Transcript 2005 EPRI PowerPoint Template
Highlights from Recent EPRI Climate-Related Work
CA Council on Science & Technology October 2006
Bryan Hannegan Director, Environment
About EPRI
•
EPRI is an independent non-profit collaborative research and development organization
– Funded by 1000 energy companies in 40 countries – Includes IOUs, munis, co-ops – Also includes gov’t organizations that fund public benefit R&D (e.g. CEC) •
Climate research is a priority for EPRI
– Inform climate policy discussions – Reduce costs through technology R&D – Support utility investment decisions © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 2
Topics for Today
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Generation Options in a Carbon Constrained World
•
Impacts of CO 2 Prices on Existing & New Generation
•
Advancing Energy Efficiency
•
Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Potential
•
Analysis of CA Climate Legislation
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 3
Generation Options in a Carbon Constrained World
Generation Options Framework
• • •
Levelized cost of electricity
– Standard EPRI methodology – Constant 2006 $ costs – Lines are mean values from a range of studies
Two key uncertainties
– Future “cost” of CO 2 – Future price of natural gas
Two timeframes
– 2010-2015 time-period – 2020-2025 time-period © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 5
Comparative Costs in 2010-2015
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 90 80 NGCC@$6 Wind@29% CF 70 60 PC 50 40 30 0 10 IGCC 20 30 Cost of CO 2 , $/metric ton 40 Biomass Nuclear 50
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 6
Take-Aways for 2010-2015 Time Period
•
Nuclear is clearly lowest-cost, but unlikely before 2015 due to significant licensing & construction time.
•
Next most economic are fossil-fueled technologies (NGCC, PC, and IGCC) w/o CO 2 capture and storage
– Will comprise dispatchable base-load generation prior to 2015 – Natural gas will re-emerge only if prices ~$4/MMBtu •
New advanced coal plants with CO 2 capture and storage will probably not occur until after 2015.
•
Carbon prices must be > $30/tCO 2 for wind, biomass
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 7
Advanced Coal Technology Time Line
2006 2009 2010 2011 2013 2018
• 2 x 750 MW Advanced PC Plant……………….2009
• 600 MW Base Load IGCC Plant…………..……2010 • First of TXU’s 11 New Plants Online (PC).…....2010
• • Carson Project Pet Coke Gasification…….……2011 • FutureGen “Living Laboratory” Operating….….2013
Advanced Coal with Capture Deployment....2018+ Long Technology Development Cycle…With Uncertainty
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 8
What’s Possible: 2020-2025 Horizon
Technology Advances in Efficiency Cost Reductions through Design Improvements CO 2 Capture and Storage - Development and Deployment Biomass Gasification Technology Energy Storage Capability
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 9
Comparative Costs in 2020-2025
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 90 An Extraordinary Opportunity to Develop a Low-Carbon Portfolio 80 70 60 50 40 30 0 NGCC@$6 Wind Biomass 10 PC w/cap IGCC w/cap Nuclear 20 30 Cost of CO 2 , $/metric ton 40 50
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 10
Impact of CO
2
Prices on Existing and New Generation
CO
2
Value Impacts Market Price and Generator Net Revenue for Each Hour of Dispatch
CO2 @ $0
$60
Market Price Sets Price CO2 @ $20 Market Price Sets Price CO2 Cost
$50 $60 $50 $40 $40
CO2 Cost
$30
$50
$20
$25
$10
$5
$0 Nuclear Coal
Generation
Natural Gas © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 12 $30 $20 $10 $0
$25 $50 $5
Nuclear Coal
Generation
Natural Gas
Position in Stack Determines Each Generator’s Net Revenue for the Year – $/kW-year
$450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 0
Net Revenue – CO2 @ $0 ($/ton) & Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
13 Nuc-Hydro Gen Coal Nat Gas Oil Gen Other 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
Generation Stack Position
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006
Coal Land Represented by ECAR + MAIN
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 14
Coal Land – CO
2
@ $0/ton
Net Revenue – CO2 @ $0 ($/ton) & Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100
Nuclear USC PC IGCC Coal/9.8
IGCC/8.6
USC PC/8.7
IGCC w CCS/11.3
USC PC w CCS/11.4
NGCC/7 Nuclear/11.1
Coal/9.8
Coal/9.6
Coal/12.3
Net Rev ($/kW-derated)
Coal/9.6
IGCC w CCS USC PC w CCS Coal/12.3
NGCC
$0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Regional Supply (MW)
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 15 120,000 140,000 160,000
Coal Land – CO
2
@ $50/ton
Net Revenue – CO2 @ $50 ($/ton) & Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400
Nuclear USC PC w CCS IGCC w CCS
IGCC/8.6
USC PC/8.7
IGCC w CCS/11.3
USC PC w CCS/11.4
NGCC/7 Nuclear/11.1
Coal/9.8
Coal/9.6
Coal/12.3
Net Rev ($/kW-derated) $300
USC PC IGCC
$200
Coal/9.8
Coal/9.6
NGCC
$100
Coal/12.3
$0 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
Regional Supply (MW)
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 16 120,000 140,000 160,000
Net Revenues for Existing Units
ECAR-MAIN Generator Net Revenue as a Function of CO2 Value – Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $0 $10 $20 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 $30
CO2 Value ($/ton)
17 $40 $50 Nuc/11.1
Coal/9.8
Coal/9.6
Coal/12.3
$60
Net Revenues for Advanced Generation Units
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $0
ECAR-MAIN Generator Net Revenue as a Function of CO2 Value – Gas @ $8.24 ($/MMBtu)
IGCC/8.6
USC PC/8.7
IGCC w CCS/11.3
USC PC w CCS/11.4
NGCC/7 $10 $20 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 $30
CO2 Value ($/ton)
18 $40 $50 $60
Key Insights
1. Higher production costs from CO 2
imply lower net revenues
value
does not
for some units due to feedback loop from plant costs to market prices 2. Risk exposure to coal generation highly dependent on • Regional generation mix • Gas price level 3. Older coal plants more exposed to CO 2 risk than newer plants, a factor for environmental retrofit decisions © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 19
Advancing Energy Efficiency
Strategies for Efficient Use of Electricity
Three Interrelated Strategies
• Energy Efficiency (EE) • Demand Response (DR) • Dynamic Systems (DS)
EE DR DS Implemented through an Electricity Efficiency Infrastructure that allows “prices to devices”
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Dynamic Systems: A Critical Need
Utility Communications Dynamic Systems Control Data Internet Efficient Building Systems Renewables PV Consumer Portal & Building EMS Distribution Operations Advanced Metering Control Interface Plug-In Hybrids Management Distributed Generation & Storage Smart End-Use Devices
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Creating an Energy Efficiency Initiative
• Established Electricity Efficiency Technology Ad-Hoc Committee of EPRI Board • Conducting Regional Workshops to obtain additional input from utilities and other stakeholders – Oct 31 – Southern California (Hosted by Lynda Ziegler of SCE; contact Ellen Petrill [email protected] for details) • Identify and finalize new elements of EPRI Electricity Efficiency Technology Initiative by end of year • Coordinate with the Edison Electric Institute and other industry organizations © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Potential
Plug-In Hybrid Greenhouse Gas Emissions
800 700 600 500 400 300 Compact Sedan Midsize Sedan 200 100 0 Conventional Vehicle Plug-in Hybrid, 20 mile EV range
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Midsize SUV Fullsize SUV Conventional Power Assist Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid, 60 mile EV range
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CO
2
Offsets Increase with Cleaner Electricity
Vehicle Tailpipe Upstream Gasoline Upstream Electricity Electricity CO 2 in g CO 2 kWh -` emissions 100% Wind, Solar, Hydro Nuclear, Geothermal Source: EPRI 26 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Progress
Batteries Auto •EPRI/SCE Advanced Battery Test Program •EPRI/DOE Product Development •Johnson Control/Saft Alignment •Technology Innovation - Nanotechnololgy •Automotive Analysis in Process •Argonne National Lab Environment Data © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
•Environmental Value Analysis •Environmental Base Program •PHEV Sprinter Data Collection •Eaton/EPRI Trouble Truck 27
HEV Technology Timeline
EPRI PHEV Sprinter with DaimlerChrysler EPRI/Utility PHEV Fleet Demonstrations Initial EPRI PHEV Study EPRI PHEV Utility Trouble Truck with Eaton/Ford DOE Begins PHEV Program First PHEVs: 7 to 20-mile EV Range Li Ion Battery Costs Decrease Most OEMs Have PHEV in Lineup 30-mile EV range 40-mile EV Range
2000
HEV Market Introduction
2005
HEV Sales Accelerate
2010
Initial PHEV Market Intro
2015
PHEV Sales Accelerate
2020
Widespread PHEV Adoption Infrastructure Li Ion Batteries Enter HEV Market © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Customer Market Pull: Increased EV Range Greater EV Performance Plug-in Night Time Charge 24 Hr. Grid Access Auto-Docking Time of Use Charge & Automatic Billing 28
Overview of California Climate Policy Activity
California Climate Policy Activity
Government policy actions
• Governor's Executive Order sets GHG mitigation targets • State Senate and Governor announce deal for comprehensive cap on GHG emissions (AB 32) • New long term (> 5 years) base-load requires performance standard equal to a CCGT (SB 1368) • 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard by 2020 (PUC)
EPRI California climate policy research
• Analysis of CA GHG mitigation targets • Analysis of 3 existing economic studies © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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California GHG Legislation —Key Points
Role of the Air Resources Board
• Rules, procedures, regulations, etc.
unclear at present
• “achieve
maximum technologically feasible and cost effective
GHG reductions.” • Authorizes “
market-based compliance mechanism(s)
” • Mandatory reporting of GHG emission sources
Timing
• 6/30/2007 ARB to publish list of “early actions…” • By 1/1/2011 ARB shall adopt regulations • Become effective 1/1/2012 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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California GHG Legislation —Key Points
Economic impact unclear at present
• State has yet to work out details of implementation • Supporters say it won’t harm business
Provision for “safety valve”
• Governor has authority to delay emission-cap by up to one year in an emergency
New Energy Investments Face Uncertainty
• Any project will face undefined restrictions/costs as reductions, measures and limits not known until 2011 • Financing these projects may be very difficult © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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EPRI Examining California GHG Policies
Independent analysis of economic costs and benefits
• Funded by Southern California Edison • Project duration-- January 2006--June 2007 • EPRI has provided status reports to SCE and other interested organizations • Project results will be provided to the public • Advisory Committee provides peer-review • Report will be released November 2006 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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EPRI Evaluation of Previous Economic Studies
Previous research indicated “benefits” for economy
• Economic analysis by the Climate Action Team • Independent economic analysis by Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) • Third report by UC Berkeley Climate Change Center
All three studies based on “bottom-up” analysis of many separate policy measures
• “Bottom-up” analyses displays systematic optimistic bias about the economic costs • Undergoing peer-review and should be widely available in near future © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Closing Thoughts
California climate activities important for rest of country
• May lead to other state/regional/national proposals • “Getting rules right” in California will be helpful for subsequent proposals in other states or nationally
Remember deregulation …
• Issues are complex; unintended consequences costly • Any proposed government actions (ARB) should be carefully examined prior to implementation: - What are the impacts on electric system? economy?
- How do you constrain electricity imports?
- Can technology meet the pace of regulations?
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Carbon Prices DO Affect Electricity Rates!
© 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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