Transcript www.aspo-australia.org.au

The Impact of Oil Depletion on
Australia
Bruce Robinson, Brian Fleay & Sherry Mayo
Sustainable Transport Coalition
Sustainable Transport
Coalition
ASPO Lisbon May 2005
Look Out Australia !
Something serious
is looming on the radar
???
???
??
??
1
Summary
Australia, now
Oil demand, production, use (transport)
Geography, population
3 different countries
remote, rural, urban
High Oil Vulnerability
Australia will be badly affected by oil depletion,
unless substantial changes are made
Possible change options for government
2
Australia uses
45,000 megalitres
of oil each year
a 360m cube
Sydney Harbour Bridge
is 134 m high
3
80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport
=1.3 EfT
If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = 9%
3
Oil Consumption bbl/day
(blue = net
imports,
red = production)
Total
Oil Consumption
M bbl/day
Production
Net imports
20,000,000
20
China
EU 15 +
Norway
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
Australia
12,000,000
10,000,000
10
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
l
1 km
l
2,000,000
United States
0
Australia
Aust
EU-15
USA
C hina
Japan
Eu-15+ USA China Japan
Registeredvehicles
Vehicles per
1000people
Registered
/1000
Oil consumption bbl/day/1000 people
70
0
900
800
60
700
50
600
40
500
30
400
300
20
200
10
100
0
0
Aust
Eu-15
USA China Japan
Australia
Aust
EU-15
USA
China
Japan
Eu-15 USA China Japan
4
Australia's liquid fuel production
decline began in 2001.
Powell, Geoscience Australia, 2001
5
Australia’s oil production and consumption
1965-2030
Actual
Forecast
1.0
1.0
Million barrels/day
Consumption
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
Production
0.4
0.4
P50
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
1965
1
11
1985
21
31
2005
41
51
2025
61
Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE
6
Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil Production
Geoscience Australia (Australian Geological Survey)
Actual
k bbl/day
800
Forecasts
1980 P50
1982 P50
700
1984 Average
1985 Average
600
1987 P50
1989 P50
500
1990 P50
1993 P50
400
1994 P50
1995 P50
300
1996 P50
1998 P50
200
1999 P50
2000 P50
2001 P50
100
0
1975
2002 P50
2003 P50
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Actual
Evolution of Forecasts of Australian Oil Production
Geoscience Australia (Australian Geological Survey)
Actual
k bbl/day
800
Forecasts
1980 P50
1982 P50
700
1984 Average
1985 Average
600
1987 P50
1989 P50
500
1990 P50
1993 P50
400
1994 P50
1995 P50
300
1996 P50
1998 P50
200
100
0
1975
Past liquids production forecasts have often proven
too low.
NGL production depends on gas contracts
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
1999 P50
2000 P50
2001 P50
2002 P50
2003 P50
Actual
Australia
“A wide brown land”
“The Tyranny of Distance”
Annual rainfall
mm
3200
1600
Perth to Sydney 3300 km
800
400
Big
Mostly arid
Mostly low fertility soils
20 M people
Already exceeding sustainable population
9
Europe and Australia
by night – same scale, same brightness
10
Remoteness classification
Major cities
Inner regional
Outer regional
Remote
Very remote
Outer
regional
Very remote
Remote
3 separate countries
Remote Regional Urban
3%
31%
66%
Inner
regional
Major cities
11
Remote Australia
mining, pastoral, indigenous
Indigenous
communities
2.4% of Australians
are indigenous
ROAD ACCESS:
800 km to Alice
Springs. 1110 km to
Kalgoorlie
Weekly police patrol
visits by vehicle from
Laverton, 750 km to the
West.
Twice weekly small
aircraft from Alice
Springs to Kalgoorlie,
Blackstone community
The largest dots indicate 500 people or more, the smallest less than 50
12
Blackstone Community Circa 100-200 people
ROAD: 800 km to Alice Springs (food and fuel)
13
Iron ore train, Pilbara ~ 200M tonne p.a.
Road trains
14
Brockman Iron Formation, near Mt Tom Price, NW Western Australia
15
Rural
Australia
Sparsely
populated
16
17
Urban/Suburban
Australia
Institute for Sustainability
and Technology Policy
Murdoch University, Perth
City wealth vs car use
per capita (1990)
wealth
car use
5000
0000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
GRP/person
0
US
US
kms/person
Australian
Aus
Europe
Europe
18
Urban Australia
Keilor Downs
NW Melbourne
19
Keilor Downs
Melbourne Urban Sprawl
30 km
20
100%
Urban passenger mode shares
Australia
Car
90%
Mode share (per cent)
80%
Car
High automobile-dependence
70%
60%
50%
40%
Public transport share
is very low
30%
Rail
20%
Other
Bus
10%
0%
1945
1950
Potterton BTRE 2003
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
21
Non-urban passenger outlook:
Air grows faster than other modes
250
(billion pkm)
200
Actual
Air
Rail
Other
Bus
Car
Projections
Air
passenger
150
100
Car
50
0
1970
Potterton BTRE 2003
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
22
$10 PER LITRE PETROL: A SCENARIO
(a ten-fold increase)
David Rice, Senior WA Transport Planner
The scenario means “What if petrol reaches $10/l?
Planners should include this scenario, as well as “business-as-usual”
But why $10/l?
Simple
memorable
an illustration of ‘expensive’
www.stcwa.org.au/beyondoil/$10petrol.doc
23
24
The impact of
oil depletion
on Australian cities.
The bushfire analogy
The Canberra fire-storms of
January 2003 destroyed over
400 houses; on the outer edge
of the outer suburbs
Reliable predictions
had been ignored by
the authorities,
and there was no
effective action to
minimise the risks
25
Satellite image of
Canberra region
showing firedamage from the
west. January
2003.
Red hues are burnt
areas.
White lines show
suburbs
26
Perth
Oil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario,
may well wipe out the
entire outer rows of
suburbs from Perth,
with the same results
of destroyed homes,
broken dreams and
broken marriages.
30 km
27
Perth
Oil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario,
may well wipe out the
entire outer rows of
suburbs from Perth,
with the same results
of destroyed homes,
broken dreams and
broken marriages.
30 km
28
Perth
Oil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario,
may well wipe out the
entire outer rows of
suburbs from Perth,
with the same results
of destroyed homes,
broken dreams and
broken marriages.
30 km
29
Perth
Oil shocks, like the
$10/litre scenario,
may well wipe out the
entire outer rows of
suburbs from Perth,
with the same results
of destroyed homes,
broken dreams and
broken marriages.
30 km
30
The outskirts of all
Australian cities will be
hard hit by oil depletion,
Perth
30 km
as public transport
infrastructure is very poor
31
UK National Newspaper
The Guardian
Tuesday December 2, 2003
“Bottom of the barrel
The world is running out of oil - so why do
^
politicians refuse to talk about it?
Every generation has its taboo ..the resource
upon which our lives have been built is running out. We
don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it.
This is a civilisation in denial”.
George Monbiot see www.monbiot.com
32
June 15, 2004
Govt releases new energy strategy
Future oil summary, IEA only
“No Worries”
Another “Intelligence Failure”
like WMD?
33
Western Australian State Government
“Production itself is likely to peak,
maybe as early as 2006,
but more conventionally 2010 – 2015”
WA Minister
Alannah MacTiernan
“It is also certain that the cost of preparing
too early is nowhere near the cost of not
being ready on time.”
Queensland State Parliament
“Peak oil represents the most
serious and immediate
challenge to our prosperity and
security.
It will impact on our lives more
certainly than terrorism,
global warming, nuclear war
or bird flu.”
34
Gb/year
50
Efficiency
40
World oil
shortfall scenarios
30
Past Production of Oil
Demand
Growth
Transport
mode shifts
Pricing / taxes
City design/lifestyle
Other petroleum fuels
gas, tar-sands
Other fuels
20
Forecast
Production
10
0
1930
Deprivation, war
2005
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
• no single “Magic Bullet” solution,
• Noah! Start now! Hard to build the ark under water
after Swenson, 2000
35
Individualised Marketing: Travel behaviour change
Equivalent to discovering another Iraq?
Reducing automobile travel can produce “nega-barrels”* of oil
more cheaply than oil can be found by exploration.
(*negative oil, saved by conservation)
Large programs in cities in Germany,
Australia & Sweden have shown sustained
average reductions of 13% in car-kms
travelled.
Discovering
another
Iraq ?
Individualised Marketing informs
interested people of available travel
options. They are empowered to choose
different travel modes and to reduce
unnecessary travel.
About half the world’s 80 million barrels
of oil per day goes on road transport.
The strategy (IndiMark®) was developed
by Munich firm Socialdata.
A 5% reduction in global motor vehicle
transport usage would save about as
much oil as Iraq now produces (circa 2M
b/d).
Reduction of 10% in US travel alone
would save half an “Iraq”.
www.Socialdata.de
www.STCwa.org.au/negabarrels
36
Petrol taxes OECD
Au$
cents/litre
UK
Portugal
€
0.80
0.60
Australia
0.40
0.20
US
0.00
IEA Dec 2003
37
The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher
pence
Nominal tax per litre (pence)
50
Real tax
40
30
20
10
0
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European
levels on a fuel tax escalator
38
“Add in the geopolitical
costs of oil and the case
for raising petrol taxes,
especially in America,
becomes overwhelming”
April 30th- May 6th 2005
39
Water Analogy for Fuel Pricing
A rational pricing system
Perth domestic water
Renewable scarce resource
A personal fuel SmartCard
system could tax petrol and
diesel on a sliding scale like
water.
People could trade unused
allocations to those who
want more fuel.
WA domestic water prices, 2002/03
$1.50
/kl
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
0
150
350
550
kl range
750
1150 1950
40
There are innumerable “Perverse” subsidies
to
roads,
4WDs
profligate vehicle users
heavy inefficient vehicles
Tax on cars as
part of salary
FBT tax on motor vehicles
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
15,000
25,000
km range
40,000
Supermarket petrol discounts
People who walk to the
supermarket are subsidising
those who drive in the big SUVs
41
Participatory Democracy
1300 people at city planning workshop Perth 2003
Oil depletion action
needs an informed and
engaged community
42
Australian Government Policy and Action Options
1: “Talk about it, Talk about it”
2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy”
3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and
excessive freight transport.
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users.
Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage.
5: SmartCard personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil
shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage..
6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence,
not just “technological fixes”
7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management.
8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads.
9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services
and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system.
10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each
may reduce their risks.
11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion,
and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An
international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option.
43
Australia must not let the
opportunities slip away
Many of the policy options to reduce
fuel usage will also lead to wealthier,
healthier and happier communities.
Australia is very well placed globally
 Big attitude changes in past;
to race, gender, smoking, water..
 World-leading demand management skills
TravelSmart and water conservation
 Considerable uncommitted gas reserves
Failure to act now will prove incredibly costly
Abstract at www.STCwa.org.au/aspo
See our “Oil: Living with Less” policy
Sustainable Transport Coalition www.STCwa.org.au
44
Two spare slides follow in case of questions
45
Bicycles are powered
by biomass,
renewable energy,
either breakfast cereal
or abdominal fat
No shortage of either
“Oil: Living with Less” at www.STCwa.org.au
46
Australia
US
China
47