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Set America Free 101 Anne Korin Institute for the Analysis of Global Security http://www.iags.org Is Non-OPEC Supply the Solution? Following 9/11 and in light of the rise of radical Islam many have called for reduction of the dependency on Middle East oil. Non-OPEC countries in Africa and Former Soviet Union have limited reserves and are running a marathon at a sprint pace. Both regions will be out of the running by 2025. The rise of radical Islam and growing corruption in the Caspian region and in Africa means these areas harbor the same risks we face in the Middle East. OPEC's growing control of global oil reserves Share of reserves 100% Non-OPEC 90% OPEC 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% "We should not deceive ourselves, as long as we are dependent on oil to the degree that we are, that there is a substitute for the Middle East [as a source of oil] .. Russia sells all of its oil. Over time, non-OPEC oil will be depleted and we will become more dependent on oil from the Middle East.” Former Energy Secretary James Schlesinger 10% 0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year 2025 2030 2035 2040 History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2002, DOE/EIA-0384(2002) (Washington, DC, October 2003). Projections: Table A11. We must get beyond CAFE The Oil Gap in the Transportation Sector (Source: US Dep. Of Energy) Mil barrels/ day 25 No action taken 7% CAFE increase 20% CAFE increase U.S. consumption 20 40% CAFE increase 60% CAFE increase 15 U.S. production including ANWR 10 5 U.S. production 0 70's 80's 90's 00's 10's 20's 30's 40's 50's CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency = average mpg The ABCs of Setting America Free Fuel diversification Real world solutions Existing infrastructure Environmentally sensible choices Domestic resource utilization Optimal energy use Maintenance of the American way of life miles per gallon of GAS, not miles per BTU We have choice in every aspect of our lives... ...but not when it comes to transportation fuel Energy Security through fuel choice Ethanol Biomass Electricity Coal Natural gas Nuclear Renewables P-Series Methanol Flexible fuel vehicles (FFV) stretch the gallon FFV's are designed to operate on alcohol (ethanol, methanol..), on gasoline, or on any mixture of the two. Nearly four million FFV's have been manufactured since 1996. The marginal cost of FFV is less than $150. Liquid Phase Methanol (LPMEOH) - Clean Coal to Fuel at under 50 cents a gallon It’s time to stop wasting our waste. Electricity is a domestically generated transportation fuel! A multi fuel vehicle Methanol Ethanol Gasoline P-Series Electricity Bottom line: System of Systems PHEV + FFV fueled with 80% alcohol and 20% gasoline = 400-500 miles per gallon of gasoline! If by 2025, all cars on the road are hybrids and half are plug-in hybrid vehicles, U.S. oil imports would drop by 8 million barrels per day (mbd). Today, the U.S imports 10 mbd and it is projected to import almost 20 mbd by 2025. If all of these cars were also FFV, U.S. oil imports would drop by as much as 12 mbd. It’s time to Set America Free http://www.iags.org Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) Think of them as electric vehicles with an auxiliary fuel tank, or “souped-up hybrids.” All electric range for a portion of the daily driving cycle. Night time charging means significantly lower fuel cost. When the charge is used up, the car automatically. keeps running on the fuel in the fuel tank. Performance equal to that of current vehicles. Half of all cars on the road travel a total of 20 miles per day or less Depending on the battery size, the first 20-60 miles of driving in a PHEV would be essentially all electric Greatly reduced annual gasoline consumption Compare the fuel consumption of a PHEV full size SUV to that of a conventional compact sedan!