Transcript Experience and plan of a pro

The Networked Communications Environment
“Low Internet Diffusion in Africa”
Alex Gakuru
ICT Consumers Association of Kenya
[email protected]
July, 17 2007
1 October,
2 0 0 6
The World at Night
"The people that compiled the photo see all the places that are rich enough to have
bright city lights; I see the places where those of us that work in technology aren't
done yet. A lot of my work has to do with making the Internet work there too."
Fred Baker- Internet Society. http://www.isoc.org
July, 17 2007
Introduction
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Infrastructure & Hardware
Political Environment
Regulatory Environment
Economics and markets
Technology Perspectives
Submarine Fibre Cables
July, 17 2007
Infrastructure & Hardware
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Infrastructure Ownership and Access
High Infrastructure Access Costs
Incumbents “Nationalism” Protection
Dilapidated/Disproportionate Invest.
New Entrants Rebuilding Afresh
Co-location Challenges/ Incentives
Hardware Costs (PCs, Routers, Mobile…)
Network & Hardware/ Driving Software
Economic cost of slow Internet -Urgent
July, 17 2007
Political Environment
• Dictators Fear “BAD” new Transparent Internet
1."Access to computers should be unlimited and total.“
2 "All information should be free.“
3."Mistrust authority - promote decentralization.“
4."You can create art and beauty on a computer."
5."Computers can change your life for the better."
• Negotiating the Net in Africa -Univ. of Maryland
• In-depth analyses of Internet diffusion (Tanzania,
Kenya ,Rwanda, Ghana, South Africa, Guinea Bissau)
• Have/Forced to Change “Political Culture”
• Policy/implementation disconnects deliberate?
July, 17 2007
Regulatory Environment
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Regulators or “Independent” Licensors?
High License “Revenues” vs. “Facilitative”
Legislative Information Challenges
Role of Parliamentary “ICT” Committees
(Absent) Internet Diffusion Reviews
High-Level Internet Leaderships
Kenya Case Study – Kibaki directives
BIG Q: To insist on “Universal Access” or Not?
Absent elec. justified?(Convenient Excuse?)
Poverty Divide: Internet for the Affluent
July, 17 2007
Regulatory Environment
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Static to Dynamic regulatory approach shifts
Stop over protecting unprofitable models
Enhance CS/Professional Assoc. collaboration
Support community-based infrastructure
Encourage non-profit telcos (“FON”s Free ISM)
Conduct Internet Users Demand and Supply std
Hold Legislators Internet capacity building w/sps
Most of all, strengthen regulator independence
Interconnection “profits” unreal cost relation
July, 17 2007
Economics and Markets
• Enter Innovative “Em. Markets” Investors
• Align business themes > local aspirations
– Former Monopolies
– Local Business leaders
– National Policies/Priorities ….
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Find overwhelming locked-up demand
Offer Localised products and services
Cling to new-found revenue jewels
Africa’s Oligopolies ( Also seen in Mexico )
Barbarians at Kenya’s Gate
“Measured” liberalise–instant benefits
July, 17 2007
Economics and Markets
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Blame them for exploiting Bus. opportunity? NO!
Form strange bedfellows – “midnight cartels”
Problem–Exposes vulnerable consumers/users
Need to Establish/Improve Consumer Protection
Consumer Protection -David vs. Goliath,Globally
Governments happy with Exchequer Contribution
Daily Telcos Rev vs eco. incomes/donor funds
injection  (mobbing up hard-earned incomes high
tariffs)
• Internet (and telecom) causing net poverty???
• Argue high tariffs due infrt. invest.
July, 17 2007
Internet Users
• INTERNET USERS TODAY (17 Jul 2007)
1,154,358,778 http://www.internetworldstats.com/
July, 17 2007
Nurture Flourishing Internet
• It took radio 38 years to get a market of 50
million people participating;
• TV took 13 years to reach 50 million
• Once the Internet was open to the general
public, the Internet made to the 50 million person
audience in just 4 years
• Overwhelming demand exists,
• Embrace internet else remain perpetually poor
• Will and desire of the people unmet
• New Connectivity Models Complement supply
• “Old-School” business ecosystem survival?
July, 17 2007
Technological Dimensions
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Challenged users- human fear of the unknown (porn,
privacy,computes>consumer education)
Early Adapters Exclusive “Trade Secrets”
African IXPs History and passive govt support
Tech Skills Challenges(KENIC, AFNOG, AfriNIC,
ISOC,
Converge Civil Society Internet Advocacy, (e.g. Hunan
Rights, beyond “IG”
Any African Investments on Internet R&D? CSIRO Aus.
Highest 2.4bits/s/Hz (6 GiG/s point –to-point wireless
connection
Avoid digital dumps– Failed/obsolete tech/environment
July, 17 2007
Technological Dimensions
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Avoid digital dumps– Failed/obsolete tech/environment
Mesh Networking, P2PSIP, OLPC-Governments Position?
FOSS where Proprietary Software is prohibitive (Ubuntu)
Internet content development AND publishing challenges
Poor Awareness and Education
- Perhaps to retain market /segments
- Convergence Challenges
- Legal Environments/ Regulative Definitions
- Media Capacity Coverage Issues
- IT “Gurus” from out of this world
- African ICT Experts Hardly Publish
July, 17 2007
Fibre Eco-Politics
1. Internet bandwidth cartels (Shuttleworth urges telecoms
reform 24 February, 2006,
http://www.tectonic.co.za/view.php?id=888 )
2. “Cartels" as they existed unable to deliver effective and
affordable bandwidth to the continent -“Barbarians” interests
3. ADSL 128/32kbps- £70 pm (ke) 512/128 kbps £25/pm(uk)
4. Local ISPs 540% bandwidth mark-up – CCK Market Study
5. SAT3, EASSy, TEAMS, SEACOM, (Terrestrial Nat. Fibres)
6. Malaysia Multimedia Super Corridor - cost US$5.3 billion-KE?
7. Unless checked, fear private interest TEAMS => high costs
8. Africa’s hope pegged on Kenya’s TEAMS Fiber handling
9. Few other KE inspirations (Transition, Economy, FOI...)
10.Flourishing Gains and “comfortable” democracy?
July, 17 2007
Fibre Eco-Politics
1. TEAMS bandwidth pricing “new benchmark”
2. Managed transparently =>Potential to save Africa’s
bandwidth costs
3. SAT3 prices will go down upon TEAMS cheap bandwidth
4. VSAT to remain (Far Flung, Backup–Asia Breaks Dec 2006)
5. Terrestrial Fibre – “Open Access” mgmt by Ind Regulators
6. Last mile(540% markup ISPs?, Telcos, or Community UAs)
7. Community – driven last Mile initiatives benefits
1. Cost Recovery Basis ( non-profit)
2. Mobile VoIP – Nokia N95 WiFi Feature Crippling
3. Forster Competition (affordable Internet, and Voice)
4. Rural, Underserved (Equity, Basic Right to communicate)
5. Grassroots Skills Transfer – KE Community Fibre
July, 17 2007
Acknowledgements
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Fred Baker, ISOC (and NASA picture)
Dr. Mary Muiruri - University of Maryland
Prof. Tim Wu
Asia Times, New York Times
July, 17 2007