Transcript LFT_FDN_Presentation.potx

FHWA TRAVELER ANALYSIS
FRAMEWORK
Bus Trip Tables
Don Vary, CDM Smith
Krishnan Viswanathan, CDM Smith
May 9, 2013
Agenda
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Purpose
Data Examined
Methods Explored
Geography
Summary Results
– Base year 2008
– Forecast year 2040
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FHWA Traveler Analysis Framework
• VMT Forecasting and Analysis Model
• Long Distance Passenger Inter-regional Travel Origin
Destination Data
• National Travel Model
• Long distance passenger travel modal choice model
• Freight and passenger integration, and multimodal
analysis
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Project Objective and Deliverables
• To provide baseline travel information for analyzing
projects of regional and national significance, corridors,
policy initiatives, interstate commerce, and Federal
programs.
• Auto, bus, rail, aviation
• Long-distance inter-regional multimodal passenger
travel origin destination matrix for 2008 and 2040
• A set of documented and transparent methodologies to
expedite future development
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Project Team
FHWA
Daniel Jenkins,
Project Manager
Roger Mingo
Associates
Roger Mingo
CDM Smith
Krishnan
Viswanathan
Don Vary
RSG, Inc.
Colin Smith
Bhargava Sana
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Data Examined
• 1995 ATS
• 2001 NHTS
• California Long Distance Survey
(2011)
• Ohio Long Distance Survey (20022003)
• 2008 American Bus Association
Motor Coach Survey
• 2011 Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration Data
• Russell’s National Motor Coach
Guide
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Trip Generation
Age
Under 18
18-64
65 and older
Income
Vehicles
0
1+
Under $35,000
0.062
0.097
$35,000-$75000
0.872
0.155
>$75,000
0.868
0.156
Under $35,000
0.342
0.474
$35,000-$75000
0.619
0.263
>$75,000
0.411
0.151
Under $35,000
0.679
0.212
$35,000-$75000
1.045
0.190
>$75,000
1.051
0.097
Source: CDM Smith and American Travel Survey
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Destination Choice
• 1.41 * (LN(HH) + 2 *LN (EMP)) - 2.34 * LN
(DISTANCE)
Trip Length Distribution
Bus
45%
40%
35%
1995 ATS Bus
30%
Estimated 2008 Bus
25%
Estimated 2040 Bus
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
100 to
200
miles
200 to
300
miles
300 to
400
miles
400 to
500
miles
500 to
600
miles
600 to
700
miles
700 to
800
miles
800 to
900
miles
900 to
1000
miles
More
than
1000
miles
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To Orlando > 5K Trips
To Los Angeles > 5K Trips
Summary Results
Auto
Share 1995
Share 2008
Share 2040
Total Growth (1995 to
2008)
Annual Total Growth
(1995 to 2008)
Total Growth (2008 to
2040)
Annual Total Growth
(2008 to 2040)
Air
Rail
Bus
81.3%
82.2%
80.1%
16.1%
14.5%
16.7%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
2.0%
2.3%
2.2%
50%
34%
81%
68%
3.2%
2.3%
4.7%
4.1%
43%
69%
46%
38%
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
1.0%
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Geography
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Final Products
OD flow data by mode (number of trips by mode) for the
identified 226 zones
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Recommendations and Observations
• The to be released OD data shall be recognized as
synthesized data and shall be used as a starting point for
any other project and program.
• Additional verification and analysis are strongly
recommended.
• New national comprehensive passenger flow OD data
survey shall be conducted.
• FHWA is going through its review and possible
enhancement on bus and geography data. Data should
be released by the end of the summer.
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Thank you!
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