Transcript Slide 1
A post-2015 development framework Lars Engberg-Pedersen Senior researcher DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The strength of the MDGs Focus on poverty reduction and well-being A limited set of simple goals Focus on outcome, not input Focus on objectives, not means Goals supplied with indicators enabling annual monitoring Good time frame, not too long, not too short DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The weaknesses of the MDGs Too much focus on developing countries, too little on rich countries Too strong focus on social aspects of life, too little on employment and production Too little concern with the political dimensions of poverty Too little concern with inequality Irrelevant in many country contexts DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Current global changes Poverty is increasingly a result of international processes (climate change, rising food and fuel prices, financial crisis…) A chaotic ‘aid architecture’ Heterogeneous development paths 75% of the world’s poor live in middle income countries Changes in the balance of global power due to rising ‘emerging economies’, economic crisis, aging populations in rich countries, etc. Aid resources are dwarfed by other financial flows (FDI, remittances, philanthropy, illicit capital flows, etc.) DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Current contentious issues Inequality or ‘getting to zero’ Climate change and development Global or universal goals Ends and/or means Financing A changing world DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Inequality in the post-2015 framework Gender equality – probably yes Social protection floors – yes Measurement of progress among the poorest – yes Stand-alone goal on reduced inequality – not likely – A possibility is to use the Palma ratio dividing the income of the top 10% with the income of the bottom 40% DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Possible goal: Halving the Palma ratio Country Palma ratio 2010 Baseline Palma ratio 2030 Target Bolivia (2008) 4.847 2.924 Brazil (2009) 4.302 2.651 Bulgaria (2007) 0.997 - Burkina Faso (2009) 1.859 1.430 China (2005) 2.154 1.577 Denmark (1997) 0.922 - France (1995) 1.267 1.134 Germany (2000) 0.992 - Ghana (2005) 2.172 1.586 India (2004) 1.355 1.178 Japan (1993) 0.875 - Malaysia (2009) 2.627 1.814 Netherlands (1999) 1.094 1.047 South Africa (2008) 7.052 4.026 Tanzania (2007) 1.653 1.327 United Kingdom (1999) United States (2000) 1.623 1.852 1.312 1.426 DIIS ∙ DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES