Transcript Document

Weiss Residential Research LLC
Residential Real Estate Training on Weiss Data and Uses
Presented by: Mr. Allan Weiss
Make Smarter Residential Real Estate Decisions
www.weissres.com
 Increase your Listings
 Accelerate Offers
 Add Visibility into Value and Performance
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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Training Topics
1. What is an index and a forecast
2. How are they calculated?
3. How are they being used today?
4. How should I interpret the index and forecast graphs?
5. How are they different from an AVM? An Appraisal? A BPO?
6. How accurate is the WRR data compared to other data/info?
7. How could it be useful for realtors?
a. Generating new leads
b. Working with Sellers
c. Working with buyers
8. Elevator speech for realtors – how to describe it to your
customers
9. How do I get started using it?
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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What is an Index and Forecast?
 The Index tracks the value change that a house has experienced through
time up to the present.
 The Forecast is WRR’s best estimate of how much the house value will
change over the next 12 months.
WRR Historical Index
WRR Forecast
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
3
How are Indexes and Forecasts Calculated?
 The index is calculated using the same repeat sales indexing principles
used in the S&P CaseShiller home price index.
 We identify several 100 houses that are most similar to each
subject house that have sold two times between whenever the
graph begins and the present day.
 These sale pairs are weighted by how similar the house is
compared to the subject house. Then the sale pairs are combined
to draw a smooth curve of the changing value of the particular
house.
 The Forecast is calculated by looking at the trajectory of the index for
the specific house in combination with whether market conditions for
nearby houses are causing houses to tilt more upwards or more
downwards.
 For example, if the past year the index for the subject house has
been going up 5% but nearby houses have started going up less in
the past year then this 5% might be reduced to a final forecast of
2.5%
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
4
How are Indexes and Forecasts Being Used?
 Indexes are being used to:
1. Validate individual house value performance against known results
(sales that have happened verifying value changes in the subject
house).
2. Provide visibility into potential trouble spots and impact on subject
house value.
 Forecasts are being used to:
1. Identify troubled loans (value continues to decline and projections
indicate further decline) that may slip into default.
2. Identify appreciating values for potential loan refinancing.
3. Identify best areas, times, and house types for acquisition
4. Identify trouble spots for acceleration of sales
WRR combined indexes and forecasts on each house are being used by
Wall Street firms to assess risk and opportunity in investing in houses and
mortgages.
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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How should I interpret the graphs?
The index and forecast line graphs can show you several things:
 Overall how volatile is the value of this house?
 How much did the house rise or fall during the boom and crash?
 How the recovery is going?
 Is the current value rising, falling or flat?
Solid recovery from crash
These observations can help you explain to a prospective buyer/seller
generally how safe this investment might be and what would be
reasonable to expect for the price change over the next year.
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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How are they different from an AVM, BPO, or an
Appraisal?
 The indexed value is produced in a very different way than an
AVM, appraisal or BPO.
 Each of these other methods use a relatively small number of
comparables to arrive at an estimate of the current value.
 In contrast, the index value takes a prior known value of the
subject house provided by you, the realtor, typically a prior
sales price and adjusts this value by the amount the index
changed from the date of the value to the present day.
 For example, if the house sold in January, 2005 for $200,000
and the index is up 10% from then until now the index value
would be $220,000.
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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How accurate is the WRR data compared to other
sources of data/information?
 The indexed value cannot be more accurate than the prior
known value that you provide.
 If the prior known value is too high by 10% then most likely the
indexed value on average will be too high by 10%.
 However, if the prior know value is accurate and the condition
of the house has not changed relative to typical nearby houses
the estimate will be quite accurate because the repeat sales
methodology used for the index is the most accurate in the
industry.
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
8
How could the indexes and forecasts be useful to
Realtors?
 Lead Generation
 Keeping in touch with previous customers – give them report on
their house
 All houses declining this amount in this area at this price point;
same for rising etc – do targeting mailing and then follow-up
 A way to be in contact with your current interest/contact list
 Providing info to FSBO’s and getting them to list with them
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
9
How could the indexes and forecasts be useful to
Realtors?
 Potential Sellers
 Info for BPO’s
 Info for Appraisers
 A way to help set the sales price for a lister – if house is declining – should
target price out about 3 months to insure that it sells fast and does not set
on the market. For a house rising – be more aggressive in pricing.
 A way to assess an offer from a buyer
Strong decline – list early?
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
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Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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How could the indexes and forecasts be useful to
Realtors?
 Potential Buyers
 Info for Appraisers
 Reports for those thinking of buying – knowing the forecasted value for the
next 12 months for each house they are considering
 Identify houses in advance of the kind of home they want – increasing X
amount in the next year….
 A way to assess the sales price for a buyer and therefore make an offer
900000
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700000
600000
Solid increase – price here?
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Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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Realtor’s Elevator Pitch
 We have a new and powerful decision making tool that is a
breakthrough in accuracy and precision in understanding how
each specific house is changing in value through time and how
much it is likely to change in the coming year.
 It is produced by Allan Weiss who worked with Nobel Prize
winner Bob Shiller to create the S&P Case Shiller Home price
index.
 If I am a seller – is the house falling and therefore do I need to
get ahead of the curve and therefore sell it before it falls
further.
 If I am a buyer and the house is rising rapidly it says I need to
make a more aggressive bid in order to get the house and will
make it up in the next year in appreciation.
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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Let’s Get Started!
1. You provide us the address via email and we send you the house
index and forecast:
 Address: 123 Main Street, Popular, MA 234565 to
[email protected]
2. You provide us with the information that you want to receive and we
send you a data file. Send all requests to [email protected];
508-647-9997
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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Competitive Pricing!
Individual or Bulk Pricing:
1. Single Address - $25.00
2. Volume/Batch Purchases
1. 25 – 100 Addresses = $3.00 each
2. 101 – 200 Addresses = $2.00 each
3. Unlimited addresses = $1.50 each
Note: Broker/Agent has 12 months to use addresses
See Weiss Residential Research Boston Metro Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcswMKMRU6E
Contact: Rebecca Raibley, [email protected]
O: 508-647-9997
www.weissres.com
220 North Main Street, Natick, MA 01760
Phone: 508.647.9997
7/7/2015
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