Transcript No Slide Title

Adaptation Responses and Vulnerability
to Climate Change
Barry Smit
Professor, University of Guelph, Canada
Co-CLA, IPCC, TAR, WG2, Ch.18
For
IPCC Session, COP-6 (pt 2), Bonn, July 17, 2001
Adaptation to Climate Change
Adjustments in ecological, social or economic
systems in response to actual or expected
climate change stimuli, their effects or impacts
• to reduce vulnerability
• to moderate damages
• to realize opportunities
Adaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto
UNFCCC, Art. 2
Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food
production and economic development to adapt
UNFCCC, Art. 4.1
…facilitate adequate adaptation…
…co-operate in preparing for adaptation...
UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8
…assist developing country Parties that are particularly
vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in
meeting costs of adaptation...
Kyoto, Art. 10
Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate
adequate adaptation...
Human
Interference
CLIMATE CHANGE
incl. Variability
Initial Impacts
Effects
MITIGATION
of Climate Change
via GHG sources
and sinks
Expected
Adaptations
Residual or
Net Impacts
dangerous? vulnerable?
Policy
Responses
Planned
ADAPTATION
to the
Impacts and
Vulnerabilities
Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
Coping Range
Changed Climate
Current Climate
Probability of
high extremes
Frequency /
Probability Coping Range
of
Occurrence
(e.g. years)

X

Xcc
Values of Climatic Attribute (X)
Vulnerability to Climate Change
depends upon
• Exposure to Climate Change Risks
and
• Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks
Types of Adaptation
Anticipatory
• changes in ecosystem
composition, location
• wetland migration
Private
• crop diversification
• purchase insurance
• house designs
• crop development
• borrow, change activity
• reconstruction,
relocation
Public
Natural
Systems
Human
Systems
Reactive
• early-warning
• building codes
• infrastructure
• disaster relief
• relocation incentives
Main Findings re Adaptation
1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts
2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not
without costs
3. The key features of climate change are
variabilities and extremes
4. Planned adaptation measures usually have
immediate benefits
5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if
they are integrated with existing management
and development processes
Main Findings re Adaptive Capacity
6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among
countries and socio-economic groups
7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity,
yet they tend to omit climate change risks
8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary
to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most
vulnerable
9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive
capacity is insufficient
Research Needs for Adaptation Policy
Adaptation Processes
• decision making
• conditions that stimulate or constrain
• role of non-climate factors
Evaluation of Adaptation Options
• not only economic criteria
• include roles of stakeholders
Focus on Adaptive Capacity
• to reduce vulnerabilities
• relate to existing management processes
• incorporate in development initiatives