Transcript Six Degrees to Hell ..

Enrique Ortega and Ari Costa
Laboratory of Ecological Engineering
Food Engineering School
State University of Campinas
S X
6
5
Degrees
to Hell …
4
3
2
1
or
Four Years
to a
Prosperous
Future
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/index.htm
National
Academy
of Sciences
first report
on Climate
Change
Deadline of
first Kyoto
Protocol
Is Global Cooling due to a
Waning Sun a possibility?
What could be nice to
happen in 2012?
Threshold
date for high
risk climate
change
In 1712 Thomas Newcome
invented the water steam
pump that used coal as fuel
This date is considered
as the birth of industrial
capitalism
Maya
Calendar
special year
1712 – 2012
Industrial Capitalism based on
Greed, Perpetual Growth,
Oppression and Untruth.
Victim of its Own Pollution
and Climate Chaos.
Then the humanity could live with:
Harmony, responsibility,
renewable consumption,
healthy relationship with nature
But in a hotter or a cooler planet!
Progress of Science
To the
Infinite Universe
"What course after nightfall?
Has destiny written that we must run to the end?“
Systems
science
committed
with truth
Greek Lyric Poet Pindar (c. 522-438 BCE)
in Eiseley, 1970
Mathematics
Astronomy
Galileo
Einstein
Newton
Kepler
Modern
Culture
Ptolomaeus
From a closed
World
Religion
Early
Science
Myths
Industrial
Revolution
Enlightenment
Middle Age
America
Islam
China
Byzantium
Rome
India
Greece
Egypt
Fertile Crescent
Capitalism
(Utilitarian
Science)
The Science Progress Path
Mathematics
Astronomy
Ancient
Science
Archeology
Physics
Chemistry Biology
Scientific Revolution
XVII Century
The Infinitely Big
The Infinitely Small
The Infinitely Complex
The Past and future
of Mankind
Geology
Climatology
Modern Science
Ecology
History
Paleoclimatology
Systems Theory
Systems Dynamics
Complex Systems
Open Systems
Models of the World
Critics to the World System
The Expansion of Capitalism
How its Mental Model works ?
From radical
Individualism
to
Extreme
Greed
Violent
Oppression
Ignorance
promotion
World
destruction
And finally
Global Collapse
Pyramid of the Present Capitalism
Central Nation
Governo
Government
Links of Ideology groups
and Multinational Companies
are very strong
Ideology
And Culture
Military Forces
Energy and
raw-materials
Multinational
Companies
$
Small Companies
Middle Class
Workers
Farmers
Unemployed
People
Peripheral Countries
Basic assumptions of
capitalist model are the
following:
The growth of Gross
National Product (GNP)
maximizes human welfare
Enterprises and Free Market
Forces allocate People and
Resources for their better
and Superior Use
Economic Growth is the main
priority to maintain Profits
Environmental resources are
limitless and absorb all the
industrial impacts
The problems cannot be
solved within the boundaries
of the Mentality that
generated them
Albert Einstein
The solution demands an
ethical and esthetical
open systems approach:
Multi-guided
self-organization
Overcoming the Capitalism mental model
Economic expansion aiming fast and high profits
destroys Sustainable Systems all over the World.
Competitive advantage and scale economy are only
possible because the damages (loss of environmental
services and negative externalities) are not subject to
penalties.
The Criteria “GNP Growth” leads to the destruction of
the Biosphere Environmental Assets and brings risks to
Mankind Future. Presently, Amazon in Brazil is being
destroyed by Capitalism.
Market Economy generates Exodus to Slums and, at the
same time, promotes Not Sustainable Consumption by
the rich ones.
There are no substitutes for extinct species, including
human beings.
Is Ripening a granted stage
in an Industrial Revolution?
Or is a Revolution necessary
for Sustainability and
Human Life Preservation?
On what basis?
H2O
CH4
CO2
NOx
SOx
Eruptions
CO2, CH4, N, S
heat
were removed during
500 millions of years
CO2
Organic
matter
Terrestrial
surface
(fotosyntesis)
O2
Consumers
(fauna)
Frozen
surfaces
CO2 CH4
Sun
C
N
Fossil
energy
resources
Organic
matter
Consumers
Oceans and
water bodies
Calcium
carbonates
(reefs)
Rain
Heat
Methane
hydrate
S
H2O
CH4
CO2
NOx
SOx
Eruptions
heat
The sequestered C is
put back into the air in
about 200 years
CO2
Organic
matter
Industrial
human
beings
O2
Consumers
(fauna)
Terrestrial
surface
(fotosyntesis)
Frozen
surfaces
Sun
CO2 CH4
S
N
C
Fossil
energy
resources
Organic
matter
Consumers
Oceans and
water bodies
Atmosphere
composition
reversion
in a very short time
Calcium
carbonates
(reefs)
Rain
Heat
Increased retention
Methane
hydrate
CO2 and other
GHG in the
atmosphere
Industrial Revolution:
Since 1712 burning fossil fuels
25,000
35
Gross World Product
30
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
20,000
25
15,000
20
15
10,000
10
5,000
5
0
0
1950
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Data Source: Adapted from Environment Canada Indicators Website
90
95 2000
GWP 1995 (US$ Trillions)
CO2 Emissions (Megatonnes)
Co-products: CO2, CH4, N2O
During industrialization the population grew as fast as
the CO2 output …… but science shows that there are
limits for both!
Oil
Population and CO2 Concentration
1100 Years
1000
9 billion, 2050
8
800
6.5 billion, 2007
6
600
Multinational Corporations
4
2
Information Age
Chemical farming
Industrial Revolution
Enlightenment
1000
1500
400
200
0
1900 2000 2100
CO2 Concentration in ppm
World Population in Billions
10
CO2
What and Who makes
the Weather?
Lessons from the Past
Vostok Ice Core Data
There is indeed a
correlation between
CO2 and
temperature!
Carbon Dioxide
(parts per million)
National Geophysical Data Center
300
280
280
240
220
200
180
Temperature
(ºC +/- Normal)
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Years Before Present (x 1000)
0
Indicators of the Human Influence on the
Atmosphere During the Industrial Era
Radioative Forcing (Wm-2)
CO2 (ppm)
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
380
0.15
Nitrous Oxide Concentration
1.5
310
380
Radioative Forcing (Wm-2)
N2O (ppb)
0.10
1.0
360
290
0.05
0.5
300
280
0.0
0.00
270
260
250
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1000
1200
1400
Methane Concentration
1750
0.50
1500
50
0.25
1000
750
2000
Sulfate
Aerosols
Deposited in
Greenland
Ice
200
1250
1800
Sulfur
mg SO4 per 1000g of Ice
Radioative Forcing (Wm2)
CH4 (ppb)
1600
SO2
Emissions
from United
States and
Europe
100
25
0.00
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0
1400
1600
1800
Climate Change is Linked to Industrialization
2000
Industrial Revolution Outputs
Greenhouse Gas
chemical formula
Pre-industrial
concentration
Present
concentration
(% increase)
Carbon Dioxide
278 ppm
377.3
(40%)
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Land Use Change
Cement Production
Methane
700 ppb
1737
(250%)
Fossil Fuels
Rice Paddies
Waste Dumps
Nitrous Oxide
275 ppb
+ 811 ppb
(200%)
CO2
CH4
N2O
Besides these, there are other GHG substances
Sources
Fertilizer
Industrial Processes
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Change in Temperature (ºC)
Lessons from
the Past
Holocene Maximum
2
0
Little Ice Age
-2
-4
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Thousands of Years Before Present
What and Who makes
the Weather?
Lessons from
the Past
• Tectonic Causes
– Landmass Distribution
• Continental Drifts
– Undersea Ridges Activity
• Sea Floor Spreading
• Astronomical Causes
– Elliptical Orbit of the Earth
• 21,000 Year Cycle – Precession of
Equinoxes
– Wobble in Earth’s Orbit
• 41,000 Year Cycle: +/- 1,5%
– Solar Energy Output
• 100,000 Year Cycle
• Atmospheric Causes
Industrial
civilization
– Heat Retention
• Greenhouse Effect
– Solar Reflectivity
What and Who makes
• Clouds, Volcanic Dust, Polar Ice Caps
the Weather?
Industrial human beings are
making the Weather!
700
Projected (2100)
Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the atmosphere is
above the highest Level of the last 400,000 Years
Civilization begun 7,000 – 10,000 years ago
650
600
550
500
450
400
Current (2001)
350
300
250
200
300,000
400,000
200,000
100,000
Today
Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide
Source: Co-operative Research Centre
for Greenhouse Accounting, 2001
Lessons from the Past
… and the Present !!!
Years before the Present
What were the CO2 values of the Past?
What is it now?
What could they be in the Future?
Another supposition: cooling
700
Projected (2100)
Parts per Million of Carbon Dioxide
650
600
550
After fast Warming
a fast Cooling?
500
450
400
Current (2001)
350
300
250
200
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years before the Present
100,000
Today
+100,000
After Present
IPCC Current Consensus
The Present Impact
Millions of Years Ago
600
100
0
200
400
2000
Extinction Rate
60
Anthropocene
Extinction
40
1500
Cretaceous
Extinctions
20
1000
500
AWL © 1999
Paleozoic
Mesozoic
Tertiary
Cretaceous
Jurassic
Triassic
Permian
Carboniferous
Devonian
Silurian
Ordovician
Cambrian
0
Cenozoic
)
0
Precambrian
Extinction Rate (% of Families that Died Out (
)
80
Number of Families (
Number of
Permian Extinctions Families
2500
The Future Impact
Some of IPCC
main findings
Altered frequencies and intensities of
extreme weather, climate and sea-level
events are very likely to increase.
Some large-scale climate events have the
potential to cause huge impacts,
during or after the 21st century.
The Future Impact
Some of IPCC
main findings
Adaptation will be necessary to address
impacts resulting from the warming which
is already unavoidable due to past
emissions.
Sustainable Development can reduce
vulnerability to climate change, but
climate change could obstruct the nations’
capability to achieve sustainable
development pathways.
A little bit warmer
... or much warmer?
If in the past 6°C of Cooling
nearly wiped us away
…..might 6oC of Warming have
a similar effect?
Millions of years before now
20
19
18
17
16
1x109 100x106 10x106
1x106 100x103
10x103
1
1x10
15
© 1999 Addison Wesly London, Inc.
CENOZOIC
0
The Future as a process that
can take us Back to the Past
MEZOZOIC
1x102
65
PALEOZOIC
135
245
570
Millions of years before now
1x103
Temperature (ºC)
21
4,600
570 510 439 409 363 323290 245 208 146 65
56
Millions of years before now
35
23
5
PERIOD
ERA
CENOZOIC
2 0.01 0
280
ppmv
EPOCH
TERTIARY
HOLOCENE (Eve)
2050 ppmv
QUATERNARY
> 5000 ppmv
PLEISTCCENE
PLIOCENE
(Hominids)
[CO2] = 340 ppmv
MEZOZOIC
MIOCENE
OLIGOCENE
EOCENE
(Anthropoids)
PALEOCENE
CRETACEOUS
JURASSIC
[CO2] = 210 ppmv
PALEOZOIC
TRIASSIC
PERMIAN
CARBONIFEROUS
[CO2]
PENSILVANYAN
PRECAMBRIAN
DEVONIAN
SILURIAN
[CO2] = 350 ppmv
> 2000 ppmv
MISSISSIPIAN
ORDOVICIAN
CAMBRIAN
Back to other eras!
Geological Timescale and Carbon Dioxide Density
TODAY
378
ppmv
Is There a Climate Policy ?
Temperature
in Celsius
Objective situation
CO2 target
0.1 - 1.0ºC
Avoidance is not possible anymore
350 ppm (*)
1.1 – 2.0ºC
Global emission peak by 2015
400 ppm
Threshold for Carbon-Cycle Feedback?
2.1 – 3.0ºC
Global emission peak by 2030
450ppm
Threshold for Siberian Methane Feedback
3.1 – 4.0ºC
Global emission peak by 2050
550 ppm
4.1 – 5.0ºC
Constantly rising emission allowed
650 ppm
5.1 – 6.0ºC
Very high emissions allowed
800 ppm
(*) Present level is 380 ppm
Is There a
Climate Policy ?
Global Integration
A1 storyline
A2 storyline
World: market Oriented
Economy: fastest per capita growth
Population: 2050 peak, then decline
Governance: strong regional
World: differentiated
Economy: regionally oriented;
B1 storyline
B2 storyline
World: convergent
Economy: service and information
World: local solutions
Economy: intermediate growth
Population: continuously increasing at
interactions, income convergence
Technology: three scenarios groups:
•A1FI: fossil intensive
•AIT: non-fossil energy sources
•A1B: balanced across all sources
based; lower growth than A1
Population: same as A1
Governance: global solutions to
economic, social and environmental
sustainability
Technology: clean and resourceefficient
lowest per capita growth
Population: continuously increasing
Governance: self-reliance with
preservation of local identities
Technology: slowest and more
fragmented development
lower rate than A2
Governance: local and regional
solutions to environmental protection
and social equity
Technology: more rapid than A2; less
rapid, more diverse than A1/B1
Environmental emphasis
Source: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
Regional emphasis
Summary
of IPCC
scenarios
Economic emphasis
Global Temperature Increase (ºC)
Future Around the Corner (IPCC graph)
5.8ºC
2012
6
Low
Probability
Least Likely
5
4
Mitigation to limit
high damages
3
2
1.2ºC
1
0
Adaptation to Climate Changes
1990
2010
Adaptation
2030
2050
2070
2090
Mitigation
Moderately
Likely
Extreme
Outcomes
Considerable
Damage to
Most Systems
Increased
Damage to Most
Systems, Fewer
“Positive” effects
Almost Certain
Damage to the
most sensitive,
Many “Positive”
effects
Happening
Now
Vulnerable to
Current Climate
Highly Likely
Probability
Consequence
Time Horizon of Integrated Approaches
Core Benefits of Adaptation and Mitigation
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Synthesis of Risk-Management Approaches to Global Warming
Source: IPCC - TAR – Technical Assessment Report – February 2007
Water and ecosystems
0
1
2
4
3
5ºC
Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in
mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
WATER
0.4 to 1.7 billion
Additional people with increased water stress
1.0 to 2.0 billion
1.1 to 3.2 billion
ECOSYSTEMS
Increasing
amphibian
extinction
Increased
coral bleaching
Major extinction
around the globe
About 20% to 30% species at
increasingly high risk of extinction
Most corals
bleached
Increasing species range
shifts and wildlife risk
Widespread
coral mortality
Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net
carbon source, as: 15% to 40% of
ecosystems affected
Food and health
0
1
2
4
3
5ºC
Low latitudes
Decrease for some cereals
FOOD
Crop
productivity
is affected
All cereals decrease
Mid to high latitudes
Increase for some cereals
Decrease in some
regions
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrheal,
cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases
HEALTH
Increased damage from foods and storms
Changed distribution
of some disease vectors
Substantial burden on
health services
Coastal regions and singular events
0
1
2
3
4
5ºC
Increased damage from floods and storms
COSTAL
REGIONS
About 30% loss
of coastal wetlands
Additional people
at risk of coastal
flooding each year
SINGULAR
EVENTS
Local
retreat of
ice in
Greenland
and West
Antarctic
0 to 3
million
2 to 15 million
Long term
commitment to
several meters
of sea-level
rise due to ice
sheet loss
Leading to
reconfiguration
of coastlines
world wide and
inundation of
low-lying areas
Ecosystems changes due to weakening of
the meridional overturning circulation
The present condition
imposes a different
and urgent vision
Guiding the Future
Who are the scientists
who can help us?
IPCC
(UN)
Lynas
Flannery
International scientific
community that studies
systems sciences
Forrester
Pimentel
Giampietro
Odum
Gunther
Lovelock
Cohen
The Prosperous
Way Down!
Systems Principles
Pulses and Cycles
Climax
Assets
Producers
Classic view for Sustainability, where
growth is followed by a Steady
State with high energy level.
But after observing nature Odum
Consumers
proposed the
Pulse Paradigm
Stage 2
Growth
Climax and
Transition
Time
Assets
There is in Nature a Cycle where
Slow Restoration of Resources alternates
with the Consumption Pulse
(that builds up consumer assets)
Stage 1
Stage 3
Growth
Descent
Assets
Resources
Stage 4
Low energy
restoration
Consumer Pulse
Time
Each Stage in the Cycle
Has an Adequate Policy
Stage 1
Growth
Competition for resources
Selection: Few prevail over competitors
Fast growth for the whole system
Each Stage in the Cycle
Has an Adequate Policy
Stage 2
Climax e Transition
Resources are obtained from the whole system and used
as soon as available
System maturity with hierarchical organization
Strong feedback of the anthropic production processes
Artificial diversity and complexity increase
Cooperation and not competition
Information torment, but not all necessarily true
Each Stage in the Cycle
Stage 3
Has an Adequate Policy
Descent
Assets decrease
Smaller available stocks, destruction surges by large
scale pulses
The descent can be smooth or catastrophic
Low energy period:
Diversity and information are stored in order to avoid
critical losses
Priority given to long term needs
Performance maximization
Each Stage in the Cycle
Has an Adequate Policy
Stage 4
Low-Energy Restoration
 Environmental production is bigger than consumption
 Net increase in reserves: population has to decrease
 Small scattered Sustainable Communities
 Minimum growth and limited consumption attitudes
 Primary use of renewable and slowly renewable resources
 At the end: recovery of the cultural belief about growth
Learning about living with less energy
in a smaller economy has already begun
but there is no modern experience
in Descent to be used as a guide
Old
Civilization
Records
Cyclic
Systems
Principles
Analogy
with
Ecosystems
Innovation for a postindustrial civilization
Instead of Denying
planning for a Better World
where we use Less
Is the Homo Sapiens able to change his culture?
YES! Observed daily changes on behavior suggest that!
A new position of Global Communication is necessary
The reversion of the attitude must happen within one generation
Decline is not just going back to the past
It is necessary to avoid the low efficiency of trial and error methods
Growth is good
Decline is bad
Negative
Connotation
Attitude Change must be stimulated through
Education, Political Leadership, and Pioneering efforts
Psycho-social
capability for
New ecological and
social patterns adoption
Changing the Social Paradigm!
Shared
knowledge
about Decline
Summary for an Orderly Descent
1. Make beneficial descent the collective
purpose for this century.
2. Dedicate television drama, literature, and art
to adventures about descent.
3. Accept a small annual decline in energy use.
4. Maintain a stable energy use per person by
reducing populations in a humanitarian way.
5. Remove all incentives, dogma, and approval for
excessive reproduction.
6. Reduce salaries and wages to maintain full
employment.
7. Keep the energy/money ratio stable by
adjusting the money in circulation.
Summary for an Orderly Descent
8. Borrow less and reduce high profit
expectations from stock markets.
9. Develop economic incentives for reducing
consumption.
10. Develop public opinion, laws, and taxes to
discourage unproductive resource use.
11. Sustain the production of the environment.
12. Consolidate knowledge for long-term
preservation.
13. Prioritize the concepts of international
respect and cooperation for global sharing.
The transformation that is needed
Central Nations
Governo
Governs
Ideology
and Culture
Military forces
Multinational
enterprises
Small business
Medium Classes
Workers
Farmers
Jobless people
Peripheral Countries
The transformation that is needed
Sustainable countries
Fair exchange based on sustainable emergy content of products
Sustainable countries
Thanks !!!
[email protected]
[email protected]