Transcript INDEXED EMPLOYMENT FOR SELECTED OCCUPATIONAL …

OCCUPATIONAL INFORMATION IN
AUSTRALIA
National Forum on Labour Market Information
Workshop presentation
Denis Hart
Employment Analysis and Evaluation Group, DEWR
Canberra, Australia
Overview of presentation
Four areas of discussion:
• Employment projections - for industries and
occupations
• Occupational coding – development of new
occupational classification (ANZSCO)
• Online occupational information – Job Outlook, Job
Explorer, Australian Training
• Matching job seekers and vacancies – moving
towards ‘perfect matching’
Industry employment projections
• Recent/historical employment data – trend data from 1986,
changes over 10/5/2/1 years (including % pa)
• Monash model forecasts – large scale, input-output based
simulation model of economy/employment; includes
macroeconomic scenario (cyclical variations)
• Service industries (where most of the ‘employment action’
happens) not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing
• ‘Reality’ test model forecasts and prepare ‘DEWR’ projections
for around 160 industries – constant % pa for next six years (all
industries agrees with Treasury ‘out year’ forecasts)
• ‘Preferred’ industry employment forecasts are put into Monash
model – to generate alternate set of occupation projections
Occupational employment projections
• Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’
version), and actual employment growth trends
• Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and
our previous projections (2000 to 2003)
• Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth,
whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends
and qualitative information on occupations (eg new
technology, structural change, changes in work organisation)
• Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into
our occupational structure
• Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in
Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)
Using employment projections
• Strong demand for forward-looking industry and occupation data
- employment services, career exploring, education planning
• New ways of communicating key messages from projections
(eg share of new jobs, largest contributors to future job growth)
• DEWR focuses on the demand side (employment portfolio), but
interest in demand and supply comparisons (eg Workforce 2005)
• Looking at greater sharing of employment projections across
government agencies (eg future graduate labour market, VET
planning and industry skill needs)
• Employment growth is key consideration in job prospects, but
job turnover, unemployment and other factors considered (eg skill
shortages, main employing industries)
Occupational classification
• Australia and New Zealand are currently developing a new
occupational classification structure – the Australian and New
Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO)
• Jointly being developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics
(ABS), Statistics New Zealand (SNZ), with assistance from
DEWR (we are closely involved with its development)
• This will replace the existing classification – Australian
Standard Classification of Occupations (ASCO) 2nd edition
• Due for implementation in 2006 Censuses in New Zealand
(early 2006) and Australia (August 2006).
ANZSCO - overview of timeline
• 1986 - classification of occupations standardised with
implementation of 1st edition of ASCO
• Review of classification is conducted every ten years, in line
with every second Australian Census
• 1996 - ASCO 2nd edition implemented for Australia – nine
major groups, 35 sub-major groups, 82 minor groups and 340
unit groups (and 986 ‘occupations’)
• ANZSCO is to be implemented in 2006 - in time for the
Australian and New Zealand Censuses.
• A draft of the proposed occupational structure for ANZSCO
is nearing completion, and user views are being sought.
• ICT occupations have been a particular focus – DEWR has
been coordinating an ICT nomenclature working group
Conceptual Model
• ANZSCO will be a skill based classification, using the
concepts of both skill level and skill specialisation to group
occupations together.
• ANZSCO will differ from previous occupation classifications
in the application of skill level.
• Like ASCO 2nd edition, there will be five skill levels in
ANZSCO, ranging from occupations requiring a degree and
work experience (such as Specialist Medical Practitioners), to
those which require only the completion of compulsory
secondary schooling and no experience (eg Kitchenhands).
• Previously, skill level was applied at the major group level of
the classification (each Major Group had only one skill level).
Conceptual Model (continued)
• In ANZSCO, skill level is applied less rigidly than previously –
however, each sub-major group will be at one skill level only,
with some exceptions.
• Responding to feedback about ASCO 2nd edition, approach is
aimed at classification being more user-friendly and intuitive
at all levels, including better titling and groupings at each level.
• Three options were developed: (1) minor changes to ASCO 2nd
edition; (2) preferred option; and (3) a user-friendly and less
conceptually rigorous option - developed by DEWR.
• Stakeholders have been consulted throughout the development
process and will be provided with a full draft of the structure
for their consideration by mid 2004.
Comparison of major groups
ASCO 2ND edition
ANZSCO
Managers and administrators
Managers
Professionals
Professionals
Associate professionals
Technicians and trades workers
Tradespersons
Advanced clerical and service
Community and personal service
workers
Intermediate clerical, sales and service
Clerical and administrative workers
Intermediate production and transport
Sales workers
Elementary clerical, sales and service
Machinery operators and drivers
Labourers
Labourers
Nine major groups
Eight major groups
DEWR ‘top’ occupational structure
Accounting, Finance and
Management
Health, Fitness, Hair and Beauty
Building and Construction
Cleaning
Labourers, Factory and Machine
Workers
Clerks, Receptionists and
Secretaries
Marketing and Sales
Representatives
Computing and IT
Media, the Arts and Printing
Drivers and Transport
Metal and Engineering Trades
Electrical and Electronics Trades
Motor Vehicle Service and Repair
Engineering, Science and the
Environment
Sales Assistants and Storepersons
Food, Hospitality and Tourism
Teaching, Child Care and Library
Gardening, Farming and Fishing
Social, Welfare and Security
Skilled vacancies – Professionals and Trades
250
Professionals
Trades
200
150
100
50
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Job Outlook online - Chefs
Key indicators (graph) - Chefs
Key indicators (table) - Chefs
Chefs
Indicator
Rank
(decile)
50,000
9
83.9% FT
5
$668 per week
4
Average
6
Long-term employment growth – 10 years (to May 2003)
6.3% a year
8
Medium-term employment growth – 5 years (to may 2003)
3.4% a year
6
Short-term employment growth – 2 years (to May 2003)
5.2% a year
7
What is the likely future employment growth (to 2009-10)?
strong growth++
10
Is the occupation employed mainly in growth industries?
highly favourable
10
13.7% a year
7
very high
9
VERY GOOD
10
How many workers are employed in this occupation?
What is the mix of full-time and part-time jobs?
How much do full-time workers earn on average (before tax)?
How does unemployment compare with other occupations?
Job openings from turnover – how many leave the occupation?
Vacancies – does the occupation have a high vacancy level?
JOB PROSPECTS
Job Prospects
In assessing job prospects DEWR examines:
• Projected employment growth for the next six years
(including forecasts from the ‘Monash’ model)
• Historical employment trends
• Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries
• Unemployment for the occupation
• Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes
• Whether there are skill shortages
• Job turnover - the number of workers leaving the
occupation (job opportunities for new workers)
Sources of vacancies - Chefs
Educational profile - Chefs
Job Explorer – occupational ‘gold mine’
Jobjuice – for school leavers
Matching on Occupation
• Status quo for most matching, albeit with some refinements
(matching on skills in ‘text’ in resumes/vacancies)
• Vocational profiles: job seekers select up to five ‘areas’ of
interest and up to 25 occupations for matching
• Vacancies from Job Placement Organisations (JPOs): linked
via 10,000+ keywords to occupations (unique occupation for
each keyword)
• External vacancies (eg online recruitment sites): also coded
to occupations via keywords as prelude to matching
• Matching could be refined through an option to match on ‘job
titles’ and/or ‘skills’, aided by ‘drop down’ menus.
Matching on Job Title
• Option would be to match on ‘job title’ independent of the
coded occupation
• Example 1: ‘hotel receptionist’ (linked to ‘receptionist’
occupation - more easily matched by hotel employer)
• Example 2: ‘financial analyst’, coded to ‘financial adviser’
could also be matched by accounting employer
• Job title matching would add precision, and ‘drop down’
menus, reflecting frequency of vacancy occurrence (see
accountant), could add structure and better matching
• Around 2,000 job titles (guesstimate) in Australia. Keywords
file of 10,500 ‘titles’ would be a way to start to developing a
list of job titles.
Accountant – Job Titles (ranked)
Accountant
Financial Accountant
Management Accountant
Senior Accountant
Chartered Accountant
Financial Analyst
Business Analyst
Tax Accountant
Intermediate Accountant
Auditor
Credit Analyst
Systems Accountant
Tax Consultant/Advisor
Senior Auditor
Comp Accountant
Internal Auditor
Corporate Accountant
Group Accountant
Cost Accountant
Fund Accountant
Project Accountant
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Matching on Skills
• Towards ‘perfect matching’: job title and skills
• A ‘what employers want’ approach (vacancy focused - job
seekers responding to employers’ advertised skill needs)
• How do we gather data on skills and their importance?
• Possible sources: current and recent vacancies, specialised
recruiting sites, industry training packages
• Could focus on skills/job requirements as in vacancies, ranked
by frequency (Accountants example)
• Other issues: employability skills (important to employers, but
only partly in vacancies) and occupational requirements (eg
licence for taxi driving).
Accountant – Skills (ranked)
Accountancy
CPA
Tax
Certified Accountant
MYOB
Chartered Accounting
Reporting
Computer Skills
Excel
Financial Accounting
Customer Service
Business Services
Payroll
Financial Reports
Budgeting
Bookeeping/Asst Acc't
BAS Returns
Supervision
Accounts Payable
Analysis
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Matching Vacancies and Job Seekers
• ‘Perfect matching’ would offer matching at four levels:
–
–
–
–
Occupation (around 400 occupations – ‘receptionist’)
Occupation and skills (for ‘receptionist’ overall)
Job title (possibly around 2000 – ‘medical receptionist’)
Job title and skills (skills for ‘medical receptionist’)
• Key issues include:
– How to ‘capture’ vacancy and job seeker information to
facilitate better matching
– How to improve ‘gateways’ to matching: top occupational
structure and perhaps incorporate an industry focus
– Incorporation of easy to use ‘drop down/click on’ menus.