Transcript Document

Biofuels Development
Status and Potentials in
Major Countries
Michael Wang
Center for Transportation Research
Argonne National Laboratory
Oct. 10, 2006
A Complete, Robust Way Of Evaluating A Fuel’s Effects Is
To Compare the Fuel With Those To Be Displaced
2
Accurate Ethanol Energy Analysis Must Account
for Increased Productivity in Farming Over Time
0.65
?
Bushels/lb. Fertilizer
0.60
U.S. Corn Output Per Pound of Fertilizer
Has Risen by 70% in The Past 35 Years
0.55
Precision
farming, etc.?
0.50
0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Based on historical USDA data; results are 3-year moving averages
3
Improved Technology Has Reduced Energy Use and
Operating Costs in Corn Ethanol Plants
70,000
1980s
60,000
2000s
Btu/Gallon
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Wet Mill
Dry Mill
From Argonne’s discussions with ethanol plant designers, USDA data, and other reported data
4
The Type of Energy, As Well As the Amount of
Energy, Is important in Addressing Energy Effects of
Ethanol
3
Btu required for 1 Btu available at fuel pump
From Biomass
From Coal and Natural Gas
2.5
From Petroleum
2
1.5
1
Fossil Btu = 1.23
Petroleum Btu = 1.1
Energy
in the
Fuel
Fossil Btu = 0.74
Fossil Btu < 0.1
0.5
Petroleum Btu = 0.1
Petroleum Btu = 0.1
0
Gasoline
Corn Ethanol
Cellulosic Ethanol
5
Most Recent Studies Show Positive Net
Energy Balance for Corn Ethanol
60,000
40,000
Lorenz&Morris
Wang et al.
20,000
Net Energy Value (Btu/gallon)
Marland&Turhollow
0
-20,000
Agri. Canada
Shapouri et al.
NR Canada
Shapouri et al.
Wang
Kim &Dale
Graboski
Kim &Dale
Delucchi
Ho
Weinblatt et al.
Keeney&DeLuca
Pim entel
Pim entel
Pim entel
Pim entel
&Patzek
-40,000
Patzek
-60,000
-80,000
Cham bers et al.
-100,000
-120,000
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol
6
Though Electricity Requires a Large Amount of
Fossil Energy Input, There Is No Substitute
NG
Coal
Coal Mining
Diesel Fuel
Electricity
NG
NG
Electricity
Coal
Transportation
NG
Recovery
Uranium
LPG,
NGLs
NG
Processing
Uranium Ore
Recovery
NG
Transmission
Diesel Fuel
Electricity
NG
Uranium Ore
Transportation
Diesel
Fuel
NG
Electricity
Petroleum
Uranium
Enrichment
Uranium Fuel
Transportation
Residual Oil
Diesel
NG
Fuel
Electricity
Petroleum
Recovery
Petroleum
Transportation
Refinery Gas
NG
Coal
Electricity
Petroleum
Refinery
Residual Oil
Diesel Fuel
NG
Electricity
Residual Oil
Transportation
Other
Petroleum
Products
Electricity Generation
Electricity Transmission
and Distribution (8% loss)
U.S. Electricity Generation:
2.34 mm Btu Fossil Energy Input
1 mm Btu of Electricity
at Wall Outlets
7
Energy in Different Fuels
Can Have Very Different Qualities
Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) =
energy in fuel/fossil energy input
10.31
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.36
0.5
0.98
0.81
0.45
0.0
Cell. EtOH
Corn EtOH
Coal
Gasoline
Electricity
8
The Role of Biofuels Is Affected by Land
Availability and Oil Use in Individual Countries
Country
Land
Area,103
km2
USA
China
Japan
Germany
India
Canada
Brazil
France
The U.K.
Spain
Thailand
Australia
Pakistan
Sweden
9,161
9,326
374
349
2,973
9,093
8,457
545
241
499
511
7,617
778
410
Population, Arable Land,
Million
103 km2
296
1,306
127
82
1,080
32
186
60
60
40
65
20
162
9
1,752
1,436
46
118
1,617
451
588
183
57
130
150
499
216
27
Arable Land
km2
per 103 people
5.92
1.10
0.36
1.44
1.50
14.09
3.16
3.05
0.95
3.25
2.31
24.95
1.33
3.00
Oil Use, mil.
barrels a
day
20.0
6.3
5.6
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
1.7
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.4
0.4
9
Intermediate Products Can Be Produced from
Various Feedstocks via Various Technologies
10
Bio-Fuels Can Be Produced from Intermediate
Products with Various Technologies
11
Feedstocks for Biofuel Production Vary
Among Countries
 Grain starch to ethanol
– Corn in U.S., China, Canada
– Wheat in Europe, Australia, and Canada
 Sugar crops to ethanol
– Sugarcane in Brazil, India, and Thailand
– Sugar beets in Europe
 Cellulosic biomass to ethanol
– Managed biomass such as trees and grass
– Crop residues such as corn stover, wheat straw, rice straw, sugarcane
bagasse
– Forest wastes
– Municipal solid waste
 Oilseed crops to biodiesel
– Soybeans in U.S.
– Rapeseeds in Europe
– Palm oil and other tropical oilseed crops in tropical countries
– Waste cooking oil
– Animal fats
12
Liquid Biofuels Can Be Used in Vehicles
at Low- or High-Level Blends
 Low-level blends of ethanol/gasoline can be used in gasoline
vehicles without vehicle modifications
– E5 in Canada and Australia
– E3 in Japan
– E6-E10 in U.S.
– E10 in China and Thailand
– E25 in Brazil
 Low-level and high-level blends of biodiesel/diesel can be
used in diesel vehicles without vehicle modifications
– B2-B20 in different countries
– B100 could be used
 Flexible-fuel vehicles (FFVs) for E0-E85 require vehicle
modifications
13
U.S. Corn Ethanol:
No.1 Ethanol Consumption Country
with 4.2 billion gallons in 2005
14
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced
Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue
8000
2005 Energy Bill
requirement
Actual Use
7000
Millions of gallons/Year
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0
Source: Renewable Fuels Association
15
A Large Number of E85 FFVs Are in U.S. Fleet
–
–
–
Obtain fuel economy credits since 1993
>5 million cars and trucks in use in 2005
But they are powered virtually with gasoline
2004 U.S. Fleet Alternative Fuels
Vehicles
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
LPG
CNG
LNG
M85
E85
Fuel
16
General Motors Corporation’s E85 FFV
Vehicle Production for U.S.
GM E85 FFV Vehicle Production
600
Volume in Thousands
500
Approx. 1.5 Million E85 FFV Trucks
produced through 2005 MY
Trucks
Cars
400
Forecasted E85 production includes
Forecast
Production
2.2 Million more cars and trucks
Approx. 1,500,000
E85 FFV Trucks
produced through
2005 MY
300
200
100
Approximately 3.7 Million E85 FFV Cars and Trucks produced through 2010 MY
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Model Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
17
Brazilian Sugarcane Ethanol:
No.2 Ethanol Consumption Country
with ~4 Billion Gallons in 2005
18
Brazil Is the Largest Sugarcane Producing
Country
Humid equatorial
Dry winter/humid summer tropical
Semi-arid tropical
Humid coastal
Humid subtropical
19
Brazil Has the Lowest Production Cost
for Sugar
1400
Sugar Production Cost
687
Estimated Cost (US$/Ton in Dec/00)
378
Sugar Cane
174
204
Brazil
(CS)
Australia
241
248
283
284
South
Africa
India
Cuba
Thailand
440
424
USA
China
483
100
Production
22,7
5,4
(Mt) 2002
2,
6
19,0
2,3
6,6
5,
1
France
7,3
10,3
England
1,5
1,5
Italy
Japan
0,
9
Production costs in Brazil reached 100 US$/ton in 2005
From Rainach (2006)
20
Brazil’s Low Sugar Production Cost Is
Due to a Combination of Factors
cost (US$/Ton)
Cuba
India
Australia
Brazil
283
248
204
100
WATER
LIGHT - TEMPERATURE
USABLE LAND
LABOR COST
SCALE OF PRODUCTION
GENETICS
AGRICULTURAL
TECHNOLOGY
STRONG
From Rainach (2006)
WEAK
21
Brazil Now Uses About 4 Billion Gallons
of Sugarcane Ethanol A Year
22
Yield of EtOH/Ha Has Increased Three Times in the
Last 25 Years to 6,000 L/Ha (1,585 gal/Ha)
l/ha
Rendimento Agroindustrial – Brasil
(em litros de álcool hidratado equivalente por hectare)
6500
6000
5931
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
+3,77% aa em 29 anos
2024
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
2000
1500
08 Nov 2005
From Rainach (2006)
Fonte: Datagro
Nastari / Datagro @ Proálcool 30 anos
11
23
Ethanol Cost Has Been Reduced Greatly; It Is
Now Lower Than That of Gasoline
(2004) US$ / GJ
100
1980
2004
1986
10
1990
2002
1995
1999
1
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Produção acumulada de etanol (milhares de m3 )
Preço do etanol no Brasil
Goldenberg, 2005
250000
300000
Preço da gasolina em Rotterdam
24
In Brazil, 70% of All New Cars Sold
Now Are FFVs
100%
3%
26%
80%
2%
60%
40%
69%
20%
0%
jan/03
abr/03
jul/03
out/03
jan/04
Flex (Ethanol or gasoline)
abr/04
jul/04
out/04
Ethanol (Pure)
jan/05
abr/05
Gasoline
jul/05
out/05
Diesel
25
Chinese Corn Ethanol:
No.3 Ethanol Consumption Country
with ~340 Million Gallons in 2005
26
Four Fuel Ethanol Plants in China Produce 340
Million Gallons of EtOH a Year from Grains
Company
Location
Annual
Production in
tonnes
Jilin Fuel Ethanol Co., Ltd
Jilin City, Jilin Province
300,000
Heilongjiang China Resources
Corporation
Zhaodong City,
Heilongjiang Province
100,000
Henan Tianguan Group
Nanyang City, Henan
Provice
300,000
Anhui BBCA Biochemical
Bufeng City, Anhui
Province
320,000
27
Supply of Grain-Based Ethanol in the U.S.
and China May Be Limited
Population (in million)
Gasoline market: billion gallons
Diesel market: billion gallons
Corn ethanol production: billion
gallon
Corn production: million tons
Arable land: million hectares
U.S.
296
140
50
4.2
China
1306
16
24
0.3
332
186
128
130
28
U.S. Biodiesel Production
29
U.S. Biodiesel Production Has Increased
Dramatically and Will Continue to Do So
30
U.S. Biodiesel Plant Location
31
Incentives and Policies Have Played a
Major Role in Biofuel Use
 U.S.
– $0.51/gallon incentive for ethanol
– $1.00/gallon incentive for biodiesel
– The 2005 Energy Policy Act establishes renewable
fuel standards
 Brazil
– In early years, government had financial incentives
– But sugarcane ethanol is now self-sustaining
economically
 China
– Grain ethanol producers receive RMB 1,200/tonne
of ethanol
32
Potential Adverse Effects of LargeScale Biofuel Production
Land availability in individual countries
Food vs. fuel debate
Potential soil effects: erosion, carbon depletion,
etc.
Water pollution by nitrate from intensive farming
Water resource requirements
Ecological effects of land cultivation for biofuel
production
33