Transcript Transport environment PERSPECTIVES

Transport environment
PERSPECTIVES
B.V.L.Narayana
SPTM/ RSC/ BRC
7/7/2015
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OBJECTIVES
TO EXPOSE THE CLASS TO THE CHANGES
OCCURRING IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
POLICY ISSUES
CHANGES IN MODAL BUSINESSES
ATTAIN AN OVERVIEW OF THE INDUSTRY
UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF THE
INDUSTRY
FACILITATE CREATION OF A BASE OF
KNOWLEDGE FOR UTILISATION FOR THE
THEME PAPER
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Structure of presentation
Present status of transportation industry
Look at policy perspectives
Eleventh plan
National integrated transport policy-2001
Status of modes of transport
Railways, roads, shipping, airways
Trends in customer requirements
Logistics and SCM evolution
Some issues for discussion
Emphasis on railways approach paper
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ROLE OF TRANSPORT -ECONOMY
Economic functions (Fromm 1965)
Input to production process
Help in shifting of production possibility frontier
• Alter factor costs
• Reduce inventory costs
Increase factor mobility
• Optimize economic value generation for factors
Increase welfare of people
• Provide access to services- jobs, health care etc
• Improve social cohesion
• Improve security
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Transport role in economy
Rural transport improvements
Lower agriculture production costs
Develops non agricultural rural economy
Urban transport improvements
Improves labor accessibility
Improves access to amenities
Inter- urban transport improvements
facilitates trade
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Role of transportation
Efficient system necessary for
productivity
Competitiveness
Necessitates
Adequacy
Reliability of transport infrastructure and
services
Role of government crucial
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Perspectives --economy
Growing Indian economy—6-9 %
Globalization
Increasing international trade
Technological changes
Increased use of ICT
Newer and complex technologies
Integration of economies
WTO and GATT agreements
World energy crisis
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Issues in transportation
confronted with the changing pattern of
industrial production and geography
away from traditional industries and
clusters towards a more dispersed
pattern embodying high value and low
volume manufactures.
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PERSPECTIVES
Scenario dominated by
Roadways
Railways
Attempt
To develop other modes
Develop in an integrated manner
Achieve efficient, safe, sustainable regionally balanced
system
Each mode economically useful and self sustainable
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Transport environment
Task force on integrated transport policy –2001
Traffic elasticity –GDP will decrease—at 1
Share of high value low volume traffic will increase
Integrated transport policy—Issues in system
Consumes 40% of energy
Slow technological development
Low investments in capacity building
Low share of rail traffic
Capacity constraints-- require investments
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Transport environment
Study forecasting up to 2025-2026
RITES+ Planning commission
LOOK FOR ROUTE WISE PLANNING
USE OF IT
Provide complete logistic solutions
Develop logistic hubs
Sustainable transport policy
Maintain high economic growth
High resource generation
Prudent use of natural resources
Protection of environment
Social progress
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Core philosophy –ITP 2001
View transport system
As an Integrated structure
Where Modes
•
•
•
•
•
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complement each other
interface each other
Compete with each other
Are efficient
Take advantage of key characteristics
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Policy objectives
Meet demand generated by economic growth
Ensure development
With equal regional participation
Capacity augmentation
With priority for maintenance
Optima inter-modal mix
Higher generation of internal resources
Promote safe, environment friendly, sustainable
system
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Transport environment
Objectives of policy
Develop an economically rational inter-modal mix
Develop efficient sustainable, safe, regionally
balanced network
Improved service and network development
Optimal inter-modal mix and freight –passenger
mix for railways
Increase rural connectivity
Promote efficiency in operations– add value and
provide value to customers
Develop and maintain an updated database
• Intra regional and inter regional
Increase rail share of traffic
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Issues –policy level
Expansion, modernization, technology up
gradation
Old assets to be replaced
Slow technology induction
require capacity expansion
An opportunity for catching up
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Issues—policy
Pricing and financing
Requires scaling up of investments
•
•
•
•
3-4 times present level
Higher budgetary support
Greater internal resource generation
Other sources
Pricing to
• Conform to actual resource used
• Subsidies
 Rare societal considerations
 explicit
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Issues --policy
Use pricing, taxation, subsidy to
Develop an optimal inter-modal mix
Promote efficiency in operation
Enhance revenue generation
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Issues --policy
Energy , environment
consumes 40% of energy
Conflict with environment
•
•
•
•
Pollution
Land use
Intrusion into spaces
Congestion
Impact on other sectors
Need to look at environmental concerns
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Issues --policy
Private sector participation
Distinguish between
• Infrastructure development
• Service provision
To be involved in both
Aim to provide open access to infrastructure in
all modes
Garner resources through participation
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Regulatory framework--policy
Sector prone to market failures
Public goods
High capital costs
• Require economies of scale
Element of sunk costs
Externalities
• Pollution, congestion, land use
• Impact production of services
Individually natural monopolies
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Issues --policy
Regulatory frame work
Required for
•
•
•
•
•
Prevent exploitation of natural monopoly
Monitor quality of services
manage competition
Ensure responsiveness
Settle disputes on use of infrastructure
Need to be independent
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Initiatives –tenth plan-railways
Initiatives
Container train operations opened for all
DFC
Liberalization of siding policy
Incentive schemes—freight, terminals
RVNL
PPP cell
• for development of logistics chains
Dedicated power plants
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Concerns in tenth plan- railways
Neglect of piecemeal traffic
Poor penetration of containerization
Line and terminal capacities
Mechanization of freight terminals
Security concerns
Poor project implementation
Asset reliability
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Eleventh five year plan targets
INDICES
2006-07
20011-12
Freight (M MT)
726
1100
Freight (BTKM)
479
720
Passenger (Mil)
6400
8400
Passenger (BKm) 683
880
Frt 5 yrs M MT
3031
4713
Frt 5 yrs BTKM
2060
3036
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Issues for Discussion
In what business we are in?
Do we estimate demand?
Who can help us in estimation of demand?
How do we cost services?
Do we need to change Mgmt/ orgn structure?
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Throw forward of projects
on railways (planning commission)
KMS
Rs crore
NEW LINES
8132
31,519
GUAGE CONVERSION
7148
10,417
DOUBLING
3213
7,314
ELECTRIFICATION
TRAFFIC FACILITY
WORKS/nos
1,952
1,080
325
2,044
METROPLITAN TRANSPORT
3,820
TOTAL
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56,194
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PERFORMANCE OF RAILWAYS ( planning
commission)
ACT TAR
UAL GET
ACTUALS
2001- 2006- 2002 2003 2004
02
07
-03 -04 -05
ORIGINATING
518. 557. 602.
FREIGHT/MT 492.5 624
7
4
1
FREIGHT)BNT
353. 381. 407.
KMS
333.2 396
2
2
4
ORIGINATING
PASSENGERS/
Millions
5169 5686 5048 5202 5475
PASSENGERS/
515. 542. 576.
BPKMS
494.2 593
4
1
6
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2005 2006
-06 -07
666. 728.
5
4
439.
6 475
5832 6352
616. 691.
6
8
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Transport environment--railways
Issues in railways
Slow increase in capacity
Slow increase in volume handling
Slow execution of projects
Slow penetration of containerization
Low share in traffic
High tariff of energy charged to railways
Other issues in sector
Encourage pit head/coastal power plants
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Objectives –eleventh planrailways
Create adequate capacity to cater to
Long term growth
Medium term growth
Provide improved services
Railways- Capacity expansion will give benefit in
12th plan so
Capacity enhancement through quick yielding
investments
Utilize capacity enhancements in rolling stock
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Challenges in eleventh planrailways
Double its transport capacity
Reduce unit costs of operations
Improve service levels
To achieve this concentrate on
Investments—strategic capacity expansion
Core business of providing logistic solutions to freight
and passenger customers
Institutionalize market responsive pricing and planning
policies
Provide cost efficient door to door and customized
services
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KEY ISSUES FOR RAILWAYS
NEW ASSET INVESTMENTS AT
HIGHER LEVEL—215000 CRORES
REPLACEMENT OF ASSETS- 60000
CRORES
INCREASED INTERNAL GENERATION
EXTRA BUDGETARY SOURCES
RATIONALISE TARIFFS
REDUCE CROSS SUBSIDIZATION
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ISSUES FOR RAILWAYS
CAPACITY ENHANCEMENT
Dedicated freight corridors
Other routes
•
•
•
•
Low cost capacity expansion
Route wise planning
Investments in mineral routes
Investments in feeder routes to DFC
Rolling stock increase
• Increased production facilities
Short term capacity enhancement
• Manage seasonal and directional variations
• Higher axle loads
• Investments in maintenance practices
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Issues for Railways
Technology up-gradation
Longer trains
Optimize utilization of coach capacity
Reduce speed differentials
• High speed freight stock
• Improve freight terminal approaches
Use of IT for improved service delivery
• UTS
• Universal ticketing at doorstep
• FOIS
Improve project management
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Transport environment
Road sector
Increase in capacity of network
Integrate development of state highways with existing
network
Develop Asian highway network
Poor maintenance of network
Induction of technology—high axle load
No tax collection barriers
Emphasis on rural connectivity
Resource constraints
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Objectives for 11th plan –roads
Develop roads as part of integrated transport
system
Expedite NHDP
Removal of deficiencies on high density
corridor—NH
Enhance high density corridors—SH and MDRs
Emphasis on express way development
Emphasis on NE connectivity
Rural connectivity
Get resources from private sector
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Issues in road sector
Unable to handle traffic densities and speed
Poor riding quality
Need speeding up of investments
Improve maintenance
Safety on roads
Increase length of expressways
Need for capacity standards to be identified
Integrated development of road network
Integrated road transport development plan
Pollution control
Barrier free movement
Overloading
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Issues with development of road
sector– projects management
Constraint of resources
Thin spreading of resources
Delay in pre-construction activities
Poor contract management
Weak contractors
Poor implementation capacities
Poor maintenance
Non plan activity is neglected
Multiple agencies involved
No proper standards
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Issues in road transport
Fuel consumption –
5.7% per year 1980-2004
3% per year thereafter
Vehicle population increasing rapidly
Total by 11%
HCV 7%
Road Network increased by 4.5%
Poor safety and environmental management
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Barriers to road transport
Seven different agencies for clearances to
do transport
Taxes –central and state
Stoppages and checks at check posts
Multiplicity of laws for access to roads
Barriers to interstate transport
Checks for overloading, weighments
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Measures to prevent overloading
Discourage increase in axle load permissions
Discourage modification in design—incorporate
in registration certificate
Install in motion weigh bridges
Enforcement at source of loading
Repeated lapses leads to deregistration of
companies
Offload and handle at detection points—supreme
court directive
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BHARAT NIRMAN
Target by 2009
Build 146915 km of rural roads
Connect 66802 inhabitations
Upgrade 1.94 lakh km of existing rural roads
Needs 78000 crores
25000 crores required by states for renewal
Core network of 1.4 million km (DR)
Requires 14000 crores yearly for maintenance
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Rural road connectivity
Build 146915 km of rural roads
Developed as part of rural development
Now segregated under PMGSY
Now integrated with bharat nirman
Aim to provide connectivity to habitations with
1000 population
Link rural roads with existing network
Provide infrastructure at village level
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Impact of rural road connectivity
Improvement in transportation services
Diversification of agriculture
Improved market access
Diversification of livelihood opportunities
Improved services
Improved out reach in state
Decline in incidence of poverty
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Shipping --perspectives
Rising import and export volumes
Critical for maritime trade
Objective to double our foreign trade
8.4 million GT– 1.1% of world GT
Tonnage stagnant till 2004-05
Contributes 2 to 2.5% of GDP
Emphasis on multimodal transportation
Containerization 574 million TEUs by 2015; 6%
growth
Ports handle 800 million tonnes -2012
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Trends impacting shipping
Globalization of businesses
Increasing international trade
Global ownership and management of port terminals
Increased private sector participation
Increased trends towards
Multi modal transportation
Containerization 574 million TEUs by 2015; 6% growth
bigger ships
In India– large role for state and private owned terminals
Use of IT
WTO negotiations and commitment to services
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Eleventh plan issues
To handle 800 million tonnes through
Expansion and modernization
Have deep water ports
Achieve international productivity norms
Capacity augmentation through PPP mode
Rail road connectivity
Emphasis on
Non major ports
Competition and transparency in services
Redeployment of surplus assets
EDI
Regulatory framework
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National maritime development
programme
Total investment – 100,339 crores
Port sector – 55804 crores
IWT and shipping– 44555 crores
Time line completion by 2011-12
Port sector—
276 projects
34505 crores private sector participation
Port connectivity
Ten road projects—329.5 km-2036 Cr
Eight rail projects—961.5 km- 2119 Cr
4 road and 5 rail under consideration
All ports to have four lane road+ DL rail
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Issues in shipping
Increase GT in line with international trade
share
Expand coastal shipping
Expand role for IWT
Increase scope for multi-modal transport
Increase ports infrastructure and
connectivity
Low productivity
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Air transport- perspectives
Preferred mode for
Long distance travel
Business travel
Accessing difficult terrains
Transporting high value and perishable commodities
Achieves great speed and saving of time
Now affordable– competing with other modes
Unexpected growth in private sector
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Perspectives-airways
Infrastructure development in tenth plan
Modernization of metro airports
new metro airports
Approved plan for modernization of 48 other airports
Facilitation of customs for air cargo
100% FDI permitted
Liberalization of air service agreements
Objectives in 11th plan
Improve infrastructure
Encourage passenger and air cargo streams
Connectivity to NE
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PERSPECTIVES--airways
Traffic projections
13.5% CAGR in tenth plan for international stream of
passengers
21.8% CAGR in tenth plan for domestic stream of
passengers
Eleventh plan forecasts( BY 2011-12)
•
•
•
•
•
•
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15.9% international
19.9% domestic
540.4 lakh international
1513.16 lakh domestic
860.8 thousand tonnes international cargo
1822.7 thousand tonnes domestic cargo
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Evolution of logistics integration
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Extent of outsourcing of 3PL
As percentage of total logistics costs
Area
2008
2011-13
N.America
49
56
Europe
61
69
Latin
48
America
Asia Pacific 57
59
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58
Indian logistics industry
Indian GDP– 1 trillion dollars
GDP will grow at 5% over next ten years
Logistics costs– 14% of GDP
Will reduce to 10% of GDP in next ten years
Value of industry– 140 billion dollars
Transportation costs
40-45% of total logistics costs
Industry size 56 – 63 billion dollars
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Issues with approach paper
Why are financial targets for revenues not
highlighted?
Marginal increase in revenue per million
tonnes handled proposed, why?
Are we capable of spending the money?
Can we commercialize technology
innovations within the plan?
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Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
Policy level
Synergise, integrated plan for all modes
Allocate based on niche domain cost advantage based
on resource cost
Identify gaps between optimal and actual modal mix for
each commodity
Link transport demand to land use. Environmental
issues
Focus on accessibility, mobility, quality of life,
economic development
Resource Cost = (Economic Cost + Social Cost) =
(Financial Cost * Shadow Price Factor + Social Cost)
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Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
MODE WIS E TRAFFIC IN MILLION TONNE S
AND PE RC E NTAG E S HARE IN TOTAL TRAFFIC
T OT A L
O R IG IN A T IN G
IN T E R
R E G IO N A L
T R A F F IC
( M illio n
T o nne s )
YE AR
195051
197879
198687
82.2
283.4
C OAS TAL
RAILWAYS HIG HWAYS S HIPPING AIRLINE S
73.2
-89%
184.7
-65%
255.4
-53%
768.72
484.9
2555.4
(2386.9
8 for
-30.08%
20074
08 Modes )
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PIPE LINE S
IWT
NA
NA
NA
9
-11%
95.6
-34%
224
-46%
1558.87
NA
3.1
-1%
5.5
-1%
59.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.28
NA
113.5
NA
54.88
-61.01%
-2.31%
-0.01%
-4.44%
-2.15%
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Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
C O MMO DITY WIS E MO DAL PERFO RMANC E DURING BAS E YEAR (2007-08)
C O AS TAL
%AG E
RAIL
RO AD
S HIPPING
AIRWAYS
TO TAL
S HARE O F
TO NNES
TO NNES
TO NNES
TO NNES
TO NNES
MAJ O R
C O MMO DITY
('000)
('000)
('000)
('000)
('000)
C O MMO DITI
C oal
331768
68352
15247
0
415367
17.4
Foodgrains *
37651
122685
0
0
160336
6.72
Iron & S teel
27314
107177
0
0
134491
5.63
Iron O re
121799
23296
9590
0
154685
6.48
PO L Products (Liquid)
35129
128138
26296
0
189563
7.94
Limestone &
Dolomite
13694
6152
0
0
19846
0.83
C ement
78830
75981
3046
0
157857
6.61
Fertilizers
36382
18189
0
0
54571
2.29
Miscellaneous /O thers
22293
201499
3181
283
227256
9.52
TO TAL O F 9
C O MMO DITIES
704860
751469
57360
283
1513972
TO TAL O F 52
C O MMO DITIES
768716
1558875
59101
283
2386976
% AG E S HARE O F ABVE 9 C O MMO DITIES IN TO TAL 52
63.43
RAIL & RO AD S HARE IN
TO TAL MO VEMENT O F
RAIL
46.56%
RO AD
49.64%
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Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
MO DAL S HARE
SN
1
2
5
C O MMO DITY
Parcels, Misc, O thers
PO L Products (Liquid)
Building Materials (Bricks/
Earth/S and/S tone/C hips, etc.)
Iron & S teel (All types)
Provisions &
Household G oods
6
7
8
9
C ement/C ement S tructures
Fruits & Vegetables
C oal
C ontainers (Load or empty)
3
4
TO TAL
MILLIO N
TO NNES
227.17
189.56
RO AD
MILLIO N
% OF
TO NNES
TO TAL
201.5
88.7
128.14
67.6
RAIL
MILLIO N
% OF
TO NNES
TO TAL
22.29
9.81
35.13
18.53
121.13
134.49
116.08
107.18
95.83
79.69
5.05
27.31
4.17
20.31
80.93
80.75
99.78
0.19
0.23
157.86
71.81
415.37
85.44
75.98
69.93
68.35
56.6
48.13
97.38
16.46
66.25
78.83
1.89
331.77
27.09
49.94
2.63
79.87
31.71
S UB-TO TAL
TO TAL:
1483.76
904.51
60.96
529.55
35.69
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All C ommodities, All Modes
2386.97
37.89
64
22.19
Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
SN
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
UNIT EC ONOMIC C OS TS FOR THE 10 C OMMODITIES
Unit: RUPEES /TKM
PLAIN S EC TION
GHAT S EC TION
DIES EL
ELEC TRIC
DIES EL
ELEC TRIC
ELEMENTS
SL
DL
SL
DL
SL
DL
SL
DL
FOODGRAIN
0.63
0.59
0.53
0.52
0.98
0.91
0.8
0.74
FRUITS & VEGETABLE
0.65
0.61
0.55
0.53
1
0.93
0.83
0.76
C OAL
0.68
0.64
0.57
0.55
1.04
0.96
0.85
0.78
FERTILIS ERS
0.65
0.62
0.55
0.54
1
0.93
0.82
0.76
S UGAR
0.63
0.59
0.52
0.51
0.97
0.9
0.8
0.74
POL
0.74
0.7
0.62
0.6
1.15
1.06
0.94
0.86
C EMENT
0.67
0.64
0.57
0.56
1.02
0.95
0.84
0.78
LIVES TOC KS
1.56
1.47
1.3
1.27
2.44
2.26
2
1.84
IRON & S TEEL PROD.
0.69
0.65
0.57
0.55
1.08
1
0.88
0.8
C ONTAINER
0.8
0.76
0.67
0.66
1.23
1.15
1.02
0.94
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Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
S EC TIONAL EC ONOMIC C OS TS FOR MOVEMENT OF PAS S ENGERS
DES C RIPTION
METRO C ITY
TO METRO C ITY
METRO C ITY
TO MOFUS S IL C ITY
OC C U-PANC Y
100%
76%
Actual
100%
76%
Actual
100%
76%
Actual
MAIL/EXPRES S
DS L- DS L- ELC SL
DL
SL
0.32
0.41
0.39
0.31
0.39
0.37
0.27
0.34
0.32
0.31
0.39
0.37
0.29
0.37
0.35
0.26
0.32
0.31
0.28
0.36
0.34
0.27
0.34
0.33
0.24
0.29
0.28
PLAIN S EC TION
GRADIENT S EC TION
ORDINARY S ERVIC ES
MAIL/EXPRES S ORDINARY
ELC - DS L- DS L- ELC - ELC - DS L- ELC - DS L- ELC DL
SL
DL
SL
DL
SL
DL
SL
DL
UNITS : Rs. Per Passenger Kilometer
0.28 0.26 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.36 0.32
0.3
0.27
0.35 0.34 0.32
0.3
0.29 0.46 0.41 0.38 0.34
0.34
0.3
0.29 0.37 0.26 0.44 0.39 0.33 0.31
0.27 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.34 0.31 0.28 0.26
0.33 0.32 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.33
0.32 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.41 0.37 0.32 0.29
0.23 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.24
0.3
0.27 0.31 0.28
0.29 0.35 0.34
0.3
0.3
0.38 0.34
0.4
0.35
0.28 0.31
0.3
0.28 0.27 0.36 0.32 0.35 0.32
MOFUS S IL C ITY TO
MOFUS S IL C ITY
Note:
Actual Occupancy Ratio Formulae = (Passenger KMs/Vehicle KMs)X (2/C oach C apacity)
Actual Occupancy Ratio For M/E trains = 79%
Actual Occupancy Ratio For Ordinary S ervices = 86%
DS L: Diesel, ELC : Electric, S L: S ingle Line, DL: Double Line
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Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
DIS TANC E S LAB WIS E VE HIC LE OPE R ATING C OS T (E C ONOMIC )
C OMMODITY G R OUP - Normal (S ug ar, Wheat, Fertilis er E tc .)
(Pais e Per Tonne-Km)
HIG HWAY
UP TO
201-400 401-600 601-800
8011001SN
C ODE *
200 KM
KM
KM
KM
1000 KM 1500 KM
1
111
140
124.6
119.6
114.7
113.6
111.1
2
112
126.8
113.7
109.4
105.2
104.2
102.2
3
114
117.9
105.7
101.8
97.8
96.9
95
4
115
114.9
103
99.2
95.3
94.5
92.6
5
116
133.4
119.2
114.5
109.9
108.9
106.7
6
121
148.4
132.8
127.7
122.7
121.5
119.1
7
122
134.4
121.2
116.8
112.5
111.5
109.5
8
124
124.8
112.7
108.7
104.7
103.8
102
9
125
121.6
109.8
105.9
102
101.1
99.4
10
126
141.4
127
122.3
117.6
116.5
114.3
11
131
196.4
175.6
168.8
162
160.5
157.3
12
132
166.4
149.5
144.1
138.7
137.3
135
13
136
177.9
160.1
154.3
148.6
147.3
144.5
14
134
124.8
112.7
108.7
104.7
103.8
102
15
135
121.6
109.8
105.9
102
101.1
99.4
* TE R R AIN TYPE : Plain=1, R olling =2, Hilly=3
R OAD TYPE : NH=1, S tate Hig hway=2, MD
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NO. OF LANE S : S L=1, DL=2, 4L=4, IL=5, 4L E xpres s Way=6
Total transport system study—
RITES 2008-09--findings
ECONOMIC COST OF HIGHWAYS PASSENGER MOVEMENT
MOVEMENT TYPE 100
Metro City to
Metro City
55.46
Metro City to
Moffusil Town
50.24
Moffusil Town to
Moffusil Town
51.79
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200
TRIP LENGTH (KM) (RS./PASSENGER)
250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
71.89 88.31 104.74 121.17 137.6 154.03 170.46 186.88 203.31 219.74 236.17
67.15 84.06 100.97 117.87 134.78 151.69 168.59 185.5 202.41 219.32 236.22
72.55 93.32 114.08 134.85 155.62 176.38 197.15 217.91 238.68 259.44 280.21
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Issues with approach paper
Pricing is critical– how do we reconcile our
costing systems?
Why is man power exploitation not a key area?
Are we in business of infrastructure provision or
service provision or both?
Why are we not involved in bharat nirman?
Training investment for new centres. what skills or
areas to be covered?
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Section 80-IA of income tax act
Explanation.-For the purposes of this clause, "infrastructure facility"
means,(a) a road including toll road, a bridge or a rail system;
(b) a highway project including housing or other activities being an
integral part of the highway project; and
(c) a water supply project, water treatment system, irrigation project,
sanitation and sewerage system or solid waste management system;
(d) a port, airport, inland waterway or inland port;
(ii) any undertaking which has started or starts providing
telecommunication services whether basic or cellular, including radio
paging, domestic satellite service, network of trunking, broadband
network and internet services on or after the 1st day of April, 1995, but
on or before the 31st day of March, 2003;
(iii) any undertaking which develops, develops and operates or
maintains and operates an industrial park or special economic zone
notified by the Central Government in accordance with the scheme
framed and notified by that Government for the period beginning on the
1st day of April, 1997 and ending on the 31st day of March, 2006:
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Themes in 12 th plan
Describe the ‘big picture’—the forces
shaping India and the world, and the
implications of these
• Create ‘scenarios’, which describe
plausible, alternative outcomes of the
interplay of these forces, not numerical
predictions
Should go beneath them to find the
more fundamental issues of why
sufficient change is not happening in
these areas
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Themes in 12th plan
Some forces/themes suggested (should be
validated by the ‘scenario thinking process’)
• Demographics: its changing shape and
content, not just the numbers
• Opportunities for young women
• Neglected regions of the country
• Urbanization
• Climate change—in Indian context
• Water
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Themes in 12th plan
Implementation
• “I am seeing ‘sections’ and ‘words’ (in
plans) and not the ‘how’”
• An ‘enabling’ versus an
‘interventionist’ approach to
implementation
Need innovations in policies
‘Decentralize’ consultation process—go
to small towns
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THANK YOU
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