Transcript 2010 UK Automotive Overview

The UK Automotive Scene
David Croxson – SMMT Head of International
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited
71 Great Peter Street London SW1P 2BN
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
An introduction to SMMT
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)
is the principal UK motor industry trade association
• Since 1902 - representing the UK industry - vehicle manufacturers,
OEM component and independent aftermarket manufacturers,
suppliers and distributors www.smmt.co.uk .
• Liaising with UK government – Automotive Council.
• Contact with EU Commission and trade bodies to influence national
and international standards and legislation – and help members
access UK and European government funding.
• Promoting industry - inward / outward trade delegations / exhibitor
groups overseas, organising UK Commercial Vehicle Show and
Meet the Buyer B2B events.
• Support on technical and vehicle legislation, e-business, quality,
environment, education and training.
• Providing data services - acknowledged as reliable, accurate and
comprehensive.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Introduction to the UK automotive sector
• Rising to the economic challenge – production and registration
• A place in the global market – foreign investment and exports
• Climate change and emissions
• Government and industry working together – a low-carbon future
• Research & Development in the UK
• UK Supply Chain
• Electric, Ultra-Low Carbon and Alternatively Fuelled Vehicles
• A European perspective
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Automotive rising to the challenge
• April year to date manufacturing volumes for cars and engines
strong, CVs weaker.
• Major strides in reducing environmental impact in products and
manufacturing processes.
• New car sales totalled 1.94mn. units in 2011, down 4.4% on 2010,
but ahead of the 1.92mn. forecast.
• In 2011 better than expected trend in commercial vehicle
registration: truck registrations up 42,944 units (24.6%), vans to 3.5t
registrations up 16.7% to 260,153. Bus & Coach down 12.8%.
• 2011 UK production remained encouraging – strong export growth
• Significant increase in UK investment by VMs in R&D and local
sourcing of components.
• Car production up 5.8%, engine production up 4.9% on 2010 but
commercial vehicle production down 2.3%.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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A place in the global market
• Large majority of UK vehicle assembly capacity owned by nonBritish companies.
• Focus on quality, flexibility and emerging technologies and markets.
• New growth technologies – electric vehicles, low-carbon energy
efficient engines, new powertrains, instrumentation and controls.
• Significant focus on increasing purchasing sourced from UK.
• Unique global talent and resource in, automotive academia,
independent design engineering, motorsport and formula motor
racing - closely linked to mainsteam automotive manufacturing.
• UK remains 4th largest vehicle manufacturer in Europe.
• High proportion of automotive production continues to be exported.
• Vehicle and engine production increasing in both 2010 and 2011
• Exports continue to increase – 83.7% car, 57.7% commercial
vehicle and 70.2% engine production exported.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Climate Change and Emissions
• Post Durban 2011 – increased European focus on climate change
and air quality inevitable.
• Strong UK government focus on e-mobility but government is
technology neutral.
• Transition to ultra low carbon vehicles is high priority.
• SMMT’s publication of CO2 Report tracks further reductions in CO2
and emission – with further improvements anticipated.
• Several UK cities installing charging points and SMMT EV Group
supporting emerging technical and standards agenda in Europe.
• Introduction of Euro 6 emission standard for heavy commercial
vehicles significant challenge for industry.
• Emissions in 2011 fell by 4.2% to 138.1g/km average – down 23%
since 2000.
• Diesel and AFVs take 50.6% and 1.3% of market respectively in
2011. EV registrations 1,098 units.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Government and Industry Working Together
• Automotive Council set up in December 2009.
• Effective collaboration to identify challenges and stimulate growth.
• Sub groups for Supply Chain and Technology focus
• Publication of: Commodities Roadmap and Technology Roadmap
• Meet the Buyer events develop local UK sourcing opportunities.
• Technology Strategy Board (TSB) and Office for Low Emission
Vehicles (OLEV) coordinating R&D funding spend to best
advantage.
• Low Carbon Vehicle Innovation and Public procurement
Programmes launched
• Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
coordinating academic research and linkage with industry.
• SEMTA and Skills Academy - responding to increased demand for
engineering skills through apprenticeships, graduate programmes
and staff training courses.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Research & Development in the UK
• UK government introducing beneficial tax changes and incentives
to support manufacturing R&D.
• Development of wide range of low carbon vehicle, associated
technologies and infrastructure.
• R&D in UK automotive is over £1.5bn per annum increasing 9%
year on year.
• World class universities linked to industry creating inward
investment opportunities.
• Low CO2 engine technology has led to significant new VM
investment.
• UK is aiming to be global centre of excellence for low carbon and
high value technologies.
• EV investment, research, development and production in UK at an
increasing level
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK supply chain
• Around 2,350 UK companies regard themselves as ‘automotive’
suppliers, employing around 82,000 people – SMMT Automotive
Industry Finder database
• About 80% of all component types required for vehicle assembly
operations can be procured from UK suppliers but two thirds in
value of OEM requirement is imported.
• The UK automotive supply chain estimated to be £7.4bn per
annum, typically generates further £4.5 - £5bn of added value
annually.
• Automotive Council Supply Chain Group survey and report
published – sourcing roadmap.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Electric, Ultra Low Carbon and Alternatively Fuelled Vehicles
• UK Government policy suite to encourage early market adoption.
• £300 million Plug In Car and Plug In Van grants.
• Recent move towards hydrogen with UKH2Mobility initiative.
• Third round of Green Bus Fund announced – 526 hybrid-electric
and 16 all electric buses purchased under scheme.
• £8 million Green Truck Fund for low emission HGVs.
• Government initiative to encourage 8000 charging points by 2013 –
2500 installed as at October 2011
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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A European perspective
• Close involvement with ACEA, CLEPA and FIGIEFA to influence
European Commission agenda.
• Development and harmonisation of technical standards and
regulations continues apace with e-mobility, safety and security.
• Close liaison with UK Department of Transport to influence UNECE
WP29.
• Whole Vehicle Type Approval, Harmonised Light Vehicle Testing, EU
Noise Limits are challenging for industry.
• Europe still has significant economic growth, sovereign debt and
overcapacity issues to resolve.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Why Inward Investors Choose the UK
•
Proven industry capability.
•
In EU / outside Euro / Internationally aware /
globally connected / politically stable
•
English speaking, flexible and skilled labour
force.
•
Extensive, sophisticated & established
vehicle and components manufacturing
cluster.
•
World-leading hub of innovation and R&D.
•
Strength and direction of the Automotive
Council and Government support for
automotive R&D and manufacturing.
•
World leader in the development,
demonstration, manufacture and use of ultralow carbon automotive technology.
BMW Mini
Jaguar C-X75 Prototype
now to go into production
The UK is leading the change for new transport low carbon
technologies and reducing production and usage emissions.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Supplementary information on UK Auto Sector
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited
71 Great Peter Street London SW1P 2BN
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
Key elements of the sector
• Strong independent design engineering and testing base.
• Significant foreign manufacturing investment and R&D investment /
spend.
• Efficient manufacture and high export ratios of both volume and
premium / niche vehicles.
• Strong powertrain sector with technological innovation and scale.
• Low carbon technology and electric vehicle development and
manufacture, with strong government support.
• Comprehensive OEM aftermarket component manufacture,
distribution, service and repair capacity.
• In depth HE academic study & research and FE sector training.
• Highly sophisticated retail and distribution logistics import / export
services.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Key issues for the UK automotive industry
• Economic crisis in Europe, alongside market decline /
overcapacity in some markets.
• Sustainable Government support? Problems with suppliers’
access to finance.
• Low cost economy countries / High growth markets – both
opportunity and competitive threats.
• Local supply chain fragmented - erosion “hollowing out”/
overseas head office decision making.
• Some SMEs lack global trade awareness / global
competitiveness / skills and training.
• Maintaining manufacturing efficiency, investment in UK based
design engineering, research and development.
• Environmental / Low carbon legislation, Alternative fuels, ICE
hybrids, Electric vehicles.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Key UK technology opportunities
• Build and retain capacity in “sticky” technologies , ie:
– Energy storage and management
– Electric motors and power electronics
– Lightweight technologies
– CO2 and emissions reduction technology
• Other key technologies in which UK has potential:
– In-vehicle communications and management systems,
driver communications; congestion warning systems;
navigation; telematics.
– Materials; composites and alternative materials / jointing
technology
– Environmental protection / emissions
– Rapid prototyping and manufacturing process improvement.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Market Overview - 1
• 31 key vehicle manufacturing sites: seven volume passenger car,
11 commercial vehicle, bus, coach and taxi manufacturers.
• Global base for engine manufacture - over 2.5m. in 2011.
• 19 of the world’s top 20 industry suppliers and 7 global volume
vehicle manufacturers located in UK.
• Motor sport cluster for development and manufacture: eight F1
teams supported by >300 specialist motorsport companies.
• Many foreign vehicle manufacturers now have UK-based R&D
centres: Nissan at Cranfield; Ford at Dunton; SAIC at Longbridge;
Changan at Nottingham; TATA at Warwick. – and Jaguar-Land
Rover
• Creation of UK Automotive Council – framework for collaboration
with Government to improve the UK investment offer and
positioning of UK as centre for ultra low carbon development.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Market Overview - 2
• Majority of UK automotive manufacturing foreign-owned.
• Mature market, 4th largest car producer in EU*.
• Exports average >£25 billion annually, over 10% of UK exports.
• 2011 car production 1.34mn, up from 1.27m in 2010, a 5.5%
increase; exports increased from 75% in 2010 to 83.7% in 2011.
• Commercial vehicle production consistently > 200,000 between
2004-8, but reduced to 90,000 in 2009 (not supported by
scrappage scheme). 2010 production back to c123,000, with
exports c70% but 2011 saw further 2.3% reduction to 120,000 units
with exports reducing to 69,000 units being 57.7% of production.
• UK had fourth highest R&D spend in Europe at over £1.5 billion
p.a.
* Source OICA
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Market Overview - 3
SMMT 12th Annual Sustainability Report published 2011, with 18
signatory companies - across the broader industry, showed year
on year:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Manufacturing turnover up 20% to £49bn.
Output up 27.8%, returning to pre-recession volumes.
Number of vehicles exported up 31%, totalling £29bn in value.
Energy use per vehicle produced down 8%.
Manufacturing CO2 emissions down 10.5% per vehicle produced.
Manufacturing waste to landfill produced per vehicle down 8%.
New automotive apprenticeships up 9% adding to the 737,000 jobs
dependent on the sector.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Automotive Council – www.automotivecouncil.co.uk
A very powerful industry and government partnership
Has helped to transform automotive business environment to provide a more
compelling investment proposition for related industries:
•
Expanding technology roadmaps for low carbon vehicles and fuels, to
help promote the UK as a strong candidate to develop these and other
technologies;
•
Developing commodities roadmap helping to develop a stronger and
more competitive automotive supply chain;
•
Providing a very strong public voice for the industry to support the value
of the industry to the UK and to global partners;
•
Ensuring high level, strategic, continuous conversation between
government and the automotive industry in the UK.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Production
Restructuring, Rebirth, Recession, Recovery
SMMT Production Outlook 20112- 16
1.8
Vehicle Production in Millions
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
'00
'01
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
Years
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Long-term commitment to UK – major announcements in 2010-11
•
BMW: £500m investment across all 3 UK facilities for the 3rd generation MINI; expansion of
range to include Coupe and Roadster Minis
•
Ford: 5 year £1.5bn investment in engineering and manufacturing facilities.
•
GM: next generation Vivaro confirmed for Vauxhall’s Luton plant from 2013/4.
•
Honda: commitment to new Civic and CRV, following total £1.4bn investment at Swindon.
•
Nissan: £420m investment to make LEAF and batteries; £192m investment for new Qashqai
•
Tata JLR: retaining three vehicle assembly sites, build new engine factory, widen product range,
creating >2,000 new jobs; >£2bn of supply contracts for the Range Rover Evoque; £490mn
investment for C-X75 hybrid supercar
•
Tata: establishment and expansion of European Technical Centre.
•
Aston Martin: Cygnet production to create 150 new jobs; Rapide production moving to Gaydon
from Austria.
•
McLaren: MP4-12C to be produced in Woking.
•
SAIC MG: MG6 GT to be designed engineered and assembled in Longbridge.
•
Optare: new 1,200 capacity bus manufacturing facility in Yorkshire..
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Changing Dynamics of UK Car Sector
Demise of the old UK ‘Big 3’ - Growth of Japanese & BMW
2500
Others
BMW
Honda
UK Vehicle Production in Thousands
2000
Toyota
Nissan
Land Rover
1500
Jaguar
Vauxhall
Peugeot
1000
Ford
Rover
500
0
1972
1982
1999
2006
2007
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
2008
2009
2010
2011
PAGE 23
UK vehicle manufacturers’ product ranges
VOLUME CARS
• BMW - Mini range, incl. Clubman, Coupe and Roadster
• Honda - Civic, CR-V & Jazz
• Jaguar – XJ, XK XF
• Land Rover - Defender, Discovery, Freelander, Range
Rover, Range Rover Sport & Evoque
• Nissan – Note, Qashqai & Juke (and Leaf electric from
2013)
• Toyota - Auris, Auris Hybrid & Avensis
• Vauxhall – Astra
PRESTIGE / NICHE LOW VOLUME CARS
• Aston Martin - DB9, Vantage, Virage, Cygnet
• Bentley – Continental, Mulsanne
• Caterham - Classic, Super 7
• Ginetta - F400, G50EV & G50R road cars & G20,
G40, G40 Junior, G50 & Zytek race cars
• Lotus - Elise, Evora, Exige ; new Elan, Elise & Esprit
• McLaren Automotive MP4-12C sports car (from
2011)
• Morgan – Supersports, 4/4 Sport, 4 seater,
Plus4, Roadster & Roadster Sport sports cars
• Rolls Royce - Phantom & Ghost
• SAIC - MG6 saloon
COMMERCIAL
• Alexander Dennis - buses & coaches
• Dennis Eagle - refuse trucks
• Ford - Transit van, Transit Minibus
• Vauxhall – Vivaro van and minibus, plus Renault Trafic
versions
• Leyland Trucks - trucks
• London Taxis Int - TX4 taxi and hydrogen fuel cell
demonstrator
• Optare - single & double deck buses
• Wrightbus - buses
FORMULA 1
• McLaren racing
• Mercedes F1 - formerly Brawn
• Red Bull
• Williams F1
• Renault F1
• Force India
• Lotus F1
• Virgin Racing
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Engine manufacture
2.5mn. engines manufactured in 2011 (up 4.9% from 2010).
Key manufacturing plants include:
• Ford, Dagenham & Bridgend (P&D) 1,701,787
• BMW, Hams Hall (P)
• Honda, Swindon (P&D)
433,689
97,368
• Toyota, Deeside (P)
127,724
• Nissan, Sunderland (P)
135,958
• VW, (Bentley) Crewe(P)
7,528
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Design and Engineering Skills
• Product planning and development.
• Vehicle conceptualisation and styling.
• Rapid prototyping services.
• Manufacturing engineering/feasibility.
• Structural analysis & vehicle simulation.
• Vehicle body, chassis, powertrain & trim.
• Vehicle component development.
• Electrical and electronics, chip designing.
• Engine engineering.
• Testing and validation, homologation.
• Special training packages (for CAE, CAM).
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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UK Car Production
• Car output in 2011 increased 5.8% to 1,343,810 (2010 - 1,270,444)
• Nissan highest production at 480.485 – increase of 13.5% on 2010
• Export market at record high - 83.7% of production
2000000
90%
1800000
80%
1600000
1400000
70%
1200000
1000000
60%
800000
50%
600000
400000
40%
200000
0
30%
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
PAGE 27
UK Commercial Vehicle Production
• 2011 production reduced by 2.3% at 120,189 vehicles (2010 - 123,019)
• Vauxhall, IBC and Ford = 82.6% of all CV production
• Export market percentage reduces to 57.7% of production (2010 - 69.5%)
250000
80%
75%
200000
70%
65%
150000
60%
55%
100000
50%
45%
50000
40%
35%
0
30%
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
PAGE 28
Vehicle production – rolling year totals at April 2012
1800
Total
Total
Export
Export
250
1600
200
1200
'000s
'000s
1400
150
1000
100
800
600
50
Car production rolling year total
CV production rolling year total
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Production Exports / Registration Imports
The UK increasingly manufactures cars to export and imports cars to drive
% of vehicle production and registrations
83.7% production exported - 87.2% registrations imported
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
Exports
Imports
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
PAGE 30
UK New Car Registrations
• New car demand totalled 1,94mn. units in 2011, down 4.4% on
2010, but ahead of the 1.92mn. forecast.
• The Ford Fiesta was the best selling new car in 2011, VW Golf the
best selling diesel model. The Supermini segment remains the
largest in the UK, with a market share almost unchanged on 2010
at 36.3%. The Executive, Luxury Saloon and Dual Purpose
segments all recorded growth in registrations in 2011.
• Diesel and alternatively fuelled cars both took record market
shares over the year.
• Average new car CO2 emissions fell to a new low of 138.1g/km in
2011, down 4.2% on the 2010 level.
• The market is forecast to be broadly stable in 2012, with firmer
recovery expected in 2013.
• Diesel and alternatively-fuelled cars took record shares in 2011
with diesel volumes surpassing petrol volumes for the first time.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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New Car Registrations
Monthly new car registrations, 2010 and 2011
SIS
2010
Annual new car registrations, 2004 to 2013
Actual
2011
400000
2,600,000
350000
2,500,000
300000
Forecast @Sept '11
2,400,000
250000
2,300,000
200000
2,200,000
150000
2,100,000
100000
2,000,000
50000
1,900,000
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
PAGE 32
Distribution of new car market by mpg 2004 and 2011
2011
2004
> 70 mpg (0%)
> 70 mpg (3%)
55 to 70 mpg (7%)
55 to 70 mpg (35%)
50 to 55 mpg (10%)
50 to 55 mpg (20%)
45 to 50 mpg (23%)
45 to 50 mpg (17%)
35 to 45 mpg (41%)
35 to 45 mpg (21%)
< 35 mpg (19%)
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
< 35 mpg (4%)
PAGE 33
Average new car miles per gallon (mpg) and CO2 g/km,
2004 to 2011
CO2 (right axis)
56
175
54
170
52
165
50
160
48
155
46
150
44
145
42
140
40
CO2 g/km
MPG
MPG (left axis)
135
04
05
06
07
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
08
09
10
11
PAGE 34
Diesel share of the UK new car market, 2004 to 2013
Actual
Forecast at Sept '11
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
04
05
06
07
08
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
09
10
11
12
13
PAGE 35
April 2012: AFV and EV registrations data
Market Sector
Market Sector
Line
CAR GRANT SCHEME
CARS
Month End
Year To Date Month End Last Year To Date
Year
Last Year
128
488
174
438
DIESEL/ELECTRIC
HYBRIDS
103
299
0
0
OTHERS
189
700
113
335
PETROL/ELECTRI
C HYBRIDS
1,519
8,843
1,693
8,945
PLUG-IN HYBRID
0
0
0
3
PURE EV
92
430
179
450
RANGE
EXTENDER
39
64
0
0
1,942
10,336
1,985
9,733
CARS
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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April 2012: AFV and EV registrations data
April
Vehicle
Category
Total pure
electric
Plug-In Car
Grant eligible
Total
petrol/electric
hybrid
Alternatively
fuelled
vehicles
Year-to-date
2012
2011
% Change
2012
2011
% Change
92
179
-48.6
430
450
-4.4
128
174
-26.4
488
438
11.4
1,519
1,693
-10.3
8,843
8,945
-1.1
189
113
67.3
700
335
109.0
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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2011 - Buoyant year for van and truck market
•
•
•
•
Truck registrations up 42,944 units (24.6%) for the full year.
Vans to 3.5t registrations up 16.7% to 260,153 in 2011.
For trucks >6t, registrations for 2011 were 37,410.
The very recent trend for growth in two-axle rigids above 6t
strengthened markedly. Growth rates ranged from 30 to 90% across the
various weight segments for these trucks.
• Until very recently these sectors had lagged behind what was an artic
and multi-axle rigid led recovery.
• Better than expected trend in registration volumes faces significant
challenges just to hold steady over 2012. It may be that market specific
factors could be more supportive than the meagre rate of economic
growth envisaged for this year.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
PAGE 38
Van and truck registrations
- rolling year trends Dec 2007 to date
LCV TO 3.5 (LH Axis)
ARTIC (RH Axis)
rolling year registration totals
RIGID (RH Axis)
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Bus and coach market 2011
• 2011 was a challenging year for the bus and coach sector - down
12.8% for the year.
• Registrations of purpose-built buses and coaches has shown
most resilience to challenging market and grew 5.1% in 2011 but:
•
•
Bus registrations finished the year 13.6% down.
Coach volumes dropped 7.1% over the 12-month period.
• The lighter and converted end of the market struggled to maintain
momentum.
• 2012 is set to be a testing year, but government incentives and
operator desires to capitalise on fuel efficient technologies should
provide much-needed stimulus to the market.”
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
PAGE 40
Big buses and coaches –
rolling year registrations December 2006 to December 2011
Big buses 8.5t gvw and over and coaches 16t gvw and over
All buses over 8.5t gvw - left hand scale
rolling year registration totals
Coaches over 16t gvw - right hand scale
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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History and levels of Euro standards for cars
Euro
Standards
Entry into force (new
Emission limits
type approvals)
New car types
All new cars
Petrol NOx
Diesel NOx
Diesel PM
Euro 0
1 Oct '91
1 Oct '93
1000 mg/km
1600 mg/km
(no limit)
Euro 1
1 Jul '92
31 Dec '92
490 mg/km
780 mg/km
140 mg/km
Euro 2
1 Jan '96
1 Jan '97
250 mg/km
730 mg/km
100 mg/km
Euro 3
1 Jan '00
1 Jan '01
150 mg/km
500 mg/km
50 mg/km
Euro 4
1 Jan '05
1 Jan '06
80 mg/km
250 mg/km
25 mg/km
Euro 5
1 Sep '09
1 Jan '11
60 mg/km
180 mg/km
5 mg/km
Euro 6
1 Sep '14
1 Sep '15
60 mg/km
80 mg/km
5 mg/km
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
PAGE 42
Making significant progress, but challenges ahead
• UK average new car CO2 – 138.1g/km in 2011.
• Continuous improvement, pace picked up in last 4 years.
Average new car CO2 – 1997-2011 (SMMT)
130
138.1
140
144.2
149.5
150
158.0
164.9
04
Year
167.2
171.4
03
160
169.4
172.1
174.2
181.0
185.0
188.4
170
177.6
CO2 g/km
180
189.8
190
120
97
98
99
00
01
02
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06
07
08
09
10
11
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Influences on CO2 emissions
Technological measures to deliver lower CO2–emitting vehicles
•
•
•
•
Improvements in internal combustion engine (ICE).
Development of alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFV).
Other influences – aerodynamics, light weighting, efficient tyres etc.
Non-test cycle measures, eg gear shift indicators and satellite navigation
devices.
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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2011: A break-through year – breaking 140g/km
•
•
•
•
Diesel cars outsell petrol (diesels 15-20% lower CO2 emitting).
Alternatively fuelled cars break 25,000 registrations.
‘Mainstream’ electric vehicles on sale.
All segments post reductions in average CO2 emissions.
Diesel share by segment (SMMT)
2000
2010
Registrations of AFVs (SMMT)
2011
100%
90%
Petrol/alcohol
Petrol/electric
Petrol/gas
Diesel/electric
New car registrations
30,000
80%
70%
Diesel share
Electric
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
10%
5,000
0%
0
00
Segment
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Year
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Distribution of the new car market by CO2
• Shift into lower CO2 emitting vehicles.
• 46.8% of the market below 130g/km and 3.4% below 100g/km,
compared with 0.9% and 0% in 2000.
New car market by CO2 bands (SMMT)
12%
2000
2010
2011
10%
Market share
8%
6%
4%
2%
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
sub 100
0%
g/km
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
PAGE 46
Distribution of the new car market by VED bands
• ‘E’ band most populated in 2011, was ‘G’ band in 2000.
• 3.4% of the market in ‘A’ band in 2011, was 0.0% in 2000.
• Just 0.6% of market in top band in 2011, was 4.8% in 2000.
New car market by VED bands (SMMT)
2011
A (Upto 100)
B (101-110)
C (111-120)
D (121-130)
2010
E (131-140)
F (141-150)
G (151-165)
2007
H (166-175)
I (176-185)
J (186-200)
2000
K (201-225)
L (226-255)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Market share
70%
80%
90%
100%
M (Over 255)
Note all data split by current 13 band VED system
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Light commercial vehicle (LCV) performance
• SMMT developing LCV CO2 database.
• UK average new LCV CO2 – estimated to be 199.2g/km in 2011.
• LCV face EU CO2 targets – 175g/km in 2014-17, 147g/km by 2020.
Average UK new car and LCV market distribution by CO2 – 2011 (SMMT)
16%
LCVs
Cars
14%
12%
Market share
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
sub 100
0%
g/km
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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Making real world improvements
• Total CO2 from all cars in use down.
– 2010 down 10.2% on 2000 and 3.3% on 2009.
• Faster fleet replacement aids CO2 reductions from all cars in use.
CO2 emissions from all cars in use (DECC)
CO2
Parc
Distance travelled
115
Index, 2000 = 100
110
105
100
95
90
85
00
01
02
03
04
05
Year
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07
08
09
10
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Challenges ahead
• EU new car CO2 targets – 130g/km in 2012-15, 95g/km by 2020.
• Market acceptance of ultra-low carbon vehicles, especially AFVs.
• Integrated approach needed to support shift to lower carbon fleet.
Average UK new car and car in use CO2 , and pan EU targets to 2020 (SMMT/EU)
200
189.8
CO2g/km
175
181.0
169.3
150
138.1
125
130
100
95
75
Average car in use 1997 UK new car 2000 UK new car 2011 UK new car 2012-15 EU new 2020 EU new car
2010
car target
target
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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High Level Technology Roadmap - CARS
OEMs share a common view
(Individual manufacturers will prioritise certain technologies to fit with brand values)
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
PAGE 51
Low carbon Commercial Vehicle & Off-highway roadmap has parallel
technology streams depending on duty cycle
2020
2010
2030
2040
2050
Commercial/Off-Highway EV’s
Niche EVs
H2 infrastructure
Fuel cell vehicles
Fuel Cell APUs
Demos
Plug in hybrid
Full hybrid
Micro/Mild hybrid
Technology Roadmap
Heavy Duty Cycles
Biofuels
Advanced thermodynamic cycles
Sustainable liquid/gaseous fuels
Powertrain efficiency improvements/ancillary electrification
Intelligent vehicles logistics – operational efficiency (On & Off-highway)
Drivers
Advanced highway vehicle aerodynamics/selective lightweighting
CO2 reductions limited by
air quality regulations
Possible HD/MD
LD Van CO2
CO2 Regulation
Regulation
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
“Zero” Air
Quality Impact
Light Duty Cycles
Waste heat recovery
Medium Duty Cycles
IC Engine efficiency improvements
Air Quality Improvements
UK CO2
Target
CO2 and GHG reduction
52
PAGE 52
Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited
71 Great Peter Street London SW1P 2BN
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED