Transcript www.asiapacificpartnership.org

Long-Term Planning
Presented by:
Don Untch
Lead Long Range Asset Planner
APP Site Visit
October 30 – November 4, 2006
LONG-TERM PLANNING
Fossil & Hydro Generation (F&HG) longterm planning can be either:
»Strategic
or
»Tactical
2
LONG-TERM PLANNING FLOW
HIGH LEVEL OVERVIEW
Strategic
Long Term
Planning
Tactical
Long Term
Planning
Business
Planning
Process
Scheduled
Outage
Planning
Execution
Performance
and
Measurements
3
STRATEGIC PLANNING
F&HG Ten Year Strategic Plan:
 Develops an Asset Management Philosophy
 Lays the Foundation for a Working Plan that will Evolve
with the Changes Associated with Our Industry
 Is Comprehensive, Giving Consideration to all Known
Factors and Variables
 Incorporates a Environmental Compliance Plan
 Helps Improve Fleet Operational Performance
 Considers Yearly Fleet Expenditures
 Addresses Demographic Concerns with a Workforce
Plan
 Suggests a Potential Fleet Portfolio
4
STRATEGIC PLAN CONTENTS
 Summary of Fleet Historical Trends
• Performance Trends
Energy Value and Contribution
Equivalent Availability
EFOR (Equivalent Forced Outage Rate)
• Maintenance and Forced Outage Summary
• Capital and O&M Spending Trends
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Workforce Plan (Demographics)
Future Major Operating Liabilities
Environmental Compliance Strategy
Long Term Fleet Portfolio
5
STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS EXAMPLE
WORKFORCE PLAN
PRIMARY GOALS
SECONDARY
GOALS
INITIATIVES
•Review Results from Financial
Models & Strategic Long Term Plan
DETERMINE
OPERATIONAL
ROLE OF THE
PLANT
DETERMINE
OPTIMAL
STAFFING
LEVELS
FOR THE
PLANTS
LABOR
RELATIONS
ISSUES
“Outsourcing”
•Determine Role of Shared
Resources
Layoff & Recall
•Review “Outsourcing”
Layoff Allowance
Contract Provisions
Policy
•Review Layoff Allowance
•Consider Strike Impact on Staffing
Transferring
Employees
Between Plants
•Benchmark Against Other Plants &
Utilities
6
STRATEGIC PLAN – PROGRESSION
Follow-up Meetings with the Various Organizations to
Continue Development of Strategic Long Term Plan

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

Fuel Procurement & Fuel Logistics
Human Resources
Information Technology
Market Operations
Corporate Communications
Environmental
Regulatory Services
7
LONG TERM “TACTICAL” PLANNING
F&HG Ten Year Tactical Plan:
 Focuses on Details
 Focuses on Action
 Incorporated into an Executable Schedule or Timeline
 Focuses on Implementation
 Focuses on Results
 Tightly Integrated with the Annual Budget Process
 Turns Strategy into Reality
8
TACTICAL PLAN – TYPICAL YEARLY MEETING
DISCUSSIONS TOPICS

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
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

Unit Role
Environmental Compliance
Market & Commercial Operation Objectives & Shortfalls
Fuel Procurement & Handling
Financial & Budget
External Benchmarking Data
Unit Value Assessment Study (if Applicable)
Equipment Liabilities by Engineering Discipline


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Engineering Facility Health Report
Health Reports from Previous Business Plans
Equipment “GAP” Program (Expectation Shortfalls)
Engineering Input & Comments
 Long Term Planned Outage Frequency and Scheduling
9
TACTICAL PLAN – OUTPUT & RESULTS
 Long Term Planned Outage Schedule for each Unit
 Long Term Turbine, Generator, Boiler Feed Pump &
Transformer Inspection Schedule with Spare Part
Flow
 Basis for Input into:
 Financial Analysis
 Budgeting Systems
 Business Planning Process Long Term Plan
 Unit Long Term Liability Grid Sheet Summary
 Assigned Action Item List
 Meeting Minutes
10
TACTICAL PLAN – LONG TERM PLANNED OUTAGE
SUMMARY - EXAMPLE
Combustion inspection
Identifies Scrubber related outages.
Hot Gas path Inspections
Identifies Combined Scrubber & SCR outages
Identifies SCR related outages
PLANT RUN
UNIT CYCLE
DR-1 36/18
2006
1H 2H
2007
1H 2H
4.5
10.0 1.0 - 3.0
DR-2 36/18
2008
1H 2H
10.0
2009
1H 2H
2010
1H 2H
6.0
2011
1H 2H
2012
1H 2H
3.0
3.0
7.0
6.0
2015
1H 2H
3.0
4.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
YY-1 24/12
10.0
5.0
1.0
6.0
1.0
5.0
1.0
9.0
1.0
YY-2 24/12
2.0
8.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
6.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
9.0
XY-1 36/12/12
9.0
10.0
2.0
2.0
4.0
2.0
2.0
7.0
2.0
2.0
XY-2 36/12/12
0.6 10.0
0.3 2.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
9.0
2014
1H 2H
DR-3 36/18
2.0
3.0
2013
1H 2H
2.0
8.0
8.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
8.0
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TACTICAL PLAN – LONG TERM MAJOR
EQUIPMENT REPAIR SCHEDULE - EXAMPLE
TURBINE/GENERATOR LONG RANGE SCHEDULE
RED, CONFLICT
2006 THROUGH 2011
INSPECTION
SERIES
COMPONENT INTERVAL
1000MW
HP TURBINE
2RH TURBINE
LPA TURBINE
LPB TURBINE
GENERATOR
BFP TURBINE
10 YR
10 YR
12 YR
12 YR
10 YR
10 YR
2006
1H
2007
2H
1H
BLUE, NOT SERIES CO
2008
2H
1H
ZZ1 ('99) ADSP
ZZ1 ('99)
LL1 ('95)
LL1 ('01)
YY2 FIP
2009
2H
1H
2H
ZZ2('00)ADSP
ZZ2 ('00)
ZZ2 ('00)
ZZ2 ('97)
ZZ2 FIP LL2 FIP
YY2 ('96)
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TACTICAL PLAN – GOING FORWARD
Improve Long Term Plan Information Exchange
 All Fragmented & Pertinent Information Located
in One Place
 Information is Very Accessible to Multiple Users
 Comprehensive Plan Used to Facilitate the
Decision Making Process
13
Appendix
SIMPLIFIED LONG TERM FLOW PROCESS
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TACTICAL PLAN – LONG TERM SPARE PART
FLOW - EXAMPLE
AEP CRITICAL SPARE PARTS
LONG RANGE PLAN FLOW
1000MW Series - Alstom
Component
R
H
H
P
L
P
1
L
P
4
L
P
2
H
P
G
e
n
Component being
Repaired
2006
Spring
Component not Repaired, No
Funding or Action being
Taken
2007
Fall
Spring
Planned/Budgeted to
Repair Component
2008
Fall
Spring
Fall
Note 1
L
P
3
R
H
G
e
n
Current Spare
Status
Component Ready for
Service
HP Assembly from MT
D1000 Upgrade
DR 1
MT
SN 1-355200-406-10
Completion targeted 1/15/06
Last inpsected: 1995
HP Rotor @ CMS D8000
HP Assembly from
DR1 D1000
SN 1-000-406-10
Scope: repair & Upgrade
Cost: $4.7M
Upgrade @ Alstom
DR to budget upgrade in '07 ($1.4M) & '08
Emergency Only
SN 1-309000-406-12
Completion targeted ???
H
P
T
HP End Blade Carriers
@ CMS D8000
Emergency Only
Completion targeted ???
HP Outer Packing Glands
@ CMS
Emergency Use
16
1988
Pumping of Ash Pond
NO
BS
2
1996
Boiler Repairs
O
25
TG
2
1992
Turbine Repairs
O
42
BS
2
1996
HP Heater Repairs
O
88
2,500
1,200
MH
4
1969 Upgrade Conveyor Belt for Fuel
O
52
800
400
BOP
2
1980
Replace Electrical Controls
O
47
2,300
1,000
ENV
2
1978
Precipitator Repairs
O
36
2006
Total
Total
Total
DESCRIPTION
Capital
($000)
1st Half
Capital
($000)
2nd Half
O&M
($000)
1st Half
O&M
($000)
2nd Half
INCREMENTAL EFOR IMPROVEMENT**
DATE OF LAST REPLACEMENT
3
OUTAGE DAYS TO COMPLETE
PRIORITY CODE
I
YEAR
OUTAGE OR NON-OUTAGE
LIABILITY CODE
TACTICAL PLAN – LIABILITY SUMMARY
EXAMPLE FOR 2006
100
800
500
500
2%
400
2%
500
3%
1%
1%
Outage
Non-Outage
Liability Codes Defined Next Slide
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TACTICAL PLAN – LIABILITY CODES
Liability Codes
Liability Description
BS
TG
BOP
I
ENV
MH
Boiler/Steam Generator
Turbine/Generator
BOP/Electrical
Infrastructure
Environmental
Material Handling
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