Transcript BẢO VỆ LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ

Vietnam’s approach to the TransPacific Partnership Agreement
Dao Ngoc Tien (PhD)
Foreign Trade University
Email: [email protected]
University of Melbourne,
May 2013
1
Vietnam’s approach to the TPP
1. Overview on Vietnam’s participation in TPP
2. Overall impact of the TPP
3. Specific issues
The presentation reflects personal opinions of the
presenter, not of any government, institutions
2
Overview on Vietnam’s participation in the TPP
3
Vietnam’s approach to the TPP
What Vietnam can gain from the TPP?
GDP growth and more international trade
but create winners and losers
Momentum for further reform
but strong determination and preparation
4
The gains from TPP by countries
Application of CGE model
Australia
Brunei
Canada
Chile
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Mexico
New Zealand
Peru
Singapore
United States
Vietnam
TPP Economies
Others
GDP ($bill)
2025
1,426
22
1,982
289
5,332
2,063
422
1,999
206
311
386
20,337
235
35,010
66,957
Income gain ($bill)
TPP
FTAAP
5
13
0
0
7
12
4
7
53
115
19
71
12
25
12
42
2
3
8
9
2
6
39
143
36
66
200
512
-27
687
% GDP
TPP
FTAAP
0.4
0.9
0.9
1.8
0.4
0.6
1.5
2.3
1.0
2.2
0.9
3.4
2.7
6.0
0.6
2.1
1.0
1.4
2.5
2.9
0.6
1.6
0.2
0.7
15.5
28.0
0.6
1.5
5 1.0
0.0
The gains from TPP by countries
Application of CGE model
70
60
FTAAP
50
TPP & RCEP
40
TPP only
30
20
RCEP only
10
0
Slide 6
The gains from TPP by countries
Application of CGE model
Baseline
2025
Primary products
Rice
Wheat
Other agriculture
Mining
Change in exports $bill.
TPP-12
RCEP
FTAAP
22.9
2.4
0.0
6.5
14.0
-2.8
-0.2
0.0
-1.3
-1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
-3.7
-0.2
0.0
-1.4
-2.1
Manufactures
Food, beverages
Textiles
Apparel, footwear
Chemicals
Metals
Electrical equipment
Machinery
Transport equipment
Other manufactures
207.4
5.9
26.0
113.0
8.8
5.2
6.6
14.4
3.2
24.2
71.5
-0.9
12.9
51.9
0.0
-0.1
1.1
2.0
0.2
4.3
28.8
-0.3
5.0
19.5
1.3
0.0
1.0
1.7
0.5
0.2
142.8
-1.6
30.1
106.4
2.0
-0.6
1.3
3.0
0.5
1.7
Services
Utilities
Construction
Trade, transport, comm.
Private services
Public services
Total
8.6
0.0
1.2
2.3
5.1
0.1
239.0
-0.8
0.0
0.0
-0.3
-0.5
0.0
67.9
0.5
0.0
0.7
0.1
-0.2
0.0
29.9
-1.5
0.0
0.4
-0.4
-1.4
0.0
137.7
Slide 7
The gains from TPP by countries
Application of CGE model
Baseline
2025
Primary products
Rice
Wheat
Other agriculture
Mining
Change in imports in 2025, $bill.
TPP-12
RCEP
FTAAP
9.5
0.0
0.5
7.8
1.2
2.7
0.0
0.0
2.5
0.2
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
4.3
0.0
-0.1
4.1
0.3
Manufactures
Food, beverages
Textiles
Apparel, footwear
Chemicals
Metals
Electrical equipment
Machinery
Transport equipment
Other manufactures
210.9
13.1
41.7
3.5
49.6
36.9
9.5
34.5
13.9
8.2
49.8
2.6
18.4
2.8
9.3
6.2
1.3
3.9
2.3
3.1
25.1
1.3
8.0
1.3
4.7
3.8
0.9
1.9
1.7
1.6
103.6
5.1
40.6
7.4
18.4
12.0
2.3
6.5
4.6
6.7
Services
Utilities
Construction
Trade, transport, comm.
Private services
Public services
Total
19.3
0.0
0.5
7.7
7.1
4.0
239.7
12.9
0.0
0.3
5.6
5.9
1.1
65.4
3.8
0.0
0.0
1.6
1.8
0.4
29.7
27.0
0.0
0.5
12.3
12.2
2.0
134.9
Slide 8
The gains from TPP by countries
Application of gravity model
Ln(EXvnjt)= 8.652296+ 0.501469Ln(Yvnt*Yjt) +
1.091872Ln (POPvnt*POPjt) -1.817045Ln(DISvnjt) +
0.000174ERvnjt -
0.145798Tvnjt (1)
Ln(IMvnjt)= -0.134178+ 0.890556 (YVNt*Yjt) +
1.189474Ln(POPvnt*POPjt) -0.353488Ln(DISvnjt) +
0.000132ERvnjt
- 0.593056Tvnjt (2)
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Expectation of enterprise
on export growth from TPP
Country
% respodents
Product
% respondents
USA
89,4%
Garment
77,6%
Peru
30,3%
Footwear
53,7%
Chile
33,3%
Furniture
29,9%
Australia
47,0%
Fishery
70,1%
New Zealand
33,3%
Agriculture
65,7%
Singapore
30,3%
Others
14,9%
Brunei
13,6%
Malaysia
19,7%
10
Expectation of enterprise
on import growth from TPP
% respondents
Country
Average
Materials
Machinery
USA
2.19
USA
46.9%
81.3%
Australia
2.41
Chile
34.4%
10.9%
Singapore
2.58
Peru
29.7%
10.9%
Malaysia
3.05
Australia
31.3%
43.8%
New Zealand
2.69
New Zealand
31.3%
31.3%
Peru
3.12
Singapore
54.7%
6.3%
Chile
3.12
Brunei
18.8%
57.8%
Brunei
3.26
Malaysia
29.7%
28.1%
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Overall impact of the TPP:
momentum for reform
1. Overall impact of the TPP
1. Specific issues
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Overall impact of the TPP:
momentum for reform
Vietnam’s international integration milestones:
1986: began “Doi moi” – economic reform policy
1995: joined Association of South East Asia Nations –
ASEAN
2007: joined the WTO
---- : FTAs with big partners?
13
Overall impact of the TPP:
momentum for reform
Vietnam’s export
Country
USA
Value
annual
growth
2007-2011
% of VN’s
export
Vietnam’s import
% of
partner’s
import
Value
annual
growth
2007-2011
% of VN’s
import
% of
partner’s
export
18.454
12%
18,9
0,8
4.341
21%
3,8
0,3
Chile
Peru
Australia
New Zealand
165
102
2916
200
25%
33%
-9%
18%
0,2
0,1
3,0
0,2
0,2
0,3
1,2
0,6
334
78
1949
336
37%
10%
11%
9%
0,3
0,1
1,7
0,3
0,4
0,2
0,8
0,9
Brunei
Singapore
8
1659
n/a
-9%
0,01
1,7
0,3
0,5
0
10211
n/a
8%
0
8,9
0
2,5
Malaysia
Canada
Mexico
3377
1346
974
14%
16%
19%
1,8
1,4
1,0
1,4
0,3
0,3
3819
339
64
15%
3%
12%
3,3
0,3
0,1
1,7
0,08
0,02
14
Overall impact of the TPP
15
Overall impact of the TPP
What Vietnam can gain from the TPP?
GDP growth and more international trade
but create winners and losers
Momentum for further reform
but strong determination and preparation
Possible of accelerated negotiation
Taken into account
the current status of Vietnam
(flexibilities, exceptions, transition periods,..)
16
Specific issues
1. Tariff elimination, RoO
2. Labour and trade union
3. IPs and pharmaceuticals
17
Tariff elimination
100% tariff elimination
P4: ALL and IMMEDIATELY
Infant industry argument + WTO’s principles + reality of
Vietnam’s FTAs
 Require a phasing periods:
+ second-hand automobiles
+ WTO’s tariff quota list: tobacco leaf, sugar, salt and egg
+ meat, diary products (see AANZFTA)
18
Vietnam’s tariff reduction in FTAs
19
Tariff elimination
Rules of Origin: yarn forward
closely together with tariff reduction for garment in the US
current value chain of garment products in Vietnam
Fabric from non-TPP countries  Export to the US
Possibilities of loosening yarn-forward rule:
+ short provision
+ bridging period
20
Labour and trade union
ILO’s principles
current ones: Vietnam has already signed
future ones: unpredictable, should not be bound
Working conditions
Freedom to establish labour union / association
21
IPs and pharmaceuticals
IP protection need to be balanced with the need of developing
countries.
WTO’s Declaration on the TRIPS agreement and public
health adopted on 14 November 2001
Grant a patent for new forms, uses, or methods of using a known
product;
 Create difficult for patents to access public health care.
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Vietnam’s approach to the TPP
Thank you!
Q&A
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