Transcript Geen diatitel - IEA Bioenergy

Scientific needs and market impacts of
securing sustainability of bioenergy
André Faaij
Copernicus Institute, Faculty of Science - Utrecht University
Task Leader IEA Task 40.
IEA Bioenergy ExCo65,
Nara, JAPAN
12 May – 14 May 2010
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Current main Shipping Lanes for
biomass and biofuels for energy
E. Europe &
Russia
W. Europe
Canada
Japan
USA
Ar
g
en
tin
a
Wood PelletsBrazil
Ethanol
Ethanol
S. Africa
Wood pellets
Palm Oil & Ag Residues
Veg. oils &
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biodiesel
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Malaysia &
Indonesia
Australia
A future vision on global
bioenergy…
250 Mha = 100 EJ
= 5% ag land + pasture
= 1/3 Brazil
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[GIRACT/Faaij, 2008]
Rapid food price increases ...
3-75% caused by biofuels, literature says
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Latest price developments ...; analysis?
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Agricultural land use!
• We need a lot more food (especially protein).
• We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land.
• Agriculture and livestock main threat for biodiversity
(today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of
GHG’s.
• Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s
poor in rural setting;
• Agricultural productivity is low on large parts of the
globe.
• Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such.
• Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for
unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).
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Contributors to land use
change…
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iLUC factors…
• Searchinger: 1
• Later global (macro-economic) analyses: 0.3
-> 0.2 -> 0.15…
• More detailed regional studies: depends
highly (Fully…) on rate of improvement in
agricultural and livestock management (e.g
Apola, et al. PNAS, 2010)
• This was also & already the case in Hoogwijk,
Smeets, REFUEL, etc. etc.
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Projections for biotrade?
• So far scarce (IEA Task 40 assessments…).
• Main efforts on 1st gen biofuels using CGE
models; generally developed for agricultural
markets (biofuel marginal factor).
• Lignocellulose and impact advanced
technologies on markets poorly covered:
IEA-ETP, 2008
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Understanding biomass resource
potentials requires integration of
many science arena’s
Pfff, it’s
complex…
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Bottlenecks (I): improve key
insights and data:
• Embed technological learning of
bioenergy systems properly in models
(production, supply and conversion
systems). [Bottom-up]
• Learning of agricultural and livestock
management (in relation to prices,
settings and policies). [Bottom-up]
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Bottlenecks (II): Biophiscal
models ~ environment:
• Water [regional level; bottom-up]
• Biodiversity (resolve methodological
issues; management options and
reference situations).
• Proper incorporation of residues and
wastes.
• Marginal and degraded lands [data!!!]
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Bottlenecks (III): modeling
frameworks:
• Integrate biophysical and macro-economic models
(partly tackled: IFPRI, UU/PBL/LEI - IMAGE/GTAP).
• Feedbacks prices (and policies) on learning and
intensification.
• New advanced scenario’s: policy driven, sustainability
incorporated.
–
–
–
–
Key additons:
2nd (+) generation options
Biomaterials
Non-agricultural lands (forest, marginal, degraded, etc.)
• Backed by concrete examples; model verification
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B1 2050
A1 2050
Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2005
Integrated assessment
modelling results (IMAGE)
B2 2050
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A2 2050
Limitations in
degraded land, protected areas and water
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Overall
Picture
Yes, biomass
can play a
significant
role in future
energy
supply
[Bioenergy
Revisited:
Dornburg et al.,
Energy &
Environmental
Science, 2010]
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1500
Global biomass potentials 2050…
1250
Assessment
and synthesis
of available
information
1000
EJ / Year
World
Energy
demand
(2050)
Technical
biomass
potential
(2050)
600
500
World energy demand (2008)
Sustainable
biomass
potential
(2050)
250
200
50
World biomass
World
biomass
demand
demand (2008)
(2050)
Agricultural productiv ity
improv ement
Crops w /o ex clusion
Crops w ith ex clusion
Surplus forestry
Forestry and
agriculture residues
Current world energy demand (500 EJ/year)
Current world biomass use (50 EJ/year)
[Bioenergy
Revisited:
Dornburg et al.,
Energy &
Environmental
Science, 2010]
Total world primary energy demand in 2050 in World Energy Assessment (600 - 1000 EJ/year)
M odelled biomass demand in 2050 as found in literature studies. (50 - 250 EJ/year)
Technical potential for biomass production in 2050 as found in literature studies. (50 - 1500 EJ/year).
Sustainable biomass potential in 2050 (200-500 EJ/year). Sustainable biomass potentials consist of: (i) residues from agriculture
and forestry; (ii) surplus forest material (net annual increment minus current harvest); (iii) energy crops, excluding areas with
moderately degraded soils and/or moderate water scarcity; (iv) additional energy crops grown in areas with moderately degraded
Copernicus
Institute water scarcity and (v) additional potential when agricultural productivity increases faster than historic
soils
and/or moderate
trends
thereby
producing more
food fromManagement
the same land area.
Sustainable
Development
and Innovation
Determining factors
biomass potentials
Issue/effect
Supply potential of biomass
Improvement agricultural management
Choice of crops
Food demands and human diet
Use of degraded land
Competition for water
Use of agricultural/forestry by-products
Protected area expansion
Water use efficiency
Climate change
Alternative protein chains
Demand for biomaterials
Importance
***
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***
***
**
**
**
**
**
*
demand
rece
Demand potential of biomass
Bio-energy demand versus supply
Cost of biomass supply
Learning in energy conversion
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Institutemechanism food-feed-fuel
Market
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Impact
po
supply a
rece
**
**
**
**
Good news on criteria frameworks
and frontline of debate:
• Debate has come to it’s senses a bit.
• Recognition that iLUC for biofuels alone is
inconsistent: it is about management of
land use.
• Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land
for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!.
• More attention for synergies (e.g.:
Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010,
GSB initiative, 2010)
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Overview and comparison
of initiatives to guarantee sustainability of bioenergy
Preliminary results: 67 initiatives (regulation + systems)
included
• All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or
• Various parts of the bioenergy value chain
Overview of amount of initiatives and certification systems included in review on biomass and bioenergy
certification (*substantially more systems exist).
3
11
20
IEA Task 40
17
16
Biomass and Bioenergy
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Biofuels
Forestry*
Agriculture*
Social*
Dam et al., RSER, 2010 (forthcoming)
overview and comparison
of sustainability certification schemes (2)
• 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of biofuels
• From which 17 are developing principles
IEA Task 40
17
18
16
14
12
11
11
11
10
10
8
7
7
6
6
4
4
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Regulation in
place*
Set of principles
(more than 1) in
development*
International
bodies
Market/NGOs
Government
Other regions
Europe
Worldwide
0
USA
2
Dam et al., RSER, 2010 (forthcoming)
Summary regulation European Commission:
Derived from the Provisional edition of the text adopted by the Parliament on 17-12-2008:
Article
Criterion
17.2
Full-chain GHG emission reduction >35% (increasing
over time)
17.3
Exclusion of lands with high biodiversity value
17.4
Exclusion of lands with high carbon stock that have
recently been converted into e.g. cropland
17.5
Exclusion of peat land unless proven that drainage of
previously un drained soil is not involved
17.6
Condition of good agricultural practice (EU)
17.7
Obligation to the Commission to report on soil, water and
air impacts and social impacts in regions that are a
significant source of feedstock
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European Commission and Meta-standard
Approach:
• European Commission (and also Netherlands,
others) will follow meta-standard approach
• Benchmarking of systems that meet requirements
• Ongoing process for coming years (review in 2014)
Regulation European Commission
Forestry
systems
Agricultural
systems
RTRS
Bioenergy systems
RSPO
NTA-8080
FSC
Copernicus Institute
PEFC
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
BSI
ISCC
Etc.
The bad news on frameworks:
• The overview of 67 initiatives shows that
concerns in various parts of the world are
focused on food security and on the socioeconomic impacts of bioenergy production.
Strikingly, these concerns are generally not
included in the existing initiatives.
• The overview shows a strong proliferation of
standards and, consequently, the risk for
confusion in the market, abuse and
“shopping” of standards.
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Dam et al., RSER, 2010 (forthcoming)
Macro-meso-micro level
Examples are: Impacts of Biodiversity, water, socio-economic impacts…
Micro scale
Agrobiodiversity
Meso scale:
Ecological services,
Agroecolocial areas
Macro scale:
Genetic diversity species in the world
Key: Copernicus
Sustainability
performance on various levels is influenced by external and
Institute
Sustainable
Development and
Innovation
Management
internal
factors
and
performance
Operationalisation of sustainability criteria
Criteria
deforestation
competition with
food production
land
availability
Impact
biodiversity
soil erosion
yield
quantity
costs
cost supply
curve
fresh water
nutrient leaching
pollution from
chemicals
employment
child labour
wages
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crop
management
system
[Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy 2010]
Cost supply curve
Ukraine with sustainability demands
7,0
reference scenario
wages
6,0
child labour
€ GJ-1
5,0
education
health care
4,0
pesticide use
nutrient losses
3,0
soil erosion
biodiversity - loose
2,0
biodiversity - strict
1,0
0
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500
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
PJ
1.000
1.500
[Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy 2010]
Argentina; example
full impact analysis
Different scenario’s
for land-use
and agricultural
management
Compares soybean
(biodiesel) to
switchgrass (pellets)
Focus on more
marginal area in one
province (La Pampa)
Van Dam et al., 2009 (forthcoming)
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Follows main
principles of Cramer
framework
Van Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 2009
Relative sustainability performance switchgrass
and soybean bioenergy chain
Switchgrass bioenergy chain
Principles
CUR
A
Soybean bioenergy chain
B
C
CUR
A
B
C
S
mS
S
mS
S
mS
S
mS
S
mS
S
mS
S
mS
S
mS
Reference land- use
C
D
C
D
G
D
C
D
C
D
C
D
G
D
C
D
Soil carbon balance
++
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
0
--
0
--
--
--
0
-
GHG balance
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
+
++
+
+
0
++
+
- Change in land-use
≈0+
≈0+
≈0+
≈0+
≈0+
≈0+
≈0+
≈0+
≈0-
≈0-
≈0-
≈0-
≈0-
≈0-
≈0-
≈0-
- Rise land prices
0
0
-
0
+
0
+
0
0
0
-
-
0
0
-
-
- Rise food prices
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
≈0
Biodiversity
+
0
+
0
+
0
+
0
0
-
0
-
-
-
0
-
Land-use change
Soil quality and quantity
Soil erosion
++
++
++
++
-
++
+
++
0
-
0
-
--
++
0
++
Soil nutrients
≈++
≈+
≈++
≈+
≈+
≈+
≈++
≈+
≈0/-
≈--
≈0
≈--
≈--
≈--
≈0
≈-
Water quality and quantity
- Water quality
++
+
++
+
-
+
++
+
0
--
0
--
--
--
0
--
- Water quantity
≈ 0+
≈ 0-
≈ 0+
≈ 0-
≈ 0+
≈0
≈ 0+
≈0
≈0
≈ 0-
≈0
≈ 0-
≈ 0+
≈ 0-
≈ 0+
≈ 0-
Air quality
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Local prosperity
++
+
++
+
++
+
++
+
+
0
+
0
+
0
+
0
Social well-being
0
0
0
0
+
+
+
+
0
0
0
0
+
+
+
+
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Van Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable
Energy Reviews, 2009
Negative vision, (ahead of
IPCC- SRREN…)
Low biomass scenario
Largely follows A2
SRES scenario
conditions, assuming
limited policies,
slow technological
progress in both the
energy sector and
agriculture, profound
differences in
development remain
between OECD and
DC’s.
High fossil fuel prices
expected due to high demand
and limited innovation,
which pushes demand for
biofuels for energy security
perspective
Increased biomass demand
directly affects food markets
Increased biomass demand partly
covered by residues and wastes,
partly by annual crops.
Total contribution of bioenergy
about 100 EJ before 2050.
Additional crop demand leads to
significant iLUC effects and
impacts on biodiversity.
Overall increased food prices
linked to high oil prices.
Limited net GHG benefits.
Socio-economic benefits suboptimal.
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Positive vision (ahead of
IPCC- SRREN…)
Storyline
Key preconditions
Key impacts
High biomass scenario
Largely
follows
A1/B1
SRES
scenario
conditions,
Assumes:
well working sustainability
frameworks and strong
policies
well developed bioenergy
markets
progressive technology
development (biorefineries,
new generation biofuels,
successful deployment of
degraded lands.
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Energy price (notably oil) development is moderated
due to strong increase supply of biomass and biofuels.
Some 300 EJ of bioenergy delivered before 2050; 35%
residues and wastes, 25% from marginal/degraded
lands (500 Mha), 40% from arable and pasture lands
300 Mha).
Conflicts between food and fuel largely avoided due to
strong land-use planning and aligning of bioenergy
production capacity with efficiency increases in
agriculture and livestock management.
Positive impacts with respect to soil quality and soil
carbon, negative biodiversity impacts minimised due to
diverse and mixed cropping systems.
Final Remarks
• Key parameters (land-use, management system, selected
crop) define sustainability.
• This makes it possible to steer sustainability in regions
with proper biobased chains and governance.
• Sustainability frameworks both a barrier and an
opportunity for trade…
• …the only acceptable way forward, but harmonization and
new governance models a priority.
• Analyses of impacts on market development and trade
require (much more) sophisticated tools.
• But these are being developed (IEA Task 40 priority)…
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Thanks for your attention
For more information:
www.bioenergytrade.org
E-mail: [email protected]
key References:
• Dornburg et al.,2010, (Energy & Environmental Science)
• Hoogwijk et al., 2005 & 2009, (Biomass & Bioenergy)
• Van Dam et al., 2008, (Biomass & Bioenergy)
• Wicke et al., 2008, (Biomass & Bioenergy)
• Smeets et al., 2010 (Biomass & Bioenergy)
• Wicke et al., 2010 (Land use policy; forthcoming)
• Wicke et al., 2009 (Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews)
• Van Dam et al., 2009 (Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews)
• Van Dam et al., 2010 (Forthcoming: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews)
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