Transcript Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options in India

Biomass, Environment and Health:
A Macro Assessment
P.R. Shukla
Structure of the Presentation
1. Biomass Energy Use
2. Biomass Energy and Environment
3. Local / Global Environment and Health
4. Biomass Electricity and Climate Change
Mitigation
5. Ancillary Benefits from mitigation of Local
Emissions and Climate Change
Global Biomass Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption
Per Capita
Energy Consumption
Peta joules
1993
% change
since 1973
Mega Joules
1993
% change
since 1973
Africa
4 815
76
6 991
0
Europe
552
-14
761
-21
North / Central
America
1 825
106
4 130
53
South America
2 748
26
8 888
-17
Asia
9 009
47
2 690
1
185
16
6 693
-14
19 926
47
3 594
4
Oceania
World
Source: WRI (1996)
Biomass Energy in Asian Countries
Country
Energy Consumption
Per Capita
Energy Consumption
Per Capita
% change
1993
since 1973
2 401
-20
Petajoules
1993
277
% change
since 1973
27
Bhutan
12
79
7 345
21
Cambodia
54
21
5 560
-11
China
2 018
54
1 687
15
India
2 824
58
3 132
4
Indonesia
1 465
54
7 642
4
Lao PDR
39
35
8 366
-15
Malaysia
90
61
4 686
-3
Bangladesh
Biomass Energy in Asian Countries (cont…)
Country
Energy Consumption
Per Capita
Energy Consumption
Petajoules
1993
% change
since 1973
Per Capita
1993
% change
since 1973
Mongolia
13
0
5 689
-41
Myanmar
193
48
4 324
-4
Nepal
206
88
9 882
12
Pakistan
296
101
2 228
8
Philippines
382
44
5 892
-9
Sri Lanka
89
45
4 996
6
Thailand
526
75
9 141
19
Viet Nam
251
54
3 516
-1
Other
274
-
-
-
Total
9 009
47
2 690
1
Source: WRI, 1996
Biomass Energy and
Carbon Emissions
Global GHG Emissions
BTC
 Fossil
Fuels (1990)
 1850 to 1986 Total
 Fossil Fuel
 Deforestation + Land-use Change
 1980’s
6
195
117
(annual)
 Fossil Fuel
 Deforestation + Land-use Change
5.4
1.6
Forests and Carbon
 Forests
cover 3.4 billion hectares of land or
25% of Earth’s surface
 Forests store 340 BTC in Vegetation and 620
BTC in Soil
 Elimination of deforestation can reduce
release of 1.2 BTC of carbon flux each year
 100 BTC carbon can be sequestered over the
century by foresting upto a billion hectares
Biomass and Carbon
 Unsustainable
fuelBiomass use contributes 0.5
BTC each year
 Biomass burning emit 22 million tons of
methane and 0.2 million tons of NOx
 Biomass products annually sequester 1 BTC
 Biomass products hold 25 BTC. This amount
can be doubled if Biomass substitute other
materials
 Biomass/ Energy crops can mitigate 1- 4 BTC
by the mid-century by substituting fossil fuels
Sequestration Potential of Global C (1995-2050)
Measure
C sequestered
Cost
Total Cost
(BTC)
($/tC)
($ Billion)
Forestation
30.6
6-8
174
Agro-forestry
0.7
5
3
Regeneration 11.5 - 28.7
2
30 - 60
Slowing
10.8 - 20.8
2
44 - 97
60 - 87
3.7 - 4.6
280 - 340
deforestation
Total
Biomass Production under
Changing Climate
Higher Productivity from:
 CO2 Fertilization
 Higher Precipitation
Lower Productivity from:
 Pest, Disease, Fire
 Species Migration
 Change in Soil Nutrients
Biomass for Energy
 Availability
of Land
 Competition
with other
biomass substitutes
 Conversion
Technologies
 Synfuels
 Energy Conversion
Energy Yield (GJ/Hectares/Year)
300
0
600
Biomass from
Commercial
Forests,
USA
900
Maize, USA
(Grain+
Stover)
1200
1500
Maximum Stand yield (1986-91)
Average Commercial yield on
80 000 Hectares (1986-91)
Average for Years 2-6 for
Experimental Plot, Alabama
Average of Five Experimental Plots, Teaxs (1993-94)
Hectars
000Hectars
on1010000
Zambiaon
forZambia
Yieldfor
Average
AverageYield
Global Average Yield (1987)
Record yield (1994),
Iowa Corn-Grower's Contest
Average Yield (1985-87)
High Estimate
Low Estimate
Biomass Yield From Various Activities
Sugarcane
Alamo
Eucalyptus
(Total
Swichgrass , at Aracruz
Above ground USA
Brazil
Biomass)
Biomass Energy and
Climate Change Mitigation
Biomass Energy Options
Synthetic
fuels (Synfuels)
 Liquids (to replace refined oil products)
 Solids like Charcoal (to replace coal)
Biomass
Electricity Technologies
 Gasifier Engine
 Direct Combustion
Electricity Generation Cost
10
Fuel Cost
O&M Cost
Capital Cost
cents / kwh
8
6
4
2
0
100 KW Biomass
1 MW Biomass
50 MW Biomass
Technology
500 MW Coal
Cost of Delivered Electricity Cost
10
Fuel Cost
O&M Cost
T&D Cost
Capital Cost
cents / kwh
8
6
4
2
0
100 KW Biomass 1 MW Biomass
50 MW Biomass
Technology
500 MW Coal
Costs of Biomass and Coal power
Generation Cost (cents / kwh)
12
50 MW Biomass plant
100 KW Biomass plant
10
1 MW Biomass plant
Coal Plant
8
6
4
2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Price of Biomass ($ / GJ)
3
3.5
4
Cost of Biomass and Coal Power
(with environmental taxes)
Generation Cost (Cents / kwh)
8
7
6
5
4
3
50 MW Biomass plant
Coal Plant
Coal plant ($ 1/GJ Tax)
Coal plant ($ 2/GJ Tax)
2
1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Biomass Price ($ / GJ)
3
3.5
4
Biomass Electricity under Carbon
Emissions Limitations
40
35
BAU
10% Emissions Reduction
20%Emissions Reduction
Giga Watts
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
2020
2025
2030
2035
Institutional Issues for Biomass Power
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
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


Market Failure
Weak Market Linkages
Biomass Energy Feedstock System
Financing the Biomass Growers
Risk Coverage
Decentralized Power Generation
Role of the Government
Biomass Power: Implementation Issues



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


Ownership
Decentralization
Technology Choices
Management of Finances
Identification of Niche Market
Participatory Approach
Monitoring and Control
Dissemination Approach
Climate Change
and Health
Health Impacts of Climate Change
Direct Health Impacts from:
 Exposure to Thermal Extremes
 Altered Frequency of Extreme Events
 Enhanced Weather Variability
Indirect Health Impacts from Changes in:
 Vector Borne Diseases
 Incidence of Diarrhea, infectious diseases
 Sea Level Rise: Water Contamination and
dislocation disorders
 Mal-nutrition from changes in food supplies
Linkages of Climate and Malaria
Climate System
temperature
precipitation
1
Malaria System
Mosquito System
Human System
susceptibles
5
immunes
deaths
1
2
3
4
7
Mosquito
longevity
infected
Frequency of
biting of human
6
Mosquito
density
diseased
Parasite
development
Climate Change 2 Malaria transmission Potential 3 Infection
4 Development of immunity
5 Loss of immunity
6
7
Morbidity
Mortality
Major Tropical Vector Borne Diseases
Disease
Population at
Risk (Million)
Impact of
Climate Change
Malaria
2400
Highly Likely
Schistosomiasis
600
Very Likely
Filarisis
1094
Likely
Dengue
1800
Very Likely
Yellow Fever
450
Very Likely
River Blindness
123
Very Likley
Guinea Worm
100
Unknown
Biomass Energy:
Ancillary (Health)
Benefits of Climate
Change Mitigation
Ancillary Benefits of Biomass Power
1 MW Biomass vs. Coal Power
Local Pollution (ton/year)
70
60
Coal Power
Biomass Power
50
Emissions (ton)
Carbon Emission
Mitigation/ year
1376 Ton
66.36
40
31.48
30
19.45
20
13.1
10
6.15
2.29
0
S02
NOX
Particulate
Health Effects of Air Pollutants
Pollutan
t
Sulfur
Dioxide
WHO Guidelines
Effects
Annual Mean 98
Percentile
(Micrograms/cum of air)
40-60
100-150
Exacerbations of respiratory
illness (short-term Exposure),
Increased respiratory symptoms
like chronic bronchitis from longterm
Sameexposures.
as for sulfur dioxide
40-60
60-90
100-150
150-230
Combined Exposure to SO2
and SPM may have pulmonary
SPM
Black
Smoke
Total SPM
Nitrogen
Dioxide
1 hour
24 hour
effects
400
-
150
Effects of lung infection in
asthmatics from short-term
exposures.
Indoor Air Pollution from Cookstoves
Year
1982
1988
Measurement
conditions
Cooking with
Biomass
Cooking with dung
No.of
measuremen
ts
Particulate
Concentration
(Micrograms/cum)
22
15800
32
18300
10
5500
Cooking with
charcoal
390
4000-21000
Cooking, measured
0.7 meters from the
ceiling.
Individual Exposure during cooking (2-5 hrs each day)
1983
in 4 villages
65
6800
1988
in 5 villages
129
4700
1988
in 2 villages
44
3600
1988
in 8 villages
165
3700
Biomass Energy
Option for Long-Term
Climate Change Mitigation
Stabilization of GHG Concentration
Mitigation Options for India
Mitigation Target
Emissions Gap
Stabilization of GHG Concentration
Global Mitigation Options
20,000
15,000
Mitigation Target
Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per year
25,000
soil carbon sequestration
sequestration from fossil power generation
sequestration from synfuels production
sequestration from H2 production
end-use technology improvements
nuclear
solar
biomass
550 ppmv emissions
10,000
5,000
0
1990 2005
2020
2035
2050
2065
2080
2095
Conclusions
 Biomass
Energy has an important role in
meeting the objectives of UNFCCC
 Biomass production will be impacted by
climate change
 Biomass Energy offer direct health benefits
as a substitute for fossil energy
 Biomass energy as can contribute to health
benefits as climate change mitigation option
 Biomass energy links climate change and
sustainable development