An inf ormation cite for
Ventura County hosted by CLU
The UCSB Economic Forecast Project w w w .ucsbef p.com
The California Forecast w w w .calif orniaforecast.com
Chuck Maxey -- California
Lutheran University
Thank You!