Transcript Slide 1

Recent demographic
trends
Jitka Rychtaříková
Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science
Department of Demography and Geodemography
Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech Republic
tel.: 420 221 951 420 e-mail: [email protected]
LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009
Outline
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Recent fertility change and current fertility
patterns
New phenomena: low fertility, postponement,
extramarital fertility
Country classification based on current
fertility patterns
Mortality change
Population ageing as primarily the outcome
of fertility change
Population prospects
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In the past forty years the rate and
character of fertility in Europe has
changed considerably.
The newly established model of fertility is
historically unprecedented, as the small
number of live births is insufficient to
secure even simple demographic
reproduction in the future.
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Shift toward rare and late chilbearing

Profound fertility decline has occurred in
Northern and Western European societies
since the mid 1960s, was over by the end
of the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has
emerged since the beginning of the 1990s
in Eastern Europe.

Late fertility starts being a common widely
accepted pattern.
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Variations in TFR over time
in 30 European countries
simple reproduction
low fertility
lowest low fertility
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1,0
Island
Ireland
France
Norway
United Kingdom
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
Belgium
Netherlands
Estonia
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Switzerland
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Latvia
Spain
Greece
Slovenia
Austria
Malta
Germany
Lithuania
Italy
Portugal
1,4
Hungary
1,6
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Total fertility rate
Two country groups in 2007:
just below replacement level and very low fertility
2,1
2,0
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,5
Lowest-low fertility
Low fertility
1,3
1,2
1,1
Low fertility trap:
two critical tresholds
 Low
fertility: TFR less than 1,5
 Lowest low fertility: TFR less than 1,3
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P. McDonald (2005): it is much more difficult for
a country to raise fertility when the total fertility
rate has fallen below the critical level of 1,5
children per woman.
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The situation becomes even more desperate
when the lowest low fertility (below 1,3) is
reached.
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4,50
Romania
Poland
Hungary
Portugal
Italy
Lithuania
Germany
Malta
Austria
Slovenia
Greece
Spain
Latvia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Estonia
Netherlands
Belgium
Finland
Denmark
Sweden
United Kingdom
Norway
France
Ireland
Island
Total fertility rate
If we look back in history it is clear that the current
European fertility patterns have little to do with
previous demographic development
1960
1980
2007
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
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The correlation coefficient between total fertility and relative GDP
(EU27=1) was 0,513 in 2007.
This means that the richer the country within the EU,
the more children it was possible to expect.
1,5
1,0
0,5
Total fertility rate
0,0
GDP (EU 27 = 1)
Bulgaria
Romania
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Slovakia
Estonia
Portugal
Malta
Czech Republic
Greece
Cyprus
Slovenia
Italy
Spain
France
Germany
Finland
Belgium
United …
Island
Denmark
Sweden
Austria
Netherlands
Switzerland
Ireland
Norway
Luxembourg
Total fertility rate and GDP (EU27 = 1)
2,0
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Fertility postponement a part
of a postponement transition
Factors behind
Longer education
 Building a professional career
 Reliable contraception
 ART treatment „solving“ also problems
of postponed parenthood
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United Kingdom
Switzerland
Spain
Germany
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
France
Greece
Denmark
Finland
Slovenia
Norway
Ireland
Belgium
Cyprus
Portugal
Austria
Hungary
Czech Republic
Iceland
Poland
Slovakia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Bulgaria
Younger age does not more mean a higher fertility
30
Mean age at first childbirth in 2005
29
28
27
26
25
24
Late parenthood (motherhood):
miscellaneous impact on fertility levels
North and West of Europe: a higher age at the
first childbearing does not imply low fertility
levels.
East and South of Europe show a „negative
correlation“ between an increasing age of
mothers and final low fertility levels, thus
confirming a classical theory as regards
the relationship between age at first childbirth
and final fertility rate.
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0,0
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Iceland
France
Ireland
Norway
Sweden
Finland
United Kingdom
Denmark
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Belgium
Estonia
Cyprus
30-34
Switzerland
Malta
Austria
25-29
Greece
Bulgaria
Latvia
20-24
Portugal
Spain
Hungary
Czech Republic
-19
Germany
Italy
Romania
1,8
Slovenia
Poland
Lithuania
Slovakia
2006: Cumulative age-specific fertility rates;
(country order according to TFR)
2,0
35+
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
Another new phenomenon
 Increase
in extra-marital births
 Accelerating
in last decades
 Reflecting cultural settings
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Iceland
Estonia
Sweden
Norway
Bulgaria
France
Slovenia
Denmark
United Kingdom
Latvia
Finland
Austria
Netherlands
Hungary
Czech Republic
Ireland
Portugal
Germany
Lithuania
Romania
Luxembourg
50
Slovakia
60
Spain
Belgium
Malta
Poland
Italy
Switzerland
Cyprus
Greece
Extra-marital births per 100 births:
uneven increase over time
70
1960
1980
2006
40
30
20
10
Variations in share of extramarital births
over time in 30 European countries
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An increase of extra-marital births
does not mean a rising cohabitation
as an alternative to family legalized
by marriage but more often
means a lone motherhood
Countries with low nonmarital fertility ratios (Italy,
Spain, Belgium) tend to have also low overall
childhood exposure to single parenting.
Parental cohabitation accounts for much nonmarital
fertility in Northern Europe.
P.Heuveline, J.T. Timberlake, F.F.Furstenberg: Shifting childrearing to single mothers: Results from 17 Western countries, Population
and Development Review, 29, 2003, 1
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Three most imortant recent changes: fertility
decline, increase in mean age at first childbirth,
increase in the share of extra-marital births
A country classification according to
current levels of TFR, mean age at
first chilbearing, and the percentage
of extramarital births.
Three country groups and
one outlier can be delimited.
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TFR
Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
MAB1 Extramar
1,32
25,97
36,18
Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Switzerland
Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom
1,40
28,56
16,92
1,80
28,50
42,08
Iceland
2,05
26,29
65,72
Total
1,51
27,43
33,80
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Cluster characteristics show
puzzled fertility patterns
1. Group (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) shows the lowest low
fertility level, the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium
frequency of extramarital births.
2. Group (Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Switzerland)
displays low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low
proportion of extramarital births.
3. Group (Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,
Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom), experiences the highest fertility, high
age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births.
Might this group represent forerunners of
a suitable/sustainable fertility?
Traditional demographic correlations are violated: young age and
low frequency of extra-marital births do no more correlate with
high fertility levels!
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Cohort fertility of women born in 1980:
Possible future prospects?
Fertility rates for older ages estimated by using the rates observed for previous generations
CFR (completed fertility rate: birth cohort 1980)
2,1
simple reproduction
2,0
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,6
1,5
low fertility
1,4
1,3
lowest low fertility
1,72
1,77
1,80
1,81
1,85
1,86
1,95
1,95
2,09
Sweden
United Kingdom
Finland
Denmark
Norway
France
Ireland
Iceland
1,44
Switzerland
Netherlands
1,43
Portugal
1,69
1,43
Austria
Luxembourg
1,39
Romania
1,60
1,39
Lithuania
Belgium
1,37
Latvia
Estonia 1,57
1,37
Germany
Cyprus 1,47
1,37
Bulgaria
1,33
Czech Republic
1,36
1,32
Spain
Hungary
1,31
Slovakia
1,33
1,31
Poland
Greece
1,31
Italy
1,0
1,28
1,1
Slovenia
1,2
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Current fertility and future prospects for Europe
Is the expected TFR increase realistic in low fertility countries ?
2,2
TFR 2007
TFR 2060
2,0
1,8
1,6
1,4
Sorted according to 2060
France
Norway
Ireland
Sweden
United Kingdom
Finland
Denmark
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Belgium
Estonia
Cyprus
Switzerland
Malta
Austria
Greece
Spain
Bulgaria
Portugal
Latvia
Hungary
Czech Republic
Italy
Germany
Slovenia
Romania
Lithuania
Poland
Slovakia
1,2
Europop2008: Convergence scenario (convergence year 2150)
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Mortality change and its impact

Decrease at older age in all countries

Population 65+: pension system

Population 80+: health care system
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France
Sweden
Spain
Greece
United Kingdom
Austria
Germany
Ireland
Finland
Cyprus
Italy
Luxembourg
Belgium
Netherlands
Malta
Denmark
Portugal
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Romania
Hungary
22
Slovakia
24
Estonia
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Latvia
Survival in EU27+(2): 2005
Life expectancy at age 65
Males
Females
20
18
16
14
12
Population aging (increase in the proportion of people age
65+ or 60+) is the most challenging phenomenon in the
21st century.
It is the outcome of the demographic transition from high to low
levels of fertility and mortality.
The role of international migration in this process has been less
important than that of fertility and mortality.
The older population itself is aging and the oldest-old (age 80+)
represent the fastest growing age group.
Population aging is a historically unprecedented
and likely irreversible phenomenon.
Population aging has implications on family composition and living
arrangements, intergenerational transfers, pension system,
health care system, etc.
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Sorted according to 2060
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r = + 0,134
Poland
Slovakia
Romania
Lithuania
Latvia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Italy
Germany
2009
Malta
Spain
Hungary
Greece
% age 65+
Portugal
Estonia
Austria
Switzerland
Finland
Netherlands
Sweden
Belgium
Cyprus
France
Norway
Ireland
Denmark
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
There is no correlation in the share of 65+
between 2009 and 2060
2060
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Fertility is the key factor as regards
the future population ageing
Proportion of population aged 65 and over in 2050
is correlated with (based on EU27 countries):
Total fertility rate (2005)
-0,591**
Population 65+ (2005)
0,454*
Male life expectancy at 65 (2004)
-0,004
Female life expectancy at 65 (2004)
-0,043
** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2- tailed)
* Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed)
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Very low fertility levels if maintained will lead to rapid population loss
and an extreme form of population ageing in individual countries.
The population is projected to become older in all EU member states,
Norway and Switzerland.
The share of people age 65+ is currently between 12% (Cyprus) and
20% (Germany, Italy). However, the figure will at least double in all EU
27+2 countries.
In 2060, the share of people age 65+ is expected to reach a minimum
of 24% (Luxembourg) and a maximum of 36% (Poland).
The oldest populations in 2060 will be: Poland (36.2), Slovakia (36.1),
Romania (35.0), Lithuania (34.7), Latvia (34.4), Bulgaria (34.2).
The“youngest“ in 2060: Luxembourg (23.6), United Kingdom (24.7),
Denmark (25.0)
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The oldest and the poorest
Old-age dependency ratio (population at age of: 65+/20-64*100)
Poland
Slovakia
Lithuania
Romania
Latvia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Spain
Italy
Malta
Germany
Hungary
Greece
Estonia
Portugal
Austria
Finland
Switzerland
Netherlands
Sweden
Belgium
France
Cyprus
Norway
Ireland
Denmark
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Sorted according to 2060
2060
0
10
20
30
40
50
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60
2009
70
80
Factor 1 Factor 2
Total fertility rate
0,762
0,021
Male life expectancy at birth
0,881
0,092
Old-age dependency ratio
0,019
0,986
Crude rate of population change
0,816
-0,478
Explained variability
51%
30%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
Lower OADR
Higher OADR
Living more and reproducing less: conditions in 2007-2008
Lower fertility, shorter survival,
Higher fertility, longer survival,
negative population change
positive population change
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Demographic continuum in 2060 for EU27+Norway+Switzerland
Factor scores
1,5
2060
1,0
0,5
Ireland
Norway
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
France
Sweden
Denmark
Cyprus
Belgium
Finland
Netherlands
Switzerland
Austria
Portugal
Greece
Italy
Spain
Malta
Germany
Estonia
Hungary
Slovenia
Czech Republic
-1,0
Bulgaria
Romania
Poland
Latvia
Slovakia
-0,5
Lithuania
0,0
-1,5
Lower fertility, shorter
survival, negative
population change, and
high OADR
Factor
Total fertility rate
0,844
Male life expectancy at birth
0,807
Old-age dependency ratio
-0,970
Crude rate of population change
0,969
Explained variability
81,10%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis
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Higher fertility, longer
survival, positive
population change, and
lower OADR
Rethinking age and aging
by Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov, Population Bulletin, Vol.63, No.4, 2008
With advances in health and life expectancy, the meaning
of the number of years lived has changed.
Prospective age
assigns ages to
people on the basis
of their remaining
life expectancies in
a reference year,
not on the number
of years that they
have already lived.
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Two turning points for EU27: 2015 and 2035
2015: natural increase will convert in natural decrease
2035: start of the population decline
1,8
Change in total population over time
1,6
2060/2009
0,6
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Norway
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Sweden
Belgium
Spain
France
Austria
Denmark
Portugal
Finland
Netherlands
Italy
Greece
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovenia
Germany
Estonia
Slovakia
Poland
Romania
Lithuania
Latvia
0,8
Bulgaria
1,0
Malta
1,2
Cyprus
Luxembourg
2015/2009
Ireland
2035/2009
1,4
Misfortunate Eastern and Central Europe
seems to reemerge
Between 2009 and 2015 (or 2035 or 2060), the largest
population decline is expected in Bulgaria, Latvia,
Lithuania, and Romania.
The profound decrease will also be experienced by
populations in Central Europe (Poland, Slovakia,
Germany, Hungary, and the Czech Republic).
The previously high mortality in Eastern and Central
Europe (with the exception of West Germany) will thus face
a new threat of depopulation, this time primarily
due to a long-term low or lowest low fertility.
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EU Old and New Members:
keep being divided
The most substantial percentage decrease
will be experienced by the populations

in the fresh newcomers (Bulgaria, Romania),

then Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania),

followed by Central Europe (Czech Republic, Slovakia,
Poland, and Hungary)
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Can fertility be enhanced ?

The role of family policy

The role of ART
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Two scenarios for the future numbers of
children conceived with ART
Projected numbers of ART infants
50 000
Assumptions: 2025 in each country 5% ART infants
2050 in each country 7% ART infants
40 000
2025
2050
30 000
20 000
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France
United Kingdom
Germany
Italy
Poland
Spain
Netherlands
Romania
Belgium
Sweden
Portugal
Greece
Hungary
Czech Republic
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Latvia
Slovenia
Estonia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Malta
0
Lithuania
10 000
Proposal I
Building a society for all ages
 Enabling to have family at any age
 Reconciliation of work/education and
family

 Freedom
of choice
One standard life pattern
should be avoided
education-career-children
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Proposal II

Access to ART treatment for people in
need and at any age

Giving priority to policies slowing
fertility ageing
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Conclusions
■Europe will remain the world’s oldest region into the 21st century.
■ In the process of population aging, fertility was and still remains the
primary important driver while mortality starts gaining increased
importance.
■Population aging may be seen as a human success story—the triumph
of public health, medical advancements, and economic development.
(Global Aging : The challenge of success by K.Kinsella and D.R. Phillips, Population Bulletin, Vol.60, No.1, 2005)
■However, in the future, countries of former Eastern Europe will
accumulate all of the disadvantages:
Being the oldest, experiencing the lowest fertility, shorter life
expectancy, and having the lowest GDP.
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Thank you
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