Transcript Cost Requirements Document

Autonomous Air Traffic Management
System (AATMS):
The Management and Design of an
Affordable Ground-Based Air Traffic
Management System
Faculty Advisor
Corporate Sponsor
George L. Donohue, PhD.
Ms. Lori Delorenzo
Student Team Members
Kenneth H. McKneely Jr.
Abdulaziz Faghi
Pirooz Javan
Keegan E. Johnson
Khang L. Nguyen
CACI Technologies, Inc.
April 26, 2002
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Briefing Outline

Problem Statement
 Operational Concept
 Design Approach
 Decision and Cost
Analysis

Physical Architecture
 Simulations
 Conclusion
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Problem Statement
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Motivation

Key Design Question: Can we provide equivalent
Tower Safety at a lower cost?
 Performance Objective
– Increase Aircraft Arrivals per hour from 3 to a maximum
of 15 per hour in Lower Landing Minimum
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Operational Concept

AATMS Services
– Provide same capabilities as Low Density FAA
Manned Tower




Surveillance
Separation
Communications
Flight Planning and Weather Information
– Remote Maintenance Monitoring

Worst Case Weather Conditions
– Cloud Ceiling: 450 feet
– Horizontal Visibility: 1 statute mile
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Initial Observations and
Constraints

Target Market approximately 750 airports
– Small airports do not have large budgets

Technology exists, but no real integration of this type
of system
 Meet a High Operational Availability
 Provide services for minimally equipped aircraft
– Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System (ATCRBS)
transponder with encoding altimeter
– Two independent radio navigation systems
– Global Positioning System/Wide Area Augmentation
System (GPS/WAAS)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Design Approach

Two Basic Design Alternatives:
– Decisions made by Pilot/Avionics: Responsibility for
execution of maneuvers is left to the pilot (e.g.,
missed approach).
– Decisions made by AATMS : AATMS monitors
airspace and provides instructions to pilots.

Provide two hardware configurations
– Minimum Availability (Min AO): Meets minimum
availability requirements for FAA certification
– Maximum Availability (Max AO): Provide
component redundancy and diversity
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Design Approach
Architecture/
Design
Pilot Decision
Making
AATMS Decision
Making
Min AO
Reject Design
Accept Design
Max AO
Reject Design
Accept Design
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Max AO Physical Architecture
Multilateration
ADS-B
Focal Plane
(IR) Array
Voice
Synthesizer
Primary
Radar
100 Base-T Router/LAN
VDL-4
VHF Voice
Remote
Maintenance
Monitoring
AWOS/
DUATS
Weather/
Runway
Weather/
Runway
Planning
Planning
UPS
(Network Servers)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Decision and Cost Analysis
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Cost Approach

Used Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis
Techniques for component selection decisions
 Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS)
– Means to Collect/Track Cost Data

Assumptions for Operations Costs
– Computed for 7 years (Time between Technology
Refresh)
– Operations Costs
 Tower: Staffed by 15 people @ $120,000/yr each
 AATMS: Utilities ~ $24000/yr
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Decision Sensitivity Analysis
Primary Radar Decision Sensitivity to Weight of Purchase Price (PP)
1.000
Actual Weight of Purchase Price (PP)
0.900
0.800
Decision Value
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
JRC JMA 2254
0.300
SI-TEX T-295
0.200
SI-TEX 1140-4
0.100
Raymarine 9S
Furuno 1933C NAVNET
0.000
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Weight of Purchase Price (PP)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
0.8
1
Cost Comparison
$5,000,000
$4,500,000
$4,000,000
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
Operations
Maintenance
Acquisition
Maximum Ao Minimum Ao
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
ATCT
Simulations
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Approach

Developed Two Simulations to evaluate AATMS
performance
– Overall System Reliability
– System Operational Performance

Reliability Simulation based on data obtained
from Aviation Standards Body for FAA (Radio
Technical Commission for Aeronautics, Inc.)
 Operational Simulation used to compute data
on number of aircraft events
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Reliability Results

Reliability:
– All reliability data is end-to-end
– Predicted for 0.99798
– Monte Carlo Simulation resulted in 0.99945
over 20 years
Power
Group
(0.99999)
Surveillance
Group
(0.999)
Comms
Group
(0.99999)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Network
Group
(0.999)
Airport Geometry
Meter Point B
Meter Point B
8 mi (42240 ft.)
4500 ft.
6 mi (31680 ft.)
8 mi (42240 ft.)
Meter Point A
Meter Point A
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Operational Simulation
Parameters

Arriving Aircraft Speeds: 90 and 120 knots
 Gaussian Distribution for Aircraft Interarrival
Times
– Mean (): 4, 5, and 6 minutes
– Standard Deviation () : 20 seconds

Repositioning event = aircraft Standard Rate
Turn
– 360o turn = 2 minutes
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Operational Results
10 Arrivals/hour
14
12 Arrivals/hour
12
15 Arrivals/hour
10
8
6
4
2
Separation Distance Intervals (nm)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
-9
.5
9.
1
-8
.5
8.
1
-7
.5
7.
1
-6
.5
6.
1
-5
.5
5.
1
-4
.5
4.
1
-3
.5
3.
1
-2
.5
2.
1
-1
.5
1.
1
-.
5
0
0
Instances (x1000) over 30 days
16
Total Reposition Events
Number of Occurrences over 30 days
4500
4055
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
259
500
0
7
0
6
8
10
Arrivals Per Hour
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
12
14
Conclusion

The AATMS Max AO architecture can safely
and reliably handle 12 aircraft arrivals per
hour
 The investment to provide this capability is
62% less than the cost to
construct/operate/maintain a Low Density FAA
Manned Control Tower.
 YES! We can provide equivalent Tower Safety
at a lower cost.
“Luck is the residue of good design.”
– Bobby Jones
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team