Transcript Potential of and constraints to the rice Green Revolution

Is Mozambique on the eve of rice
Green Revolution? A case study of
the Chokwe irrigation scheme
Kei Kajisa (IRRI & FASID)
Ellen Payongyong (Michigan State Univ.)
Introduction (1)
• The importance of rice in Moz. has been
increasing rapidly.
600
•Rapid
consumption
growth
500
1000 ton
400
Production
300
Consumption
200
•Rapid increase
in rice imports
•Increasing
foreign
exchange
expenditure
100
0
60
19
•Stagnated
production
growth
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
Year
90
19
95
19
00
20
05
20
Introduction (2)
2
180
1.8
160
1.6
140
1.4
120
1.2
100
1
80
0.8
60
0.6
40
0.4
20
0.2
Year
20
05
20
00
19
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
0
19
65
0
•Stagnated area
expansion after
the completion of
re-settlement.
ton/ha
200
19
60
1000 ha
• Why has production stagnated since
2000?
Area harvested
Paddy yield
•Stagnated rice
yield at 1 t/ha.
Introduction (3)
• Moz. needs an appropriate rice development
strategy.
• Dominant ecosystem in Moz.
– 61% lowland wet condition, upland dry condition is
minor (Balasubramaninan et al., 2007)
• Seeking an Asian-style GR with an appropriate
localization effort could be a key strategy.
– Controlled irrigation + modern varieties + modern
inputs (chemical fertilizer)
–  Skepticism (Africa’s condition is different from
Asia!)
• ↑But many are regional comparison. To investigate the
potential of rice, it is better to compare rice growing areas.
• ↑Some anecdotal success stories are emerging
Introduction (4)
• More solid micro-level evidence is needed
to design an appropriate strategy beyond
mere skepticism.
• The aim of this study
– Explore the potential of and constraints to a
an Asian-style lowland rice GR in Moz., using
household-level data collected in the Chokwe
irrigation scheme in 2007 (w/ financial support
from JBIC, JSPS, IFAD).
Chokwe
Maputo
Why Chokwe ? (1)
• Chokwe Irrigation Scheme
– Gravity system, managed by the state
• The most favorable area for rice cultivation.
– Its potential is as high as the banks of Nile (10 t/ha)!
• Asia’s experience
– GR started in the most favorable areas and then
extended to less favorable areas (David and Otsuka,
1994)
– Thus, it makes sense to explore if Chokwe has a
chance to be a starting point of Moz’s rice GR.
–  We compare the current condition of Chokwe with
those of Asia’s favorable areas in 60-70’s to
conjecture about possible constraints in Chokwe. (1st
step of our analysis)
Why Chokwe ? (2)
• Besides, within Chokwe, we can observe
wide variation in yield, cultivation practice,
and household socio-economic conditions.
•
•
•
•
Yield: 3.8 – 0.6t/ha (top25% vs bottom 25%)
NPK use: 67 – 0 kg/ha (top25% vs bottom 25%)
Different access to irrigation water
HH size and schooling years
–  Statistically identify household level
constraints by estimating a yield function and
factor demand functions (2nd step of our
analysis)
Two plots in Chokwe, different performance
no water, a lot of weeds, low
yield
Sufficient water, proper
management, high yield
Comparison w/ Asia: Yield
Chokwe
Year
2007
Major rice MV1
varieties
Laguna
Philippines
1966
TV
1976
MV1
Central Luzon,
Philippines
1967
TV
1971
Tamil
Nadu*
Moz/
Asia’s
1960s
Moz/
Asia’s
1970s
1971
MV1
MV1
Paddy Yield (t/ha)
Average
2.0
1.9
2.8
1.9
2.4
2.7
1.1
0.8
Average
of Top
25%
3.8
2.7
4.2
2.7
4.5
3.7
1.4
0.9
Comparison w/ Asia: Prices
Chokwe
Year
Nitrogen
(kg of rice/
kg of N)
Labor
wage (kg of
rice/day)
Laguna
Filipinas
Época chuvosa
Luzon Central
Filipinas
Época Seca
2007
1966
1976
1967
1971
7.9
3.2
3.0
2.6
2.4
12.0
9.6
8.5
7.9
5.8
Tamil
Nadu*
Moz/
Asia’s
1960s
Moz/
Asia’s
1970s
2.7
2.9
1.4
1.7
1971
6.6
Comparison w/ Asia: Input Intensity
Chokwe
Laguna
Filipinas
Época chuvosa
Luzon Central
Filipinas
Época Seca
Tamil
Nadu*
2007
1966
1976
1966
1976
1971
1960s
1970s
Nitrogen
(kg/ha)
19
13
58
17
59
52
1.2
0.3
Labor
(days/ha)
76
89
105
72
79
157
0.9
0.6
Prop of
hired labor
36
49
71
60
43
73
0.6
0.5
Use of
credit (%)
15
27
Moz/
Asia
Moz/
Asia
Comparison w/ Asia: Socio
Economic Characteristics
Chokwe
2007
Farm size
(ha)
1.7
Household
size
8.0
Schooling
Years of
head
3.6
Average
Schooling
Years
4.3
Laguna
Filipinas
Época chuvosa
Luzon Central
Filipinas
Época Seca
1966
1967
1971
1971
1960s
1970s
1.5
2.1
1.4
1.1
1.0
7.6
6.2
5.9
1.3
1.2
4.6
4.4
5.9
3.3
1976
5.9
5.0
Tamil
Nadu*
Moz/
Asia
Moz/
Asia
Comparison w/ Asia: Findings
• Yield is higher than Asia before GR but slightly
lower than Asia during the early phase of GR. 
Potential exist, but slightly lagged behind
• Extremely expensive N, moderately expensive
labor. Less use of these inputs
• Inaccessible credit and insufficient water could
be other reasons for less intensive use of N.
• Synchronization of peak labor season and few
landless may make intensive use of labor further
difficult.
• On the other hand, no discernible differences in
– the extent of mechanization, farm size, schooling
years, family size, age.
Determinants of rice yield (1):
Approach
Yield function
y=f(xc, xg, h)
Factor demand functions
xc=g(xg, z, h)
xc: inputs (choice of a farmer, endogenous, e.g. NPK)
xg: inputs (given to a farmer, exogenous, e.g. irrig’n)
h: HH management ability (educ and age)
z: factor endowments/wealth (HH size, non-ag assets, etc)
• To the make the IV method valid, we would like to have
less xc and more z.
•  linear yield function (no squared terms of xc) and
include h only in factor dem. functions as a part of z.
Determinants of rice yield (2):
Yield function
NPK a
Labor a
Prop of hired labor a
Use of tractor a
Use of thresher a
Transplanting a
Size of cultivated area
Insufficient irrigation (relative freq.)
Downstream parcels
Constant
(5)
IV
0.022
(2.02)**
0.008
(2.06)**
-0.386
(0.49)
0.207
(0.29)
1.483
(1.36)
-0.369
(0.47)
-0.126
(2.06)**
-0.694
(1.81)*
-0.459
(1.34)
1.536
(1.99)**
Determinants of rice yield (3): Factor
Demand Functions (selected vars)
NPK
Cult area
Insuf irrig’n
–
HH size
–
Labor
% of
hired lab
Tractor
–
+
+
Threshe Transpla
r
nting
+
+
+
Sch yr
+
Sch yr sq
–
non-ag assets
+
+
+
% of salary
earners
+
–
–
% of salary
earners sq
–
+
+
–
Determinants of rice yield (3):
Decomposition of yield increasing factors
Yield (t/ha)
NPK (kg/ha)
Labor (days/ha)
Prop of hired labor
Use of tractor (dummy)
Use of thresher (dummy)
Transplanting (dummy)
Cultivated area (ha)
Insufficient irrigation
Downstream parcels (dummy)
Sum of the contributions
Botto
m
20%
Top
20%
Differ
ence
0.97
4.94
39.25
0.26
0.38
0
0.81
1.99
0.36
0.38
3.55
50.71
129.23
0.39
0.71
0.23
0.77
1.31
0.03
0.09
2.58
45.77
89.98
0.13
0.34
0.23
-0.04
-0.68
-0.34
-0.29
Contri Share
bution
of
to
contri
yield bution
increa
(%)
se (kg)
1.02
0.74
-0.05
0.07
0.34
0.01
0.08
0.23
0.13
2.58
40
29
-2
3
13
1
3
9
5
100
14%
incl.
indirect
impacts
Conclusion (1)
• The conditions of Chokwe for embarking
on the Asian-style lowland rice GR are not
as disadvantageous as those of Asia in
the past, except for excessively expensive
chemical fertilizer and moderately costly
labor.
• These inputs are used less intensively in
Chokwe, resulting in low yield.
• Inaccessibility to credit and insufficient
water lower input intensity further,
resulting in further low yield.
Conclusion (2)
• Implications
– Improvement of irrigation management is
important.
– Worth thinking strategies to improve
• farmers’ credit access and
• liquidity constraint (↑cash on hand)
– Introduction of improved modern varieties
• Shorter maturity duration variety would relax the
timing of transplanting and thus spread out the
peak season labor demand.
• Remaining issues
– How to make chemical fertilizer cheaper?
Limpopo
Thank you very much