Transcript MODELLING & SIMULATION GROUP CONFERENCE on …

Analytical Support for Decision Making in the Security
Sector
Integration of C2 and M&S elements in CAX
for Crisis Management
(federation management)
Dr. Velizar Mateev Shalamanov, Institute of Parallel Processing – BAS
Sofia 1113, Akad. G. Bonchev Str., Bl. 25 A, IPP-BAS, BULGARIA
Telephone: ++ 359 (2) 9796747 Telefax: ++ 359 (2) 8707273
Email Address: [email protected]
Outline
1. CAX based Model for Concept
Development and Experimentation
2. M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment
3. CAX Federation Management
This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division
in the framework of Science for Peace Program Project SFP-981149 (2005-2007)
CoE in Operational Analyses
(http://www.gcmarshall.bg/sfp981149/)
CAX based Model for Concept Development
and Experimentation
Scenario Development
Strategic Review
Process: White paper
Concept Development
– list of principles and
options
Operational Architecture
Analysis, Assessment,
Lessons,
Recommendations
CAX / MAX
Model Environment
Set-up
Pre-exercise Training
Training as a Tool for Change Management
in Third Generation of Security Sector
Reform
• Building of Integrated Security Sector as Goal of Third
Generation Security Sector Reform
–
–
–
–
–
Defense (Sovereignty, Expeditionary Operations, Territorial defense)
Public Order and Security
Emergency Management / Consequence Management
Diplomacy / protection abroad
Information operations
• Key Pillar of Integrated Security Sector - Defense Against
Terrorism and Consequence Management (Crisis Management)
• Role of Training in Change Management
MoI
MoEM
MoI
MoD
MoD
MoFA
MoFA
Special Services
Third Generation SSR for
Integrated Security Sector
MoEM
Integrated Security Sector
Special Services
One Ministry’s Operation:
•Defense
•Public order
•Emergency management
•Diplomacy
•Information
Complex Crisis
Management Operations of
the Integrated Security
Sector
Training as a Tool for Change
Management
Individual Training
General Education /
Training
Joint CAX Planning
Pre-exercise Training
Lessons Learned Analysis
Specialized Tactical
Training
CAX
• CAX are main tool for training and respectively
change management of complex systems. Integrated
emergency management system is a typical element
of complex adaptive system, which needs effective
change management internally and at the same time
is an effective change management tool for the
whole security sector in transition from traditional
national security to civil security concept.
• CAX requires integration of traditional C2 system
with M&S tools to provide real test–bed for new
concepts and new technologies including the key
element – people in the loop.
M&S Capabilities of CAX Environment
• M&S elements in General Architecture of JTSAC
– Planning and Analysis Cell
• Planning and resource management
• Assessment of CAX
– White Cell / Simulation cell
• Concept to scenario transition
• Simulation of scenario and environment
• Simulation of IEWS/Notification System
– Operations Center
• Analytical Cell DMS tools
• Communications Cell planning and management tolls
• Integration between scenario M&S and C2 system
Architecture of Joint Training Simulation and Analysis
Center in Civil-Military Emergency Planning / Response
(JTSAC-CMEP)
IEMS
White Cell
Briefing room
PR room
VIP room
Meteorological
info
Hydrological
info
Seismological
info
Scenario
Development
Scenario
Simulation
EU, NATO, UN / MIC, EADRCC, OCHA
Ministries: MoEM, MoI, MoD, MH,
MoEW, MoE, MoAF
National Media, NGOs, other agencies
Emerg calls
Alerting
system
National EOC
MHS
IEWS
IDS
WIS
Analytical cell
Comms
cell
Functional areas incl. PR
Planning,
Costing,
Reporting
District EOC/LEMA as well as OSOCC
White Cell
WIS/LL
Field EOC
and First responders C2 elements
MHS/IDS/WIS
M&S in JTSAC Service Oriented Architecture
Emergency Operations Center
White Cell
Scenario Modeling
Information Fusion and
Presentation
Scenario Simulation
Basic IM tools for EMS
Environment Modeling And
Simulation, incl. IEWNS, Network
Planning
Decision Making Support
Assessment
Meta simulation data
M&S Server
WIS server
M&S in Planning and Lessons Learned
Drafting
• Life Cycle of CAX
• Key role of economic dimension and
PPP
• Resource Management / Contracting
• Knowledge Management
• Business Continuity Management
M&S in CAX Planning
Alternatives
Problems in the transformation
management in the security sector
Integrated system of
management
Excel/Word
System
Architect /
OpNet
Balanced
system of
indicators
Expert
Choice
General
architecture
QPR
Assessment
Choice
Multi
Choice2
MS Project
Plan
Budget
Resources
Implementation
reporting
Choice of
alternatives
Activity Based
Costing
M&S in CAX Assessment
Financial
How to Minimize Time and Money for
Implementation of New Concepts?
Yesterday
Time for planning / implementing
Budget to run CAX
Reusability of environment
Scenario and Operational Architecture
Today
How to Develop Best Concept and
Organizational Structure for CM System?
JTSAC Architecture
How to Provide Best Environment for
Experimentation and Training?
Minimize reaction time
Maximize effectiveness
Minimize negative consequences
Increase Society Satisfaction
Information Flow
Analytical Support
Use of new technologies
CAX team training and development
Tomorrow
How to form and train team and develop
CAX products / services for better way
achieving other goals?
Organizational, tasking, training
Bonus payment and retaining
personnel
Need for “proxy” organization
• BAS and JTSAC role
• Cooperation with NATO
– NSC
– RTO
• Cooperation with EU
– DG Environment
– 6 and 7 FP
• Cooperation on bilateral basis
• Regional (SEE, WBSA) cooperation
CAX and Real C2
• CAX without real C2 system
• CAX with real C2 System
– Direct link
• C2 => M&S
• M&S => C2
• M&S  C2
– Link through “air gap” and human processing
• Trainees
• Support staff
• Combined
CAX Federation
International Organizations
M&S tools or real C2 of:
MoD
PMA
and
CBM
MoI
MoSPDA
Scenario
Development
MoFA
Federation Network BUS
MHS
WIS
IDS
Design and M&S of
the Technology
Diagrams as well
as the Network and
Comms / Info
Assurance
Internet
Scenario
Simulation
DMS
GIS
e – GRID
DB
Computing resource
Government – Security Council, Standing Committee on
Protection of Population: Integrated Security Sector
PMA – Planning, Management and Assessment; CBM – Continuity of
Business Management; DMS – Decision Making Support; M&S –
Modeling and Simulation; DB – Data base; GIS – Geographic Information
System; e-GRID – European R&D network of computing resources
Natural
Environment M&S
from BAS
Institutes
Three critical elements
There are four critical elements in CAX
architecture
• simulation cell
• operations cell
• analytical cell
• comms cell
that need conceptual, information, hardware
and software integration in order to support
realistic flow of the training process.
Key mechanism
Current paper explores a model of such integration based on
static and dynamic technological diagrams with distributed
nodes in these four cells.
In normal C2 system all nodes will “sit” in operations and
analytical cell with tendency to have as much as possible
of them in the analytical cell providing scientific best
solution for problems arising during crisis management
scenario.
In exercise simulation cell has to cover all nodes that is
impossible to be covered by operations and analytical
cells.
So in one end is a system with participants in the exercise
only looking at closed simulation run by simulation cell,
without any input from operations or analytical cell.
Next step is
when we have some nodes implemented
in analytical or operations cell and at
the other end is a full C2 system where
there are no elements in simulation cell
– all of the nodes are implemented in
operations and analytical cell.
Interoperability patchwork
1. Memorandum of Understanding between organizations
2. Standard Operating Procedures / Documents
3. Scenario as event / message list (Operational Architecture
related)
4. Basic MHS/WIS/IDS to support interagency cooperation on proxy
basis
5. GIS and DB (common for all organizations on proxy basis)
6. Environment simulation from different BAS Institutes –
hydrology, meteorology, seismology, remote sensing, …
7. Internet simulated comms and computing power
8. CAX Federation BUS management based on Technological
Diagrams
9. Integrated Implementation Plan and Balance Score Card
Assessment
Conclusions - I
1.
Growing number of new and diverse concepts – need
for rapid experimentation and adaptation
2.
Horizontal nature of the new concepts – need for cross
culture training
3.
Key element in concept implementation / change
management is the personnel – people in the loop
model for experimentation is needed
4.
Low cost and flexibility of training environment is a
prerequisite for large scale implementation
5.
CAX and MAX balance in training and experimentation
is needed
Conclusions - II
6.
Evolutionary development (prototyping) and rapid
implementation of the results of experimented
concepts is required (CoE-OA => JTSAC-CMEP =>
EU TACOM SEE-2006 => IEMS FS example)
7.
Integration of efforts of Administration / Forces, R&D /
E&T academic institutions and business based on
M&S environment is a must
8.
Proxy Organization is needed to provide patchwork
interoperability between all participant in federation
9.
JTSAC-CMEP is a tool set to provide environment for
federation management