Presented to Arizona City/County Management Association

Office of Employment & Population Statistics Arizona Department of Administration February 7, 2013 1

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Arizona, 2010

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Total pop: 3,700; Median age: 68 Age 65 and over: 56% Age 17 and below: 7% Hispanic: 7% Quartzsite, 2010

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Total pop: 14,000; Median age: 26 Age 65 and over: 7% Age 17 and below: 38% Hispanic: 96% Somerton, 2010

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County total pop: 72,000 Apache County, 2010

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County total pop: 20,000 La Paz County, 2010

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Place total pop: 13,000 Paradise Valley, 2010

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Place total pop: 118,000 Surprise, 2010

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Place total pop: 162,000 Tempe, 2010

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Place total pop: 26,000 Florence, 2010

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Background

 State and county population projections were prepared in accordance with Executive Order 2011-04.  Extensive engagement of stakeholders and experts.  Multiple revisions made based on feedback.  16 Geographies (State + 15 Counties)  40-year projection horizon (base year = 2010)  Released in December 2012.  Sub-county projections to be released in September 13

Highlights

 The state is expected to grow at a slower pace than in past decades, but still faster than the country  Migration will account for ½ to ¾ of growth; share of immigration dips then rises  More concentration in the Phoenix Metro area  Significant increase in 65+ age group  Share of school-age children stable  Non-Hispanic White will no longer be the majority  Share of Hispanic population increases in all counties 14

14 000 000 12 000 000 10 000 000 8 000 000 6 000 000 4 000 000 2 000 000 0

Total Population: Arizona

6,499,000 7,485,000 8,853,000 10,218,000 11,563,000 Historical High Series Medium Series Low Series 15

250 000

Annual Population Change: Arizona

200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 53,000 137,000 137,000 134,000 137,000 Historical High Series Medium Series Low Series 16

30% 20% 10% 0% 70% 60% 50% 40%

Regional Share of Arizona Population

70% 67% 68% 66% 19% 15% 19% 15% 18% 14% 17% 14% PHX Metro Historical Tucson Metro Historical Balance of State Historical PHX Metro Projected Tucson Metro Projected Balance of Metro Projected 71% 16% 13% 17

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Racial and Ethnic Composition, Arizona, 2012-2050

Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Other, Non-Hispanic 18

Arizona Population, 2010 and 2035

AZ 2010 US 2010 AZ 2010 Rank AZ 2035

Median age Percent under 18 35.9

25.5% Percent 65 and over 13.8% Percent 85 and over % White non Hispanic % Hispanic 1.6% 57.8% 29.6% 37.2

24.0% 13.0% 1.8% 63.7% 16.3% 9 th youngest state 6 th 20 th 38.4

24.9%

20.9%

35 th 43 rd 4 th

3.1% 46.9% 39.1%

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Jim Chang, State Demographer

Office of Employment & Population Statistics Arizona Department of Administration [email protected]

(602) 771-1236 www.azstats.gov

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