Transcript Revolutions, Social Movements, and Contentious Politics

Slides for Sociology W3480: Part 1 of 3
Revolutions, Social Movements, and Contentious Politics
Columbia College
Spring 2007
Prepared by
Charles Tilly and
Ernesto Castañeda
send questions to
[email protected]
Preface
This turned out to be Professor Tilly’s last undergraduate
course. Professor Tilly died of lymphoma on April 29, 2008.
May he rest in peace. We’ll miss him greatly.
For testimonials on his many human and scholarly
contributions visit: http://www.ssrc.org/essays/tilly/
I hope that these slides are a partial testimony to Tilly’s
enduring analytical power.
Ernesto Castañeda. New York. October 6, 2008.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Copyright notes
•
Instructors and students can use this material for educational purposes as
long as they cite the source as: “Contentious Politics Class Slides and Notes.
2007. Prepared by Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda. Columbia University.”
•
Copyright note: the diagrams, texts, and pictures are reproduced here under fair
use terms for educational not-for-profit purposes. Many of them come directly
from Tilly’s computer files often from manuscripts of books and articles prior to
publication. If you feel you are the owner of copyrighted material used here and
want it removed from these slides please e-mail: [email protected]
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
3
From Tilly’s Syllabus
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This course should help undergraduates who already have a background in social
science and/or modern history to think systematically about contentious politics –
processes in which people make conflicting collective claims on each other or on third
parties – as they participate in them, observe them, and/or learn about how they are
happening elsewhere. We will spend little time reviewing theories of political contention or
methods for gathering and analyzing evidence. We will spend most of our time examining
how such forms of contention as social movements, revolutions, nationalist mobilization,
and ethnic conflict have worked in different times and places, as well as thinking through
parallels and differences among them. Most sessions will operate as lecture-discussions.
For their own inquiries, students will choose some current site of contention, use a
standard source (for example, a daily newspaper or online reports of human rights
agencies) to catalog episodes of contention occurring in that site during the semester, and
then write three memoranda as they go: brief summaries and interpretations of the
patterns of contention they discover with connections to the required course readings. We
will have short-answer midterm and final examinations. Examinations will draw on class
sessions, required reading, and memoranda.
Ambitious students may propose different inquiries, just so long as they are at least
equally valuable and difficult; subject to the instructor’s prior approval, for example,
students might a) interview social-movement activists, b) report participant observation in
contentious politics, c) compare reporting of some particular stream of contention in two
different media, or d) reconstruct the history of a significant contentious episode or a
cluster of connected episodes. (Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Required readings
Beth Roy, Some Trouble with Cows. Berkeley: University of
California Press, 1994.
Charles Tilly, Social Movements, 1768-2004. Boulder:
Paradigm Press, 2004.
Charles Tilly and Sidney Tarrow, Contentious Politics.
Boulder: Paradigm Press, 2006.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE OF SESSIONS AND ASSIGNMENTS
A. Claims, Politics, and Contention
Read Charles Tilly & Sidney Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapters 1-3
(Lectures by Charles Tilly except where noted)
17 January Introduction to contentious politics and this course
22 January forms of government and of politics
24 January how contention works and changes
B. Who, How, and What?
Read: Beth Roy, Some Trouble with Cows
29 January networks, boundaries, and identities; Ernesto Castañeda lecture
31 January ethnicity, race, religion, and nationality
5 February identity politics; memorandum #1 due: brief report (maximum 1,000 words) on plan for collecting
and analyzing contentious episodes; include a paragraph on likely strengths and weaknesses of your
sources
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE 2
C. Mobilization, Demobilization, and Struggle
Read Tilly & Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapters 4-6, plus Appendices A & B
(Charles Tilly lectures)
7 February
opportunities, threats, and constraints
12 February
mobilization processes
14 February
contentious repertoires
19 February
how forms of contention vary and change
D. Social Movements and Other Forms of Contention
Read Tilly, Social Movements, chapters 1-4
21 February
social movements in history
26 February
how people get involved
28 February
social movements across the world
5 March
review
7 March
midterm examination
12-14 March
spring holidays
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE 3
E. Contention and Democratization
Read Tilly, Social Movements, chapters 5-6
19 March regimes and democracy; (class canceled Professor Tilly in the hospital)
21 March waves of democratization; (Ernesto Castañeda lectures)
26 March struggle and democratization; (class canceled)
28 March democracy today and tomorrow; (class canceled)
F. War and Revolution
Read Tilly & Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapters 7 and 8
(All these lectures by Ernesto Castañeda)
2 April
Returning midterms and Democratization
4 April
Violent specialists, civil wars, and interstate wars
(memorandum #2 due: brief report on progress of contentious episodes project)
9 April
Violence, Terror, and Politics. Revolutions.
11 April
Coda on mercenaries, terror, violent events and organized crime.
Information on how to create an event catalogue.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
8
SPRING 2007: SCHEDULE 4
G. Contention Today and Tomorrow
Read Tilly, Social Movements, chapter 7 and Tilly & Tarrow, Contentious Politics, chapter 9
16 April
National, transnational, and international (Ernesto Castañeda lectures)
18 April
Globalization and contention (Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda lecture)
23 April
More on globalization (Charles Tilly and Ernesto Castañeda lecture)
25 April
The present and future of contentious politics (Charles Tilly lectures)
30 April
Conclusions and challenges (Charles Tilly lectures)
memorandum #3 due: report (maximum 3,000 words, not including appendices) on contentious
episodes project
7 May
FINAL EXAMINATION.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Components of Contentious Politics
CONTENTIOUS POLITICS
contention
collective
politics
action
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
10
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Contentious Politics on the Reuters and BBC Newswires,
New Year’s Day 2007
New Year brings 3,000th US death in Iraq; peace groups rally after 3,000th soldier killed
Somali Islamists flee toward Kenya and to the hills
Hispanics battle blacks in Major California prison riot
Foreigner, Palestinian gunmen abducted in Gaza
Gunfire between Palestinian factions
Indian mob clashes with police over backyard bones; crowd protests at Delhi murders
New Year bombs shake Bangkok
Thai PM blames rivals for blasts
Two killed in Kashmir gun battle
Kashmir protest against killing
DR Congo troops clash with rebels
Burkina police and army in truce
Goodyear deal set to end strike [in US]
Fijians wary after military coup
Voices from Bishkek [Kyrgyzstan] protest rally
Saddam’s supporters vow revenge
Palestinian deaths rose in 2006
Top Indian Maoist ‘is shot dead’
Pakistan police break up protest [in Rawalpindi]
Police disperse Ershad supporters [in Rangpur, Bangladesh]
French marchers say ‘non’ to 2007
Train strike [in UK] runs into second day
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
11
French Protestors Say No to
New Year 2007!
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
12
The Simple Regime Model
Challenger
Regime
Member
Outside
Actor
Government
Regime
Limits of
Government’s
Jurisdiction
Outside of Regime
Coalitions
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
13
POSSIBLE STUDENT PROJECTS
•
Monitor one ongoing civil war (e.g. in Ivory Coast, Sri Lanka, Palestine, or Colombia). Prepare a background sketch
of the conflict from a standard source such as the Annual Register, reports of Human Rights Watch, or the US State
Department’s regional reports; an online search will identify many possible sources. For at least two months of the
conflict, scan a daily source such as a national newspaper or CNN online for reports of actions, declarations, and
interventions. Prepare a timeline, analyze it for signs of change, and watch especially for signs that parties,
alignments, patterns of conflict, and stakes of the struggle are shifting. (If your evidence is rich enough, you might
concentrate on the conflict’s geography.) Write a brief report of your conclusions, linking them to course materials.
Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology,
map, and/or appendix.
•
Choose two countries and two years since 1999, when the Battle of Seattle occurred. Adopting plausible definitions
of “anti-globalization” and “protest,” prepare catalogs of anti-globalization protests in the two countries over the two
years. Examine what changes occur in claims participants make, what means they use to make those claims, how
they identify themselves, and how observers identify them. Look for similarities, differences, and connections
between the patterns you see in the two countries. Write a brief report of your conclusions, linking them to course
materials. Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph,
chronology, map, and/or appendix.
•
Identify one major social movement mobilization from the past, for example civil rights activism in Mississippi 19641968, one of the student uprisings of 1968, or anti-abortion activity in one American state during the decade
following the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision. Using at least ten sources (scholarly works,
newspaper accounts, films, oral histories, and/or interviews with participants), prepare a) a diagram of major groups
participating and their relations to each other, b) a chronology of the mobilization. Using course materials as your
guide, write an analysis of what effects that mobilization produced, and how it produced them. Make sure to include
a summary of the central evidence you’re interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology, map, and/or appendix.
•
Do the same for a current mobilization: for or against US policy in Iraq or Afghanistan, Brazilian responses to
American security policy, responses to sexual abuse by priests, calls for reparations to victims of racial
discrimination, South African AIDS policy, Chinese treatment of the Falun Gong, public discussions concerning the
reconstruction of Ground Zero, or something else. Make sure to include a summary of the central evidence you’re
interpreting such as a table, graph, chronology, map, and/or appendix.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
14
Political Opportunity, Political Threat, and
Their Impacts on Contention
Shifts in Opportunity = changes in the environment of political actors (in this case, idealized single
challenger) that signal shifts in likely consequences of different interactions with other actors
Category
Increasing Threat
Increasing Opportunity
openness of regime
regime closing down
regime increasingly open
coherence of elite
increasing solidarity of elite
increasing divisions within elite
stability of political alignments
increasing stability
rising instability
availability of allies
potential allies disappear or lose
power
new allies in regime available to
challengers
repression/facilitation
decreasing facilitation, rising
repression
increasing facilitation, declining
repression
This also applies cross-sectionally: if regime A is more open, its elites more divided, more generally
unstable, richer in potential allies, and less repressive than regime B, similar challengers will
contend more extensively and effectively in regime A
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Variation in Regimes
Zone of
Authoritarianism
1
Zone of
Citizenship
Govern-
Mental
Capacity
0
0
1
Democracy
Zone of
Fragmented Tyranny
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Crude Regime Types
1
HIGH CAPACITY
UNDEMOCRATIC
HIGH CAPACITY
DEMOCRATIC
LOW CAPACITY
UNDEMOCRATIC
LOW CAPACITY
DEMOCRATIC
Govern-
Mental
Capacity
0
0
1
Democracy
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
17
Rough Placement of Selected Regimes in
2007
1
MOROCCO
CANADA
INDIA
PERU
Govern-
Mental
Capacity
UGANDA
0
0
1
Democracy
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Revolutions, Social Movements, and Contentious Politics
Spring 2007
Networks, Identities, and Boundaries
Lecture
January 29th, 2007
Ernesto Castañeda
Networks
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Relational Account
Georg Simmel’s (1858-1918) Formal Analysis
Dyad
Triad
A
A
B
B
Web of Social Affiliations
or Social Network
C
A
Some Types of Ties
Social Tie
Transaction,
Conversation,
Routine contact,
Relationship…
B
C
D
Professional
Family
Romance
Business
21
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Triad Power Dynamics
tertius gaudens
A
B
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
C
22
Social Networks
Florentine alliances (Padgett 1993).
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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High school friendship: James Moody, Race, school integration, and friendship segregation in America,
American Journal of Sociology 107, 679-716 (2001).
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Identities
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Medieval Model
Independent corporations with specific attributes, obligations, and rights (Simmel).
Nobility
Army
Church
Franciscans
Guild
Burgers and
Bourgeoisie
Peasantry
26
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Identity is Relational
In modern times, and
especially in cities,
identity depends on the
context and the public:
(home/work/leisure…).
k
j
a
i
b
u
h
c
g
d
f
e
27
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Embedded and Detached Identities
(Tilly)
DETACHED
Many
Democrat/
Republican
Social
settings
ACLU
member
AA
Grassroots
organizations
Friends
Roommate
Family
EMBEDDED
One
Little
All
Social life
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Networks, Identities, and
Boundaries
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
29
Some Trouble with Cows
Beth Roy (1994)
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•
•
This trouble occurs in 1954 in Panipur which, after successive partitions belonged to India,
then to Pakistan, and then to Bangladesh. At that time, Panipur belonged to Pakistan, a
predominantly Muslim state with a substantial Hindu minority; only later would its region,
East Pakistan, acquire independence as overwhelmingly Muslim Bangladesh.
The village includes households labeled as Hindu or Muslim, but who live from day to day
with a much finer – and often cross-cutting – set of distinctions of: caste, class, property,
and gender.
What happened in 1954?
Golam Fakir’s cow got loose, strayed across the limits of Golam’s property, and ate lentils in
Kumar Tarkhania’s field. Instead of settling their differences immediately, however, both
farmers called in kinfolk, patrons, and allies. As a result, a minor dispute precipitated
broader and broader alignments of bloc against bloc. Escalation continued. Supporters
eventually took up available weapons.
Police intervened and eventually fired on the crowd.
Local and regional authorities sought pacification.
With each step outward and upward, redefinition of the conflict proceeded; the farther
and higher the incident went, the less it concerned complex, caste-and-class-mediated local
relations among farmers and the more it became part of national level communal struggles
between Hindus and Muslims.
The collective memories of the event were shaped not by the embedded, complex identities
but from the detached identities and larger categories.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
30
India
Pakistan
ENGLAND
Panipur
A BENGALI SOCIETY
Bangladeshis
State Officials
Hindus
Police
Mussalmans
Brahmins
Muslim officials
Kayasthas
Muslim Peasants
Namasudras
Converted Hindus
Kumar Tarkhania
Golam Fakir
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
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Boundaries, Ties, and Identities (Tilly)
Shared
stories
about
history,
social
boundaries,
and identity.
boundary
Ys
Xs
relations
within Xs
relations
relations across boundary
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
within Ys
32
POWER
• Power depends on network location and not on intrinsic
characteristics of the actors but on the social structure.
• Power is spread through society (see Foucault) since it
depends on social relations, tacit consent and implicit
and explicit laws.
• Power relations depend on embodied social knowledge
and norms which allow for social reproduction of durable
inequalities and power allocation (ideology, hegemony,
habitus, etc.)
• Social movements are times where people take action
to change relations of power and the existing social
arrangements. The results are contingent.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
33
Political Identities and Social Movements
•
In social movements, political identities are at stake. Claim-makers are
acting out answers to the question, "Who are you?“
•
In social movements a common identity is constructed and put forward.
Members have to show "WUNC": worthy, united, numerous, and committed.
•
Social movements link two complementary activities: assertions of identity
and statements of demands.
•
Social movements grew up in the nineteenth century as means by which
people currently excluded from political power could band together and
claim that power-holders should attend to their interests, or the interests
they represented.
•
Recognition of their claimed identities as wronged workers, dispossessed
peasants, or persecuted religious minorities constituted them as political
actors, but also drew them into bargaining collectively with existing holders
of power. That stress on identity assertion persists in social movements,
especially in their earlier stages, to the present day. Social movements
continue to assert the right to respect and political voice of indigenous
peoples, gays, conservative Christians, unborn children, etc.
•
Adapted from: Contentious conversation. Charles Tilly. Social
Research. New York: Fall 1998.Vol.65, 3; pg. 491, 20 pgs.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
34
Conclusions
• Violent conflict stems from relations that may or may not be
primarily violent.
• “…humans turn out to be interacting repeatedly with others,
renegotiating who they are, adjusting the boundaries they occupy,
modifying their actions in rapid response to other people's
reactions, selecting among and altering available scripts,
improvising new forms of joint action, speaking sentences no one
has ever uttered before, yet responding predictably to their
locations within webs of social relations they themselves cannot
map in detail. They tell stories about themselves and others that
facilitate their social interaction rather than laying out verifiable
facts about individual lives. They actually live in deeply relational
worlds. If social construction occurs, it happens socially, not in
isolated recesses of individual minds” (Tilly 1998).
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
35
Bibliography
Hanneman, Robert A. and Mark Riddle. Introduction to social network methods
http://faculty.ucr.edu/~hanneman/nettext/index.html
Hogan, Richard. Charles Tilly Takes Three Giant Steps from Structure toward Process: Mechanisms for
Deconstructing Political Process. Contemporary Sociology, Vol. 33, No. 3. (May, 2004), pp. 273-277. Stable
URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=00943061%28200405%2933%3A3%3C273%3ACTTTGS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-2
Newman, Mark. Gallery of network images. http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/networks/
Padgett, John F., Christopher K. Ansell. Robust Action and the Rise of the Medici, 1400-1434. American Journal
of Sociology, 98: 1259-1319, 1993
Pescosolido, Bernice A.; Beth A. Rubin. 2000. The Web of Group Affiliations Revisited: Social Life,
Postmodernism, and Sociology. American Sociological Review, Vol. 65, No. 1
Roy, Beth. 1994. Some Trouble with Cows: Making sense of Social Conflict. University of California Press.
Berkeley: CA.
Tilly, Charles. 2002. Stories, Identities, and Political Change. Rowman & Littlefield.
Tilly, Charles. 1998. Contentious conversation. Social Research. New York: Fall 1998.Vol.65, Iss. 3; pg. 491.
Simmel, Georg. 1955. Conflict and the Web of Group Affiliations. Translated by K.H. Wolff and R. Bendix. New
York. Free Press.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
36
Political
Identities and
the Census
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
37
Definitions from Appendix One of
Contentious Politics (2006)
• Government: within a given territory, an organization controlling the principal concentrated
means of coercion and exercising priority over all other organizations within the same
territory in some regards. In England of 1785, the organization included a king, ministers,
civil servants, Parliament, and a network of appointed agents throughout the country.
• Political actors: recognizable sets of people who carry on collective action in which
governments are directly or indirectly involved, making and/or receiving contentious
claims. In Ukraine, supporters of outgoing president Kuchma, backers of presidential
candidate Yushchenko, Interior Ministry troops, and external sponsors on both sides all
figured as weighty political actors.
• Political identities: as applied to political actors, organized answers to the questions “Who
are you?” “Who are they?” and “Who are we?” In late eighteenth-century England, some
of those answers included Abolitionists, slaveholders, and Parliament.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
38
Definitions 2
• Contentious politics: interactions in which actors make claims that bear on someone else’s
interests, leading to coordinating efforts on behalf of shared interests or programs, in which
governments are as targets, the objects of claims, or third parties.
• Contentious performances: relatively familiar and standardized ways in which one set of
political actors makes collective claims on some other set of political actors. Among other
performances, participants in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution used mass demonstrations as
visible, effective performances.
• Contentious repertoires: arrays of contentious performances that are currently known and
available within some set of political actors. England’s antislavery activists helped to invent
the demonstration as a political performance, but they also drew on petitions, lobbying, press
releases, public meetings, and a number of other performances.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
39
Definitions 3
• Institutions: within any particular regime, established, organized, widely recognized routines,
connections, and forms of organization employed repeatedly in producing collective
action. Eighteenth-century antislavery activists could work with such available institutions
as religious congregations, parliamentary hearings, and the press.
• Social movements: sustained campaigns of claim making, using repeated performances that
advertise that claim, based on organizations, networks, traditions, and solidarities that
sustain these activities.
We divide social movements into the following:
Social movement campaigns: sustained challenges to power holders in the name of a
population living under the jurisdiction of those power holders by means of public displays
of that population’s worthiness, unity, numbers, and commitment [WUNC].
Social movement bases: the social background, organizational resources, and cultural
framework of contention and collective action.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
40
Major Explanatory Concepts in
Contentious Politics
• Sites of contention: human settings that serve as originators, objects, and/or arenas of
contentious politics. Example: Armies often play all three parts in contention.
• Conditions: characteristics of sites and relations among sites that shape the contention
occurring in and across them. Initial conditions are those that prevail in affected sites at
the start of some process or episode. Example: In Italy of 1966, an array of political
organizations and the existing connections among them provided the background for the
cycle of conflict that occurred over the next seven years.
• Streams of contention: sequences of collective claim at or across those sites singled out for
explanation. Example: a series of strikes by workers in a given industry against their
firm(s).
• Outcomes: changes in conditions at or across the sites that are plausibly related to the
contention under study, including transformations of political actors or relations among
them. Example: During or after a series of strikes, management fires workers, changes
work rules, and/or raises wages.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
41
Major Explanatory Concepts 2
• Regimes: regular relations among governments, established political actors, challengers,
and outside political actors including other governments; eighteenth-century England and
twenty-first-century Ukraine obviously hosted very different regimes.
• Political opportunity structure: features of regimes and institutions (e.g., splits in the ruling
class) that facilitate or inhibit a political actor’s collective action; in the case of Ukraine
2004–2005, a divided international environment gave dissidents an opportunity to call on
foreign backers in the name of democracy.
• Mechanisms: events that produce the same immediate effects over a wide range of
circumstances. Example: Diffusion of tactics from one site to another often occurs during
major mobilizations, thus altering action at origin and destination as well as facilitating
coordination among the affected sites.
• Processes: combinations and sequences of mechanisms that produce some specified
outcome. Example: Major mobilizations usually combine brokerage and diffusion with
other mechanisms in sequences and combinations that strongly affect the collective action
emerging from the mobilization.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
42
Major Explanatory Concepts 3
• Episodes: bounded sequences of continuous interaction, usually produced by an
investigator’s chopping up longer streams of contention into segments for purposes of
systematic observation, comparison, and explanation. Example: We might compare
successive petition drives of antislavery activists in Great Britain (each drive counting as a
single episode) over the twenty years after 1785, thus not only seeing how participants in
one drive learned from the previous drive but also documenting how the movement as a
whole evolved.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
43
Mechanisms used in Contentious Politics
Attribution of similarity: identification of another political actor as falling within the same
category as your own.
Boundary activation/deactivation: increase (decrease) in the salience of the us-them
distinction separating two political actors.
Boundary formation: creation of an us-them distinction between two political actors.
Boundary shift: change in the persons or identities on one side or the other of an existing
boundary.
Brokerage: production of a new connection between previously unconnected or weakly
connected sites.
Certification: an external authority’s signal of its readiness to recognize and support the
existence and claims of a political actor. (Decertification: an external authority’s signal that
it is withdrawing recognition and support from a political actor.)
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
44
Mechanisms 2
Co-optation: incorporation of a previously excluded political actor into some center of power.
Defection: exit of a political actor from a previously effective coalition and/or coordinated action.
Diffusion: spread of a contentious performance, issue, or interpretive frame from one site to
another.
Emulation: deliberate repetition within a given setting of a performance observed in another
setting.
Repression: action by authorities that increases the cost—actual or potential— of an actor’s
claim making.
For more explanations, examples, and processes see source:
Tilly and Tarrow. 2006. “Contentious Politics.” Appendix A and B. Paradigm Publishers.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
45
Political Opportunity, Political Threat, and
Their Impacts on Contention
Shifts in Opportunity = changes in the environment of political actors (in this case, idealized single
challenger) that signal shifts in likely consequences of different interactions with other actors
Category
Increasing Threat
Increasing Opportunity
openness of regime
regime closing down
regime increasingly open
coherence of elite
increasing solidarity of elite
increasing divisions within elite
stability of political alignments
increasing stability
rising instability
availability of allies
potential allies disappear or lose
power
new allies in regime available to
challengers
repression/facilitation
decreasing facilitation, rising
repression
increasing facilitation, declining
repression
This also applies cross-sectionally: if regime A is more open, its elites more divided, more generally
unstable, richer in potential allies, and less repressive than regime B, similar challengers will
contend more extensively and effectively in regime A
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
46
Aerial Graph of Contention in Russia
(based on Bessinger 2001).
Figure 5.4: Demonstrations and Violent Events in the Soviet Union and Successor States,
1987-1992
300
250
Violent Events
Cumulative Number of Events
Demonstrations
200
150
100
50
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
0
Year
Source: Data Supplied by Mark Beissinger
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
47
Chronology of the Beijing Student Movement, 1989
4/16
At death of Hu Yaobang, former secretary general of Chinese Communist Party, students post wreaths and
elegiac couplets in Tiananmen Square and many Beijing colleges.
4/17
Students march to Tiananmen to memorialize Hu Yaobang.
4/20
Skirmishes between police and students at Xinhua Gate; some students begin class boycott.
4/22
Hu’s funeral in Great Hall of the People; about 50 thousand students march to Tiananmen to participate;
numerous student actions include kneeling on the Great Hall’s steps to deliver a petition and request a
meeting with premier Li Peng.
4/23
Students form Beijing Student Autonomous Union Provisional Committee.
4/26
People’s Daily editorial calls student mobilization “planned conspiracy” and “turmoil”.
4/27
About 100 thousand students march to Tiananmen and protest the editorial. State Council announces
willingness to meet with students.
4/29
Senior government officials meet with 45 selected students from 16 Beijing universities, but other
students challenge both the dialogue and the student representatives.
5/4
Students march in commemoration of the May 4th Movement (of 1919).
5/5
Students form Beijing Student Dialogue Delegation. Most students end class boycott.
5/13
300 students start a hunger strike at Tiananmen, with numbers eventually rising to about 3 thousand, plus
thousands more as spectators and supporters.
5/14
High-level state delegation meets student activists, chaotic discussion ensues because of student
divisions, students withdraw from the talks.
5/15
Mikhail Gorbachev arrives for a state visit; because of Tiananmen’s occupation, government holds its
official reception at the Beijing airport.
5/17
More than a million Beijing residents march in support of students and hunger strikers.
5/19
Government declares martial law, but residents and students block the troops. Students from outside
Beijing continue to arrive in the city.
6/3
Military repression begins, with hundreds of people killed by government troops.
6/4
Troops encircle remaining 4 thousand students at Tiananmen; students leave the square.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Source: adapted from Zhao 2001: xxv-xxvi
48
Major Chinese Peasant Protests, May-August 1997
May
Henan: in Yiyang and Changde prefectures, a total of about 200 thousand peasants
May
Hubei: an estimated 120 thousand peasants staged at least 70 demonstrations
May-June
Anhui: some 70 thousand peasants in 40 townships engage in 60 separate challenges
May-June
Jiangxi: peasants in 70 townships, totaling around 100 thousand, mounted a hundred
July-Aug
Hubei: across 75 townships, perhaps 200 thousand peasants demonstrated,
July-Aug
Jiangxi: on the order of 200 thousand peasants in 78 townships protested against
assemble in 80 locations, often demonstrating and submitting petitions, and
sometimes burning vehicles or attacking county governments, with 3 deaths and 54
reported injuries
opposing peasant exploitation and official expropriation; in Tianmen county, 3
thousand villagers attacked party-government buildings, with 90 injuries
to authorities, variously attacking official buildings, seizing guns and ammunition,
blocking a cargo train, seizing goods, and confronting the railroads’ security officers,
with 40 injuries and 11 deaths, including 5 police
challenges to authorities, occupying party and government buildings, attacking supply
and marketing cooperatives, looting fertilizer and cement; in Yifeng County, 800
people attacked the Public Security bureau; elsewhere crowds surrounded important
officials, whom the military rescued
petitioned, and protested against improper payments for crops, high-priced inputs,
and illegal taxes; authorities called 8 of the episodes “riots” or “rebellions”; in one
bloody fight, 40 peasants were killed or wounded
payment in IOUs, high-priced inputs, low prices for grain, and increased taxes;
participants variously attacked (or even burned) party-government buildings, for a
total of 200 peasants and 50 security officers wounded; in Yongfeng, security
officers fired on the crowd, causing 70 casualties
Source: Bernstein & Lü 2002: Table 5.1
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
49
Contentious Conversation
Subject – Verb – Object (of claims)
E.g. Union demands that the government __.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
50
Contrasting Principles of 18th and 19th Century
Repertoires in Western Europe
Eighteenth Century
Nineteenth Century
• Local object
• Abstract object
• Parochial
• Cosmopolitan
• Particular
• Modular
• Bifurcated
• Autonomous
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
51
Contrasting Principles of 18th and 19th Century Repertoires in Western Europe
Eighteenth Century
Nineteenth Century
Frequent employment of authorities’ normal
means of action, either as caricature or as a deliberate, if temporary, assumption of authorities’
prerogatives in the name of a local community
Use of relatively autonomous means of action,
of kinds rarely or never employed by authorities
Convergence on residences of wrongdoers and
sites of wrongdoing, as opposed to seats and
symbols of public power
Preference for previously planned action in visible public places
Extensive use of authorized public celebrations
and assemblies for presentation of grievances
and demands
Deliberate organization of assemblies for the
articulation of claims
Common appearance of participants as members or representatives of constituted corporate
groups and communities rather than of special
interests
Participation as members or representatives of
special interests, constituted public bodies, and
named associations
Tendency to act directly against local enemies
but to appeal to powerful patrons for redress of
wrongs beyond the reach of the local community
and, especially, for representation vis à vis outside authorities
Direct challenges to rivals or authorities, especially national authorities and their representatives
Repeated adoption of rich, irreverent symbolism
in the form of effigies, dumb show, and ritual
objects to state grievances and demands
Display of programs, slogans, and symbols of
common membership such as flags, colors, and
lettered banners
Shaping of action to particular circumstances
and localities
Preference for forms of action easily transferred
from one circumstance or locality to another
Summary:
parochial, particular, and bifurcated
Summary:
cosmopolitan, modular, and autonomous
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
52
Building a Social Movement
Campaigns
Campaign
Repertoires
Repertoire
WUNC
Displays
WUNC
Display
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
53
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
54
Sample Exam Questions:
1.
We have looked at “old” and “new” repertoires of contention in Western Europe. Name three characteristics
of claim-making performances in each repertoire and give two examples of performances that fit the
descriptions.
CHARACTERISTICS
OLD
NEW
1)
2)
3)
EXAMPLES
1)
2)
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
55
Sample Exam Questions
•
Circle one of these episodes: nationalist mobilization in the USSR 1987-1992, student claim making in
Beijing 1989, antislavery activism in 19th century US and Britain, American resistance to British rule
during the 1760s. In a sentence, describe one performance that participants employed in that episode.
•
In a sentence, say whether that performance comes closer to the “old” or “new” repertoire, and give one
reason for your answer.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
56
Waves of Democratization
Wednesday March 21st, 2007
Ernesto Castaneda
•
•
•
•
•
Waves of Democracy (Tilly vs. Huntington)
Democracy and Contention
Democracy and Social Movements
Switzerland
Mexico
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
57
Waves of Democracy (Huntington)
• First wave, long 1828-1926 (29)
• First reverse wave 1922-1942 (12)
• Second, short 1943-1962 (32)
• Second reverse wave 1958-1975 (30)
• Third wave 1974-1991 (60)
Huntington writes. "Economic development makes democracy possible;
political leadership makes it real." [Top down perspective]
Samuel P. Huntington. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the
Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
58
Waves of Democracy (Tilly)
•
•
•
•
•
1789-1800
1830-1848
After WWI
After WWII
1989-
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
59
What is the relationship between
democracy and social movements?
?
Democracy
Social mobilization
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
60
Democracy and Social Movements
Possible causal pathways
Background causes. Historical Context.
Social Movements
Democratization
De-democratization
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
61
A Chronology of Contentious Politics
in Switzerland, 1830-1848
A Chronology of Contentious Politics in Switzerland, 1830-1848
1830, 4 July
reformist constitution in Ticino
1830, July
revolution in France
1830, Fall
throughout Switzerland, except Neuchâtel (member of federation, but ruled by King of Prussia) and Basel: clubs, local public meetings,
pamphleteering, petitions, press campaigns, and marches to cantonal capitals on behalf of cantonal elections for constituent assemblies
by manhood suffrage
1830, Fall
elections of constituent assemblies
1831, Jan
Basel: armed uprising of country people against urban domination, put down by cantonal troops
1831, JanMarch
meetings of assemblies, enactments of new cantonal constitutions, generally asserting
popular sovereignty and declaring civil liberties but restricting suffrage significantly by property, education, gender, and age
1831, 13 Sep
Neuchâtel: after overlord king of Prussia grants moderate constitution, republicans attempt to seize power by force of arms, but Swiss
federal executive (fearing external intervention) sends troops to put them down
1831-1832
bitter political struggles between radicals and conservatives in Basel, ending in split of Basel into two half-cantons, central city vs. rural
areas; on 14 May 1832 the rural half-canton adopts a broadly democratic constitution
1832
Schwyz: communes of canton's dependent territories declare themselves an independent half-canton, only to receive military occupation
by Innerschwyz; federal authorities broker new constitution enfranchising outer territories
1832, July
appointment of commission to revise the federal constitution (strictly speaking, the Pact)
1833, March
after liberal cantons attempt to force revision of the federal pact of 1815 through the Diet, cantonal authorities of Schwyz send troops to
repress liberals and radicals in the neighborhood of Küssnacht, Outer Schwyz; Diet calls up 16,000 troops to advance on Küssnacht,
Schwyz troops withdraw; separation of Schwyz into two half cantons becomes definitive
1833, JulyAugust
Basel: rural uprising against city’s dominance; battle (3 August 1833) at Pratteln in which country people suffer five deaths and
Basel troops fifty four
1834, Jan
armed band including Mazzini raids Carouge (Savoy), sacks customs post, but is overwhelmed by Geneva police
1834
liberals from seven cantons meet to plan anticlerical program, then propose to create cantonal councils; liberal clergy stop movement, but
"unrest" in Aargau brings in troops from neighboring cantons
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
62
Switzerland 2
1836
Glarus: after new constitution abolishes separate Protestant and Catholic Landsgemeinden, Catholics try to hold their own separate
assembly, but federal occupation of communes Näfels and Oberurnen ends Catholic resistance
1838
half canton of Outer Schwyz: Landsgemeinde of Rothenthurm breaks up in brawl between supporters of Hooves (small peasant liberals)
and Horns (large peasant conservatives)
1839, Feb-Sep
Zürich: when by a bare majority the cantonal education council appoints to the university a liberal theologian (David Friedrich Strauss of
Tübingen), committees of protest form throughout the hinterland, localities send petitions; Zürich authorities pension off Strauss before he
begins teaching
1839
Valais: when liberals (mainly from Lower Valais) try to force a new constitution through the Diet of Sion, conservatives (mainly from Upper
Valais) withdraw and form their own separate government at Sierre
1839, 6 Sep
Zürich: 1,500 armed country people assemble and march to town singing hymns, scuffle with government troops, finally disperse
1840
Valais: troops from Upper and Lower Valais confront each other before settlement backed by federal Diet reunifies cantonal government
1841, January
Aargau: cantonal authorities decree suppression of convents, Catholics storm capital under arms and are repelled by government troops;
Swiss Diet brokers compromise reopening nunneries, but not houses of male orders
1841
Lucerne: newly-elected Legislative Assembly asks Jesuits to take over secondary education; widespread demands in Protestant cantons
for expulsion of Jesuits, formation of anti-Jesuit societies
1842, fall
free corps (Freischaren) of volunteers form, attempt military expeditions against Lucerne
1844, May
Valais: after cantonal government asks Lucerne authorities to intervene against adherents of Young Switzerland in Lower Valais,
inhabitants of region ambush emissary (Bernhard Meyer) on his way to deliver decree against them
1844
Basel: national shooting festival occasion for manifestations (speeches, cheers, etc.) by Catholics and (especially) radicals
1844, 8 Dec
Lucerne: a "few hundred" men in armed bands from Zürich and elsewhere head for city to overthrow government, but give up en route; in
the city, radical anti-Jesuit "riot" put down by government forces
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
63
Switzerland 3
1845, spring
musters of free corps in a number of rural locations
1845, March
skirmishes between free corps and government troops
1845,
31 March
canton of Lucerne: 3,600 radical volunteers (Freischärler) enter from Aargau under command of Bernese Ulrich Ochsenbein
(former member of Mazzini's Young Europe), march to capital, where government troops repel them, killing 105 (or 115) and jailing 1785;
Lucerne celebrates with a religious procession
1845, spring
Lucerne: petition campaign to save Jacob Steiger, military leader of March raid, from Lucerne's death penalty; when Steiger escapes
from his prison in Savoy, widespread radical celebrations, honorary citizenship for Steiger in Zürich and Bern
1845
Lausanne: mass march of country people to government building, demanding removal of conservative council; radical leader takes over
1845,
December
Catholic cantons (Lucerne, Uri, Schwyz, Unterwald, Zug, Fribourg, Valais) form mutual defense league (Sonderbund), approach
Austrian, Sardinian, and French governments for aid
1846, July
Bern adopts a new constitution strengthening state powers and broadening political participation, thus increasing power of radicals
1847
widespread mobilization of Catholics: pilgrimages to Saints' tombs, collective attendance at masses
1847, spring
Geneva: popular uprising (radical-led peasants, artisans, and factory workers); after arrest of leaders, street barricades against
conservative-liberal militia; radical-dominated provisional government comes to power, enacts more democratic constitution
1847, spring
radical coup d'état in Lausanne displaces conservative militia and government
1847, spring
elections favorable to radicals elsewhere
1847, spring
Fribourg: failed radical coup attempt
1847, July
Diet (by twelve votes to ten) demands dissolution of Sonderbund
1847, 10 Oct
Valais: voters approve canton’s adhesion to Sonderbund
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
64
Switzerland 4
1847, 4 Nov
Diet orders dissolution of Sonderbund by force of arms, mobilizes cantonal troops, begins military operations under General Dufour,
relatively moderate veteran of Bavarian and Dutch armies
1847, 14 Nov
Fribourg surrenders to Dufour
1847, 22 Nov
Zug capitulates without a fight; Dufour proceeds to Lucerne, where general exit of authorities begins
1847, 24 Nov
Dufour attacks Lucerne, which surrenders; Sonderbund collapses after minor skirmishes elsewhere (e.g. Schwyz, 26 November)
1847, 29 Nov
end of hostilities; within next few days, federal troops occupy all Sonderbund cantons, including Valais
1847, 7 Dec
Diet refuses French offer of mediation, rejects all intervention in settlement by external powers
1848
new Swiss constitution approved by referendum establishes federal government (bicameral assembly, Federal Council, Federal
Tribunal), divides sovereignty between federal government and cantons, establishes federal citizenship including rights of mobility and
settlement throughout the state
1848, Feb
on news of February revolution in Paris, democratic force invades Neuchâtel (Neuenburg) from Chaux de Fonds, establishes republican
regime on 2 March
1848, April
referendum in Neuchâtel endorses republican constitution 5800 to 4400; rejected by Prussian king
1848, April
canton of Basel: when Johann Ludwig Becker starts recruiting a German Legion to support revolutionaries in Baden, federal government
sends troops to seal borders with Baden and Alsace
1848
as German revolutions begin in March, German workers in Switzerland meet and organize in support, eventually forming military forces
to support revolutionary activity in various German territories
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
65
Fluctuations in Swiss National Regimes, 1790-1848
Zone of
Authoritarian
Citizenship
Zone of
Authoritarianism
1
GovernMental
Capacity
Zone of
Citizenship
1848
1798
1830
1815
1847
1790
0
0
1
Protected Consultation
Zone of
Fragmented Tyranny
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
66
Mexican Democratization
minimal timeline
1876-1911
Porfirio Diaz’s Dictatorship
1910-1920
Mexican Revolution
1917
Federal Constitution
1929
PNR (PRI) is founded
1934-1940
Lázaro Cardenas (land reform, oil expropriation and party consolidation)
1968
Tlatelolco Massacre / Olympic Games
1982
Peso crash
1983-present
Neo-liberal reform
1985
Earthquake, millions die in Mexico City
1988
Competitive but unfair election between Carlos Salinas and Cuauhtémoc Cardenas
1989
PAN wins Baja California’s governorship
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
67
Mexican Democratization 2
January 1st, 1994
NAFTA takes effect. EZLN rebellion in Chiapas begins.
1994
Luis Donaldo Colosio is assassinated as well as Ruiz Massieu.
December 1994
Ernesto Zedillo becomes president.
Pesos crashes again economic crisis.
July 1997
Cuauhtémoc Cardenas is elected the First Mayor of Mexico City.
July 2000
Vicente Fox of the PAN is elected
2000-2005
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the PRD becomes mayor of Mexico City
Summer 2006
Revolts in Oaxaca.
July 2006
Election between AMLO and Felipe Calderon (PAN). Election results are contested but IFE gives
victory to Calderon.
2006
AMLO does not recognize the election results and carries out a series of contentious events.
68
Class Goal
To correctly match
Episodes ↔ Concepts ↔ Analytic Devices
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
69
Concept:
Standing Claims
• Standing claims, say that the actor or group belongs and represents an
established certified category within the regime and therefore deserves
the rights and respect that members of that category should receive
(see Tilly and Tarrow 2005:82).
• E.g. EZLN posing as representatives of Chiapas indigenous people
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
70
Contention Events in Venezuela
Monday April 2nd, 2007
Ernesto Castañeda
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
71
1947-48
President Romulo Gallegos, Venezuela's first democratically elected leader, overthrown
within 18 months in military coup led by Marcos Perez Jimenez, who forms government
with backing from the armed forces and the US.
1958
Admiral Wolfgang Larrazabal ousts Marcos Perez Jimenez; leftist Romulo Betancourt
of the Democratic Action Party (AD) wins democratic presidential election (1959-1964).
1964
Venezuela's first presidential handover from one civilian to another. Dr Raul Leoni (AD)
is elected president.
1973
Venezuela benefits from global oil boom. Oil and steel industries nationalized.
1982-84
In 1982 On the so-called Black Friday the Venezuelan currency suffers an important
devaluation. Fall in world oil prices generates unrest and cuts in welfare spending. Dr
Jaime Lusinchi (AD) elected president signs pact involving government, trade unions
and business.
1989
Carlos Andrés Pérez (AD) elected president against a background of economic
depression. President imposes austerity measures and takes an IMF loan. Social and
political upheaval includes riots. Violent riots erupt in the streets of Caracas, "El
Caracazo“, at least 300 people die. Martial law and a general strike follow.
1992
Some 120 people are killed in two attempted coups, the first led by junior military officer
Colonel Hugo Chavez, and the second carried out by his supporters. Chavez is jailed
for two years before being pardoned.
1993-1996
President Carlos Andrés Pérez impeached on corruption charges.
Ramon Jose Velasquez becomes interim president. Rafael Caldera elected president.
Carlos Andres Perez is later convicted and imprison for corruption.
December 1998
A military engineer and the son of schoolteachers, Hugo Chavez Frias is elected the
38th president of Venezuela with 59 percent of the vote. His political party, the
& Castañeda
2007) three decades of democratic rule by two
72
Movement of the Fifth(Tilly
Republic
(MVR), ended
parties, Democratic Action (AD) and the Social Christian Party of Venezuela (COPEI).
Venezuela 2
August 1999
131 elected officials of the National Constituent Assembly convene to draft a new
Constitution. Ratified with 70 percent approval among voters, the 1999 constitution
defines Venezuela's current system.
Among other things the new Constitution calls for the construction of neighborhood
groups to promote the "Bolivarian Revolution" with estimates of more than 70,000.
1999
Chavez prohibits U.S. aircrafts from flying over Venezuela to patrol drug trade in
neighboring Colombia.
2000
Foreign Minister Jose Vicente Rangel discloses plot to kill Chavez.
Chavez wins another six years in office and a mandate to pursue political reforms.
2001
First head of state to visit Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War.
November 2001
President Chavez appears on TV to hail 49 decrees, including land and oil industry
reforms. With this Chavez ends many traces of neo-liberal policies. The opposition starts
to get radicalized and tries to bring Chavez down by any means.
February 2002
Government scraps exchange rate controls. National currency, the Bolivar, plummets
25% against the US dollar.
February 25, 2002
Chavez appoints new board of directors to state oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela
(PDVSA) in move opposed by executives of the state company.
April 9, 2002
Trade unions and the Fedecamaras business association declare general strike to
support Petroleos de Venezuela dissidents (supported with $US877,000 by US
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
government NYT April 26 2002)
73
Venezuela 3
April 11 2002
Some 150,000 people rally in support of strike and oil protest. National Guard and proChavez gunmen clash with protesters - more than 10 are killed and 110 injured. Military
high command rebels and demands that Chavez resign.
April 12 2002
Armed forces head announces Chavez has resigned, a claim later denied by Chavez.
Chavez is taken into military custody in a Island in the Caribbean. CIA airplane
involved.
Military names Pedro Carmona, one of the strike organizers, as head of transitional
government.
The coup arises from a national strike called by Fedecámaras, La Confederación de
Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV) and the so-called Coordinadora Democrática.
April 14 2002
Chavez returns to office after the collapse of the interim government.
December 2002
Opposition strike cripples the oil industry. Organizers demand that Chavez resign. The
nine-week stoppage leads to fuel shortages.
May 2003- 2004
Opposition delivers petition with more than three million signatures demanding
referendum on Chavez's rule. Government and opposition sign deal brokered by
Organization of American States (OAS) which sets out framework for referendum on
Hugo Chavez's rule. Referendum on August 2003. Carter and other international
observers validate Chavez popular victory in the referendum.
March 2004
The opposition calls for a general strike. During the recent general strike, independent
media stations broadcast an estimated 700 pro-strike (and anti-Chavez) advertisements
a day, according to government reports. During the same two-month period, President
Chavez used 40 hours of airtime, in addition to his weekly television and radio program
Hello President.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
74
Clashes between opponents and supporters of President Chavez, several people are
killed and many are injured.
Venezuela 4
January 2005
President Chavez signs decree on land reform which aims to eliminate Venezuela's
large estates. President says land redistribution will bring justice to rural poor; ranchers
say move is an attack on private property.
December 2005
Parties loyal to President Chavez make big gains in parliamentary elections. Opposition
parties boycott the poll, leaving parliament entirely made up of supporters of the
president.
December 2006
Hugo Chavez wins a third term in presidential elections with 63% of the vote.
January 2007
Chavez announces that key energy and telecommunications companies will be
nationalized.
National Assembly grants President Chavez sweeping powers to rule by decree for the
next eighteen months (this is stipulated in the present and previous constitution and has
been granted to many previous presidents).
Chavez announces the formation of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela which
aims to unite all the forces from the left under his command including groups that have
called for “Chavismo without Chavez.”
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
75
Figure 3.4: Freedom House Ratings for Venezuela, 1972-2000
7
1989
1976
1996 1972
2000
Political
Rights
4
1992
1999
1
1
4
7
Civil Liberties
Note: We have inverted the actual Freedom House ratings, which run from 1 (high) to 7
(low).
Source: Freedom House 2000.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Taken From: Tilly and Tarrow (2007:65)
76
Analytic Devises
I.
Forms of struggle change in time and in relation to the POS
and regime type.
II. We observe a rise in the intensity of claim making along with
changes in the regime and other contentious events. The
waves observable in Venezuela 1983-1999 are comparable to
Beissinger USSR 1987-1992, and Tarrow’s Italy 1966-1973.
Take home point:
• Venezuelan forms of collective claim making change with the
struggles over the character of the regime. So as regime
transition occur, with Chavez in 1999, there is a peaking on the
number and intensity of struggles because both losers and
winners are stepping up their claims.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
77
Contention in Venezuela
Lopez Maya et al. (2002)
Figure 3.1: Protest Events in Venezuela, 1983-1999
400
Cumulative Number of Events
350
300
250
Violent
Confrontational
Conventional
200
150
100
50
0
1983
1988
1993
1998
Year
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
78
Sources
Event catalogue compiled by Ernesto Castañeda from:
• López Maya, Margarita cited in Charles Tilly and Sidney
Tarrow. 2005.“Contentious Politics.” Boulder: CO. Paradigm
Press. And Chapter III in Tilly and Tarrow 2005.
• López Maya, Margarita Venezuela en la encrucijada
• http://www.aporrea.org/actualidad/a1670.html
• PBS online
http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/venezuela/facts.ht
ml
• BBC Online
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/country_profiles/122934
8.stm
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
79
Tilly (2007)
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
80
Tilly’s Definition of Regime
• Regime, set of relations between states and
citizens, and major political actors, including
groups such as parties, corporations, labor
unions, organized ethnic groups, patronclient networks, warlords, etc. (adapted from
Tilly 2007:12).
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
81
The Simple Regime Model
Challenger
Regime
Member
Outside
Actor
Government
Regime
Limits of
Government’s
Jurisdiction
Outside of Regime
Coalitions
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
82
Regimes and Democracy
(make up for March 19th lecture)
Capacity and Consultation
• State capacity and its relation with state-society
consultation; institutionalized relations among
governments and political actors, especially at
state level.
• Governmental capacity: extent of control by state
agents over people, activities, and resources within
the government's claimed jurisdiction; e.g. compare
China with Rwanda.
• Extent of protected consultation: collective
control by subjects over governmental personnel,
resources, and action; at high end, democracy.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
83
Democratization and De-Democratization
(make up for lecture on March 26th)
Democratization occurs when a regime moves toward these
conditions:
• regular and categorical, rather than intermittent and
individualized, relations between the government and its
subjects: citizenship
• those relations include most or all subjects: breadth
• those relations are equal across subjects and categories of
subjects: equality
• governmental personnel, resources, and performances change
in response to binding collective consultation of subjects:
binding consultation
• subjects, especially members of minorities, receive protection
from arbitrary action by governmental agents: protection
Moves away from these conditions qualify as de- democratization
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
84
These processes generally promote democratization:
• increases in the sheer number of people available for
participation in public politics and/or in connections among
those people
• equalization of resources and connections among those
people
• insulation of public politics from existing social inequalities
• integration of interpersonal trust networks into public politics
• reversals of these processes promote de-democratization
Major forms of struggle that have often activated these
processes:
•
•
•
•
revolution
conquest
confrontation
colonization and de-colonization
85
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Freedom House Checklist for Political
Rights and Civil Liberties
Political Rights
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Is the head of state and/or head of government or other chief authority elected through
free and fair elections?
Are the legislative representatives elected through free and fair elections?
Are there fair electoral laws, equal campaigning opportunities, fair polling, and honest
tabulations of ballots?
Are the voters able to endow their freely elected representatives with real power?
Do the people have the right to organize in different political parties or other competitive
political groupings of their choice, and is the system open to the rise and fall of these
competing parties or groupings?
Is there a significant opposition vote, de facto opposition power, and a realistic possibility
for the opposition to increase its support or gain power through elections?
Are the people free from domination by the military, foreign powers, totalitarian parties,
religious hierarchies, economic oligarchies, or any other powerful group?
Do cultural, ethnic, religious, and other minority groups have reasonable selfdetermination, self-government, autonomy, or participation through informal consensus in
the decision-making process?
(Discretionary) For traditional monarchies that have no parties or electoral process, does
the system provide for consultation with the people, encourage discussion of policy, and
allow the right to petition the ruler?
(Discretionary) Is the government or occupying power deliberately changing the ethnic
composition of a country or territory so as to destroy a culture or tip the political balance in
favor of another group?
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
86
Freedom House Checklist for Political
Rights and Civil Liberties
Civil Liberties
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Is there freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion?
Is there freedom of political or quasi-political organization, including political parties, civic organizations, ad
hoc issue groups, etc.?
Are there free trade unions and peasant organizations or equivalents, and is there effective collective
bargaining? Are there free professional and other private organizations?
Is there an independent judiciary?
Does the rule of law prevail in civil and criminal matters? Is the population treated equally under the law?
Are police under direct civilian control?
Is there protection from political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile, or torture, whether by groups that
support or oppose the system? Is there freedom from war and insurgencies?
Is there freedom from extreme government indifference and corruption?
Is there open and free private discussion?
Is there personal autonomy? Does the state control travel, choice of residence, or choice of employment?
Is there freedom from indoctrination and excessive dependency on the state?
Are property rights secure? Do citizens have the right to establish private businesses? Is private business
activity unduly influenced by government officials, the security forces, or organized crime?
Are there personal social freedoms, including gender equality, choice of marriage partners, and size of
family?
Is there equality of opportunity, including freedom from exploitation by or dependency on landlords,
employers, union leaders, bureaucrats, or other types of obstacles to a share of legitimate economic
gains?
Adapted by Tilly from Karatnycky 2000: 584-585.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
87
Democracy Today and Tomorrow
(make up for March 28th)
Measuring Democratization
•
Freedom House monitoring defines “democracy” as civilian government
competitively elected by general adult suffrage, with parties having significant
public access to voters [weak criterion].
•
Freedom House also makes more refined ratings of political rights and civil
liberties, based on with scores from 1 (high) to 7 (low) on each item.
“Free” means that ratings for political rights and civil liberties averaged 3 or less;
“Not Free” meant average greater than 5.5.
•
By that standard
1900: 0 of 55 independent national regimes;
1950: 22 of 80;
2003: 117 of 192;
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
88
Freedom House Ratings of European Countries on
Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 2001
1,3: Bulgaria,
Greece
1
2
2,4: Moldova
3
3,4: Albania
1,2: Belgium, Czech Rep.,
Estonia, France, Germany,
Hungary, Italy, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland,
Slovakia, Slovenia,
Spain, United Kingdom
Political
Rights
4
4,5: Turkey
4,4: Macedonia,
Ukraine
1,1: Andorra, Austria,
Greek Cyprus, Denmark,
Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Liechtenstein, Luxembourg,
Malta, Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, San
Marino, Sweden,
Switzerland
2,2: Croatia,
Romania
2,1: Monaco
3,3: Yugoslavia
NO BINDING, GENERAL,
COMPETITIVE
ELECTIONS =
UNDEMOCRATIC
5
5,5: Russia
6
5,4: BosniaHerzegovina
6,6: Belarus
7
7
6
5
4
3
(Tilly & Castañeda
2007)
Civil Liberties
2
1
89
Source: Compiled from Freedom House 2000
Trajectories of Four Post-Socialist Regimes, 1991-2001
1
2
Estonia
Croatia
3
Political
Rights4
Russia
5
Belarus
6
7
7
6
5
4
3
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Civil Liberties
2
1
90
Freedom House Ratings for All Countries by Total Population, 1981-2002
7000
6000
5000
Not Free
4000
Partly Free
M i l l i ons of P e opl e
Free
3000
2000
1000
0
1981
1985
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
91
• note low point of 1994, with some recovery since then (India back in free as of 1999), with about half the world’s “unfree” population in China
by these measures and 41 percent of world population lives in free countries.
Violent Specialists
Intra & Interstate Wars
Castaneda April 4th, 2007
• Official specialists in coercion: police, military, guards, etc.
• Institutionalized coercive systems: paramilitaries, guerrillas,
posses, vigilantes, drug lords, mercenaries, organized
crime, mafiosi, etc.
• Non-institutionalized violence: street robbers, sporadic
crime, personal vendettas, etc.
• There is a continuum from state agents to thugs (legitimacy
determined by third party support for coercive action from
these groups).
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
92
Mafias and Mercenaries
• Mafiosi are “first and foremost entrepreneurs in one
particular commodity—protection . . .” (see Diego
Gambetta 1993).
• Mafiosi are sellers of protection; hence privatizers
of public goods. When, then, should we expect
mafias to proliferate? We observe a near
disappearance of Sicilian mafia under fascism, and
reappearance with liberation. Revival in the U.S.
meant a later revival in Italy.
• Likewise, mercenaries sell protection but at a
larger scale.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
93
Space, States, and Specialists in Violence
High
S
P
E
C
I
F
I
C
I
T
Y
POLICE
REGULAR ARMY
G
A
N
G
S
MERCENARIES
OF
T
E
R
R
I
T
O
R
Y
MAFIA,
THUGS,
ETC.
Low
Local
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
Area
National
94
History of Western Wars
From
Militias
Feudal levies
Mercenaries
Pirates
Bandits
To
Rise of consolidated states
Concentrated coercion
Rise of interstate violence
Militarization of deaths
National armies
Mass conscription
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
95
Further resources:
Tilly, Charles. War Making and State Making as
Organized Crime in Bringing the State Back In
edited by Peter Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer,
and Theda Skocpol. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 1985 pp. 169–191.
Barkey, Karen. 1994. Bandits and Bureaucrats: The
Ottoman Route to State Centralization. Cornell
University Press.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
96
Source: Mary Kaldor. 2006 [1991]. New Wars Old Wars. Blackwell. Figure 2.1
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
97
World death rate for large-scale war
Time
18th century
Rough amount of
deaths per million of
population.
90/million
19th century
150/million
20th century
430/million
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
98
Increases in civilian deaths
Time
Percent of civilian
casualties
World War I
5 percent
World War II
50 percent
Wars of the 1990s
90 percent
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
99
Number of Civil Wars per Year, 1960-1999
30
25
20
15
10
5
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
99
19
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
19
84
19
81
19
78
19
75
19
72
19
69
19
66
19
63
19
19
60
0
100
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
101
Source: Mary Kaldor. 2006 [1991]. New Wars Old Wars. Figure 5.1
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
102
New and Old Wars
Logistical/organizational differences
• “old wars”: vertically organized, territorially
contiguous governments with built-in military
support systems, taxation, conscription.
• “new wars”: relative weakening of states,
cross-cutting organizations, international
networks, segmentary recruitment, related to
flows of precious commodities, including oil,
diamonds, and human labor.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
103
Tilly’s Conclusions
1)
During the monopolization of force by great states that occurred in the
West from the 17th to 20th centuries domestic violence decreased
dramatically, independent military forces lost ground enormously, but
states engaged in increasingly destructive international warfare,
2) During the 20th century however, civilians increasingly became victims
through bombing and other changes in military tactics,
3) After World War II warfare shifted for a while to anti-colonial struggles, but
interstate wars then declined remarkably in overall frequency and intensity
–despite Afghanistan and Iraq!
4) Within newly independent states, military internal struggles for control -civil wars -- multiplied into the 1990s,
5) Once most such struggles got settled in post-socialist states, civil wars
began to decline in frequency, although they didn't disappear as Congo,
Sri Lanka, and Colombia indicate, by U.S. official figures terror attacks
generally declined along with civil wars, despite 9/11. [It certainly doesn't
seem like it from the news, which necessarily emphasizes violent conflict,
but on the whole intrastate and interstate violence are declining. That is
partly a result of the slow, partial advance of semi-democratic regimes].
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
104
Terror and Politics
April 9th, 2007
What is terror?
• Asymmetrical use of violence and threats of
violence against political enemies.
Terror as strategy:
• Signals that the target is vulnerable, that the
perpetrators exist, that the perpetrators have the
capacity to strike again.
• Signals typically reach three different audiences:
the targets themselves, potential allies of the
perpetrators, and third parties that might cooperate
with one or the other.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
105
Terrorism as a political tool
• a recurrent strategy of intimidation occurs widely in
contentious politics, and corresponds
approximately to what many people mean by terror
• a wide variety of individuals, groups, and networks
sometimes employ that strategy.
• the strategy relates systematically to other forms of
political struggle proceeding in the same settings
and populations
• specialists in coercion ranging from government
employees to bandits sometimes deploy terror
under certain political circumstances, usually with
far more devastating effects than the terror
operations of non-specialists
• examples: Basque country, Rwanda, anti-abortion
activism in the U.S.(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
106
Typology of Terror-Wielding
Groups and Networks
Specialists
MILITIAS
CONSPIRATORS
Degree of
Specialization
ORDINARY MILITANTS
in Coercion
Non-specialists AUTONOMISTS
Home Territory
ZEALOTS
Outside Home Territory
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
107
Definitions of Terrorism Used in
State Department Reports
•
•
•
•
•
•
No one definition of terrorism has gained universal acceptance. For the purposes
of this report, however, we* have chosen the definition of terrorism contained in
Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656(d). That statute contains the
following definitions:
The term terrorism means premeditated, politically motivated violence
perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine
agents, usually intended to influence an audience.
The term international terrorism means terrorism involving citizens of the territory
of more than one country.
The term terrorist group means any group practicing, or that has significant
subgroups that practice, international terrorism.
The US Government has employed this definition of terrorism for statistical and
analytical purposes since 1983.
Domestic terrorism is probably a more widespread phenomenon than
international terrorism. Because international terrorism has a direct impact on US
interests, it is the primary focus of this report. However, the report also describes,
but does not provide statistics on, significant developments in domestic terrorism
(State 2004: xii).
* i.e. State Department reporters
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
108
Significant Terrorist Incidents, January 2003,
According to U.S. State Department
Date
Incident
•
1/5 India: In Kulgam, Kashmir, a hand grenade exploded at a bus station injuring 40
persons: 36 private citizens and four security personnel, according to press reports. No
one claimed responsibility.
•
1/5 Pakistan: In Peshawar, armed terrorists fired on the residence of an Afghan
diplomat, injuring a guard, according to press reports. The diplomat was not in his
residence at the time of the incident. No one claimed responsibility.
•
1/5 Israel: In Tel Aviv, two suicide bombers attacked simultaneously, killing 23 persons
including: 15 Israelis, two Romanians, one Ghanaian, one Bulgarian, three Chinese, and
one Ukrainian and wounding 107 others – nationalities not specified – according to press
reports. The attack took place in the vicinity of the old central bus station where foreign
national workers live. The detonations took place within seconds of each other and were
approximately 600 feet apart, in a pedestrian mall and in front of a bus stop. The al-Aqsa
Martyrs Brigade was responsible.
•
1/12 Pakistan: In Hyderabad, authorities safely defused a bomb placed in a toilet of a
Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurant, according to press reports. Two bomb explosions in
Hyderabad in recent months have killed a total of four persons and injured 33 others, all
Pakistanis. No one has claimed responsibility.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
109
Significant Terrorist Incidents 2
•
1/21 Kuwait: In Kuwait City, a gunman ambushed a vehicle at the intersection of alJudayliyat and Adu Dhabi, killing one US citizen and wounding another US citizen. The
victims were civilian contractors working for the US military. The incident took place close to
Camp Doha, an installation housing approximately 17,000 US troops. On 23-24 January, a
20-year-old Kuwaiti civil servant, Sami al-Mutayri, was apprehended attempting to cross the
border from Kuwait to Saudi Arabia. Al-Mutayri confessed to the attack and stated that he
embraces al-Qaida ideology and implements Usama Bin Ladin’s instructions although there
is no evidence of an organizational link. The assailant acted alone but had assistance in
planning the ambush. No group has claimed responsibility.
•
1/22 Colombia: In Arauquita, military officials reported either the National Liberation Army
(ELN) or the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) terrorists bombed a section
of the Cano Limon-Covenas oil pipeline, causing an unknown amount of damage. The
pipeline is owned by US and Colombian oil companies.
•
1/24 Colombia: In Tame, rebels kidnapped two journalists working for the Los Angeles
Times. One was a British reporter and the other a US photographer. The ELN is
responsible. The two journalists were released unharmed on 1 February 2003.
•
1/27 Afghanistan: In Nangarhar, two security officers escorting several United Nations
vehicles were killed when armed terrorists attacked their convoy, according to press reports.
No one claimed responsibility.
•
1/31 India: In Srinigar, Kashmir, armed terrorists killed a local journalist when they entered
his office, according to press reports. No one claimed responsibility.
•
Source: State 2004: 95-96.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
110
Connection Between Large Inequalities
and Social Unrest
India's Naxalites
“Other terrorists attack the Indian state at its strong points—its
secularism, its inclusiveness, its democracy. Naxalism attacks where it
is weakest: in delivering basic government services to those who need
them most. The Naxalites do not threaten the government in Delhi, but
they do have the power to deter investment and development in some
of India's poorest regions, which also happen to be among the richest in
some vital resources—notably iron and coal. So their movement itself
has the effect of sharpening inequity, which many see as the biggest
danger facing India in the next few years, and which is the Naxalites'
recruiting sergeant.”
The Economist August 17th, 2006.
cited in Neha Nimmagudda’s student memo
http://economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7799247
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
111
Considerations
•
Terrorism paradox, when there is relative peace, terrorism
becomes very visible in the medias, it appears as big
concern for governments, and is therefore more effective
in causing terror among the civilian population.
•
In high and medium capacity states terrorist and security
threats can provide grounds for growing authoritarianism
to appear.
•
In low capacity democratizing states, terrorism and
organized crime pose a great threat to democratization
and to a consolidation of state capacity.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
112
References
Goodin, Robert E. and Charles Tilly. 2006. The Oxford handbook of contextual political analysis. Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
McAdam, Doug, Sidney G. Tarrow, and Charles Tilly. 2001. Dynamics of contention. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Tilly, Charles. 1998. Durable inequality. Berkeley: University of California Press.
—. 2002. Stories, identities, and political change. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
—. 2003. Contention and democracy in Europe, 1650-2000. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
—. 2003. The politics of collective violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
—. 2004. Social movements, 1768-2004. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers.
—. 2005. Identities, boundaries, and social ties. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers.
—. 2005. Popular contention in Great Britain, 1758-1834. Boulder ,CO: Paradigm Publishers.
—. 2005. Trust and rule. New York: Cambridge University Press.
—. 2006. Regimes and repertoires. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
—. 2006. Why? Princeton: Princeton University Press.
—. 2007. Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
—. 2008. Contentious performances. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
—. 2008. Credit and blame. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
—. 2008. Explaining social processes. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers.
Tilly, Charles and Sidney Tarrow. 2007. Contentious politics. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Publishers.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
113
More on Professor Charles “Chuck” Tilly
Books
http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/courses/tillybooks.shtml
Bio
http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/courses/tillybio.shtml
Conference in Honor of Tilly
http://www.ssrc.org/hirschman/event/2008/agenda
Castañeda on Tilly
http://ernestoetc.blogspot.com/search/label/Charles%20Tilly
More material at Davenport’s in Memoriam
http://www.cdavenport.com/
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
114
Move to file number 2 for the rest
of the course material.
(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)
115