Transcript Document

Economic Dimensions Integrated
Assessment of Climate Change:
Linking Science with Policies
Presentation by
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
International Conference on Science and Technology Capacity Building for Climate Change
October 20-22, 2002 New Delhi
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Presentation Agenda
• Integrated Assessment of Climate Change
• Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Policy Analysis
• Economic insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate
Change
• Capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing
countries
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Integrated Assessment of
Climate Change
Climate Vs. Climate Change
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Integrated Framework for Climate Change
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Multiple Interfaces Climate Change Assessment
Policymaking
Process
Models and
Frameworks
Integrated Assessment
Meteorology
Geophysics
Biology
Ecology
Geochemistry
Knowledge
disciplines
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Economics
Policy sciences
Climatology
Hydraulics
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Why Integrated Assessment?
• To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile
pieces of existing knowledge
• To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge)
• To develop full range of policy outcomes
• To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and
policy formulation
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Integrated Assessment Models
for Climate Change Policy
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AIM Model System
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country
A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions at
country and local level
A set of ecosystem
models, including a
vegetation dynamics
model, a water
resource model, an
agricultural
productivity model
and a health impact
model
AIM/Bottom-up
A bottom-up technology
& land use model for
Asia-Pacific region
AIM/Material
AIM Family
Environmental
Environburden
mental
Environmental
Burden
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
Wastes
Recycle
A environmenteconomy integrated
model with material
balance and recycling
process modules
AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact
Environmental
Burden
Environmental Industry
(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment
Technology needs
Research on new technologies
Temperature
Precipitation
Sunshine
Land use
Water resource
Crop
Productivity
Socio-economic
indicator
Impact on food demand
Adaptation strategy
AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model
AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project
future socioeconomic
trends and
environmental
change for all
42 countries
Future
economic trend
Future
environmental
trend
Korea
China
India
Thailand
Japan
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Integrated Assessment Models
• Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency
pointing to areas where more information is required
• IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools
• Communications tools between different sciences and
between science and policy
• Insights from investigations in the domains of the subcomponents
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Component Models
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GDP and CO2 Emissions:
AIM/Trend Model
50
GDP growth
40
16
C O 2 per capita
[t-C /cap/yr]
30
14
20
12
10
10
EUROPE+FORMER USSR
NORTH AMERICA
8
LATIN AMERICA
AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST
6
4
2040
2030
ASIA PACIFIC
2020
2010
2000
1990
0
2
0
BGD
NPL
MMR
VNM
PAK
IDN
TJK
IND
LKA
KGZ
CHN
PHL
THA
IRN
PRK
UZB
MYS
JPN
NZL
AUS
TKM
TWN
KAZ
KOR
SGP
2032
2025
2015
Year 2005
1995
C ountry
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SO2 Emission
AIM/Emission Model
2000
2030
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060
> 0.060
< 0.20
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Water Consumption:
AIM/Ecosystem Model
1995
Baseline
2032
2030
Fortress World
Market
Force
W A TER C O N S U M P TIO N
2032
Policy Reform
700.0000
C O N S U M P T IO N (km ^3/year)
600.0000
500.0000
400.0000
300.0000
200.0000
MF
FW
PR
GT
100.0000
0.0000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
YEA R
Change of water consumption from 1995 to 2032
(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)
1
m3/ha/year
40
200
1000
5000
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Model System for India’s Emissions Policy Analysis
Models
Top-down Models
Bottom-up Models
Local Models
•AIM/Material
•SGM
•GEMA
•ERB
•AIM/Trend
•ANSWER – MARKAL
•Stochastic MARKAL
•Demand Projection
•AIM/End-use
•Power Sector LP
•AIM/Emissions
•GIS
•Inventory Assessment
•Health Impact
Assessment Model
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Soft-linked Models Framework
Top - Down
Models
AIM/Material
Consolidation
GEMA
Productivity
SGM
Global
Energy
Prices
ERB
AIM/Trend
Regional
projections
Bottom
- Up Models
Power
Sector LP
Prices,
GDP
ANSWER
MARKAL
End -use
Demand
Demand
Projection
Sector
Demand
AIM/E
Technology Share
Energy
Balances
Stochastic
MARKAL
Emissions
Scenarios
Technology
Specifi cations
Local
AIM/Local
nd - use
Models
Local Emissions
Future Projections
GIS Model
Invent o ry
Assessment
Health
Impact
A ssessment
Model
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Economic Insights from
Integrated Climate
Change Assessment
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Few Key Questions for Emissions Policies
• What is the cost-effective emissions pathways to achieve a
specific “GHG concentration stabilization” level?
• What will be the future trends of emissions and intensities?
• How the local and GHG emissions control policies linked?
• What is mitigation supply curve for India?
• How can regional cooperation help in climate change issues?
• What would be the implications of stabilization regime, e.g.
550 ppmv, on India’s energy system during the century
• Is it worth to fund supply-side push of clean technologies like
solar PV for GHG mitigation?
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The Framework Convention On Climate
Change (UNFCCC)
Objective: (Article 2)
...stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.
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Emissions and Concentrations
16
800
IS92a
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350
14
12
750
700
IS92a
650
10
600
ppmv
8
6
550
500
4
450
2
2290
2265
2240
2215
2190
2165
2140
2115
2090
2065
2040
2015
2290
2265
2240
2215
2190
2165
2140
2115
2090
300
2065
-2
2040
350
2015
0
1990
400
1990
PgC/yr
WRE 750
WRE 650
WRE 550
WRE 450
WRE 350
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Energy and Carbon Emissions for India:
AIM/ENDUSE Model
Energy Consumption
Carbon Emissions
800
50
Renewables
Nuclear
Biomass
30
Hydro
Gas
20
Oil
600
400
200
10
0
1995
Carbon (MT)
Exa Joules
40
Coal
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
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Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP
(History and Projections for Reference Scenario)
20
18
Energy
Carbon
Electricity
GDP
16
14
12
10
Past Trends
8
6
4
Future Projections
2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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GDP intensities of Energy, Electricity and Carbon
(Reference Scenario)
1.8
1.6
1.4
Electricity
1.2
Carbon
Energy
1
0.8
0.6
Past Trends
Future Projections
0.4
0.2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
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SO2 Emission
AIM/Emission Model
2000
2030
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.03
0.07
0.11
0.15
Million Tons
< 0.01
0.01-0.017
0.017-0.026
0.026-0.035
0.035-0.044
0.044-0.053
0.053-0.060
> 0.060
< 0.20
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GHG versus Local Emissions in India
Carbon Emissions
SO2 Emissions
800
7
Million Tonnes
Carbon (MT)
6
600
400
5
4
3
2
200
1
0
0
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
1995
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
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Carbon Mitigation Supply Curve
(2005-2035)
60
6 billion tons of
mitigation below
$25/ ton of carbon
Cost ($/Ton of Carbon)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Carbon abatement (billion ton)
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Carbon Mitigation
(under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios)
(in Million Ton)
Scenario
Kyoto Period Medium Term
2000-2012
2000-2030
Long Term
2000-2100
750 ppmv
138 (3%)
743 (5%)
11334 (11%)
650 ppmv
301 (7%)
1555 (11%)
23666 (23%)
550 ppmv
449 (10%)
2503 (17%)
33284 (32%)
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Indian Energy System Transformation
Under 550 ppmv Stabilization
Base Case Energy System
Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case
140
120
Exajoules
100
80
60
40
20
550 ppmv
0
1990
2005
Oil
2020
Gas
Coal
2035
2050
Biomass
Hydro
2065
Solar
2080
2095
Nuclear
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Technological Change in India to
Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv
Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation
2000
1600
1200
80
0
550 PPMV
40
0
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Regional Energy Market Development
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Impact of Regional Energy Market
Developments in South-Asia
Emissions Reduction (2015)
10.5
Reduction (%)
9.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
3.0
1.5
0.0
Carbon
Year
SOX
Grid Integration
Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation
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Advanced Technology: Competitive Paradox
Solar PV Penetration
Carbon Mitigation
40
30%
35
25%
30
20%
25
20
15%
Hi-Solar
15
10%
10
Med-Solar + $25 Tax
5
$25 Tax
5%
Base
0
1990
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
High Solar
$25 Tax
Med Sol+ $25 Tax
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Capacity Building for Integrated
Environment Assessment in
Developing Countries
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Integrated Assessment:
Special concerns of Developing Countries
• Assessment and modeling capabilities
• Inadequate database
• Assumptions derived from developed world
perspective
• Structural changes in the economy
• Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns
• Weak regional and international linkages
• Lack of sustained funding
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Capacity Building Needs for
Developing Countries
• Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences
• Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams
• Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing
country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts
• Sustained funding
• Institutionalize integrated assessment activities
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Summary: Economic Insights
• There is no “silver bullet” for mitigation or adaptation
• Local and global emissions mitigation policies are disjointed
• Regional cooperation can reduce the climate mitigation and impacts
costs significantly
• Strong mitigation regime, e.g. 550 ppmv, can alter the regional energy
system significantly
• Global cost-effectiveness requires substantial mitigation (and
adaptation) in developing countries
• Supply-push of few clean technologies is inadequate for mitigation
• Climate Change impacts is complicated due to “winners and losers”
rather than absolute impacts burden
• Integrated policy assessment is vital for linking climate change and
sustainable development
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