Transcript Renewables: Are they enough?

Renewables:
Choices and opportunity costs
Prof. David Elliott
The Open University
A range of possible energy mixes…
UK Energy Research Centre- MARKAL UK electricity scenarios for 2050
UK Electricity Mix
Marsh/FES, 2005
UK Electricity Mix
Marsh/FES,2005
Potential % of overall UK electricity supply in 2050
Onshore wind
8-11%
Offshore wind
18-23%
Wave/Tidal
12-14%
Biomass
9-11%
PV solar
6-8%
TOTAL
53-67%
Based on overall likely level of supply of 400-500 TWh in 2050
Source: DTI/Carbon Trust ‘Renewables Innovation Review’ 2004
New EU Directive - 20% of total energy from renewables by 2020
BERR’s Renewable Energy Consultation suggested that by 2020
renewables might provide 15% of Primary energy as follows :
32% of electricity,
14% of heat,
10% of transport fuel
Renewables 31%
Then the new UK Renewable Energy Strategy (2009) said by
2020 renewables could supply around:
30% of electricity,
12% of heat
10% of transport fuel
Gas 29%
What do others say?
Extended RO37 Electricity Scenario- 37% renewables
Source: Redpoint, Trilemma, Cambridge University (2008) ‘Implementation of EU 2020 Renewable
Target in the UK Electricity Sector: Renewable Support Schemes,’ report for DBERR
Oil Crunch Energy Scenario
Renewables supply c. 50% of
electricity, c. 27% of heat, c.10%
of transport fuel and, overall, c.
20% of Primary energy by 2020
374TWh
‘Oil Crunch’ Report, from the Industry Task Force on Peak
Oil and Energy Security, 2008
Energy Watch ‘high’ scenario- 4,45GW of
(non hydro) renewables globally by 203030% share of final total energy demand,
62% of global electricity (Energy Watch 2008)
INforSE visions
Phase-out of fossil fuels by
2050 and nuclear power by
2025, leading to 33%
reductions of greenhouse gases
by 2020 and 100% by 2050.
What’s stopping it?
The UK has its own special problem
The Renewables Obligation
(versus Feed In Tariffs)
In 2005/6 the RO cost consumers
3.2/p/kWh, whereas in 2006 the German
Feed In Tariff only cost consumers
2.6/p/kWh
(Ernst and Young 2008)
Germany has 25GW of wind capacity in
place so far, the UK 3.7 GW